Struan Moffett on South Africa (from my email)
I think one important point you missed is that South Africa’s recent (and ancient) history has forced the population to work quite aggressively through racial differences at speeds that other developed nations have not. ‘Racial harmony’ would be a stretch, but I would say that most (all?) South African’s have a ‘racial understanding’. South Africa is also very post-racial in the sense that most understand racial differences to actually be cultural differences – for myself, growing up English in Durban, I felt more of a kinship with educated Indians than with the (white) Afrikaners. It would make absolutely no sense from a strictly Western perspective that the English and the Afrikaners (both ‘white’) couldn’t be more different!
Here is my original post.
Driving cross-country
I have driven cross-country four times, at least if you count a 3/4 trip as valid. I also have driving experience in virtually all states, including Hawaii and Alaska, neither of which would be part of typical cross-country travel.
I recommend this mode of transport highly, especially for the United States. Here are a few observations:
No matter which route you take, so often Mexican food is your best option.
I most prefer the southern route, involving Memphis, Texas, and southern Utah/north rim of the Grand Canyon. Do I have to tell you no major highways?
The extreme northern route is better than the middle route. Visit Duluth.
The music you bring is essential. While this will depend on your taste, in general try to have some regional music to match your route. Dylan and also folk music sound good in most parts of the country. CDs can be a better medium than online music for these trips. Do not listen to music when you start your day’s drive, however, as you will end up burnt out. Save it for after a few hours of driving. Nor should you listen to too much high energy music. Woody Guthrie is better than Led Zeppelin in this setting.
How much you should roll down car windows, vs. relying on air conditioning, is a critical decision. The correct answer will depend on the route and time of year, but please do not screw this one up. Usually I like windows down, but with raised windows you can hear the music better.
Salads in the Midwest can be good.
In Texas and Oklahoma you may see some amazing storms. Texas is the best state for random food stops.
Use paper maps, GPS may bring you along too efficient a route.
Issues of children aside, optimal group size is two, no larger. To avoid least common denominator effects.
You can do these trips at any pace you want, even an hour in a place can teach you a good deal.
You could do a trip simply by stopping in every interesting place in New Jersey, one of the smallest states.
I prefer Vermont to New Hampshire, at least for driving purposes. I also prefer Montana to Wyoming, the latter for me being beautiful but somehow quite a boring state outside of Yellowstone? You cannot spend too much time in Utah.
Oregon is one state where I never have been driving. Is that a great loss? I know only Portland there.
Driving cross country, or only parts of it, is the very best way to see America.
What should I ask Bob Spitz?
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him, Wikipedia here. I very much enjoyed his new book on the Rolling Stones, plus he has many older books of note, including on the 1969-1970 Knicks, Woodstock, Ronald Reagan, Bob Dylan, the Beatles, Led Zeppelin, and Julia Child. All good books! He also for a while worked as manager to both Bruce Springsteen and Elton John.
So what should I ask him?
Friday assorted links
1. Trump’s focus on cultural issues (NYT).
2. Claims about Mythos (speculations). And a claim that the power of Mythos is being exaggerated.
3. The wage returns on industry credentials.
4. 2026 Roots of Progress blog-building intensive program.
5. Brian Albrecht reviews The Marginal Revolution.
6. Those new service sector jobs.
7. Harvard Crimson on Ludwig Straub.
8. How and why the Democratic Party has been evolving? Less interest in predistribution?
A market-based solution to NBA draft tanking?
Zach Lowe shares a tanking solution idea that came up in the GMs meeting that intrigued a few General Managers:
A proposal to not get rid of the draft entirely, but get rid of the draft order. Every team gets 100 draft credits let’s say. You bid your draft credits on every individual slot in the draft. You can also trade your draft credits like a veteran player for 40 draft credits if you want to go in a rebuilding direction. As teams advance in the playoffs, they lose draft credits so the best teams would have less to bid on individual picks. So you can take all your credits and bid on the number 1 pick in the draft if you want. Or if you think next years draft is better, you roll your credits over.
Can that work? Here is the tweet.
Cape Town estimate of the day
From young professionals to the working poor, many Cape Town residents complain that out-of-control housing prices have forced them to live far from the jobs, affluent schools and healthy supermarkets available in the city center. They blame deep-pocketed tourists for occupying housing in prime locations and developers for pricing them out.
Some 70 percent of the downtown residential housing stock is dedicated to hotel rooms or short-term rentals, according to a report the city released last year.
“The city’s actually being upgraded for tourists,” said Lizanne Domingo, a telemarketer. She takes a daily two-hour commute to work each way because she can’t afford to live close to the city, she said. “It’s not for our own people because the cost of living is ridiculously expensive.”
…housing prices in the city have surged 38 percent over the past six years.
Here is more from the NYT. It is one of the very best places in the world to visit right now.
South African discussions
These days South Africa is one of the best places to go to have interesting conversations. Obviously an English-fluent country does have many people following Trump, Islam in Europe, and so on. But you can have so many conversations about quite different topics, topics that are hardly covered in other parts of the world.
Like South Africa. But not only. The southern part of Africa too. People who live there are on the whole quite historically aware, since their history remains so influential on a day-to-day basis. I recall being introduced to one person who is a “Huguenot,” as his ancestors came over with the 100 or so Huguenots who came to South Africa in the 1680s. He is in fact a Huguenot.
Since the Gini coefficient of South Africa is about the same as the Gini coefficient of the world, South Africans are typically thinking about problems that are pretty close to the problems of the world as a whole. That is not usually the case for say Americans or Brits.
Few South Africans will underrate the importance of Africa for the world’s future.
It is easy to get into conversations with people from Zimbabwe, Malawi, Congo, and sometimes Nigeria. There are also readily accessible Jewish and Muslim communities, yet with perspectives different from what you might find elsewhere.
There is plenty of religion, if that is your interest. Plenty of good music too, sometimes on the street. An excellent arts scene, and past Kentridge probably you have not heard of any of the creators. The art too gives you a lot to talk about.
All sorts of tribes and languages, many of which I had never heard of before.
The European parts of the citizenry have some pre-Enlightenment origins and overall do not seem incredibly Woke. Your mileage there may vary, but again it is different from the educated classes in many other parts of the west.
Again for better or worse, but the “trad wife” phenomenon seems quite normal there, they might just use the word “wife.”
In some parts of the country, you can watch gentrification in reverse.
Most of all, South Africans have a finely-tuned sense of contingency. Things for them could go pretty well, or they could go pretty badly. Most people know that, and perhaps that is the greatest wisdom yet? Many of the rest of us try to deny that.
Visiting South Africa makes so many things transparent, or at least less opaque. Go!
New Emergent Ventures tranche on science policy and communication
American science policy is now more important than at perhaps any previous point in history—how science is organized and funded (or not funded) in this country continues to rise in significance.
I have also spoken about the undersupply of people who understand this and are trying to act on it in Washington. Unfortunately the career paths here are neither well-defined nor well-regarded. I would like to help change that.
What we’re looking for:
- Priority 1: Metascience Policy Entrepreneurs in DC
- Funding for individuals working at the intersection of science policy and institutional reform—people who can shape how Congress and federal agencies think about science funding and governance.
- Priority 2: Science and Metascience Communicators
- Funding for communicators via any medium—bloggers, journalists, authors, podcasters, artists, filmmakers, conveners, influencers, event organizers—who can expand the reach of pro-science ideas beyond their current audience.
We are doing this with and thank Renaissance Philanthropy for the support. You can apply through the regular Emergent Ventures portal.
Thursday assorted links
1. The “estrangement” from philosophy of economics.
2. Investing in scientific instruments.
3. New book coming on Carlsen vs. Niemann.
4. Houston economy growing at more than ten percent (and that is even without moving forward on bike paths).
AI, Unemployment and Work
Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? Catastrophic even. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 3-day working week. Sounds great, right? Wonderful even. Yet to a first approximation these are the same thing. 60% of people employed and 40% unemployed is the same number of working hours as 100% employed at 60% of the hours.
So even if you think AI is going to have a tremendous effect on work, the difference between catastrophe and wonderland boils down to distribution. It’s not impossible that AI renders some people unemployable, but that proposition is harder to defend than the idea that AI will be broadly productive. AI is a very general purpose technology, one likely to make many people more productive, including many people with fewer skills. Moreover, we have more policy control over the distribution of work than over the pure AI effect on work. Declare an AI dividend and create some more holidays, for example.
Nor is this argument purely theoretical. Between 1870 and today, hours of work in the United States fell by about 40% — from nearly 3,000 hours per year to about 1,800. Hours fells but unemployment did not increase. Moreover, not only did work hours fall, but childhood, retirement, and life expectancy all increased. In fact in 1870, about 30% of a person’s entire life was spent working — people worked, slept, and died. Today it’s closer to 10%. Thus in the past 100+ years or so the amount of work in a person’s lifetime has fallen by about 2/3rds and the amount of leisure, including retirement has increased. We have already sustained a massive increase in leisure. There’s no reason we cannot do it again.
LDS fact of the day
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has grown 66% this century, fueled in part by a record-breaking number of convert baptisms in 2025.
The church had 10,752,986 members at the end of 1999. The church had 17,887,212 at the end of 2025, according to an annual statistical report released Saturday during the church’s 196th Annual General Conference.
Furthermore the growth is coming in every part of the world (as a qualifier I am not sure what the outflow is). Here is the full article, via Tyler Ransom.
Financial Regulation and AI: A Faustian Bargain?
Important work is just flowing these days, and much of it (of course) concerns AI:
We study whether AI methods applied to large-scale portfolio holdings data can improve financial regulation. We build a state-of-the-art, graph-based deep learning model tailored to security-level data on the holdings of financial intermediaries. The architecture incorporates economic priors and learns latent representations of both assets and investors from the network structure of portfolio positions. Applied to the universe of non-bank financial intermediaries, covering nearly $40 trillion in wealth, the model substantially outperforms existing approaches in out-of-sample forecasts of intermediary trading behavior, including in crisis episodes. The model has more than ten times the explanatory power for the cross-sectional variation in asset returns during stress events compared to traditional approaches, and it outperforms existing systemic risk metrics at the institution level. Its learned representations show that the holdings network encodes rich, economically interpretable information about firesale vulnerability. The architecture is fully inductive, producing informative estimates even when entire asset classes or investors are withheld from training. We embed our empirical approach into a macroprudential optimal policy framework to formalize why these objects matter for policy and welfare. We show that even in an equilibrium environment subject to the Lucas critique, the predictive information from the model improves welfare by sharpening the cross-sectional targeting of policy interventions, and we demonstrate a complementarity between prediction and structural knowledge.
That is a new paper by Christopher Clayton and Antonio Coppola, of Yale and Stanford respectively.
Wednesday assorted links
1. Waymo rollout in NYC is halted.
2. Back “plus” is the better answer (NYT). I am glad this is now settled, Alex T. can attest I have been insisting on this for a while. Note my earlier prediction.
3. Nicholas Decker on Ludwig Straub.
4. Crypto and quantum computing. Likely an important piece, here is GPT Pro on that paper.
5. “The Suno upgrade for song generation seems quite good as well.” So much is new!
6. Hollinger on NBA tanking (NYT).
7. Is there an evolving Iran bargain with China? (speculative, mostly we still do not know what is going on, you should discount most of what you are reading on this topic).
Mythos assorted links
Here is Dean Ball on Mythos. And now more from Dean. Here is John Loeber. While I am seeing some likely overstatement, probably this is a real turning point nonetheless, and we need to think further about what is best to do. No b.s. on data center slowdowns and algorithmic discrimination, rather actual thought on how to regulate something that actually will matter. And be glad we got there first. But how long will it be before an open source version, even if somewhat inferior, is available? Will OpenAI and Google soon be showing similar capabilities? (And how will that shift the equilibrium?) Should we upgrade our estimates of the returns to investing in compute? How will the willingness of attackers to pay for tokens evolve, relative to the willingness of defenders to pay for tokens? Which are our softest targets? As a side effect, will this also lead to higher economic concentration, as perhaps only the larger institutions can invest in quality patches rapidly enough? How many things will be taken offline altogether? It was the government of Singapore that started moving in that direction in 2016 with their Internet Surfing Separation. Which of the pending hacks and leaks will embarrass you the most?
And if nothing else, this is proof we are not all going to be jobless, albeit for reasons that are not entirely positive.
AI Risks
Two new papers/initiatives indicate severe risks from AI, interestingly in opposite directions. The first is that the most advanced frontier models are now capable of finding and exploiting software in ways that could be used to crash or control pretty much all the world’s major systems.
Anthropic: We formed Project Glasswing because of capabilities we’ve observed in a new frontier model trained by Anthropic that we believe could reshape cybersecurity. Claude Mythos2 Preview is a general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals a stark fact: AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.
Mythos Preview has already found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser. Given the rate of AI progress, it will not be long before such capabilities proliferate, potentially beyond actors who are committed to deploying them safely. The fallout—for economies, public safety, and national security—could be severe. Project Glasswing is an urgent attempt to put these capabilities to work for defensive purposes.
That’s from Anthropic. The irony is that the company that has developed a frontier model capable of infiltrating and undermining more or less any computer system in the world is the one that has been forbidden from working with the US government. It’s as if a private firm developed nuclear weapons and the American government refused to work with them because they were too woke. Okey dokey.
The second paper on AI risks is AI Agent Traps from Google DeepMind. They point out that AI agents on the web are vulnerable to all kinds of attacks from things like text in html never read by humans, hidden commands in pdfs, commands encoded in the pixels of images using steganography and so forth.
Putting this together we have the worrying combination that very powerful AI’s are very vulnerable. Will AI solve the problems of AI? Eventually the software will be made secure but weird things happen in arms races and its going to be a bump ride.