Month: August 2008

Palin has an outside, straight talker, pro-reform, true blooded
American, take no prisoners image much as Perot did.  (A second point of comparison is Arnold Schwarznegger, with some obvious differences.)  And she has only begun to cultivate that image.  Do
you recall how much impact Perot had on the American people? 

Of
course if Perot actually had had the chance to be President, the
results probably would not have been pretty.  He would have been forced
to act like "just another politician," as has been the case with Arnold because in fact the job revolves around knowing how to govern. 

There is one biographical fact about Palin’s life that the critics
(Drum, DeLong, Yglesias, Klein, Sullivan and Kleiman are among the ones I read)
are hardly touching upon.  I mean her decision to have a Downs child
instead of an abortion.  This is the fact about her life and it will be viewed as such from now through November and perhaps beyond. 

If only for this reason, she will be seen as a candidate who stands on principle.  I don’t think the critics are sufficiently appreciating how tired the American people are of candidates who say one thing and do another and who abandon their principles at the first provocation.  This is a deep and very strong current and it runs through virtually every group of American political voters.  Because of her decision to have a Downs child, many voters will not view Sarah Palin in a cynical light, no matter what the critics say.  No story about firing a state trooper will break that seal.

In my jaded view, "politicians who break their word, violate their ideals, and do not follow through on their promises" is not one of the major problems in American politics.  In fact it’s often good that political promises are forgotten in the light of the realities.  So the American obsession with political promise-keeping does not resonate with me.  But the American people have been hungry for a "promise keeper, ideals believer" for decades and when was the last time they actually got one?

By the way, my mom’s first reaction to the nomination (hi mom!) was
that other mothers of "different" children (what exactly is the right word here?) would very much identify
with Palin and view her life as validating theirs and thus support her.

Go away and watch a Frank Capra movie and think about Palin again.  Larry Ribstein gets it.

I do recognize and indeed emphasize that this analysis requires that she is good on TV.  I give that p = 0.63.  I’ll also give p = 0.13 that she ends up off the ticket, but most of that chance comes from her deciding she needs to spend the time with her kids.

Addendum: The best argument against the pick is this, although it does not much revise my priors.

Around the blogosphere you will see many left-wing writers criticizing Palin for lack of experience.  Maybe this criticism is correct, but these commentators are falling into The Trap.  Most American voters do not themselves know much detail about foreign affairs and their vision of an experienced leader does not require such knowledge.  Was it demanded from Reagan?  Doesn’t everyone agree that Cheney and Rumsfeld knew plenty?  Rightly or wrongly, many American voters will view Palin’s stint as mayor of small town, her background in sports, her role in a beauty contest (yes), her trials raising teenage children, and her decision to stick with her priinciples and have a Downs Syndrome baby as all very valuable and relevant forms of experience.  The more the word "experience" is repeated, no matter what the context, the more it will hurt Obama.  Palin needs to appear confident and capable on TV and in the debates, but her ticket is not going to lose votes if she cannot properly spell Kyrgyzstan or for that matter place it on a map.

Addendum: Here is early response over at The Clinton Forum.

Trying to appear moderate is not always the best strategy for capturing votes during an election, reveals a new study. Extreme positions can build trust among an electorate, who value ideological commitment in times of uncertainty.

Here is the full story, with a hat tip to Eduardo Pegurier.  And here’s Robin Hanson:

In a TV game show, pretty contestants were not better or more cooperative players, but other contestants seemed to act as if they were.

I don’t know much about the substance or qualifications of Sarah Palin, but I believe that Democrats should be a little worried right now.  The otherwise-expected Romney and Pawlenty gifts have been taken off the table.

Addendum: Here’s Palin talking economics with Larry Kudlow.

Now over 80 percent in the betting markets.  And here is the gossip behind that.  Electorally this is a very effective pick I think (if indeed it is true), though it is hard for me to imagine a President with five (young) kids.

Addendum: No, that wording isn’t quite right.  How should I put this…?

Second addendum: Her stock in the market is now plummeting, now down to about 35, as there is a report she is still in Alaska.  I am told that last night Pawlenty was up to about 85 but then fell dramatically as well.  It has been a wild ride in this market.  And now Palin is back up again, etc.  Whatever.  Now it’s at 96.  Now confirmed.

More: Credible signals, in one link or less.