Have humans passed peak brain power?
In one particularly eye-opening statistic, the share of adults who are unable to “use mathematical reasoning when reviewing and evaluating the validity of statements” has climbed to 25 per cent on average in high-income countries, and 35 per cent in the US.
Saturday assorted links
1. System override.
3. Politicians have to learn how to use AI advisors.
4. Estimating local gdp everywhere.
5. What the Trump administration demands from Columbia University. And more from the NYT.
6. Daniel Kahmeman’s assisted suicide (WSJ).
7. Police officer steps in when alligator stops pizza delivery in Florida.
8. Outrage in Australia after an American woman grabs a baby wombat (NYT).
Institutional ownership of single-family housing
In the last decade, large financial institutions in the United States have purchased hundreds of thousands of homes and converted them to rentals. This paper studies the welfare consequences of institutional ownership of single-family housing. We build an equilibrium model of the housing market with two sectors: rental and homeownership. The model captures two key forces from institutional purchases of homes: changes in rental concentration and reallocation of housing stock across sectors. To estimate the model, we construct a novel dataset of individual homes in metropolitan Atlanta, identifying institutional owners of each house and scraping house-level daily prices, rents, vacancies, web page views, and customer contacts from Zillow. We find that institutional acquisitions increase average renter welfare by $2,760 per year (with rents decreasing by 2.3%). This net benefit reflects two opposing effects: higher concentration raises rents by 3.8%, but higher rental supply lowers rents by 6.1%. On the other hand, the welfare of the average homebuyerdecreasesby$49,950. Onthesupply side, institutional acquisitions benefit house sellers but harm the average landlord.
That is a job market paper by Felix Barbieri, co-authored with Gregory Dobbels. Via Quan Le.
Dalton Conley in genes-environment interaction
The part of this research that really blows me away is the realization that our environment is, in part, made up of the genes of the people around us. Our friends’, our partners’, even our peers’ genes all influence us. Preliminary research that I was involved in suggests that your spouse’s genes influence your likelihood of depression almost a third as much as your own genes do. Meanwhile, research I helped conduct shows that the presence of a few genetically predisposed smokers in a high school appears to cause smoking rates to spike for an entire grade — even among those students who didn’t personally know those nicotine-prone classmates— spreading like a genetically sparked wildfire through the social network.
And:
We found that children who have genes that correlate to more success in school evoke more intellectual engagement from their parents than kids in the same family who don’t share these genes. This feedback loop starts as early as 18 months old, long before any formal assessment of academic ability. Babies with a PGI that is associated with greater educational attainment already receive more reading and playtime from parents than their siblings without that same genotype do. And that additional attention, in turn, helps those kids to realize the full potential of those genes, that is, to do well in school. In other words, parents don’t just parent their children — children parent their parents, subtly guided by their genes.
I found this bit startling, noting that context here is critical:
Looking across the whole genome, people in the United States tend to marry people with similar genetic profiles. Very similar: Spouses are on average the genetic equivalents of their first cousins once removed. Another research project I was involved with showed that for the education PGI, spouses look more like first cousins. For the height PGI, it’s more like half-siblings.
Dalton has a very ambitious vision here:
The new field is called sociogenomics, a fusion of behavioral science and genetics that I have been closely involved with for over a decade. Though the field is still in its infancy, its philosophical implications are staggering. It has the potential to rewrite a great deal of what we think we know about who we are and how we got that way. For all the talk of someday engineering our chromosomes and the science-fiction fantasy of designer babies flooding our preschools, this is the real paradigm shift, and it’s already underway.
I am not so sure about the postulated newness on the methodological front, but in any case this is interesting work. I just hope he doesn’t too much mean all the blah blah blah at the end about how it is really all up to us, etc.
A new measurement for the value of free goods
The welfare contributions of new goods and free goods are not well-measured in our current national accounts. We derive explicit terms for the contributions of these goods and introduce a new framework and metric, GDP-B which quantifies their benefits. We apply this framework to several empirical examples including Facebook and smartphone cameras and estimate their valuations through incentive-compatible choice experiments. We find that including the gains from Facebook adds 0.05 to 0.11 percentage points to welfare growth per year while improvements in smartphones adds approximately 0.63 percentage points per year.
That is from a new AEJ piece by Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, W. Erwin Diewert, Felix Eggers, and Kevin J. Fox.
Friday assorted links
When will Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities?
It seems this ought to happen soon, though it is not (yet) a major news item. Iranian air defenses are severely disrupted, though not forever. The “Hezbollah counterattack” has been more than neutralized, and no alternative deterrent has been put in its place. That too may be temporary. Israeli public opinion is still close in time to October 7, and Netanyahu is not so far from the end of his reign. The countries that will get very mad at Israel for such an attack are already close to maximally mad at Israel. Trump has signaled plenty of support, yet there is no guarantee that will last forever.
Most of all, Iran is getting closer to having a workable nuclear weapon.
I also find it striking how many people discuss the Ukraine negotiations without considering the two issues may be tied to some degree. How much will Putin, if at all, shore up Iran in such a scenario?
Just a reminder that you should not forget about this issue, it could be the most important thing that happens this year.
Ross Douthat, telephone!
Despite arrests and legal aggression from the Greek Orthodox Church, the First Hellenic Polytheist Temple in 1700 Years is now open. Located near the village of Kalliani in the Peloponnese, in the wild mountains of Arcadia, Pan is once again being honored in his native lands.
The Wild Hunt reported in Pagan Community Notes on February 27, 2025, the government and faith community have not been so supportive of Hellenic religion. A Greek court has prohibited the inauguration of the Temple of Zeus and Pan, currently under construction near the village of Kalliani in Arcadia, and has ordered a halt to all ongoing construction work.
On March 8, 2025, a new temple to Pan and Zeus was unveiled, blessed, and sanctified in Greece for the first time in 1700 years; but not without a major fight with the Greek Orthodox Church and the Greek government.
Here is the full story.
The failure of the land value tax
From Samuel Watling, in the new Works in Progress:
By the early 1900s, Progress and Poverty was more popular than Shakespeare among Labour MPs. In 1910, the Liberal government of Henry Asquith implemented a tax on increases in land value and undeveloped land with a view to reforming Britain’s system of property taxes.
Asquith’s gambit failed spectacularly. Britain in the early 1900s became a case study in how administrative complexity can derail land value taxation. The tax cost more to administer than it collected, and it was so poorly worded that it ended up becoming a tax on builders’ profits, leading to a crash in the building industry. As a result, David Lloyd George, the man who introduced the taxes as chancellor in 1910, repealed them as prime minister in 1922. The UK has never fully reestablished a working property tax system.
This history serves as a cautionary tale for modern Georgist sympathizers who believe a land value tax will solve the world’s housing shortages. While Georgists argue that land markets suffer from inefficient speculation and hoarding, Britain’s experience reveals more fundamental challenges with both land value taxes and the Georgist worldview. The definition of land value was impossible to ascertain properly and became bogged down in court cases. When it could be collected, it proved so difficult to implement that administration costs were four times greater than the actual tax income. Instead of increasing the efficiency of land use, it became a punitive tax on housebuilders, cratering housing production.
Worst of all, it not only failed to solve the fundamental problem with British local government – that it had responsibilities that it could not afford to cover with its narrow base – but actually contributed to the long-term crumbling of the property tax systems Britain did have.
More British DOGE
Sir Keir Starmer is abolishing NHS England as Labour embarks on the biggest reorganisation of the health service for more than a decade.
The prime minister said that scrapping the arm’s-length body would bring “management of the NHS back into democratic control” and reduce spending on “two layers of bureaucracy”.
He said the quango, responsible for the day-to-day running of the health service, was the ultimate example of “politicians almost not trusting themselves, outsourcing everything to different bodies … to the point you can’t get things done”.
Starmer argued: “I don’t see why the decision about £200 billion of taxpayer money on something as fundamental to our security as the NHS should be taken by an arm’s-length body.”
NHS England will now be brought back under the control of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), and the two organisations will be merged over the next two years, leading to about 10,000 job cuts.
Here is more from the Times of London.
Chad fact of the day
Chad’s PM2.5 levels were more than 18 times higher than the WHO guideline, with mineral dust in the Sahara Desert as the primary source of air pollutants.
Here is the full article, most of all noting that six of the world’s ten most polluted cities are in India. Via the excellent Samir Varma.
Thursday assorted links
Germany fact of the day
Germany opened its doors a decade ago to nearly 1 million Syrians, taking in more than any other country in Europe. Today, some 6,000 Syrian doctors make up the single largest group of foreign-born physicians, filling vital gaps in care at hospitals and clinics from the Alps to the Baltic Sea. That is especially true in rural areas, where attracting doctors can be hard. But even in big cities, Syrian doctors now make up the majority of attending physicians at some medical practices.
Here is more from The Washington Post. Here is my previous post on Syrians in Germany.
Emergent Ventures winners, 41st cohort
Claire Wang, Cambrige, Mass. whole brain emulation.
Minji Kim, high school, Seoul, to build a running app.
Collin Juurako, Vancouver, UBC, cryobiology.
Stevie Miller, Carnegie Mellon, to write for Works in Progress, general career development.
Ruhan Khanna and Louis Merriam, WDC Sidwell high school, to decipher the Indus script.
Marwa Mattaii and Anush Mutyala, Vancouver UBC, for a student-run nanofab.
Malhar Manek, University of Chicago, Mumbai, general career support.
Lan Dao, San Francisco, a non-profit for artificial wombs.
Adam Jarvis, in support of @teortaxes, Palmerston North, NZ, and Argentina, @teortaxes trip to the Bay Area.
Ashley Mo, Toronto, and Aoi Otani, Cal Tech and Harvard, biomedical innovation.
Raahim Lone, Saudi Arabia, Eastern province, Al Khobar, background Pakistan, sophomore in high school, a query optimizer to reduce database latency.
Matt Faherty, New Platz, NY, study of the National Science Foundation.
Mehran Jalali, San Francisco, doing LIDAR of Mesoamerica.
Mark Lutter, Washington, DC, American free cities and governance.
Sulaiman Ghori, San Francisco, Khan Space Industries, self-replicating space probes.
Arc Prize, Greg Kamradt, San Francisco, measuring AI progress.
Nucleate DoJo, and Iris Sun, toward a house and other support for biomedical researchers.
Daragh Jordan, Galway, Ireland, AI to manage social media feeds.
Abe Callard, San Diego/Chicago/Japan, to make a movie about conversation.
Epoch AI, and Jaime Sevilla, Madrid and remote work, AI safety and measurement.
Again, here is the AI engine, built by Nabeel Qureshi, for searching through the longer list. Here are previous cohorts of EV winners.
The election in Greenland
Greenland’s centre-right opposition has won a surprise general election victory – in a vote dominated by independence and US President Donald Trump’s pledge to take over the semi-autonomous territory.
The centre-right Demokraatit party – which favours a gradual approach to independence from Denmark – achieved around 30% of the vote, near-complete results show…
Five of the six main parties in the election favour independence from Copenhagen, but disagree over the pace with which to reach it…
The Democratic party, whose vote was up by more than 20% on 2021, is considered a moderate party on independence.
Another opposition party, Naleraq, which is looking to to immediately kick-off the independence process and forge closer ties with the US, was on course for second place with almost a quarter of the vote.
The two current governing parties, Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) and Siumut, are heading for third and fourth place – marking an upset for Prime Minister Mute B Egede.
Here is more from the BBC.