Who Needs Progressive Taxation?
Apparently not the Swiss residents of the canton of Schaffhausen, in the northern part of Switzerland. Schaffhausen is in fact moving to a system of “degressive” taxation. That’s right, lower tax rates for the rich:
Beginning in January 2004, Schaffhausen will replace its system of increasing marginal tax rates on income with a system of degressive marginal rates. The cantonal tax rate will be set at just under 8 percent for income of SFr 100,000. It will rise to a peak of 11.5 percent for income between SFr 600,000 and SFr 800,000. Thereafter, the marginal rate declines with each incremental chunk of income: 10 percent at SFr 1,300,000; 8 percent at SFr 3,000,000; and just over 6 percent for income more than SFr 10,000,000. This is a true incentive-based tax system–the larger one’s income, the lower one’s marginal rate.
Declining marginal tax rates will also apply to wealth taxes, further enhancing the degressivity of cantonal taxes.
Schaffhausen has its own legislative parliament, which contains eighty deputies representing all regions within the canton. Eight political parties compete for these seats. Evidently Schaffhausen’s voters support a tax cut that gives the greatest benefits to the richest people. They believe that attracting wealthy individuals to reside in their midst is good for everyone.
Here is the full story. I don’t expect to have any data on this soon, but I am pleased to see the experiment. One question, of course, is whether cross-canton migration effects (as opposed to labor supply effects) are beneficial for Switzerland as a whole, or just for Schaffhausen. It does not create aggregate value to shuffle rich people from one canton to another. In any case I am amused to see an idea that finally weakens Alvin Rabushka’s loyalty to the flat tax.
Addendum: I am embarrassed to admit that co-blogger Alex tells me he posted on this topic some time ago, read his coverage as well.
The power of Glenn Reynolds and Mickey Kaus
Check out this image, from ProfessorBainbridge.com. It shows how many hits you get from being picked up by the biggest blogs, such as Instapundit and Kausfiles.
Researchers find a key gene for human intelligence
Read the ever-impressive Randall Parker over at Futurepundit.com. Here is a quotation from one of his links:
Lahn and his colleagues found that the ASPM gene showed clear evidence of changes accelerated by evolutionary pressure in the lineage leading to humans, and the acceleration is most prominent in recent human evolution after humans parted way from chimpanzees.
“In our work, we have looked at evolution of a large number of genes, and in the vast number of cases, we see only weak signatures of adaptive changes,” said Lahn. “So, I was quite surprised to see that this one gene shows such strong and unambiguous signatures of adaptive evolution – more so than most other genes we’ve studied.”
By contrast, the researchers’ analyses of the ASPM gene in the more primitive monkeys and in cows, sheep, cats, dogs, mice and rats, showed no accelerated evolutionary change. “The fact that we see this accelerated evolution of ASPM specifically in the primate lineage leading to humans, and not in these other mammals, makes a good case that the human lineage is special,” said Lahn.
The bottom line: The plausibility of the view that human beings are special has just gone up.
Parker is one of the most rigorous and versatile writers in the blogosphere, here is his recent account of our greater ability to predict earthquakes.
Addendum: Read this article on exactly why monkeys have trouble with human language.
How to be a good Treasury Secretary
Read Brad DeLong on how Paul O’Neill could have been, but wasn’t, a good Secretary of the Treasury.
Would potential immortals be risk-averse?
Anti-aging drugs appear closer on the horizon, but how would a fountain of youth change our behavior? Lawrence Solum asks whether potential immortals would be afraid to ever put their lives at risk:
Given eternally long lives, the real issue concerns taking risks…So the question becomes, “Would it be rational to engage in regular low-risk behaviors (like daily walking), given that over the course of an eternal life, death would be the almost certain consequence?” One might imagine that in the beginning, such behaviors would continue, but that over time one would begin to realize that the odds were catching up with friends, family, and co-workers. Would the loss of eternal life really be a greater cost than the loss of the current human span of several decades? If the answer to this question were yes, then perhaps most humans would began to avoid risk. A very cautious approach to life might add tens of thousands of years to one’s anticipated life span. I have an image of fine restaraunts serving only minced food to avoid the small (but statistically significant) risk of choking. No roller-skating, no skiing, no contact sports, no flying on airplances, no boating, no swimming. Would the eternal life lived to minimize risk be a recognizably human life?
Update: An astute reader notes that in contemporary vampire fiction, ancient vampires are generally potrayed as extremely risk averse–employing proxies when personal action in accord with their conception of the good (the bad?) would involve a significant risk to their immortality.
A related question is whether immortals would be less ambitious, since they might always feel they could accomplish their goals in a more distant future. As long as we are citing fiction, I recall seeing a television show about immortal beings. They were content to remain homeless and spent most of their time sitting around a campfire and talking. They accumulated few possessions. They never feared such a course of action would lead to death, and they always held the option of trying to do more.
Solum’s query was prompted by a Volokh Conspiracy post of mine. I asked the different question of whether an immortal is necessarily a murderer with a probability approaching one, given the recurring risk of accidents.
Addendum: Read the commentary of Randall Parker.
Why do you share?
Sometimes you share just to shut people up:
Stevens [the researcher] placed chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) or squirrel monkeys (Saimiri boliviensis) in a cage and provided them with a meal of fruit. In an adjoining cage was a hungry member of the same species.
The primates rarely passed food through the cage to their hungry mate next door. But if the partition was opened – giving the hungry animal the chance to beg, steal or fight for food – sharing was common.
It is analogous to a parent buying a child a toy just to shut them up, says Stevens. “It’s a selfish way to stop the constant pestering,” he says.
Intriguingly, hungry chimps harassed their neighbour more when the food was cut into small chunks. This could reflect the fact that a beggar is more likely to get a handout if it doesn’t seriously deplete the donor’s stash.
This form of ‘strategic begging’ could help scroungers find success by setting their sights low, Stevens speculates. “It’s like a kid saying: ‘Can I have four cookies? Ok, how about one?’,” he says. Likewise, most street-corner beggars ask passers-by for nothing more than their small change.
Here is the full story. Right now the link to the original paper is not working.
What have international capital flows brought us?
Brad DeLong writes:
It is not possible for a card-carrying neoliberal like me to wish for any but the most minor of controls to curb the most speculative of capital flows. Capital markets can get the allocation of investment badly wrong, but governments are likely to get it even worse, and the incentives to corrupt bureaucrats do need to be kept as low as possible. But the hope for a repetition of the late nineteenth-century experience, in which core investors’ money gave peripheral economies the priceless gift of cutting decades off the time needed for successful economic development, has–so far–proved vain.
The full post — worth reading — is a very thoughtful and indeed moving elegy to the nineteenth century. DeLong points out that today a good deal of international capital flows today to the United States, rather than to the poorer countries.
Nonetheless I am more optimistic about the contemporary potential for international capital movements to spur growth. Singapore moved from a run-down port to a wealthy country in a few decades, and the transition was driven largely by foreign investment. Malaysia has faced a rockier road but by historical standards must be judged a success. Most of Africa has stood still or regressed, but clearly domestic policies are the major culprit. The more serious counterexamples have been in the Latin countries, many of which have received significant foreign direct investment, yet without coming close to eliminating poverty.
When it comes to China, we can see the glass as either half empty or half full:
China’s scorecard for attracting foreign investment reads like this: Trying hard, doing well, but could do even better. That is the assessment of a just-published OECD report, Investment Policy Review of China — Progress and Reform Challenges. In 2002, China became the world’s largest recipient of total foreign direct investment (FDI), attracting nearly $53 billion. That performance comes thanks to China’s progress on structural reforms, its accession to the World Trade Organization, and efforts to bring regulations in line with international standards.
So is China a counterexample to Brad’s claim? It depends how we count. It is only one country but of course over a billion people.
It also depends how we understand China. Liberalization has brought foreign investment, which has made its “low-wage-but-much-higher-than-before-wage” factories possible. My post immediately below cites research that finds much of the Chinese progress as coming from the shift of labor out of agriculture. This does not mean that capital flows had no role, since they helped make such a shift possible. We also should distinguish between total foreign investment and the per capita measure: “At $30 per capita, China receives less FDI than other major developing countries, such as Brazil with $195 per capita.” But of course foreign capital flows, and Chinese progress, have been concentrated in just a few regions of China.
What is the lesson? Foreign direct investment needs good domestic policies to translate into significantly higher living standards. When such policies are in place, it is amazing how far foreign direct investment can go. Even small per capita amounts of FDI can have a large and positive impact on individuals’ lives. Foreign capital flows have not lost their magic, but they will not lift all boats either.
How fast did China grow?
From 1978 to 1998 China grew a measured average of 8.0 percent a year, a breathtaking performance. But how fast did the country really grow? And how much did Chinese productivity improve?
Alwyn Young, at the University of Chicago, turned his attention to these questions in his recent “Gold Into Base Medals: Productivity Growth in the People’s Republic of China during the Reform Period,” in the December 2003 Journal of Political Economy. Here is an earlier, on-line version of the paper. Young, who is renowned for his thoroughness and care with data, found the following:
1. Chinese enterprises systematically underreport inflation.
2. In the non-agricultural sector, such underreporting accounts for 2.5 percent growth per year.
3. The main drivers of Chinese growth have been rising economic participation rates, improvements in educational attainment, and the movement of labor out of agriculture.
4. Labor and total factor productivity improvements, in the non-agricultural sector, are 2.6 and 1.4 percent respectively.
The bottom line: The Chinese economy has indeed done well. But once we cut through the mysteries of the numbers, we find an explicable reality. The Chinese growth experience is in reality comprised of “reasonable and comprehensible” numbers, rather than miracles. Young even wonders if the Chinese could not have done better than they did. On one hand, most economies would be delighted with a sustained 2.6 percent rate of labor productivity growth. But on the other hand, China has been moving away from a centrally planned economy. We might have expected even larger productivity boosts, given the incentive benefits of economic freedom. We also can interpret the figures as showing that China has enduring problems, and has not moved as far away from central planning as we might wish.
Dismal Democrats on free trade
The Democratic candidates are now using the phrase “free trade” as a prima facie insult. So much for lip service, here is one account, guaranteed to make you miss Bill Clinton.
How do consumer reviews affect book sales?
Judith Chevalier and Dina Mayzlin have studied the impact of consumer reviews of books on word of mouth and subsequent sales, here is their NBER working paper, here is another draft. They find the following:
1. Most consumer reviews of books on Amazon.com and Barnesandnoble.com are very positive.
2. The reviews at Amazon are longer and more extensive. They are also more critical on average.
3. Better reviews on one site boost relative sales. The use of two sites gives us a controlled experiment to determine that word of mouth does indeed help authors rather than being a mere side effect of higher sales.
4. A bad review hurts you more than a good review helps you.
5. It remains to be seen whether allowing consumer reviews increases aggregate sales or simply shifts around sales to more suitable titles. Even a shifting affect, however, may increase consumer loyalty to the on-line site. If you know that Amazon helps you discover good books, you may be more likely to buy from Amazon.
My advice: I don’t put much stock in how favorable the Amazon reviews are, whether I am buying books, movies, or music. (I am most likely to buy music from Amazon.) This well-known example is one reason to distrust the reviews, although I think bad taste is more common than masquerades. Instead I look at how many reviews have been generated. I take this as a kind of sufficient statistic for how much passion the item has generated. Since I am at the tails of just about any distribution of taste, and since most cultural products disappoint in any case, look for something that creates a spark in people. I then see some chance of finding a product that I truly love. This advice will sometimes steer you wrong, but a little added intelligence will allow you to make the necessary adjustments.
By the way, there is now a whole blog, www.corante.com/many on how collaborative web enterprises shape society. Clay Shirky writes for it regularly, it is highly recommended.
Thanks to Eric Crampton for the pointer to the article.
Dreaming
I love restaurant dining, as much for the anticipation of culinary bedazzlement as the actuality. To me, the best part of any meal is opening the menu. At that point, anything is possible; nothing’s been overcooked, underseasoned, or otherwise ruined in the kitchen.
From Leslie Brenner’s American Appetite: The Coming of Age of a Cuisine.
The life of a food taster
…professional-eater salaries run the gamut. Since most work in food science or product development, those who taste for a living can be entry-level employees earning between $30,000 and $60,000 or senior execs raking in six figures, according to industry insiders.
In any case, many live the good life in terms of what they get to try, like trained wine drinkers or Godiva’s [products].
But others, like taster Ann Hollingsworth, have tested somewhat less sumptuous foods – in her case, hotdogs and other meats for industry giants like McDonald’s and Sara Lee.
The workload sounds especially appealing:
Generally, tasters are only used for about an hour a day total – often only for a few minutes at a time.
“You can’t just sit down there for four or five hours at a time,” said Caporaso, who has run panels for companies like Baskin-Robbins, Pfizer (when it had a food division), Nestle Carnation and Lipton. “You get fatigued.” [This reminds me of similar arguments I have heard about teaching!]
To preserve her palate (and her stomach), Koen generally only tastes three different pieces of chocolate a day, usually when the company is developing a new product. She also samples competitors’ chocolates.
In some unusual instances Koen will have to taste 50 chocolate pieces a day: “After all that decadence, she usually takes a week-long respite from chocolate eating.”
Just one kind of taster does not suffice:
Food and beverage companies need two kinds of tasters before their products hit the market.
The professionals are either outside contractors or internal food scientists, chefs and product developers trained to analyze flavor intensity, sweetness or bitterness, texture and product consistency. In-house tasters are often used because of convenience, their experience with that food and company secrecy. But they can become biased, which is why some businesses call on outsiders to do some tasting.
Consumer tasters are members of the general public who evaluate whether they love or hate a product, after the professionals have fine-tuned the formula.
There is also such a thing as a super-taster [N.B. I consider myself an unpaid super-taster!]:
…a “super taster” [has] a particularly discerning palate. Super tasters have between twice and four times as many tastebuds on their tongues as the average person and are picky eaters, according to Caporaso.
“Sometimes the super tasters are a detriment because they’re picking up these little nuances in the product that the average consumer can’t detect,” he said.
Life as a supertaster can be especially tough. One individual was told he had the talent of a supertaster, but he declined to pursue the profession. He said he could not stand the idea of having to taste so many random foods, rather than just eating what he likes. Some tasters have had to sample birth control pills and dog food. Here is the full story.
Alex on blogging, writing, and teaching
The Washington Times interviews co-blogger Alex about what makes for a good blog, and how blogging can get students to write better. The article opens with Kevin Brancato, a George Mason University graduate student and the driving force behind www.truckandbarter.com. As the article points out, blogs are just starting to be used in teaching. Someday I will teach a course where each student is responsible for writing a daily blog. I will evaluate the students by grading the blogs, no other test, paper, or quiz. Usually when I make that sort of claim it means someday soon!
Are we getting happier over time?
The field of happiness studies has moved out of psychology and into economics. It is folk wisdom that money is no guarantee of happiness. And arguably it is happiness that we care about, not wealth. So rather than looking at aggregate wealth, an alternative research strategy asks people if they are happy. This may sound naive, but in fact people’s answers are correlated with their health, how much they smile, whether their friends rate them as happy, and information from brain scans. We should not so hastily dismiss questionnaire evidence about happiness.
Andrew Oswald, of the University of Warwick, is one of the leading researchers in this area. His home page offers a good range of readings in the area. One forthcoming paper of his, for the Journal of Public Economics, addresses the question of whether we are becoming happier or not. He finds the following:
1. Americans as a whole have not become happier over the last several decades.
2. American blacks have become happier over the last several decades.
3. American women have been the biggest happiness losers since the 1970s.
4. Being unemployed has a “happiness cost” of about $60,000 a year.
5. Being black has a “happiness cost” of about $30,000 a year. Both these figures can be interpreted in terms of a low happiness value for extra dollars, rather than a huge happiness penalty for being unemployed or black.
6. A lasting marriage is worth about $100,000 a year in terms of happiness.
7. Happiness is U-shaped with age, with the minimum coming at about 40. (Hey, wait a minute, I am 41 and happier than ever before!)
8. Relative income matters per se.
My take: I find least persuasive #1 and #7. Americans are happier as a whole because they are living longer and have access to much better medical care. Your chance of dying of a heart attack at age 50 is much lower than before. That being said, if you take a pre-selected group living under normal circumstances, they may not come across as much happier as their predecessors from earlier decades. So many of the benefits of the modern world come in the form of avoiding tragedies.
By the way, this excellent book review defends the role of the market in bringing us happiness.
A richer world also makes us happier by giving us better jobs. Read Oswald on how to find a job to make you happy. Here is his advice:
1. Work for a non-profit
2. Be a woman.
3. Be old (he suggests that your earlier failures tame your expectations with age).
4. Don’t get overqualified.
5. Avoid a place where the boss controls the pace of the work.
I’ve got #1 and #5 down to perfection, and I am working on #3.
Thanks to Mark Brady for directing my attention to the paper and the links.
Is risk-aversion bad for you?
It is bad for rats, or so it seems:
…new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science shows that caution can actually kill you. Sonia Cavigelli and Martha McClintock of the Department of Psychology and Institute for Mind and Biology at the University of Chicago found in a recent experiment that individuals who fear novelty–a condition scientists have named “neophobia”–are likelier to die at an earlier age than those who are unafraid of change. It is the first time, says Cavigelli, that a study has demonstrated that an emotional trait that shows up in infancy can shorten life span.
For this research, Cavigelli and McClintock followed the lives and fortunes of pairs of rat brothers for several years. The scientists chose their subjects by first establishing which of the rats were neophobic. To do this, they placed the young rats inside a bowl in a small room. Objects the rats hadn’t seen before–a rock, a metal box, and a plastic tunnel–were placed in each corner of the room. The rats the scientists deemed neophobic either stayed hunkered down in the bowl or left it only hesitantly, with hunched backs, stilted walks, and bristling fur. The rats who left the bowl quickly to explore the room and the various unfamiliar objects were dubbed neophilic.
And the results? These risk-averse rats showed a consistent pattern of stress throughout their lives and died at earlier ages. What does this mean for people?
A number of parallels exist between humans and their rat surrogates. Neophobia shows up in human infants as early as 14 months of age, and like the rats, fearful children have a faster and stronger hormonal response than children who are not afraid of new situations. It’s also been shown that if you are neophobic at a young age, you tend to remain that way throughout childhood. Cavigelli suggests, however, that individuals may develop strategies to avoid the negative effects of neophobia. “If you are a neophobic-type person, you might avoid any novel situations thereby minimizing that stress,” she says. Staying away from stressful situations could be a form of “self-medication.”…The wear and tear of stress hormones can cause neophobes to get sick more quickly, suggests Cavigelli. So if you know you’re a neophobe–and therefore more vulnerable to any bug going around–you might want to be seek medical intervention promptly in the case of illness.
Although it looks like the neophiles have an unfair advantage, they may not have it as good as it seems. In the experiment, Cavigelli and McClintock played God by controlling the environment of their subjects and essentially creating a safe universe where being brave didn’t get you into trouble. But real life, with its car accidents, plane crashes, and human predators does not always reward the fearless. Human neophiles might also have longer lives if we were all just rats in a cage.
The researchers suggest that it makes evolutionary sense for mothers to have emotionally diverse litters. In other words, there is an evolutionary reason why some but not all teenagers can act like such foolish idiots. See Slate.com for the full story.