Free trade websites

Here is a meta-blog on free trade from the Netherlands, but in English.

Here is translation by Wiki, in this case translating Bastiat into German.  How long will it take?

Here is my podcast with Ha-Joon Chang on free trade, courtesy of the Chronicle of Higher Education.  Chang is the author of Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism.  I believe in that myth and I try to hold his feet to the fire.

Department of Unintended Consequences, a continuing series

A rigorous statistical examination has found that smoking bans increase
drunken-driving fatalities. One might expect that a ban on smoking in
bars would deter some people from showing up, thereby reducing the
number of people driving home drunk. But jurisdictions with smoking
bans often border jurisdictions without bans, and some bars may skirt
the ban, so that smokers can bypass the ban with extra driving. There
is also a large overlap between the smoker and alcoholic populations,
which would exacerbate the danger from extra driving. The authors
estimate that smoking bans increase fatal drunken-driving accidents by
about 13 percent, or about 2.5 such accidents per year for a typical
county.

That’s coming out in the Journal of Public Economics, so it might even be true.  Here is the short source article, which surveys other interesting results as well; worth a read. 

Why is competition between health insurance companies useful?

Kevin Drum (and Matt Yglesias) asks an excellent and important question:

Tyler is arguing for keeping the insurance industry
competitive. But I simply don’t see what that buys us. Even if the
health insurance industry were dramatically improved, this wouldn’t
especially make healthcare any more efficient. It would only make the
insurance industry more efficient. That would be nice, but hardly
earthshaking…

Let me be clear: the incentives today are screwy.  Let me also tell you my ideal world.  Insurance companies are judged by honest third party intermediaries.  Insurance companies compete like heck to make customers satisfied.  Insurance companies monitor doctors, read Robin Hanson, and require evidence-based medicine.  Insurance companies which fail at these pursuits either go bankrupt or they must abide by an ex ante contract to permit the exile of their CEOs to Greenland.  Every year prices would fall in real terms, quality would improve, and coverage would be expanded.  Imagine the whole health care sector working like laser eye surgery or cosmetic surgery.

This is not the world we live in, but it is the world we should aim for and I am more than willing to consider how government might get us there.  (Mandating greater price transparency is but one step.)  But if we institute a single-payer system, or highly regulated mandates, we will never have much chance of arriving in that world.  Ever.  We will have a fairly static sector with high coverage levels but rising costs long term and less innovation. 

I believe we know why insurance companies don’t work this way, namely monitoring problems; they screw you over instead of serving you and they can get away with it.  Go ahead, call me a pollyanna, but modern information technology and measurement can indeed resolve many monitoring problems.  We can now monitor central bank performance quite well or show up in Sicily with a credit card and rent a car.  Neither was the case forty years ago.

Here is one summary of how health insurance companies are improving information technology for claims processing, medicine itself, and promoting evidence-based medicine.  I don’t mean this industry-supplied link to be a good summary of the current truth; take it as one vision of what might be possible.  To put the point another way, insurance companies are not just risk assessors or dollar transfer mechanisms; they also can be monitors and buyer agents and that is why competition is potentially so useful.

The policy point is not: "you must die today so that the reign of Milton Friedman can arrive in forty years’ time."  It is more like: "whatever transfers we wish to do today, let us proceed so that such a future remains someday possible."

Medical care is just starting to cure human beings, so don’t think the future will look like the past.  I know that preaching the virtues of insurance company competition is not a popular position in the blogosphere but like Arnold Kling, I see the single-payer advocates and mandate advocates as the conservatives, not the visionaries.

Addendum: A month or two ago, one MR reader left a long and very good comment about all the innovations provided by private health insurance companies.  I can’t find it, can any of you?  Please let us know in the comments or email me.

Addendum: Kevin Drum responds.

The costs and benefits of long-distance relationships

From The National Post, the main sources are Tim Harford and yours truly.  Excerpt:

The answer, says Mr. Cowen, lies in the Alchian-Allen Theorem. Developed in 1964 by economists Armen Alchian and William R. Allen, the theorem states that adding a per unit charge to the price of two substitute goods increases the relative consumption of the higher price good.

In layman’s terms, "you don’t take a long trip unless you are going to make it worth your while," he says. Very few people in a long-distance relationship are going to fly across the country just to hang out in sweatpants with their sweetheart.

The result is overblown expectations ("are we having fun now?") and excess pressure on the relationship.  Here is a previous MR post on this topic

China fact of the day

Like many developing countries, China gets little money from the personal income tax, which provides 6.5% of government revenue.  Most Chinese have never filed a tax return.

One implication is that a Chinese business slowdown and stock market crash would put a big dent in Chinese government revenue.  That is from today’s Wall Street Journal, p.A12, "In China, Collecting Income Tax Proves Problematic."

Book forum: Tim Harford’s chapter six on Schelling’s segregation model

Tim Harford has the best exposition of Tom Schelling’s segregation model I have read.  Maybe no one prefers segregation, but if you mind being a minority in a neighborhood an invisible hand process can lead to segregated outcomes.  Individuals will move closer to their compatriots, giving rise to an overall separation of groups.  This paper has some good models and fills out the main conditions behind the result.

But is it true?  Schelling would be the first to admit he created only a partial model.  Human genetics show more and more out-breeding over time.  Those first cousins just don’t cut it any more.  No, the earth isn’t flat but outmigration is increasing and many more people are choosing to live as minorities in foreign lands, most of all in the EU.  I live in Northern Virginia, one of the most successfully integrated regions of the United States, whether it be along lines of race, religion, or nationality.  Latino arrivals are concentrated in the American Southwest but over time they are spreading out to many other states.  What is the segregation model missing?

Gains from trade, in a nutshell.  If I’m the first Mexican to arrive in North Carolina, yes maybe I feel lonely.  But I also can fill some empty economic niches and overall it may beat East L.A.  Other immigrants will follow, but if too many come some of them will move on to South Carolina.  And so on.

High levels of inequality often bring more integration, at least in terms of spatial proximity.  Even with high rents there is a large community of Latinos living just outside of Aspen, Colorado.  Guess why.  They don’t live right next to the very rich but they do live among non-Latinos.  And the greater availability of cheap services is one reason I prefer life in the United States to Western Europe.  Cheap shipping of goods means I still can get French cheese and German books.

It is harder to ship services.  The more we become a service economy, the more you have to live near the people you trade with.

So what’s the problem in Newark, NJ or for that matter Northeast Washington?  Schelling’s model seems to work better there perhaps because of high unemployment and fewer services.  That said, both areas have seen considerable Latino integration over the last twenty years, as well as outmigration to the suburbs.

Thus the more general model starts with the idea of gains from trade and then asks when those gains won’t be especially strong, or when they won’t require much physical proximity.  Note that Schelling’s original paper, published in 1971, very much represents a 1960s perspective on its topic.

Addendum: Tim Harford also discusses urban crime and its control; here’s a good new paper on that topic.

Settling

The Atlantic Monthly had an interesting story on why women should settle for "Mr. Good Enough."  Eugene Volokh had some insightful comments.  I am sympathetic to the idea of modest expectations but I don’t favor cheerleading for settling.  More precisely I worry about The Paradox of the Underrated (is Shawn Marion still underrated?  Nope, and by the way Phoenix had nothing to lose from that deal).  If this article talks you into the prospect of settling, settling will start to seem pretty good to you.  If your expectations were too high in the first place you’ll keep your old set of unrealistic expectations (personalities and pathologies don’t change so quickly) and simply apply them to a new option, namely a marriage to a dullard.  "Settling" works best when you are stuck on a desert island and you do not expect so much from your surrender to the inevitable.  The AM article would do more good if it tried to convince people how terrible settling would be.  You just have to plant the idea in people’s minds, as they’ll make their own decisions anyway.

In other words, "have modest expectations — it will be great for you!!!" can’t really be winning advice.

Buy, hold, and slow down too!

If you get speeding tickets, watch out: The chances are good that
you will also engage in possibly dangerous investing behavior, too.
That is the implication of a new study that found that individuals who
receive more speeding tickets tend to churn their portfolios…They found that, other things being equal, an investor’s portfolio
turnover rate rose 11 percent after each additional speeding ticket he
received.

Here is the paper.  Here is a longer description of the piece.  The researchers do control for many variables, including age; the most likely conclusion is that there is a general propensity for thrill-seeking behind both speeding and trading behavior.  Do note this is a study of the Finns.

Addendum: Via Deron Bauman, here is a good article that sadness triggers consumer spending.

Interview with Paul Romer on Mauritius

Via Mark Thoma, here is an interview with Paul Romer about growth in Mauritius.  One question is how much Romer’s growth theory was needed to generate this advice.  Second, I am surprised how little attention he gives to Mauritius being a small country.  I don’t think that country size makes the advice much different, but perhaps expectations should be adjusted.  Most small countries aren’t well-diversified and their growth rates depend heavily on real shocks.  Singapore is an exception, most of all because its citizenry is obsessed with accumulating human capital and thus it depends upon a general flow of foreign capital rather than specific sectors.  I don’t see harm in Mauritius trying to follow this same path but I wouldn’t expect them to succeed to a comparable degree.

Speaking of small countries, Fred Sautet has an interesting blog post on what happened to the New Zealand reforms.  Since the reforms starting in the 1980s, New Zealand has had excellent economic policies, probably better than Mauritius can expect to implement.  But New Zealand has not had stunning rates of economic growth.  A big part of the answer is simply that New Zealand still depends on the demands for dairy and agriculture.  Yes, many parts of the country are booming but the worldwide demand for commodities is a big part of the reason why.  The deregulation of agriculture helped but without rising food prices growth would be lower yet.  Earlier, it was Britain’s removal of imperial preference in 1972 that sent the country tumbling over the edge in the first place.  Yes freedom is still better but in general small countries are less of an "economic laboratory" than we might think.  Conversely, while there are some good explanations for "the Irish miracle," a small country with a few million people can with good luck grow quite rapidly. 

Just think about the determinants of your own family income; probably for most years policy changes are not #1 on the list.  A country of 1.2 million people, such as Mauritius, is more diversifed than your family, but not as much more diversified as you might think.  When it comes to real factors, Say’s Law does hold.  Demand for your labor depends on the production decisions of 300 million mostly wealthy and often quite diversified Americans.  That offers your income a great deal of protection, relative to what suppliers on Mauritius can expect.

Winter reading

Here is a short piece of mine on Slate.com:

The Long Embrace: Raymond Chandler and the Woman He Loved by Judith Freeman. This book is essential to anyone looking for a) a love letter to Los Angeles, b) a chance to cultivate an obsession with Raymond Chandler, or c) a new model for writing intelligent nonfiction. It’s a colorful local history of the California metropolis in the first half of the 20th century plus an erotic biography with lots of speculative commentary interspersed, most of all on how Chandler conducted his unorthodox love life (he married a woman 18 years his senior). Freeman often veers into the first person, yet she retains some level of objectivity by always presenting multiple hypotheses. The Long Embrace sheds more light on its subject than do most standard biographies. It turns out that Chandler’s love for his wife, Cissy, is essential to understanding how he constructed his female temptresses. And in evoking a centerless Los Angeles, Freeman helps us appreciate the essential vision of the Chandlerian mystery: that people, like the vast cities they inhabit, are really unknowable.

Here is the whole winter books symposium.

Robbery fact of the day

In 2004, the total cost of all robberies in the United States was $525 million…every year, employees’ theft and fraud at the workplace are estimated at about $600 billion.

That contrast is from Dan Ariely’s Predictably Irrational.  Even if you add in auto theft, burglary, and larceny-theft, the former sum does not exceed $16 billion.

Addendum: Some people are questioning the $600 billion number, see the discussion in the comments.

Should we consider a gold standard?

Lawrence H. White responds to critics.  In my Cato email I received:

"A gold standard does not guarantee perfect steadiness in the growth of the money supply, but historical comparison shows that it has provided more moderate and steadier money growth in practice than the present-day alternative, politically empowering a central banking committee to determine growth in the stock of fiat money," White concludes. "From the perspective of limiting money growth appropriately, the gold standard is far from a crazy idea.”

"Far from a crazy idea," OK.  But would you push the button for it?  I say no.  There is little doubt that over the broad sweep of world history, commodity standards have outperformed paper money.  But we don’t live in the broad sweep of world history, we live in 2008 and our ability to monitor and control central banks is unparalleled.  The central banks of the wealthier nations work pretty well.  My main worry with the gold standard is simply the pro-cyclicality of the money supply and for all its talk of money demand the paper doesn’t much address this concern.  For instance would you really want a contracting money supply in today’s environment?  And yes credit crunches of this kind happen in market settings too so you can’t blame it all on Alan Greenspan. 

And I am not reassured by this (admittedly true) sentence: "At the right reentry rate, dollar prices would not need to jump [from the transition]."  One five or ten percent deflation is enough to crush the economy and indeed the whole gold standard idea.  Given the socialist calculation debate, can we really know the right transition price?  Gold at $900 an ounce?  $600 an ounce?  Anybody?

Addendum: Here is White’s response; see also the exchange in the comments with White and others.

What I’ve Been Reading

1. Uncouth Nation: Why Europe Dislikes America, by Andrei S. Markovits.  Not the usual swill on this topic; sadly the main prediction of this book is that the passing of Bush will not make America much more popular in Europe.  Read this short article on the same.

2. Dante, Paradiso, translated by Robert and Jean Hollander.  There still is not a gripping English-language Paradiso on the market, as the Mandelbaum translation is flawed as well and don’t ever trust Penguin translations with anything.  This one doesn’t elevate me as the text should.  But it has the best notes of any edition, is laid out most nicely, and is the best for trying to follow the Italian and cross-reference the translation.  If you buy only one English-language Paradiso maybe it is this one.  An alternative is the Henry Wadsworth Longfellow edition, lyrical but archaic, on-line for free.

3. Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History, by Jurgen Brauer and Hubert van Tuyll.  The table of contents looks amazing, but my browsing indicated this book to be boring.  Still, some of you should read it.  It is full of factual substance, slotted into an economic framework.

4. Americanos: Latin America’s Struggle for Independence, by John Chasteen.  Every now and then a history book sweeps you up into its world; this one did it for me, most of all the treatment of Alexander von Humboldt but from beginning to end as well.  The best and most readable book on its topic.

5. William Gibson, Neuromancer.  Wow, this is now twenty-four years old.  I’m teaching it next week in Law and Literature class.  Upon rereading what strikes me most is how little science fiction it offers and how much it follows in the stylistic footsteps of Hammett and Chandler.