Open Letter on Immigration

I have written an open letter on immigration reflecting the consensus opinion of economists on the major issues.  In cooperation with the Independent Institute I am looking for as many
signatures as possible from economists and other social scientists.  Brad DeLong, Greg Mankiw, Vernon Smith, Tyler Cowen and many others from both the left and the right have already signed on. 

You can sign by emailing your Name, Title and Organization.

I do hope that bloggers of all political stripes will circulate the letter.

The goal of the letter is not to cover all the issues but rather to say, ‘here is the hard-won consensus that economists have come to on these major issues.  By all means let us have a debate but let it be an informed debate.’

References and further information can be found here.

Here is the text.

Dear President George W. Bush and All Members of Congress:

People
from around the world are drawn to America for its promise of freedom
and opportunity. That promise has been fulfilled for the tens of
millions of immigrants who came here in the twentieth century.

Throughout
our history as an immigrant nation, those who are already here worry
about the impact of newcomers. Yet, over time, immigrants have become
part of a richer America, richer both economically and culturally. The
current debate over immigration is a healthy part of a democratic
society, but as economists and other social scientists we are concerned
that some of the fundamental economics of immigration are too often
obscured by misguided commentary.

Overall, immigration has
been a net gain for existing American citizens, though a modest one in
proportion to the size of our 13 trillion-dollar economy.

Immigrants
do not take American jobs. The American economy can create as many jobs
as there are workers willing to work so long as labor markets remain
free, flexible and open to all workers on an equal basis.

Immigration
in recent decades of low-skilled workers may have lowered the wages of
domestic low-skilled workers, but the effect is likely to be small,
with estimates of wage reductions for high-school dropouts ranging from
eight percent to as little as zero percent.

While a small
percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration,
vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants
make to our economy, including lower consumer prices. As with trade in
goods and services, the gains from immigration outweigh the losses. The
effect of all immigration on low-skilled workers is very likely
positive as many immigrants bring skills, capital and entrepreneurship
to the American economy.

Legitimate concerns about the impact
of immigration on the poorest Americans should not be addressed by
penalizing even poorer immigrants. Instead, we should promote policies,
such as improving our education system that enables Americans to be
more productive with high-wage skills.

We must not forget
that the gains to immigrants from coming to the United States are
immense. Immigration is the greatest anti-poverty program ever devised.
The American dream is a reality for many immigrants who not only
increase their own living standards but who also send billions of
dollars of their money back to their families in their home countries–a
form of truly effective foreign aid..

America is a generous
and open country and these qualities make America a beacon to the
world. We should not let exaggerated fears dim that beacon.

Sign here if you are in agreement.  Thanks!

Med Mal Talk

On Thursday morning I will be speaking in New York at the Harvard Club on my new Manhattan Institute study (with Amanda Agan), Medical Malpractice Awards, Insurance, and Negligence: Which are Related?  No link yet, the study will be released Thursday.

There is a reception, 8-8:30 am, followed by the seminar and questions, 8:30-9:30 am.  If you would like to attend RSPV to (212) 599-7000 and be sure and give me the secret MR signal at the club so I know who you are.

Bordeaux bleg

Next week I am headed to Bordeaux for the inaugural meeting of the Society for Quantitative Gastronomy.  How will they react to hearing I am not (yet?) much of a wine drinker?  They will be talking of Michelin stars and the econometrics of wine prices; I will be harping on Texas barbecue, Sichuan peppercorns, and why Hyderabad has the best Biryani. 

Your suggestions for Bordeaux, wine or otherwise, would be most welcome.  I might have a free day or two for a side trip as well.

Luxury markets in everything

Some khaki pants are now selling for as much as $1055; $400 and $500 khaki pants are becoming common.

See The Wall Street Journal, May 13-14, p.P7.  Makes you want to sign up with Peter Singer, doesn’t it?

One Saks Fifth Avenue fashion director noted: "For some of these brands, that’s a lot of money."

If you know of other absurd luxury markets, please mention them in the comments.

Questions about immigration

Following on my Op-Ed from yesterday, one loyal MR reader asks me, in an email, a few questions about immigration.  Here is my first cut at answers:

–Is there no amount of unskilled immigration that is too high? In other words, do you advocate open borders?

I don’t believe in open borders for today’s America.  I would increase current immigration quotas for all groups and allow illegals to move back and forth more readily.  Many current illegals would prefer to spend more time in their home country than is currently possible.  I don’t know exactly how much we can boost immigration and of course I don’t expect political progress on the issue.  But we should start with a twenty percent boost in the yearly quotas.    And how about another twenty percent increase two years later?

–Why do you have faith that federal policy can address the regionalized problems [with immigration] when you don’t trust federal policy to correctly judge which immigrant skills we ought to give priority?

I think the federal government is capable of giving more money to subsidize emergency rooms near the border.  This is an easier task than judging what professions we will need thirty years down the road.

–You mention the success of second-generation offspring of most immigrant groups, but let’s get real, this whole issue is about Mexicans, mostly, not Canadian economists. How have their offspring done? Of course, it might not even matter; if you’re right that a growing supply of unskilled labor isn’t bad, then does it make any difference if the second generation is also unskilled?

David Card and others have plenty of data on how well the second and third generations of Latinos do in assimilating and entering the mainstream of American life.  I find the overall portrait a reassuring one.  I will look for data on Mexicans per se and let you all know if I find anything useful. 

N.B.: If the quality of current Mexican immigration is "lower than you would like," keep in mind the current mix is partly an artifact of current immigration law, which encourages the least rooted and the most desperate to cross the border.   Young male teenagers are those who least mind being cut off from returning home.  Allowing immigrants to come and go would raise the quality of the pool.

Macro earthquake insurance

The Mexican government has tapped international markets to issue a
special catastrophe bond to finance rescue and rebuilding in case of a
disastrous earthquake, finance ministry…

Swiss Re, the Zurich-based reinsurance group, issued the bonds,
which pay 230 basis points over the Libor benchmark interest rate.

"If
there’s no disaster in three years," the finance minister, Francisco
Gil Diáz, said, "the investors keep the premium and the interest" and
get back the bond.

But if a quake hits, the  government gets the full value of the bonds, and investors lose their money.

Catastrophe
bonds were started in the 1990’s, and have largely been issued by
private companies to cover losses from natural disasters. Taiwan is the
only other government that has issued such a bond against a quake, but
it covers damages from losses.

In Mexico’s case, the government
collects the $450 million in the bonds and the insurance payout if a
quake of 7.5 or 8 magnitude on the Richter scale hits specific regions,
regardless of damage. Mr. González Anaya said that meant the government
would have money for rescue operations immediately after a disaster.

Mexico has a special fund for natural disasters but the fund has only $80 million.

Last
year, the Mexican government spent $1.2 billion to cover rescue and
rebuilding operations after Hurricanes Stan and Wilma. Mr. González
Anaya hopes to issue a similar kind of catastrophe bond against
hurricanes.

Here is the full story.

Four new journals

Less is certainly not more for the American Economic Association. According to David Warsh’s latest column, Broader, Deeper, they have adopted plans to produce four more economic journals, all titled – prosaically enough – American Economic Journal. They will cover macroeconomics, microeconomics, economic policy and applied economics.

Here is much more information.  Is this good news?  I fear greater fragmentation in an already-splintering profession.  Could this mean fewer idea pieces and greater room for excess specialization?  I like the idea of whacking commercial journal publishers but is it wise to centralize so much influence in one centrally-chosen set of editors?

Outsourcing Tutors

Tutoring companies figure: If low-paid workers in China and India can
sew your clothes, process your medical bills and answer your computer
questions, why can’t they teach your children, too?…

When Studyloft.com, a Chicago-based tutoring company with more than
6,000 clients, advertised in Bangalore for tutors with master’s
degrees, more than 500 people applied for 38 spots, according to Bikram
Roy, the firm’s founder and chief executive. "There is just a huge
hotbed of talent there in math and science," he said. "India has the
best tutors — the best teachers — in the world."

From the Washington Post.  It’s a shame immigration restrictions prevent more insourcing of the tutors.  Here is the most unintentionally funny comment:

Teachers unions are vigorously lobbying for legislation that would make
it more difficult for overseas tutors to receive No Child Left Behind
funds. Weil, of the American Federation of Teachers, said after-school
tutors should be required to pass the same rigorous certification
process as public school teachers.

Thanks to Ramin Seddiq for the pointer.

LA Times Op-Ed on immigration

I am again writing with the excellent Daniel M. Rothschild.  Read it here, registration is free and (relatively) simple.  Excerpt:

Gianmarco Ottaviano of the University of Bologna and Giovanni Peri of the National Bureau of Economic Research have shown that immigrants and low-skilled American workers fulfill very different roles in the economy. For instance, 54% of tailors in the U.S. are foreign-born, compared with less than 1% of crane operators. A similar discrepancy exists between plaster-stucco masons (44% immigrant) and sewer-pipe cleaners (less than 1% foreign-born). Immigrants come to the United States with different skills, inclinations and ideas; they are not looking to simply copy the behavior of American workers.

Addendum: Here is a link without registration.

Get Lucky or Get Rich Trying

The Why Not? guys, Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff, have another great idea (Forbes, reg. req.).  Instead of earmarking lottery revenues to education (which is mostly a charade since money is fungible), why not earmark the revenues to private retirement accounts?

A lottery savings ticket would look just like
a lotto ticket, scratch like a lotto ticket, cost a buck and pay out
the same prizes. The only difference would be that half the revenue
would be earmarked for a personal retirement savings account rather
than for education. There would still be about a third for prizes and
the remainder for administering the game.

Setting up a personal retirement account would
be no more difficult than setting up a mutual fund. Players would
receive a swipeable card that would automatically credit a portion of
each losing ticket to the player’s retirement account…

Some 20 million Americans spend at least
$1,000 a year on lottery tickets. For these heavy purchasers the new
tickets would increase their personal savings by $500 a year. Invested
over 40 years, these savings tickets would generate an expected
retirement nest egg of $200,000. This is a lot of money for the mostly
not very prosperous crowd who buy lottery tickets every week.

The biggest defect of the idea is that by lowering the price of lottery tickets it will increase the quantity demanded.  Nevertheless, I don’t think the elasticity is that high and I am confident that savings would go up.

It is incredible that many poor people spend more on lottery tickets than on retirement.  My non-bleeding heart libertarian friend would point out that this shows how much poverty is due to irresponsibility and he would probably be right.

Nevertheless, Adam Smith said the goal of social policy is to create institutions like the market that channel self-interest in ways that redound to the social interest.  Call me a libertarian paternalist, if you must, but I like how lottery savings tickets channel failures of reason and prudence in ways that redound to the individual’s self-interest.

Thanks to Carl Close for the pointer.

What are independent bookstores really good for?

Here is my new Slate piece.  Excerpt:

If you don’t like the superstores, it is easy enough to expand your
viewing horizons through other means. Just go to new sections of your
superstore (the best popular book on geology, gardening, or basketball
is very good, whether or not you like the topic). Stoop or
stretch to slightly uncomfortable levels. Use the stool. Peruse books
randomly. Look at other peoples’ discard piles. Spend more time in
public libraries, which offer many of the best features of indie
bookshops, including informed staff, diversity, and offbeat titles. Of
course, public libraries aren’t exactly atmospherically "cool." The
clientele is often young children, women over 40, and retired men. I
visit five public libraries on a regular basis, and each one makes me
feel old. But they deliver the goods.