Silly guessing games

I like to wonder how many of the travelers in an airport are from the local area.  And what features of a city suggest a high proportion of locals in the airport?

For instance do small cities have high percentages of locals in their airports?  There are fewer locals to fill the place with, but not many New Yorkers fly to Greensboro, North Carolina.

At a given airport, it should matter whether the people of that area like to travel, whether no one else wants to visit that area, and whether that airport is a hub for switching flights.

It is easy to pick Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver as airports with many non-locals.  But which airports have high percentages of locals?  That means travel-hungry people from a boring, non-touristy, non-hub city.  Minneapolis anyone?

How to get started with opera

First I assume we are talking about recorded opera (most opera on DVD bores me, too static, though many swear by it), but of course go live when you can.  My core view is that people "do well" with culture when they feel they are in control, and tune out otherwise.  So pick one area and master it, or at least get intrigued, rather than trying to survey all of opera.  Those "introductory" books are probably counterproductive, if only because they let you know how much ground there is to cover.  Who could possibly master five different recordings of Parsifal?

Here are a few areas to start with:

1. Mozart: Get Abbado’s Magic Flute (a new recording, truly splendid, one of the best of 2006 or any year), the Rene Jacobs Figaro, and the Colin Davis Don Giovanni.  If you love those, move on to Cosi Fan Tutte and then Beethoven’s Fidelio.

The Ingmar Bergman film of Magic Flute is perhaps the single most inspiring introduction to opera, even if they are singing in Swedish.  It is cinematic in conception, rather than a mere film of a performance, thus avoiding the DVD problem.

2. Italian opera: Start with Rossini’s Barber of Seville, Gobbi/Callas, then either Verdi or Puccini, in the former case La Traviata (many good versions) or Aida (Karajan), in the latter case start with La Boheme (Beecham).  Move out into Donizetti (The Elixir of Love, bubbling and playful erotic fun) and the rest of Verdi, culminating in Otello and Falstaff, his greatest and deepest works, no organ grinder music there.

3. Wagner: Go for some extended excerpts, most notably Kempe’s one-disc condensation of Das Rheingold (better than the full-length version), this four-disc set of scenes, or Act One of Tristan und Isolde, by either Karl Boehm or James Levine.  Work up to Parsifal or Valkyries, but in my view Act One of Tristan was his peak and this remains music’s greatest erotic/death-wish experience, so good it is dangerous, maybe you should just stop reading this blog.

If you are putting on four discs of Flying Dutchman, Tannhaeuser, or Goetterdaemmerung, and hoping to make sense of it, your planning has gone badly wrong.

4. Twentieth century: Start with the fun, accessible works, like Glass’s Einstein on the Beach, Robert Ashley’s Improvement, or Michael Nyman’s The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat.  Over time head to Stravinsky, Schoenberg, Ligeti, Messiaen, Lachenmann, Mercury/May and many others.

If you want to leap into the unique and the complex, consider Monteverdi’s Orfeo, Tchaikosvky’s Queen of Spades, Strauss’s Capriccio, or Debussy’s Pelleas and Melisande.  Liszt fantasies and transcriptions are a good entry point into opera, that is how I got my start, his Robert de Diable Meyerbeer transcription (played by Earl Wild, among others) has to be heard to be believed, same with his Norma fantasy, after Bellini.

Arguably Bach’s St. Matthew’s Passion is the greatest opera of them all, but that is another story.

By the way, few of the libretti are worth knowing beyond a plot overview; Don Giovanni is a notable exception, Der Rosenkavalier is another.  Keep in mind that a lot of opera simply isn’t very good.  The biggest problem is too much filler, even in the true classics.  Don’t let these boredom traps keep you away from some of music’s highest peaks.

The free lunch

Ours and yours, forget about the theory of tax incidence.  Just type in /marginalrevol-20 after any Amazon link, and we get a small chunk of the proceeds.  Alternatively, go to the Amazon box on the right side of this blog, just above the site meter.  It costs you nothing, and we thank you in advance. 

We do get some review copies, but most of the books we cover we buy with our own money.  The small extra income we get from Amazon referrals allows us to buy many more and give you a better sense of what is going on in the world of ideas.  I do collect CDs, but not books, which I treat as a burden.  If you are wondering, most of the books reviewed end up donated to the Harper Library at The Institute for Humane Studies, itself a worthy cause.

How did Friedman differ from Keynes?

Brad DeLong and Greg Mankiw offer insightful comments on Friedman and Keynes.  On macroeconomics, what does the difference boil down to?  I can think of a few possibilities:

1. Keynes thought a horizontal LM curve ("the liquidity trap") was possible, but Friedman did not.  This was Friedman’s own view, at least as expressed in Milton Friedman’s Monetary Framework.  Without a horizontal LM curve, monetary policy can always pull the economy out of a downturn.

2. Keynes emphasized volatile flows, Friedman emphasized stocks of wealth; a stocks view should imply greater macro stability.

3. Keynes challenged the assumption of gross substitutability, and therefore thought that price and wage flexibility could lead to a downward spiral of falling prices and incomes.  Wage and price stickiness was not so much an assumption for him as a policy recommendation.  Friedman viewed stickiness as a necessary evil, stemming from the general imperfection of the world.

4. Friedman thought that the liquidity premium on money was unlikely to keep interest "too high"; for Friedman the interest rate is determined solely in the loanable funds market by time preference and productivity, a’la Irving Fisher.

5. For Keynes the demand for investment was inherently unstable, for "beauty contest" reasons.  Friedman viewed expectations as "adaptive," and tracking the world with a lag, rather than tracking the expectations of other people.

6. Friedman simply had more faith in the self-adjusting nature of the market, and #1-#5, and other possibilities, were mere epiphenomena of this broader philosophical difference.

The Price is Right

One of the most bizarre aspects of the organ shortage is that it is illegal to pay for cadaveric organs for use in transplants but it is legal to pay for cadavers.  That’s right, it’s illegal to pay people to donate their organs for the purpose of saving lives but medical schools can pay people to donate their bodies so that plastic surgeons can practice their nip and tuck.   

In a remarkable paper forthcoming in Cato’s Regulation and reported in the Washington Post, economists David Harrington and Edward Sayre take the argument one step further.  Medical schools regularly offer to pay funeral expenses for whole body donation.  So does the offer of payment deter altruistic donation and decrease the supply, as we have been told could occur if we were to compensate organ donors?  Of course not.  In fact, Harrington and Sayre note that the offer to pay funeral expenses is worth more in states where the funeral industry is heavily regulated and thus prices are high and, just as predicted in Econ 101, the supply of whole body donations is higher in those states.

It’s time to lift the price control on human organs, relieve the shortage and save lives.

What I’ve been reading

1. Michael Crichton, Next. Yes it is "writing-by-numbers," yes it is better than his recent work, but no, it is not nearly as good as Jurassic Park, Sphere (my favorite), Congo, or for that matter his book on Jasper Johns.  Some critics like it.  The start is OK but it falls apart as it proceeds.  By the way, here is my previous post on human-chimp hybrids

2. Robert Bolaño, Distant Star.  A minor masterpiece.  He is another of those first-tier Latin writers, along with Asturias and Rulfo, who for mysterious reasons no one in the United States seems to read.

3. Richard Powers, The Echo Maker.  A deserving winner of a National Book Award, plus I am interested in the neurology theme.  I find many of Power’s earlier books too intellectualized, but this one held my attention throughout.  By the way, I also tried the non-fiction National Book winner, the book about the Dust Bowl years, but it didn’t hold my interest.

4. The Poor Always Pay Back: The Grameen II Story, by Asif Dowla and Dipal Barua.  A very good look at the micro-credit movement.

Addendum: The NYT picks its ten best books of the year.

The case for economic turbulence?

Here is my Wall Street Journal review of Clair Brown, John Haltiwanger, and Julia Lane, Economic Turbulence: Is a Volatile Economy Good for America?  Excerpt:

In short, America is not becoming
a nation of part-time Wal-Mart cashiers or burger flippers.  In four of
the five sectors studied by the authors–semiconductors, software,
financial services, retail food and trucking–the growth rate for
full-time jobs exceeds the growth rate for jobs in general.  (Retail
food is the exception.)  Separate research, conducted by Ann Huff
Stevens at the University of California, Davis, shows that the average
tenure for employed U.S. male laborers has been broadly stable over the
past 35 years.

Insofar as individuals move to
lower-paying jobs, the turnover of firms is not the driving cause.  The
most original proposition in "Economic Turbulence" is the claim that a
big part of measured wage declines derives from job downgrades within
firms–sticking with the same employer but moving from, say, mid-level
manager to gopher. 

Mexican immigration

Here is my New York Times column; the topic is familiar but the slant is new: I consider the problematic incentives for Mexican education.  Here is the beginning of the problem:

A high school diploma brings higher wages in Mexico,
but in the United States the more educated migrants do not earn
noticeably more than those who have less education. Education does not
much raise the productivity of hard physical labor. The result is that
the least educated Mexicans have the most reason to cross the border.
In addition, many Mexicans, knowing they may someday go to the United
States, see less reason to invest in education.

Here is another commonly neglected point:

Unfortunately, we cannot expect a wealthier Mexico to resolve migration
problems, at least not within the short- or even medium-run. The
evidence suggests that good times in Mexico give the poor the means to
leave, while keeping the better-educated males at home in good jobs.

More economists get picked up

The Economist blog reports:

We have also heard that Doug Holtz-Eakin, another former Bush administration official who went on to head the Congressional Budget Office, will be John McCain’s top economic advisor. Mr Holtz-Eakin is giving up his current job–running the Centre for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations–to work full-time for the McCain team.

Thanks to Martin Scriblerus for the pointer.

From WSJ Washington Wire

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s less-than-stealth positioning to join the
2008 presidential race took another baby step forward today, when two noted
economists – former chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisors Glenn Hubbard
and Greg Mankiw – signed on to lead his PAC’s Economic Advisory Council. Another
former Bush official, Cesar
Conda
, also signed on.

Thanks to Carrie Conko for the pointer.