Month: November 2023

Ken Opalo is more optimistic about Africa (from my email)

Just a quick note that the story isn’t a straightforward “lost decade.”

Human development indicators (health, education, housing) are up. Lots of infrastructure is being built all over the place. The real challenges behind the growth slowdown are:

1) productivity increases have stalled since about 2014 (and was higher than India’s for a while
2) delayed fertility transition continues to depress the per capita income measure.

More on this here: https://kenopalo.substack.com/p/there-is-an-urgent-need-to-unlock

Best,

Ken

*Lineages of the Feminine*

That is the new book by Emmanuel Todd, subtitled An Outline of the History of Women and mostly on the feminization of society.  It does not cohere, and spends too much time wallowing in pseudo-anthropology, but it has a number of interesting bits.  Here is from the preface:

The feminist revolution is a great thing (I’m an ordinary Westerner on the point) but we are not yet able to see how much the emancipation of women has radically altered the whole of our social life.  Because we always see women as minors, as victims, we do not place them, for better or for worse (i.e., like men) at the centre of our history: they are the protagonists, for example, in the rejection of racism and homophobia, but they are also the unconscious protagonists of our neoliberalism, or deindustrialization and our inability to act collectively….we must accept that the inequalities between human beings in general, in the West, have increased at the same rate as the decrease in inequalities between men and women

The original pointer was from Arnold Kling’s review.

What is your favorite book that no one else you know likes?

I do mean no one.  You have to really like this book, have no other friends or colleagues who like it, and still think the book is very good, not just the product of your own contrarian snottiness.

I have my pick: Nancy Scheper Hughes’s 1992 study Death Without Weeping: The Violence of Everyday Life in Brazil.

Part of the GPT-4 summary runs as follows:

The central premise is the apparent paradox that mothers in this region seem to accept the death of their infants without the expected level of grief or weeping. Scheper-Hughes explores the sociocultural and economic factors that have led to a situation where such high infant mortality is normative and somewhat “accepted” as a part of life. This acceptance is a survival mechanism in a context where the death of children is so common due to factors such as malnutrition, dehydration, and lack of adequate healthcare.

It’s not that I know people who reject this book, rather I don’t currently know anyone who would read a 556-page work on medical anthropology/conflict studies in northern Brazil.

A long time ago, I would have nominated Rene Girard here, perhaps Theatre of Envy.  But he has since grown in popularity.

What are your picks, and why?

*Holy Spider*

A very good Iranian movie, the first half feels like David Fincher but in Farsi.  It is about a serial killer, so you must be able to tolerate some difficult scenes.  The second half takes some brilliant and creative turns, concerning broader Iranian society.  I dare not divulge those for fear of spoiling the suspense for you.  The movie also bears on the current role of Iran in the Middle East conflict and has a definite Straussian side.  Recommended, for those who can.  On Netflix.

*Look Again*

The authors are Tali Sharot and Cass Sunstein, and the subtitle is The Power of Noticing What Was Always There.  Excerpt:

The day is known as Högertrafikomläggningen, which translates to “the right-hand traffic diversion,” or H-day for short.  It was the day Sweden changed from driving on the left side of the road to the right.  The move was initiated to align Sweden with the other Scandinavian countries.  The fear was that drivers would get confused, turning the wrong way or getting too close to other cars when attempting to overtake them.  That would seem to be a perfectly reasonable fear.  Surprisingly, however, the switch did not result in a rise in motor accidents,   On the contrary, the number of accidents and fatalities plunged!  The number of motor insurance claims went down by 40 percent.

A very interesting book, recommended, due out in February.

Bill Conerly at Forbes reviews GOAT

GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? is an intriguing book by the well-known economist Tyler Cowen in which he tries to determine who is the greatest economist of all time. This book will be enjoyed not only by economists but also those interested in understanding the world of people and their interactions. Importantly, the book emphasizes the non-financial implications of economic analysis in areas such as friendship, community and aesthetics…

In a startling advance for book publishing, GOAT comes with a chatbot in which a user can ask the AI to answer questions related to the book. In writing this review, I used the chatbot to refresh my memory about Tyler’s criteria for greatness and for examples of non-financial concerns. The chatbot uses the same technology that enables AI to answer specialized questions for customer service by accessing a company’s owners’ manuals, returns policy and troubleshooting guides.

Here is the full review.

England is underrated, a continuing series

The UK has said it will refrain from regulating the British artificial intelligence sector, even as the EU, US and China push forward with new measures.  The UK’s first minister for AI and intellectual property, Viscount Jonathan Camrose, said at a Financial Times conference on Thursday that there would be no UK law on AI “in the short term” because the government was concerned that heavy-handed regulation could curb industry growth.

Here is more from the FT.  And also from the FT: “UK approves Crispr gene editing therapy in global first.

America’s top one percent has not been seeing a rising income share

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  The opener is this:

Can a single self-published paper really refute decades of work by three famous economists? If the paper is the modestly titled “Income Inequality in the United States: Using Tax Data to Measure Long-Term Trends,” then the answer — with qualifications — is yes.

And this:

Now, in their latest study, they arrive at a conclusion that will be startling to a lot of people: “Increasing government transfers and tax progressivity have resulted in rising real incomes for all income groups and little change in after-tax top income shares.”

More concretely, looking at pre-tax income, the share of the top 1% has gone up only 2.6 percentage points since the early 1960s. For after-tax income, top income shares haven’t changed much at all.

Auten and Splinter have a methodological explanation for why their results differ. The share of true income missing in tax data has increased over time, and they attempt to adjust for that discrepancy, as well as for how income is sheltered in corporations has changed. Auten and Splinter also include cash and in-kind transfers for the lower income groups, to better measure their true incomes.

Recommended.

A Tax Puzzle

Analyze the following four images. For each image, guess what is being taxed. Use only the information in the image.

FYI ChatGPT was not able to solve this question directly, although it was very good at analyzing what was distinctive or odd about each image and thus suggesting some possible answers.

Hat tip: Lionel Page, via Shruti Rajagopalan, includes answers and some variants.

My Conversation with the excellent Jennifer Burns

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode description:

Jennifer Burns is a professor history at Stanford who works at the intersection of intellectual, political, and cultural history. She’s written two biographies Tyler highly recommends: her 2009 book, Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right and her latest, Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative, provides a nuanced look into the influential economist and public intellectual.

Tyler and Jennifer start by discussing how her new portrait of Friedman caused her to reassess him, his lasting impact in statistics, whether he was too dogmatic, his shift from academic to public intellectual, the problem with Two Lucky People, what Friedman’s courtship of Rose Friedman was like, how Milton’s family influenced him, why Friedman opposed Hayek’s courtesy appointment at the University of Chicago, Friedman’s attitudes toward friendship, his relationship to fiction and the arts, and the prospects for his intellectual legacy. Next, they discuss Jennifer’s previous work on Ayn Rand, including whether Rand was a good screenwriter, which is the best of her novels, what to make of the sex scenes in Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead, how Rand and Mises got along, and why there’s so few successful businesswomen depicted in American fiction. They also delve into why fiction seems so much more important for the American left than it is for the right, what’s driving the decline of the American conservative intellectual condition, what she will do next, and more.

Here is one excerpt:

COWEN: What’s the future of Milton Friedman, say, 30, 40 years from now? Where will the reputation be? University of Chicago is no longer Friedmanite, right? We know that. There are fewer outposts of Friedmanite-thinking than there had been. Will he be underrated or somehow reinvented or what?

BURNS: Let me look into my crystal ball. I don’t think the name will have faded. I think there are still names that people read. People still read Keynes and Mill and figures like that to see what did they say in their day that was so influential. I think that Friedman has got into the water and into the air a bit. I do some work on tracing out his influence.

Within economics, no one’s going to say, “Oh, I’m a Friedmanite,” or fewer people are, but this is someone whose major work was done half a century or more ago, so I don’t think that’s surprising. It would be surprising if economics had been at a standstill as Friedman still called the tune. When you think about the way we accord importance to the modern Federal Reserve, of course, there were things that happened in the world, but Friedman’s ideas did so much to shape that understanding.

He’s still in policymakers’ minds. He’s still in the monetary policy establishment’s minds, even if they’re not fully following him. I think we’re in the middle of a big reckoning now. You saw all the debate about M2 and the pandemic and monetary spending. I don’t know where it’s all going to settle out. It’s a more complicated world than the one that Friedman looked at. I tend to think he is an essential thinker, that the basics of what he talked about are going to be known 50 years from now, for sure.

COWEN: Did Milton Friedman have friends?

Definitely recommended, and Jennifer’s new book Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative is one of my favorite books of the year.  It will likely stand as the definitive biography of Friedman.