Category: Uncategorized

Monday assorted links

1. Europe is dropping the ball on AI and in some ways positively discouraging it.  And too many crummy firms in Europe: “Using a new survey, we show that the dispersion of marginal products across firms in the European Union is about twice as large as that in the United States. Reducing it to the US level would increase EU GDP by more than 30 percent. Alternatively, removing barriers between industries and countries would raise EU GDP by at least 25 percent.”

2. Remember when Clearchannel was going dominate all radio, forever?

3. Marcel Gauchet on democracy and the sweep of history.

4. How two economists got access to IRS tax data.  Bravo to them I say, but it’s worth noting that the shift from regression-driven to data set-driven economics has been a remarkably inegalitarian development, widely praised by most top academic economists.  So often progress means a willingness to disregard or even stomp on egalitarian norms.

5. The economics of why some restaurants need to leave Queens.

6. Kling on the new Chetty-Hendren-Jones-Porter results.

7. Those new service sector jobs: Iraqi war architect Paul Bremer now a ski instructor in Vermont.

Sunday assorted links

1. Interview with Ken Rogoff (on chess).

2. The economic impact of major league baseball in the Dominican Republic.

3. More on autonomous vehicle safety (NYT).  And uh-oh.  More here.  Do you prefer zombies eating kitties!?  And at this point I don’t think the “Google city” in Toronto ever will be built, do you?

4. Paul Samuelson’s changing views on women.

5. Bach and sex.

6. Fraser Nelson argues the Brexit process is proving manageable (WSJ).

Saturday assorted links

1. The consequences of economic development.

2. A postulate for rival firms with common owners.

3. 44 African countries sign a free trade deal (though not Nigeria).

4. Profile of Vaclav Smil.

5. “He said the stone defence was intended as a last resort if evacuations failed.

6. “…we estimate that approximately 95% of the potential predictive accuracy attainable for an individual is available within the social ties of that individual only, without requiring the individual’s data.”  Link here.

Further adventures in median voter land, GOP Omnibus edition

GOP House

GOP Senate

GOP White House

Planned Parenthood still getting $500 million in taxpayer funding

That is from a tweet by Peter J Hasson.  One of the most underreported and insidious forms of media bias is underestimation of the median voter theorem.  Unlike many forms of media bias, partisans on neither side have an incentive to reveal this one.  It really does make a lot of political struggles much less interesting and dramatic.  Here is my earlier post on “Three Word Explanations.”

Friday assorted links

1. The rate of draws is not going up in chess, even though play is improving and likely the perfectly played game is a forced draw (model this).  And Noah Feldman on game theory in the Middle East, the Saudis and Kushner too.

2. The perfect oil field.

3. A claim that India is becoming a minoritarian dystopia.

4. Diamonds embedded in the human being are the new trend in engagement rings.

5. The academic who defended colonialism.  Good piece.

6. I did a short podcast with the new Institute for Innovative Governance Research about…innovative governance, starting with charter cities and seasteading but also going beyond that.  Here is an associated essay by Mark Lutter.

Cryptocurrencies in everything

A cryptocurrency called Agrocoin is giving buyers a chance to invest in some of the world’s spiciest peppers.

Mexico’s Amar Hidroponia, which grows only habanero chilis, started selling digital tokens in September as a way to raise capital from smaller investors. Each 500 peso ($27) Agrocoin is backed by a square meter of hydroponic production in Quintana Roo state. The company says it expects to pay a yearly dividend equal to about 30 percent of the cost, depending on output and demand.

Here is the full Bloomberg story.

My March 28 talk at MIT

What happens when a simulated system becomes more real than the system itself?  Will the internet become “more real” than the world of ideas it is mirroring? Do we academics live in a simulacra?  If the “alt right” exists mainly on the internet, does that make it more or less powerful?  Do all innovations improve system quality, and if so why is a lot of food worse than before and home design was better in 1910-1930?  How does the world of ideas fit into this picture?

Here are details on the lunch seminar.

Are the Amish unhappy?

We were able to recruit 52 Amish participants for our study of which 56 % were male and for which the average age was 44. Interestingly, the average levels of life satisfaction as measured by the SWLS (Diener et al., 1985) was 4.4; just above the neutral point. Above neutral scores are consistent with the idea that “most people are mildly happy” (Diener & Diener, 1996), and that mild happiness is evolutionarily advantageous (Fredrickson, 2001). Comparatively, the Amish satisfaction in our study can be interpreted as meaning that the Amish fall lower than members of many other groups. In a study of more than 13 thousand college students from 31 nations, for example, only students from Kenya (whose average life satisfaction was 4.0) scored lower than the Amish (Diener & Diener, 1995).

Anecdotally, the Amish society in which we conducted our study was fraught with contrasts. On the one hand, the Amish had a pronounced pro-social attitude. One man I interviewed, for example, had donated tens of thousands of US Dollars toward the medical treatment of his neighbor’s son, with no thought of repayment. Similarly, the Amish often helped one another in quilting, construction, and food preparation. On the other hand, these neighborly behaviors were confined to in-group members. There was a conspicuous degree of prejudice toward out-group members, especially ethnic or religious minorities. One bishop, for example, asked me whether I thought the space shuttle Challenger exploded because there was a Jewish person (Judith Resnick) aboard.

Another set of contrasts could be found in the relationship between the Amish and the larger “English” society in which they live. While on the one hand there is a strong cultural push to remain separate from industrialized society. The Amish I spoke with were highly invested in publicly conforming to group norms related to abstaining from the use of industrial technologies and from remaining aloof from broader society. Privately, however, the Amish revealed themselves to be as curious and as human as people from any other society. One participant, for example, admitted that he used his workplace telephone—an allowable technology—to phone a newspaper number that hosts recordings of the world’s news. Another informant revealed that she had secretly flown on an airplane. These examples reflect the on-going tension of a society that must—individually and collectively—continually re-negotiate its relation to the larger society in which it exists. Where subjective well-being is concerned, the tension between retaining traditions and adapting to new circumstances is an interesting issue for research.

…global and specific domain satisfaction should, theoretically, be in agreement. For example, if a person is satisfied with her romantic life, her friendships, and her family relationships—all specific domains—she should, logically, report about the same amount of satisfaction with her overall social life (the global domain). Diener and colleagues found that this correspondence occurred in some cultures, such as Japan. In other cultures, however, they discovered an inflationary effect. People in Colombia and the United States, for instance, are likely to inflate their global reports of satisfaction over that reported for specific satisfaction.

That is by Robert Biswas-Diener, there is much of interest in this paper on happiness in small societies.  Via Rolf Degen.  By the way, this article about Norway is worth a ponder too.

Thursday assorted links

1. New results about Denisovans.

2. “…the evidence suggests that electoral incentives successfully induce incumbents to exert professional effort.”  And eliminating the university Boards of Regents would be a big mistake for Arizona.

3. Who’s complacent?  The culture that is Maine.

4. China extrapolation of the day: “The famine in China 1959-61 was the single biggest in history, in terms of numbers of deaths. But in terms of long-run population trends, the impact was remarkably small.”  And Amazon might produce three seasons of The Three-Body Principle.

5. A good take on Facebook and the Zuckerberg speech.

6. I recommend the Israeli movie Foxtrot, though it is best to see it without spoilers and without reading reviews.

Wednesday assorted links

1. The lice culture that is Dutch (America).  Is this representative?

2. A thread on the new Chetty result.

3. Francis Bator was killed by a car with a human driver (NYT obituary).

4. How to stay healthy on a plane?

5. A useful Cambridge Analytica/Facebook story.  Here is the most analytical paragraph: “At its core, according to a former Facebook executive, the problem is really an existential one. The company is very good at dealing with things that happen frequently and have very low stakes. When mistakes happen, they move on. According to the executive, the philosophy of the company has long been “We’re trying to do good things. We’ll make mistakes. But people are good and the world is forgiving.””  And Clickhole on Facebook.

6. 83 days at the Ritz.

In tech, we fear what we can’t control

That is the topic of my new Bloomberg column, here is one bit:

Like drones, driverless cars possess some features of an especially potent scare story. They are a new and exciting technology, and so stories about them get a lot of clicks. We don’t actually know how safe they are, and that uncertainty will spook people above and beyond whatever is the particular level of risk. Most of all, driverless cars by definition involve humans not feeling in direct control. It resembles how a lot of people feel in greater danger when flying than driving a car, even though flying is usually safer. Driverless cars raise a lot of questions about driver control: Should you be allowed to sleep in the backseat? Or must you stay by the wheel? That focuses our minds and feelings on the issue of control all the more.

And:

The recent brouhaha over Facebook and Cambridge Analytica (read here and here) reflects some similar issues. Could most Americans clearly and correctly articulate exactly what went wrong in this episode? Probably not, but people do know that when it comes to social networks, their personal data and algorithms, they don’t exactly feel in control. The murkiness of the events and legal obligations is in fact part of the problem.

When I see a new story or criticism about the tech world, I no longer ask whether the tech companies poll as being popular (they do). I instead wonder whether voters feel in control in a world with North Korean nuclear weapons, an erratic American president and algorithms everywhere. They don’t. Haven’t you wondered why articles about robots putting us all out of work are so popular during a time of full employment?

We are about to enter a new meta-narrative for American society, which I call “re-establishing the feeling of control.” Unfortunately, when you pursue the feeling rather than the actual control, you often end up with neither.

Do read the whole thing.

*Waste of a Nation*

The authors are Assa Doron and Robin Jeffrey and the subtitle is Garbage and Growth in India, here is one excerpt from this worthy book:

In India, the tool for cleaning teeth and gums had long been a twig usually taken from a neem tree…, which can be plucked each morning, chewed into a teeth-cleaning brush, and then thrown away.  Neem also has medicinal properties.  Tooth powders gained popularity in towns and cities in preindependence times, but in smaller towns as late as the 1960s shops that sold toothpaste had to be searched for.  Consumption of toothpaste was meager.  India’s toothpaste industry in the mid-1970s was estimated to produce about 1,200 metric tons a year for a population of more than 600 million.  An Australian population of 16 million consumed 5,000 metric tons of toothpaste.  By the late 1980s, the Indian market was said to be growing rapidly, but the industry estimated that only 15 percent of the population used toothpaste and that per capita consumption was only 30 grams a year.

…By 2014, a single new factory set up in Gujarat by Colgate-Palmolive was capable of making 15,000 metric tons of toothpaste a year, more than ten times the quantity produced in all of India two generations earlier.

Recommended.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Sam Harris interviews Robin Hanson.

2. I still find the Cambridge Analytica story confusing.  This article is useful, but it heightens my confusion too.  Who exactly did what wrong?  And I don’t think I agree with the framing of this Michael Dougherty piece, but it does pose some useful questions.  Here is the Bershidsky take.

3. “Ask a child to draw a scientist, and she’s more likely than ever to draw a woman.

4. Megan is skeptical about the greater safety of driverless cars.

Monday assorted links

1. The Freedom Party wants to give Austrians (the people, not the economists) the freedom to smoke (NYT).

2. Facebook will now be more reluctant to share with social scientists.

3. The problem of Germany.

4. The Arnold Kling high school memoir.  More people should write pieces of this kind.

5. “You might see chairs thrown amid a torrent of f-bombs, freestyle rapping mid-game, and a never-ending barrage of trash talk. This is the new, online era of chess.”  Link here.