Book Forum reminder — The Logic of Life
Don’t forget to pre-order your copy of Tim Harford’s The Logic of Life: The Rational Economics of an Irrational World. Alex and I will be starting our Book Forum soon, along with some prestigious guest reviewers, and Tim’s book will start appearing in book stores this Tuesday. Tim is one of the world’s best popular writers on economics, and we only select those books that we feel will yield maximally interesting book forums.
The Division of Personality is Limited by the Division of Labor
Here is the abstract to Why can’t a
man be more like a woman? Sex differences in Big Five personality traits
across 55 cultures.
Previous research suggested that sex differences in personality traits
are larger in prosperous, healthy, and egalitarian cultures in which
women have more opportunities equal with those of men. In this article,
the authors report cross-cultural findings in which this unintuitive
result was replicated across samples from 55 nations (N = 17,637). On
responses to the Big Five Inventory, women reported higher levels of
neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, and conscientiousness than did
men across most nations. These findings converge with previous studies in
which different Big Five measures and more limited samples of nations
were used. Overall, higher levels of human development–including long
and healthy life, equal access to knowledge and education, and economic
wealth–were the main nation-level predictors of larger sex differences
in personality. Changes in men’s personality traits appeared to be the
primary cause of sex difference variation across cultures. It is proposed
that heightened levels of sexual dimorphism result from personality
traits of men and women being less constrained and more able to naturally
diverge in developed nations. In less fortunate social and economic
conditions, innate personality differences between men and women may be
attenuated.
Unlike the authors, I don’t find it unintuitive that personality differences between men and women increase in developed economies. All personality differences increase in developed economies. If Robin Williams Chris Rock (see comments) were a Bangladeshi rice farmer he might still be funny but he’d also have to be a hard-working, diligent rice farmer and that would push his personality closer to the mean of all rice farmers. The division of labor both opens up the possibility of becoming who you truly are and it magnifies and extends who you can be.
Hat tip to Robin Hanson.
Another way to limit draws in chess
A compromise is that a draw offer should remain valid for some fixed period,
say ten moves. This will allow the person who has been offered a draw to test
whether the offer was truly justified, e.g. by trying a daring line which may
or may not be refuted by the opponent. If it is he can claim the draw on his tenth move, even if his position is losing. The limitation to ten moves avoids the potential problem of people playing on interminably after a draw offer, waiting for their opponents to blunder or overstep the time.
That is John Nunn, here is more. A draw, of course, is a form of trade, albeit one with some negative social externalities (a quick draw makes chess more boring for the spectators). If you want to limit trades in some markets, a similar rule could be contemplated. If you offer to buy a currency at a particular price, you have to keep a similar offer open for one week to some number of other market participants. Solve for the resulting equilibrium, and see how it matters.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
This movie, with its hints of Metamorphosis and Maya Deren, probably will stand as one of the best of the last ten years. Of course it has a deeply economic theme: how much of the value of life stems from our ability to trade, and how much from our ability to play games of pure coordination? Plus the French health care system is so good that all the nurses are beautiful and pay infinite attention to a single patient, or maybe that is just how French movies are made.
18 stunning bridges
This is enough to get a boy really excited. My favorites are Millau, Rotterdam, and Oresund.
No Immunity for the Telecoms
The telecoms happily collaborate with the NSA to run roughshod over the constitution with warrantless phone and email taps but of course they cut off covert surveillance immediately when the government forgets to pay the bill. Bastards. Not that I am surprised. Incentives matter; so of course the telecoms need to be prosecuted.
Thanks to Lee Spector for the link.
Updated numbers on violent deaths in Iraq
I’ve cited the Lancet numbers myself (in qualified fashion), but maybe the estimate of a million Iraqi deaths is far too high:
A new survey estimates that 151,000 Iraqis died from violence in the three years following the U.S.-led invasion of the country…For the new study, however, surveyors visited 23 times as many places
and interviewed five times as many households. Surveyors also got more
outside supervision in the recent study; that wasn’t possible in the
spring of 2006 when the Johns Hopkins survey was conducted…"Overall, this is a very good study," said Paul Spiegel, a medical
epidemiologist at the United Nations High Commission on Refugees in Geneva.
"What they have done that other studies have not is try to compensate
for the inaccuracies and difficulties of these surveys, triangulating
to get information from other sources."
Here is more, here is the study itself. This new estimate is probably not the final word, but you will recall that anyone who questioned the older Lancet estimate was pilloried at length; there is a lesson here – Thy Shall Not Use Thy Blog to Squelch Heretics — and I am curious to see who will offer mea culpa and who will not. "The two estimates aren’t as different as they look" is one way of spinning it; "I was wrong" is another.
The most cited economics articles in the last five years
The source is REPEC, here is the list. I believe if I were starting out today, I would end up as a law professor, not an economist, though perhaps I would do economics in a legal guise.
I might add that number of citations and influence are, in my view, diverging. Steve Levitt has had a huge influence on economics, an influence which is underrepresented in his number of citations. You won’t cite him just because you’ve been inspired by the kind of paper he writes, and how many other economics papers are there on girls’ names or soccer kicks? Furthermore the more that economic research fragments, and becomes less theoretical, the more that the most cited papers are likely to be macroeconomics, as this list illustrates. At least macro papers will still share a common topic.
Hat tip to Economic Logic.
What I’ve Been Reading
1. India, by Michael Wood. This book looks ordinary but it is a wonderful (selective) history which captures the magic of India. Recommended to both the beginner and the expert.
2. Las Benévolas, by Jonathan Littell, the Spanish-language edition of this famous French novel just came out (I don’t read French). Here is the French edition. Here are some of the raves. Here is a critical review. I loved the first twenty pages and was bored by the next thirty. We’ll see how far I get in this Spanish-language edition of almost 1000 pages. My current best guess is that a WWII-themed novel of this kind simply can’t be that original. The French love it, perhaps, because an American-born writer wrote it in the French language.
3. Angus Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD. This is a good summary of knowledge about economic growth, by a premier empirical economist. But, as I am already familiar with the basic literature, I couldn’t find any reason to keep on reading.
4. The Geography of Bliss: One Grump’s Search for the Happiest Places in the World, by Eric Weiner. This book is well-written, witty, and deserving of its current bestseller status. At first I thought it was just fluff, but its applied, anecdotal, and travel-based approach gives one of the better windows on happiness across cultures. His particular observations are astute, especially on Switzerland and Thailand; in the latter case, referring to sex, he writes that something which cannot be shoved under the rug is now regarded as a piece of furniture.
5. Virginia Postrel on Ron Paul, no spam bots please.
Which sectors will prove technologically stagnant?
Megan McArdle writes:
As the Boomers age, they will consume fewer of the things that we produce efficiently, and more of the things that we provide relatively inefficiently.
Here is more, and I hereby take Megan to be a robot pessimist.
It is a revealing question to ask which sectors a person considers technologically stagnant. Baumol claimed it is the performing arts, but TV and the internet have belied this; it is true that those media are not *live* performance but that is substituting objective aesthetic judgment for what consumers really care about. People love Dexter, whether or not there is someone actually in the box. For stagnant sectors, I will nominate:
1. Haircuts, you might as well get them in Mexico
2. Automobiles (given the overall extent of technological progress, are they really so much better than in 1957?), although the $2500 car may change this
3. Spicy food, it seems best in relatively poor countries
I’m not yet sure about teaching. It seems to be a candidate but people are learning an awful lot from blogs these days; don’t fixate on delivering the old service the way we always have.
Your picks? Keep in mind that something has to be stagnant in relative terms, to date it sure isn’t computer chips but they raise the bar for the average. I expect pharmaceuticals and webcams to make it much easier to care for old people, but only on a per year of life basis; the number of years lived and thus total cost will rise too.
Assorted links
1. A new blog on movie box office
2. A video of Caroline Hoxby, on charter schools
3. Randall Collins on suicide bombers
Gang Leader for a Day
Here is my review of Sudhir Venkatesh’s Gang Leader for a Day: A Rogue Sociologist Takes to the Streets. I found this a difficult review to write. The book is very interesting and Venkatesh is one of the world’s best and leading social scientists (and I don’t say that lightly). Still, I thought his book was…how can I put it….somewhat evil, if I may call upon that old-fashioned concept. The book required him to work with, and often encourage, a vicious gang leader for up to six years. For instance:
J.T., the gang leader at the
center of the story, and of Mr. Venkatesh’s research, becomes wrapped
up in the idea of having his own biographer. Eventually it became his
obsession that Mr. Venkatesh record the details of his life, including
the shakedowns. In part, this was J.T.’s narcissism, and in part he
needed the motivation of an observer. Most of all, J.T. seemed to enjoy
having an audience: "I realized that he had come to rely on my
presence; he liked the attention, and the validation," Mr. Venkatesh
reports. None of J.T.’s underlings were qualified for the role of
courtier, but the highly intelligent and nonjudgmental Mr. Venkatesh
was perfect.
Here is my conclusion:
When it comes to understanding
the world, biography is truly the underappreciated method in the social
sciences. The life of the individual reveals what is otherwise hidden
in abstract numbers or faceless questionnaires. Mr. Venkatesh is to be
applauded for his path-breaking work and his compelling exposition.
He’s lucky that he didn’t have to pay a high price, but by the end of
the story the reader is wondering whether someone else might have, due
to Mr. Venkatesh’s unintended encouragement of J.T. Yes, evil really
can be attractive, and the biographical achievement here is splendid,
but when I return to the thought of encouraging and feeding the ego of
a gang leader for six years running, I can’t bring myself to be
attracted to this book.
I would recommend that you read Gang Leader for a Day, but ultimately I could not shy away from writing a negative review. Let me know what you think.
My micro-credit essay with Karol Boudreaux
From the Wilson Quarterly of this January, here is one excerpt:
For better or worse, microborrowing often entails a kind of Âbait Âand Âswitch. The borrower claims that the money is for a business, but uses it for other purposes. In effect, the cash allows a poor entrepreneur to maintain her business without having to sacrifice the life or education of her child. In that sense, the money is for the business, but most of all it is for the child. Such ÂlifeÂsaving uses for the funds are obviously desirable, but it is also a sad reality that many microcredit loans help borrowers to survive or tread water more than they help them get ahead. This sounds unglamorous and even disappointing, but the Âalternative–Âsuch as no doctor’s visit for a child or no school for a Âyear–Âis much Âworse.
The piece attempts to redress many myths of micro-credit. For instance it is often claimed that micro-credit doesn’t involve collateral, but that isn’t quite true. The borrowing is done in small groups, and if you don’t pay your share the neighbors come and take away your TV set. In reality micro-credit takes the collateral-seizing function away from the bank and puts it in the hands of our neighbors, thereby increasing loan repayment rates.
My favorite part of the piece is this:
Sometimes microcredit leads to more savings rather than more debt. That sounds paradoxical, but borrowing in one asset can be a path toward (more efficient) saving in other Âassets.
…Westerners typically save in the form of money or Âmoney-Âdenominated assets such as stocks and bonds. But in poor communities, money is often an ineffective medium for savings; if you want to know how much net saving is going on, don’t look at money. Banks may be a ÂdayÂlong bus ride away or may be plagued, as in Ghana, by fraud. A cash hoard kept at home can be lost, stolen, taken by the taxman, damaged by floods, or even eaten by rats. It creates other kinds of problems as well. Needy friends and relatives knock on the door and ask for aid. In small communities it is often very hard, even impossible, to say no, especially if you have the cash on Âhand.
…Under these kinds of conditions, a cow (or a goat or pig) is a much better medium for saving. It is sturdier than paper money. Friends and relatives can’t ask for small pieces of it. If you own a cow, it yields milk, it can plow the fields, it produces dung that can be used as fuel or fertilizer, and in a pinch it can be slaughtered and turned into saleable Âmeat or simply eaten. With a small loan, people in rural areas can buy that cow and use cash that might otherwise be diverted to less useful purposes to pay back the microcredit institution. So even when microcredit looks like indebtedness, savings are going up rather than down.
In other words, read Keynes’s chapter 17, go long on animals (liquidity premium exceeds carrying costs), go short on money (carrying costs exceed liquidity premium, at least in poor countries), and increase your future expected net wealth.
Vaccines don’t cause autism, in case you had residual doubts
Researchers from the [California] State Public Health Department found that the
autism rate in children rose continuously in the study period from 1995
to 2007. The preservative, thimerosal, has not been used in childhood
vaccines since 2001, except for some flu shots. Doctors
said that the latest study added to the evidence against a link between
thimerosal exposure and the risk of autism and that it should reassure
parents that vaccinations do not cause autism. If there was a risk, the doctors said, autism rates should have dropped from 2004 to 2007.
Here is the full story. Here are many other summaries.
Addendum: Kevin Drum and commentators add more.