Friday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. David Brooks offers some Sidney awards, including to Works in Progress (NYT).

2. If you are the Lakers, of course you should have traded for the new superstar, namely Luka.  But by now it is clear the trade actually will not work out so well, and Dallas is better off with Cooper Flagg.

3. “The threat to German auto producers isn’t from Chinese cars flooding Germany. It’s from Chinese cars flooding to emerging markets (red), where they’re killing the market for German cars. That’s not something EU tariffs on China are going to be able to fix.” Link here.

4. Why everyone loves Japan.

5. The brother Megan McArdle lost.

6. “Our Archivara Math Research Agent (in alpha) just became the first AI system to fully solve an Erdős problem on its own (zero human input or literature online).” Link here.

7. Israel just recognized Somaliland.

Scientific discoveries will be made by the young

by  Tyler Cowen in

The astronomy world was recently shaken by a discovery from an unexpected source: a teenager still in high school. Matteo Paz, a student from Pasadena, utilized archival data from NASA’s retired NEOWISE mission to bring 1.5 million invisible cosmic objects into the light.

During a stint at Caltech’s Planet Finder Academy, and mentored by astrophysicist Davy Kirkpatrick, Paz took a novel approach to data analysis. He built a unique machine learning model capable of sifting through a staggering 200 billion infrared records. In a span of only six weeks, his AI detected subtle patterns that human analysts had missed, identifying everything from distant quasars to exploding supernovas.

Here is the link, via Shruti.

Cayman (U.S.) fact of the day

by  Tyler Cowen in

Over the past four years, hedge funds have doubled their footprint in the U.S. debt market, making the Cayman Islands — where many hedge funds are officially based — the place where the most U.S. debt outside the United States is held, according to the Fed. Typically, people flock to Treasuries for safety in times of crisis. Yet, driven in large part by hedge fund activity, the Treasury market went through unusual turbulence during recent shocks, including the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 and President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025.

And this:

By the early 2010s, these foreign governments made up over 40 percent of Treasury holdings, excluding those the Federal Reserve held. That was up from just over 10 percent in the mid-1990s…Foreign governments now make up less than 15 percent of the overall Treasury market.

Here is more from Geng Ngarmboonanant at the NYT.

Will AI Improve Undergraduate Economics Education?

by  Tyler Cowen in

From the excellent Matt Kahn:

For decades, undergraduate economics educators have followed a well-worn playbook featuring textbooks, lectures and problem sets. Students have passively listened, taken notes and studied for exams. AI disrupts this educational process. Some students are using this tool as a substitute for their own precious time. What is our best response? This paper provides a prospective analysis of how to restructure every phase of the undergraduate economics experience to improve the major and better prepare students for their uncertain future. Departments face a principal/agent issue in implementing major  curricular reforms. I discuss the incentive problems that arise both within economics departments and across departments. If we win this competition to reimagine the undergraduate experience, will the Deans reward us?

TC again: No.

Emergent Ventures India, 15th cohort

by  Tyler Cowen in

Adnan Abbasi, 25, founder of Thothica, received his grant to add an archive reader to make rare historical texts accessible using AI-powered translation. Also check out his AI generated debate between Nehru and Hayek.

Dheemanth Reddy, co-founder of Maya Research, received his grant to build Veena – cutting-edge speech models for English and Indian languages as naturally spoken by Indians.

Ritisha Sethi, 16, a high schooler from Lucknow, received her grant to develop Qubit Quest, her solution to help learn quantum computing through gamification.

Jnanendra K S received his grant to convert vintage cars to EVs in his automotive mechanic shop.

Sankalp Shrivastava, 21, self-taught developer and entrepreneur from Bhopal, received his grant for general career development.

Bharath H G received his grant to build a robotic system safely cleaning manholes remotely.

Sarthak Pandit, an engineering student, received his grant for building a wireless drone recharging system to eliminate manual battery swaps.

Namrata Rajagopal received her grant for Exception Raised – a grants program to enable India’s AI research ecosystem through funding, community, and mentorship. Check out their first cohort.

CEDA (Center for Economic Data and Analysis) at Ashoka University, received a grant to build the Economic Enterprises Tool, to integrate datasets delivering harmonized indicators across India’s enterprises.

Saransh Duharia received his grant for Garudakshak, to build a smart drone detection and neutralization system for civil use.

Aditya Gupta, 21, received his grant to develop a breath diagnostics tool screening for complex gut disorders non-invasively.

Farraz Mir received his grant for a bioinformatics automation project saving researchers time and lowering barriers to entry.

Yasmin Qureshi, 20, received her grant for travel and career development.

Jainul Abedin received his grant to scale Abyom SpaceTech, and develop India’s first reusable rocket and commercial rocket engine testing facility.

Kunjpreet Arora, 27, received his grant for Angirus, to transform plastic and industrial waste into waterproof, low-carbon bricks.

Vrinda Borkar, 30, received her grant for Wingrow Agritech, to develop agricultural markets for small farmers.

Those unfamiliar with Emergent Ventures can learn more here and here. The EV India announcement is here. More about the winners of EV India second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth cohorts. To apply for EV India, use the EV application, click the “Apply Now” button and select India from the “My Project Will Affect” drop-down menu.

And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.

If you are interested in supporting the India tranche of Emergent Ventures, please write to me or to Shruti at [email protected].

Christmas assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. When were the Tylers born?

2. India is prepping for major economic reforms (FT).

3. One view on why computers cannot be conscious.

4. “America’s six largest banks added $600bn in market value in 2025, spurred on by the Trump administration’s push to deregulate the industry and a revival in investment banking.” (FT)  This is one reason why gdp growth has been robust.  Whatever you think of bank regulation more generally, in 2025 we needed less of it, not more.

5. Inmates could escape jail on drones (Times of London).

6. What do soccer tickets cost in New Jersey?

7. The origins of European thought on new discoveries.

8. Titanic, Hagen, 33-minute Guatemalan/Mexican musical avant-garde creation.  Here is some background (NYT).  I am growing increasingly bullish on Latin American and also Spanish-language music.  I will be following it more closely in 2026.

Marginal Returns to Public Universities

by  Tyler Cowen in

From Jack Mountjoy, forthcoming in the QJE:

This paper studies the returns to enrolling in American public universities by comparing the long-term outcomes of barely admitted versus barely rejected applicants. I use administrative admission records spanning all 35 public universities in Texas, which collectively enroll 10 percent of all American public university students, to systematically identify and employ decentralized cutoffs in SAT/ACT scores that generate discontinuities in admission and enrollment. The typical marginally admitted student gains an additional year of education in the four-year sector, becomes 12 percentage points more likely to ever earn a bachelor’s degree, and eventually earns 8 percent more than their marginally rejected but otherwise identical counterpart. Marginally admitted students pay no additional tuition costs thanks to offsetting grant aid; cost-benefit calculations show internal rates of return of 26 percent for the marginal students themselves, 16 percent for society (which must pay for the additional education), and 7 percent for the government budget. Earnings gains are similar across admitting institutions of varying selectivity, but smaller for students from low-income families, who spend more time enrolled but complete fewer degrees and major in less lucrative fields. Finally, I develop a method to separately identify effects for students on the extensive margin of attending any university versus those on the margin of attending a more selective one, revealing larger effects on the extensive margin.

That is one simple way of seeing why I do not think of higher education as largely signaling, noting that signaling theories might give you a higher wage up front but not over extended periods of time, as worker quality becomes known.

Wyoming has as many Senators as escalators?

by  Tyler Cowen in

There used to be a third set of escalators, in the Cheyenne JCPenney building, but it was lost when JCPenney moved to the Frontier Mall and the escalator was removed when the old building was renovated…

What’s more interesting is the ages of Wyoming’s escalators…

In Casper, the First Interstate Bank building was built in 1958, while the Hilltop Bank opened in December 1979. The escalators were part of the original design of both buildings.

It’s not just that there are only two escalators in Wyoming, there hasn’t been a new one in 44 years.

Here is the article, but maybe there are some very new ones?  Via Tommy Smokes.

Year end CWT retrospective episode with Jeff Holmes

by  Tyler Cowen

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  In this episode we look back on the year in CWT podcast space, excerpt:

HOLMES: Yes. All right. Next question from Jumfrey Tuckins: “When was the last time you had uncontrollable laughter, and what caused it?”

COWEN: Probably the correct answer is never. Literally never in my life.

HOLMES: Aw, Tyler.

COWEN: Why should it be uncontrollable? Things just aren’t that funny. How good can something taste? Take the best sushi I’ve ever had, which was quite good. Things can taste a bit better than that, but not much. Funniness is a maximum. It does not bring me to uncontrollable laughter. That’s just the equilibrium.

HOLMES: This is consistent with how you presented yourself before, where you’ve talked about how you feel like you don’t have the extreme highs and lows of other people. You’re much more of a steady middle kind of person. Either displeasureor pleasure, you don’t get the extremes as much.

COWEN: Isn’t uncontrollable laughter in some ways a kind of displeasure? I don’t know, since I’ve never had it.

HOLMES: In the sense that sometimes, if you get tickled, sometimes you’re laughing, but you want it to stop.

COWEN: Right.

HOLMES: No, I think what that’s getting at is those times where something has just so metaphorically tickled you that you — usually, it’s with another person.

COWEN: Not going to happen. Sorry.

HOLMES: That makes me a little sad.

COWEN: Maybe just you’re not funny enough. Have you considered that?

HOLMES: Oh, shots fired, Tyler. Oh, my gosh.

COWEN: I don’t mean you, but you, collective humanity.

HOLMES: Okay, collective you. All right.

COWEN: I heard Louis C.K. live, which is the funniest show I’ve ever heard. I laughed quite a bit, but I was not close to uncontrollably laughing.

HOLMES: Do you have any theory as to why that is? When that happens, again, there’s something that you and another person are experiencing together, that you’ve realized you’ve had the same thought or same experience, and it’s just —

COWEN: I suspect it’s heritable, with apologies to Alison Gopnik.

Rrecommended, and of course this year there will be much more to come.

Which published results can you trust?

by  Tyler Cowen in

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, starting with the recent Oliver Sacks debacle.  Here is one excerpt:

…as my George Mason University colleague Bryan Caplan suggests, trust literatures, not individual research studies. By a “literature,” I mean the collective work conducted by many researchers, acting in decentralized fashion, to publish and circulate the results that will best persuade other researchers.

Second, treat research articles, or their popular media coverage, as possibilities to put in your mental toolbox rather than settled truths.

Literatures are more trustworthy than individual articles because they reflect a collective effort to establish reliable results. A supposed correlation gets refereed and scrutinized dozens of times, or maybe hundreds of times. If you have a new hypothesis, other researchers have a chance to make their names by knocking it down. There are also more eyes watching, in case real-world experience delivers results at odds with what a particular theory had been postulating. Or maybe there was a simple mistake in writing the computer code behind the paper’s result. Literatures contain a variety of different ways to come to a particular conclusion, and you can see whether they end up pointing in the same general direction.

You may not have time or the background to master a complete literature on a research topic, but these days you can send well-written prompts to GPT 5.2 Pro, Claude Opus 4.5, or Gemini 3.0 for some very good summaries of any literature you want. Furthermore, you can cross-check across these different AI models for additional reliability.

This is useful advice which is rarely heeded, and learning how to interpret a research literature is one of the most important skills in intellectual life.