Category: Uncategorized
My favorite things South Carolina
This is a week belated but now I am in New York so here goes:
1. Music: James Brown was born in the state; my favorite James Brown song is Bewildered. Reverend Gary Davis is associated with North Carolina but he too was born in the state; try Sally Where’d You Get Your Liquor From? My favorite Dizzy Gillespie album is Dizzy’s Big 4.
2. Comedian: I’ve enjoyed a few clips of Stephen Colbert, though I do not pretend to have a good sense of his average quality.
3. Artist: Jasper Johns, though Georgia claims him too.
4. Political theorist: John Calhoun was brilliant, despite his repugnance on a number of obvious dimensions.
5. Federal Reserve chairman: Guess.
I can’t say I like Robert Jordan or Andrew Jackson or John Watson or John Edwards or Jesse Jackson. My father loved Barton MacLane but he never much registered with me.
This list is so thin I must be failing and forgetting people. I feel that many movies have been set in Charleston, or other parts of the state, but I can’t think of one of them, much less a good one. Nonetheless the peaks on the above list are high.
Assorted links
2. One year anniversary of IHS Kosmos video, podcast, and informational site. Here is my short video on academic publishing.
3. Are puffins a cyclical asset, attracted by undervalued real exchange rates? Sadly this piece never considers an economic explanation for the phenomenon under study.
4. Is Japanese health care falling apart?
5. Alesina and Giavazzi on Italy.
6. Who are the world’s biggest employers?
7. Time inconsistent budget agreements.
8. Be very careful comparing poverty line changes over time.
Assorted links
1. No Belgian government could turn out to be a problem.
2. The excellent Erik Angner will join GMU.
3. Dean and Cindy Karlan start blogging their year of travel and homeschooling.
4. How Slovenia switched from the former Yugoslav currency to the Tolar (pdf).
5. Lots of early articles now free access on JSTOR.
6. Uh-oh.
Assorted links
1. Business investment as a key to recovery, from Greg Mankiw. Lots of important truth in this piece.
2. Dalit classical liberalism, and here (pdf).
3. Robert Barro’s recipe for change.
4. Good analysis of how the second Greek bailout relates to the first, cynical piece. Here is an intelligent piece on doing the unthinkable for Europe.
5. Raghuram Rajan argues against a dose of inflation. And surprise as a reason to drink cheap wine, via The Browser.
Assorted links
1. Property value calculator for the board game Monopoly.
3. Excellent piece by Stephen King on our current economic predicament, highly recommended.
4. In defense of Georgia Work$.
5. How to get out of our mess, by Jim Manzi. Notice the emphasis on wealth creation. And are scientists well-suited to be entrepreneurs?
Assorted links
1. What’s not getting cheaper (best charts on the second page of the link).
3. U.S. individual stock correlations are running fearfully high.
4. New book on the economics of sex.
5. Alex on the Obama jobs bill, Bryan on the Obama jobs bill, I’ve been traveling.
Assorted links
A further note on the broken windows fallacy
I’d like to second the points by Alex and also Bob Murphy. An additional factor is that when a window breaks (never mind ongoing regulations and wealth taxes, which as Alex notes will be worse) wealth goes down. Keynesians tend to overestimate the importance of flows and underestimate the importance of stocks and sometimes they neglect the latter altogether. Just as there is a spending multiplier, there is also a multiplier from changes in wealth. For instance declines in perceived wealth will cause people to spend less. The Keynesian AD gains from a broken window have to stem from the difference between the spending multiplier and the wealth multiplier. Under the permanent income hypothesis, there’s not a lot of daylight here. Furthermore the perceived wealth decline, even if it doesn’t lead to immediate one-to-one reductions in spending, can persist over several periods. Granted, PIH is not exactly correct, but still the net impact of stimulus on current employment and income won’t be that large because of the negative wealth effects. Fiscal policy remains a weak pill. The declines in housing prices in recent years really have taken their toll on AD so the wealth multiplier is not to be ignored. The notion that a stable and sustainable restoration of AD actually requires some increases in perceived wealth is one of the most underrated ideas among today’s Keynesians.
I would make a few more general points:
1. It is possible that a broken window may increase employment and output and under sufficiently unusual assumptions it may also increase welfare. But it’s not likely. I think the point, showing the possibility of this exceptional case, should be a footnote in an intermediate macro text but no more.
2. The importance of wealth creation for human well-being is the more important lesson, by far, from economics. There are plenty of productive investments by which government can improve matters, starting with fixing escalators in the DC Metro system, not breaking them! Ultimately, in the Hansonian sense, the debate is about how much we should glorify wealth creators and in this regard Hazlitt not Keynes gets it right.
3. A more directly practical point is that tighter ozone regulation will spur some hiring but probably lead to labor market crowding out, rather than targeting the current unemployed. I don’t know if those regulations are a good idea or not but I do think the case for them has to stand on its own two feet and not on Keynesian principles.
Did Ron Paul call for bimetallism?
I didn’t watch the debate, but I see talk of Paul and bimetallism on my Twitter feed. Note that bimetallism is better than a pure gold standard, as it is less likely to bring dangerous deflation. Under bimetallism, you fix a gold-silver parity. Eventually the equilibrium price for gold and silver, vis-a-vis each other, will deviate from that parity. People will hoard the legally undervalued money, and the legally overvalued money will circulate as a medium of exchange (“bad money drives out good,” as they used to say). Think of it as randomizing your medium of account: you get whichever medium of account is more inflationary (less deflationary), gold or silver.
Here is Milton Friedman defending bimetallism.
Every now and then some joker comes along and wants to legally fix the price of forty different commodities and use that as money, etc. Think of it as another path to stimulus and maybe quite a credible one!
Assorted links
1. The euro crisis in Lego form, as seen by a nine-year-old.
2. There is no great stagnation. And John Hagel reviews TGS; he does not want the mindset to spread. And who is falling out of the middle class.
3. Misophonia.
4. The new Felix Salmon aggregation project.
5. The export of green timothy hay the culture that is Japan: “High quality timothy is whatever the customer says it is!”
Barsky and Summers and Krugman on Gibson’s Paradox
From Barsky and Summers:
This paper contributes a new element to the explanations of the Gibson paradox, the puzzling correlation between interest rates and the price level seen during the gold-standard period. A shock that raises the underlying real rate of return in the economy reduces the equilibrium relative price of gold and, with the nominal price of gold pegged by the authorities, must raise the price level. The mechanism involves the allocation of gold between monetary and nonmonetary uses. The authors’ explanation helps to resolve some important anomalies in previous work and is supported by empirical evidence along a number of dimensions.
The paper is here. Paul Krugman offers a very good explanation of a related hypothesis. It’s one useful way of thinking about why the price of gold is rising in a deflationary time (without requiring one to deny the potential relevance of other factors). The presentation also explains the behavior of gold prices in a TGS era, namely with low real rates of return.
I very much enjoy this puzzle. It requires a working knowledge of many different parts of economics, not just a few.
Assorted links
1. Switzerland had a twenty standard deviations event. And here is Scott on the Swiss unlimited pledge, a real test of credibility theories.
2. Fairness games, at the cost of $8,000 or more.
4. David Leonhardt on infrastructure, circa 2008.
6. Irish debt crisis may be less severe than estimated, the paper is here, Irish commentary here, some pointed reservations but still Irish austerity continues to outperform the expectations of its critics across a variety of data points.
Assorted links
Assorted links
1. Claims about temporal cloaking.
2. Is Bitcoin a bubble?, by James Surowiecki.