*Create Your Own Economy*, table of contents

1. The Future of Thinking Differently

2. Hidden Creativity

3. Why Modern Culture is Like Marriage, in all its Glory

4. IM, Cell Phones, and Facebook [this chapter discusses Twitter as well]

5. The Buddha as Savior and the Professor as Shaman

6. The New Economy of Stories

7. Heroes

8. Beauty isn't What You Think

9. Autistic Politics

10. The Future of the Universe

This is definitely a book you should buy.  And unlike Discover Your Inner Economist, no more than a page or two of its content has been presented on MarginalRevolution.

ATM machines in everything?

I take this as a signal to go short the metal:

Germans, long attracted to the safety of solid gold, will soon be able to sate their appetite for the yellow metal as easily as buying a chocolate bar after plans were announced yesterday to install gold vending machines in airports and railway stations across the country.

…He hopes to install "Gold to go" machines in 500 locations in German-speaking countries this year.

Here is one imperfect link to an FT article.  This link might work too.  There are, by the way, two other catches:

Gold prices from the machines – about 30 per cent higher than market prices for the cheapest product – will be updated every few minutes.

A camera is installed to monitor possible attempts to launder money by buying gold, Mr Geissler said.

I thank Alex L. for the pointer.  Here is a related article.  It discusses the use of test explosives to make sure that the machines cannot be carted off or ripped open.

Addendum: One more thing: I know this was reported in both the FT and the NYT, but this skeptical blogger still doesn't think it will ever happen or come close to happening.  I believe it is a publicity stunt (or fraud) and that some top reporters were simply tricked.  We'll see.

Second addendum: Here is a video.

Should the systemic risk regulator be the Fed?

Kevin Drum says no:

If you're going to create some kind of system risk regulator at all –
about which I'm sort of agnostic in the first place – you want to give
the authority to an agency that's institutionally dedicated to reducing
risk and considers it a primary task.  That ain't the Fed.  It's just
going to get buried in the bureaucracy and forgotten there.

Assuming we are going to do it, I think it has to be the Fed, whether we like it or not.  It's the Fed who is the fireman with the awesome power to print money, move markets, lend to the banking system on a large scale, and now even conduct fiscal policy, all without Congressional approval.  Our textbooks speak of the Fed as a lender of last resort but very often it is the lender of first resort too.

If you stuck another agency into that mix, it would end up waiting for the Fed's go-ahead, once an actual crisis arrived.

OK, so the systemic regulator is the Fed.  But then you can't make the systemic regulator too accountable to Congress without eliminating the quasi-independence of the central bank.  There's not any comfortable point on the power-accountability continuum, mostly because we don't trust Congress to run monetary policy.

The stinger on the tail is this: we want the Fed to deliver low inflation.  That means we let it be influenced by financial creditor interest groups but not so much by populist interest groups (Adam Posen had a good piece on this but I cannot recall the reference).  Right now a lot of people are asking for more populist regulation without realizing that also requires more populist monetary policy.

It's very hard to get financial regulation right.  It's the populist stuff that Obama wants to strip into a separate agency (for consumer protection) but it is difficult for such an agency to cover the major elements of systemic risk.

Interview with Paul Samuelson

Find it here, run by Conor Clarke.  Excerpt:

Milton Friedman. Friedman had a solid MV = PQ
doctrine from which he deviated very little all his life. By the way,
he's about as smart a guy as you'll meet. He's as persuasive as you
hope not to meet. And to be candid, I should tell you that I stayed on
good terms with Milton for more than 60 years. But I didn't do it by
telling him exactly everything I thought about him. He was a
libertarian to the point of nuttiness. People thought he was joking,
but he was against licensing surgeons and so forth. And when I went
quarterly to the Federal Reserve meetings, and he was there, we agreed
only twice in the course of the business cycle.

My Bloggingheads with Robert Wright on *The Evolution of God*

It is on theology and religion and you will find it here.  They list some of the specific topics as follows:


Bob’s new book, “The Evolution of God” (09:34)


On being a bad secular Buddhist (03:28)


The God Bob believes in (03:17)


Why agnostic Tyler loves the Hebrew Bible (03:26)


How Bob and Tyler came to their personal theologies (06:49)


Quantum physics and king-sized video games as paths to God (07:42)

For me it was a very interesting exchange, but given the topic I cannot predict that everyone will feel the same way.  Other points we touched upon were the beautiful elements in Islam and its notion of religious ecstasy, the appeal of Sufism, why Unitarianism is not more popular, the pagan polytheistic versions of Catholicism, penalty and punishment in Haitian voodoo, the preconditions of tolerance, my views on meta-ethics, what does the concept of God really mean anyway, why dogmatic atheism is so unfortunate, and what is the real metaphysical problem that everyone needs to face up to.  Bob of course just wrote a book on religion but from my end I view this as a personal dialog rather than me communicating verified scholarly information in an educational manner.

You can buy Bob's book, The Evolution of God, here.

The new financial regulatory reform

Kevin Drum is unhappy.  Paul Krugman is critical.  My mental model of Simon Johnson is even more critical.  Need I cite Yves Smith?  Felix Salmon is confused.

Is there anything to say, other than rehashing old debates about regulation and blame?

As the NYT notes:

A key element in the plan will be creating an independent Consumer
Financial Protection Agency to write and enforce rules on fair lending
and other matters.

Maybe that's where one chance to get tough lies.  We are creating an agency which will have plenty of incentive to limit risk by installing plain vanilla products, and yet it will have little stake in preserving economic growth. 

It is possible that the real action is in the future flow of financial innovation rather than how we treat the stock of extant financial innovation (recall Arnold Kling's chess game analogy).  I suspect the Obama plan is tougher on the former than on the latter.

I would say we still don't know what is actually going to be done.

Addendum: Here are more details, I believe they support the last sentence of this post.  Matt Yglesias offers good comments.

How to do stimulus, Thailand style

Of the total loans, Bt500 billion will be earmarked for mega projects under the jurisdiction of the Bhum Jai Thai Party. The remaining Bt300 billion will be shared by the Democrat and the Chart Thai Pattana parties.

How's that for a way to break through parliamentary logjams?  Just give the money to the parties themselves, they'll find ways of spending it.  The full story is here and for the pointer I thank Air Genius Gary Leff.

Wow, that was quick

Democrats on three House panels continue to meet privately to seek consensus on a single plan. Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee said they were trying to decide whether to finance coverage of the uninsured with one broad-based tax, like the value-added tax, or a combination of smaller taxes.

The article is here.  I wasn't expecting that for years to come.  From my distant perch out here in Fairfax (and Arlington), I believe this means health care reform is falling apart.  It means the unions won't let them tax health insurance benefits and the CBO won't let them punt on the issue of finance.

Some notes on energy policy

Bob Murphy asks whether I have changed my mind.  I say no, although I have gone from discussing it in the abstract to commenting on the particular policy developments of the day.  Let me restate a few of my views:

1. We do have an acceptable means forward and it is called oil at $145 a barrel, combined with restrictions on dirty coal as a substitute and a more favorable regulatory treatment of nuclear power and other energy alternatives.  We had one plank of that platform as recently as last year, and while it was painful it was not the end of the world. 

2. It is worth debating how to get to higher energy prices but the bigger question is how much we are willing to go there at all.  "Cheaper energy" is the one issue that had traction for the Republicans last fall at the polls.

3. Regulatory changes are an essential part of the way forward and that is often underemphasized by environmentalists, who are allergic to the word "deregulation."  Yet if we had to build today's energy infrastructure under the 2009 regulatory regime, it would not be possible.  NIMBY is a huge obstacle to future progress in this area.

4. I view Waxman-Markey as like a failed dieter pledging to go out and buy lots of diet books.  It's easy enough to defend the diet books as a "first step," or a "framework."  I would feel better if the book purchases were accompanied by a credible promise — or even a "cheap talk" lie — to lose weight.  How many politicians in favor of the bill have stepped forward and promised to deliver higher energy prices?

I predict and fear that Waxman-Markey, if it passes, will deliver a more politicized energy sector without real progress on #1.  I know all about the apparently impressive quotas for the out years.  I also know how easy it will be for Congress to hand out more permits, perhaps in return for phony yet rent-seeking laden carbon offsets.  That's what the political equilibrium looks like.

5. Here is a very good blog post on carbon offsets.

6. It is easy enough for someone to complain: "But he doesn't even favor buying the diet books!" but that is missing the point.  The problem with Waxman-Markey is not the mechanics per se but rather how few politicians will emphasize or even admit that it will, in its working versions, significantly raise energy prices.

7. You can argue: "If we buy the diet books today, we will be ready to diet [raise energy prices] in a few years' time."  I don't dismiss this argument, but I doubt it and I don't think that enough W-M proponents admit that their case largely rests upon it.

8. Energy prices have been rising with economic recovery.  I am waiting for the first person to have the stones to argue that rapid and permanent economic growth is the only way (by raising the price of oil at a disproportionate pace) to limit greenhouse gases.  You won't find those stones in my pocket (I don't think the argument succeeds), but sooner or later they will turn up.  There is a more modest version of the argument which simply notes that in equilibrium politicians are likely trying to lower rather than to raise the price of fossil fuel-based energy.

9. I'm not going to restate my views on international cooperation but in general the quality of discussion on this issue is low, from both sides.  That doesn't augur well.  It is easy to see what won't work.  It is much harder to see what might work.  Very few of us actually expected Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall.

Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein have a request

They ask that I direct more messages to Republican Congressmen (here and here); Kevin Drum discusses related issues.  They have a point and I'll state it more clearly: Republicans should support and indeed applaud Obama's attempt to cut some Medicare costs.  Republican Congressmen also should stand ready to make a "grand bargain" on health care, again provided that it puts Medicare on a sustainable cost basis.

If I don't write more "for Republican politicians," it is for two reasons.  First, I view their incentive as to make Obama fail, not to find an acceptable compromise that will move the nation forward.  Second, I view the future of Medicare as the President vs. Congress, not one party vs. another.  Democratic Congressmen will, ultimately, require persuasion as much as the Republicans or maybe more so.  I still think the real danger is not recalcitrant Republicans but rather that we will get a health care plan without plausible mechanisms for fiscal responsibility.  

Are generational traits cyclical?

I haven't looked at any of the underlying research but I found the following claims to be very interesting:

In the end, however, much of what my research uncovered was inconsistent with Strauss and Howe’s theories. At least in terms of psychological differences, generations do not occur in cycles; instead, the changes are primarily linear, with each generation taking the previous generations’ traits to the next level. There is no sudden shift in personality for someone born before or after 1982 (Strauss and Howe’s cutoff for what they call the “Millennial” generation). Thus generational labels such as Boomers, Xers, and GenY are of limited use. What’s more important is the number of birth years separating two people – e.g, 20 years or 40 years. Although I occasionally use generational labels (such as Generation Me or GenMe to describe today’s young people), I primarily rely on labels such as “older” and “younger” generations; those in the middle in terms of age (today, the GenXers in their 30s and 40s) will typically fall in the middle in terms of traits and attitudes.

One particular implication is that individualism and indeed narcissism have been increasing steadily with each generation.  I find that the most plausible models of intergenerational learning support the author's "linear accretion" view rather than cycles of rebellion and counterreaction.  There is a niche effect for siblings, but I think less of such an effect for generations per se.

Hat tip goes to BPS Research Digest.

How to follow current events

On Iran, Andrew Sullivan > Σ MSM. 

Megan McArdle offers some reasons why.  I would add that MSM is unwilling to rely much on information aggregators such as Twitter and they are reluctant to report things in the uncertain, hanging narrative kind of way that blogs (sometimes) excel at.  MSM needs the definitive-sounding soundbites for people who are tuned in for only a few minutes and don't come back or don't come back with any memory of what was said before.

We're seeing a revolution in coverage of current events right before our very eyes.