Category: Books
Free Hearing
Who gets the right to free speech is a status marker and disputes over this right a status game, so argues Robin Hanson:
The usual rationale for “free speech,” which seems persuasive, is that in the long run we as a society learn more via an open competition for the best ideas, where anyone can try to persuade us as best they can, and listeners are free to choose what to hear. Yet that concept would best be called “free hearing” – a freedom to hear and evaluate any case presented, based on any criteria you like (including cost).
“Free hearing” would apply not just to hearing from adult citizens in good standing, but also to hearing from children, convicts, corporations, robots, foreigners, or demons. We wouldn’t argue if corporations have a right to speak, but rather if we have a right to hear what corporations have to say.
But in fact we have “free speech,” a right only enjoyed by adult citizens in good standing, a right we jealously guard, wondering if corporations etc. “deserve” it. This right seems more a status marker, like the right to vote, than a way to promote idea competition – that whole competition story seems more an ex post rationalization than the real cause for our concern. Which is why support for “free speech” is often paper thin, fluctuating with the status of proposed speakers.
There are other explanations for our focus on free speech rather than free hearing such as it’s the speech makers who are easiest to punish and control (being so many smaller in number than the speech hearers) but Robin’s point remains characteristically insightful.
Estimating when the Soviets could produce a nuclear weapon
Following up on Alex's post on Soviet economic growth forecasts, I was intrigued to read the 1940s estimates, emanating from the United States, about when the Soviets would obtain a nuclear weapon. Leslie Groves — who knew something about building a bomb — testified in front of Congress that it would take them twenty years. In 1948 many Kremlinologists were saying "five to ten years," when in fact the Soviets had a usable bomb in 1949. In 1948 an engineer in Look magazine predicted the Soviets would get the bomb in 1954. Many scientists predicted 1952 and some thought 1970. The Joint Chiefs of Staff were predicted the mid- to late 1950s. The Air Force was the one institution which got it right and remarks from Senator Arthur Vandenberg were close to the truth as well.
Groves was skeptical of the Soviet engineers, who did not turn out to cause delays and who regularly did very well with what they had to work with. Other commentators did not realize that 40 percent of the world's known uranium reserves were within the Soviet Union, or that the Soviets could use German uranium quite well.
All this is from the truly excellent new book Red Cloud at Dawn: Truman, Stalin, and the End of the Atomic Monopoly, by Michael D. Gordin. Here is one very accurate review of the book.
One question is what kind of ideological biases, if any, colored these forecasts. Another question is whether today's estimates of Iranian production are any better.
*You are Not a Gadget*
That is the new book by Jaron Lanier, a humanist critic of how the internet is shaping our lives and cultures and providing a new totalizing ideology. Of all the books with messages in this direction, it is the one I would describe as insightful. Here is one bit:
It breaks my heart when I talk to energized young people who idolize the icons of the new digital ideology, like Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia, and free/open/Creative Commons mashups. I am always struck by the endless stress they put themselves through. They must manage their online reputations constantly, avoiding the ever-roaming evil eye of the hive-mind, which can turn on an individual at any moment. A "Facebook generation" young person who suddenly becomes humiliated online has no way out, for there is only one hive.
And this:
People live longer as technology improves, so cultural change actually slows, because it is tied more to the outgoing generational clock than the incoming one…So Moore's law makes "generational" cultural change slow down.
It's still a book I mostly disagree with. You can buy the book here; too bad it isn't on Kindle yet. Reviews are here.
TNR has a new web site on new books.
1. TNR has a new web site on new books. Here is Eric Posner reviewing a new book on Justice Anthony Kennedy.
2. Nick Rowe on monopolistic competition and macroeconomics and recalculation.
3. A new criticism of Comparative Effectiveness Research.
4. Reihan Salam reviews Cohen and DeLong.
5. Paris at night.
Burning books in Wales?
It is, therefore, genuinely shocking to learn that book-burning is taking place in south Wales. Pensioners in Swansea are reportedly buying books from charity shops for just a few pence each and taking them home for fuel. With temperatures plummeting and energy costs on the rise, thick books such as encyclopaedias are said to be particularly sought after.
I am not sure how firm "reportedly" should be taken. The full story is here and I thank Michael Bracken for the pointer.
Large industrial enterprises in the late 19th century
By the time of Appo's first incarceration in 1874, Sing Sing was a sprawling, seventy-seven-acre industrial complex, simultaneously a "great human cage" and "a leviathan" factory complex…Inside, horses and wagons moved higher and thither, ship masts towered above the quay walls, and freight trains thundered through the prison grounds. In the age of industry, wrote another observer, Sing Sing was a "vast creative emporium." It was arguably the largest manufacturing complex in the country, if not the world.
The size of Sing Sing's labor force dwarfed those of most American factories.
That's from Timothy Gilfoyle's excellent A Pickpocket's Tale: The Underworld of Nineteenth Century New York.
The Pamuk brothers
Kurt Schuler writes to me:
If you are not already aware of it (and I didn’t see it mentioned in a quick search of Marginal Revolution), it may interest you that Orhun Pamuk has an older brother, Sevket, an economist who shuttles between LSE and Bogaziçi (Bosphorus) University in Istanbul. Sevket is the coauthor of A History of Middle East Economies in the Twentieth Century and author of A Monetary History of the Ottoman Empire, among other works in English and Turkish…A Monetary History of the Ottoman Empire is a really good book for those interested in monetary history, by the way, because it covers a long period, a big geographical area, and a body of writing in languages that hardly any Anglophone economists read, all in a brisk 300 pages.
My Law and Literature reading list, Spring 2010
The semester is underway!
The New English Bible, Oxford Study Edition.
In the Belly of the Beast, by Jack Henry Abbott.
Borges and the Eternal Orangutans, by Fernando Verrissimo.
Glaspell’s Trifles, available on-line.
Sherlock Holmes, The Complete Novels and Stories, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, volume 1.
I, Robot, by Isaac Asimov.
Moby Dick, by Hermann Melville, excerpts, chapters 89 and 90, available on-line.
Year’s Best SF 9, edited by David G. Hartwell and Kathryn Cramer.
Oscar Wilde, De Profundis.
Kathryn Davis, The Walking Tour.
Nadezhda Mandelstam, Hope Against Hope: A Memoir.
Haruki Murakami, Underground: The Tokyo Gas Attack and the Japanese Psyche.
Timothy J. Gilfoyle, A Pickpocket’s Tale.
Henning Mankell, Sidetracked.
Edgar Allen Poe, The Gold-Bug, available on-line.
Walker Percy, The Thanatos Syndrome.
We also will view a small number of movies.
Public Domain Day
Today is Public Domain day and James Boyle reports:
In Ray Bradbury’s 1953 classic, Fahrenheit 451, a “fireman” is a man who burns books “for the good of humanity.” Written at the height of the Cold War, the book paints a shockingly dystopian picture of a culture at war with its own printed record, one deeply infused by Bradbury’s love of books. When the book was written, Bradbury got a copyright term of 28 years, renewable for another 28 years if he or his publisher wished. Most authors and publishers did not bother to renew – very few have a commercial life longer than a few years. That meant that about 93% of books and 85% of all works from 1953 passed into the public domain within 28 years. But Bradbury’s book was a commercial success. The copyright was renewed and as a result it would have been entering the public domain tomorrow – January 1, 2010 – Public Domain Day.
You could reprint it, make a low cost educational version, legally create a braille or audio book edition, even base a new film or play on it. All without asking permission or paying a fee. But copyright law has changed since then. Copyright terms have been twice retrospectively extended. Now, Fahrenheit 451 is not slated to enter the public domain until 2049.
African Successes
From Shanta Devajaran at the World Bank’s blog Africa Can…End Poverty, a post on African Successes.
In recent years, a broad swath of African countries has begun to show a remarkable dynamism. From Mozambique’s impressive growth rate (averaging 8% p.a. for more than a decade) to Kenya’s emergence as a major global supplier of cut flowers, from M-pesa’s mobile phone-based cash transfers to KickStart’s low-cost irrigation technology for small-holder farmers, and from Rwanda’s gorilla tourism to Lagos City’s Bus Rapid Transit system, Africa is seeing a dramatic transformation. This favorable trend is spurred by, among other things, stronger leadership, better governance, an improving business climate, innovation, market-based solutions, a more involved citizenry, and an increasing reliance on home-grown solutions. More and more, Africans are driving African development.
A very interesting list of examples and case studies follows. My colleague at the Independent Institute, Alvaro Vargas Llosa has also edited a recent book on this theme titled, Lessons from the Poor.
Question: How does focusing on successes change our view of development?
Hat tip J-J Rosa.
Fischer Black’s *Exploring General Equilibrium*
Coming out in paperback, March 2010, for only $20. You can pre-order now.
Mostly it's Black's views on business cycles, growth, and equilibrium. It's not an easy book for most people to read, as Black just comes out and states what he thinks, without much in the way of trappings or preliminaries or traditional narrative structure. There are also no models, just strings of statements about models. That said, virtually every sentence has substance. It is one of my favorite books in economics and it still contains many unmined insights. I'm tempted to order an extra copy, just for the pleasure of buying it.
Gretchen Rubin’s *The Happiness Project*
The book is now out and yes it does add to her blog.
My current take on "happiness" (not the same as Gretchen's) is:
1. I believe in the "set point" theory, at least when our health and the health of our loved ones is at an acceptable level.
2. People should strive to be more interesting and more responsible. Happiness may result as a byproduct, but those are more important values. I would like to read a book called The Interesting Project.
3. Shopping and going to the public library (i.e., shopping at p = 0) make people happier, at least for a while. You can do these activities repeatedly.
4. Most people aren't as interested in being happy as they claim, or seem to claim.
5. On net, Gretchen's tips will enhance your happiness.
Here is Gretchen's post on making effective New Year's resolutions.
Books of note
1. David W. Galenson, Conceptual Revolutions in Twentieth-Century Art. We've covered Galenson in these posts.
2. Richard A. Posner, The Crisis of Capitalist Democracy. Due out in April, this book is 400 pp. The press release notes it "presents what Judge Posner has learned about the econom since writing [his last book]…[and he] thinks we're in for a financial aftershock because of the amount of money the government has poured into the economy to save it."
3. Günter Grass, The Tin Drum, new translation by Breon Mitchell. I've only browsed this, but it appears to be far better than the earlier English-language translation.
4. Scott Berkun, Confessions of a Public Speaker. If you get only one good tip from this book, it's worth it.
5. Peter Singer Under Fire: The Moral Iconoclast Faces His Critics. The critics include Bernard Williams, David Schmidtz, Jan Narveson, Michael Huemer, and myself'; Singer responds to each essay.
Managua
With over 600 barrios, a definitive breakdown of Managua safety is a book in itself. As a general rule, don't ever walk more than a few blocks anywhere in Managua. There are almost no police during the night time and with no centre there are few places where the streets will be busy. The Metrocentro area is safe, but it's still best not to walk alone. The only place that lends itself to walking is the malecón and central park area of old Managua, but do not walk here at night under any circumstances. Even during the daytime take precautions, don't carry any more than you need and avoid walking alone. Be careful when visiting the Catedral Nueva, which is next to a barrio with many thieves. Having said all of this, in comparison with other Central American capitals Managua is safe for the visitor, although theft is common at bus stations and outside the more affluent neighborhoods
That's from my guidebook. It seemed fine to me.
*The End of Influence*
The subtitle is What Happens When Other Countries Have the Money and the authors are Stephen S. Cohen and Brad DeLong. Here is an excerpt:
The Asian export-led growth model must — over time — transform itself to domestic consumption and prosperity models. The American borrow-and-import model will also have to shift — again, this takes considerable time — to a model of consumption-at-the-level-you-produce. And the need to keep the confidence of those who have the money that their money is well placed in the United States serves as a constraint on U.S. policy in a way that it has never been before.
In the last three paragraphs of the book the authors describe the various stimulus attempts as something that will "buy time," but will not be sufficient to alter this basic trajectory.