Facts about milk

1. Global milk prices have doubled over the last two years.

2. In some parts of the United States, milk is more expensive than gasoline.

3. There are reports of cows being stolen from Wisconsin dairy farms.

4. The rising demand for milk is coming mostly from developing nations; the average Chinese consumes six gallons of milk a year, up from two gallons in 2000.  China is now the world’s leading milk importer.

5. Parts of New Zealand are booming.

6. Only 7 percent of all milk commercially produced is traded across national borders.

7. Sufficiently high (market-driven) milk prices may render many milk price supports and subsidies irrelevant.

Here is the article (NYT, permalink may be pending but not yet).

A Farewell to Alms, through p.272

…comes again on the question of science.  He points out correctly that most of the major technological innovators did not get much for their efforts.  Clark therefore does not see the late 18th century or early 19th century as giving special incentives for science.  I agree as far as he goes, but I view the incentives for science more broadly.

Core Europe, starting in late medieval times, developed a new and still poorly understood organizational technology.  This was, very roughly, the ability to work in groups, cumulate technologies and advances, and learn from each other in competitive environments.  Most notably, this new technology led the Florentine and Venetian Renaissances, especially in the visual arts.  But there was more.  The rise of printing.  The rise of classical music, starting in 1685 or whenever.  The rise of early modern philosophy.  Europe goes crazy with inventiveness, albeit in splats and bursts.  (Clark’s own chapter 12 gives good evidence for this tendency, though it will play a less central role in his version of the story.)

It is also the case that most of these bursts of inventiveness didn’t do much for the average standard of living.  Yes mastering oil paint technique made Florence richer but not so much.

It just so happened that one of these bursts came in science, technology, and engineering.  And it came in England, mostly for reasons of "national character."  It just so happened that the English burst did more for the standard of living, for reasons of external benefits.  But having had such a burst was not unique to England.  England was just one spoke on a more broadly turning wheel, and a European distribution of bursts was well in place prior to most of the special conditions we might find in England.

England, by the way, also had the literary revolution of the 18th century, and England plus Scotland drove the rise of modern economics.  There is no Chinese Adam Smith and that is because that Europe was pulling decisively ahead in ideas production.  I consider this a fact of great importance whereas for Clark it is a sideshow to some other story.

Most generally, I see the historical problem of growth through the lens of culture — in the sense of the history of the arts, music, and letters — more than through the economic history literature.  I am very taken by Max Weber’s writing on Western music and also his conception of the broader style of Western rationality.  And I see the rise of these organizational improvements as a central — the central? — story of early modern Europe and the move to prosperity.  It simply took a long time to apply these organizational movements to science, and to turn that science into concrete technical advances.

None of this need contradict Clark and indeed you will find parts of this narrative in his book.  But unlike Clark I would not superimpose this on a broader Malthusian story or an emphasis on the long run.  Nor am I putting much stock in genetic evolution.  So these organizational/technological improvements, in my view, move closer to the center of the story of European progress.

Unlike Clark, I think incentives to create matter greatly, but not through patents or other direct pecuniary rate of return effects.  The great creators have a burning desire to create, provided they have the opportunity to do so.  This new European technology of organization (whatever it should be called), combined with growing wealth for the upper classes, meant that such creative opportunities were far more available than ever before.  And powerful intellects grabbed them, for reasons of psychic incentives.  So incentives are paramount to the European story, while Clark remains correct in criticizing the standard account of how those incentives might have mattered.

I also see England has having innovated with the quality of its state in particular its fiscal grounding.  I wish this played a larger role in Clark’s account although of course I understand why it does not.  Institutions are not allowed to become a competing force on center stage.  The economic returns from colonies might be given more play as well.

Overall I am willing to accept many of Clark’s arguments, but I always go back to wanting to superimpose a broader institutional story on his microfoundations.

He resists that move, and that is the major place where I part company with him.  I think he is too intent on pushing institutional and ideological factors off the stage; I am happy to allow Clark’s factors on the stage — most of all gradual growth downward mobility and quality of labor — but I want a very busy and cluttered stage.

I believe, by the way, that if Clark’s vision were correct, Australia and New Zealand would be stronger economic powerhouses than has turned out to be the case.

Larry Craig

Maybe I spent too much time reading Thomas Schelling (is that possible?), but my main reaction was to wonder how such trade-maximizing conventions get started.  I mean the foot tapping, the leaning of the bag against the stall door, and the like.  In the early stages of such conventions, I can think of a few paths:

1. Signal something harmless and non-incriminating and hope for reciprocation.  Yelling out a clue-laden but non-obscene word or phrase ("Fire Island!") might do the trick.  But if the other guy yells back "Berlin!", is that enough to act upon?

2. Signal something costly — incriminating or at least potentially embarrassing — in the hope of establishing your credibility as a social transgressor.  Of course you hope to get a costly signal in return.  A step-by-step escalation of the signals then follows, so that trust in mutual social deviance is established prior to action.  At some point in the escalation the action is worth the risk because the other person is sufficiently out on a limb.  As the years pass the escalation of signals proceeds more quickly and cuts out some of the intermediate steps.

3. The initial gains from trade are so high that most participants are willing to run the risk of the blatant signal and the equilibrium is inevitable.

4. High-demanding and reckless "pioneers" establish the convention, by signaling blatantly but against their self-interest.  Nonetheless the convention becomes relatively safe once it spreads to many traders.

5. The convention never become so safe (ask Larry Craig) and so we have a separating equilibrium in which only the risk lovers manage to trade in this public environment.

My intuition suggests a mix of #2 and #4 as the most likely paths.

How might you signal your willingness, to a friend, to make fun of or gossip about a common acquaintance?

George Clooney

The critique is that some mothers mix dirty water with the dairy formula and give their kids diarrhea, from which some of these kids die.  (Yes I do know that breast milk has other health benefits for kids.)   But isn’t dehydration the major mechanism of death?  Forgive me for sounding flip, but shouldn’t Nestle be advertising its dairy products to mothers with kids with diarrhea, so then they wouldn’t die?  (Even dirty water is better to drink than doing nothing and usually it will save most lives, or so I have been told.)  Isn’t one way of looking at the problem that Nestle doesn’t have good enough ads?

Flipness aside, Clooney supposedly is not being paid for his role in the movie, so
his behavior raises a question for utilitarianism.  Should not a saint
work for evil causes, earn more money, and subsidize good causes with
the surplus?  I believe this depends on whether good or evil causes rely more on cash flow, whether good or evil causes invest resources more productively toward their good or evil ends, and the costs of mixing good and evil causes in terms of symbolic values.

Under what conditions will evil causes end up manned exclusively by good people?

Your Money & Your Brain

The subtitle is How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich, written by financial journalist Jason Zweig.  I enjoyed the content of this book, and would recommend it as a stimulating source of ideas, but with some caveats:

1. The new science of neuroeconomics cannot help make you rich, unless perhaps you have inherited a scanner and then rent scanner time to neuroeconomists (often $500 an hour or more).  Or unless you decide to simply buy and hold, compared to some other foolish plan you might have had.

2. I would have liked more emphasis on the tentative nature of neuroeconomics results.  Most studies have very few data points (see #1).  And if human choice is so context-dependent — a message of the book — doesn’t it matter if people are removed from their normal environment, told they are in an experiment, and subjected to a loud, whirring machine?

3. What does it really mean if some part of your brain lights up?  Who really knows?

4. The book mixes in results from experimental economics, surveys, and field experiments.  That’s fine, but if the neuro results had to stand alone on an open plain they would look less impressive.

I genuinely am a fan of neuroeconomics, but in the interests of science it’s important not to oversell it.

How many books should you start?

So few other people sample books en masse, yet the practice strikes me as trivially correct.  If I buy a book the odds that I finish it are reasonably high, certainly above fifty percent.  Why spend the money on a longshot?  (Btw, "What I’ve Been Reading" is almost always books I have finished, otherwise why report them?)  But when I troll a public library for free books, which I do virtually every day, should I pick up only those books I expect to finish?  No, I slide further along the marginal benefit curve and that means I grab lots of books with relatively small but positive expected values.

Yesterday’s haul from Arlington Public Library included You Never Call! You Never Write!, and Otherwise Normal People: Inside the Thorny World of Competitive Rose Gardening, neither of which I expect to finish (though I will if I love them).  The real question is should I read more on-line book reviews (which are free), or do my own "reviews" by pawing the free book for a few minutes? 

What are other reasons not to sample?  Are library trips so costly?  Are you so confident in social filters relative to your own judgment/pawing?  Have blogs outcompeted book pawing?  Is the goal of reading simply to share impressions with other people, and there is little uncertainty about what are the hot-selling books?

I say go and grab, go and grab, go and grab.

Nothing at all like this happens in our house

Darrah’s absence has brought something else into bold relief — our attachment to certain routines.  Without her youthful energy buzzing through the house, some of our longtime habits have deepened — calcified? — into codgerlike rituals.  The one that most amazes and amuses Dan and me takes place after dinner, when we…amble into the living room…put on a CD and pick up our respective books (these days, usually from the library).  We then commence what we call "parallel reading."

…Once in a while, one of us will notice the rutlike quality of this activity and say something to the effect of, "What have we come to?"  Then we’ll chuckle, sip some tea, and go back to our books.

That is from Karen Stabiner’s The Empty Nest: 31 Parents Tell the Truth About Relationships, Love, and Freedom After the Kids Fly the Coop.  For one thing, I don’t drink much tea.

Prediction tools

Predict How Long You’ll Live (Northwest Mutual)

Predict Your Child’s Due Date (Ayres)

Predict Your Child’s Adult Height (University of
Saskatchewan)

Predict Justice Kennedy’s Vote (Ayres)

Predict Your Next Move in Rock-Paper-Scissors (Chappie)

There are many other prediction tools here (do click), from Ian Ayres.  Ayres requests that you email him other prediction applets, which he will add to the page.  Ayres also has a new book out, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking by Numbers is the New Way to be Smart; it is highly readable and also endorsed by Steve Levitt.

I thank Ian Ayres for the pointer.

The economy of airports

Maria says:

Here are the things most people would happily pay for at an international transit airport: – a shower – clean underwear (for those of us who habitually forget to pack it) – daylight – an exercise facility to help with the jetlag and minimise DVT – nutritious but not too heavy food – a nap, lying flat, somewhere quiet.

And here’s what is generally available: – Gucci – Chanel – l’Occitane – Bodyshop – Lacoste – Nike – a few plastic seats – McDonalds, dougnuts, and the local variety of fried, sugary dross to add a sugar hangover to your jetlag.

Megan says:

…in an airport, foot traffic is very high, and space is at a premium.  So you should expect to see things that go at a very high volume (McDonalds) or things that are very expensive per-inch-of-display-space, such as Gucci.  Showers and napping capsules do not meet either criteria.

Tyler says:

Think of airports as temporary prisons for the wealthy, and the luxury good offerings as reflecting the extreme value of their attention.  Airports will sell goods which are complements to that attention, which is otherwise so hard to get. 

Compare the Brooks Brothers outlet at Reagan National Airport with the Brooks Brothers outlet at Tysons Corner Mall.  I’ll predict the former devotes a greater percentage of floor space to eye-catching, easy-to-buy, easy to try on items, such as ties.

Another prediction is this: in countries (cities) where the wealthy people are not hurried (relative to shop hours), there should be fewer luxury goods in the airports.  What are examples?  Monaco?  Nice?  Spain?  London would seem to be an example of extreme hurry.

And what does Air Genius Gary Leff say?

Addendum: The genius weighs in.