Category: Games

My excellent Conversation with Nate Silver

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

In his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling’s origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he’s been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI’s impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried’s place in “the River,” the trait effective altruists need to develop, the stupidest risks Tyler and Nate would take, prediction markets, how many monumental political decisions have been done under the influence of drugs, and more.

Here is one excerpt:

COWEN: Why shouldn’t people gamble only in the positive sum game? Take the US stock market — that certainly seems to be one of them — and manufacture all the suspense you want. Learn about the companies, the CEO. Get your thrill that way and don’t do any other gambling. Why isn’t that just better for everyone?

SILVER: Look, I’m not necessarily a fan of gambling for gambling’s sake. Twice a year, I’ll be in casinos and in Las Vegas a lot. Twice a year, I’ll have a friend who is like, “Let’s just go play blackjack for an hour and have a couple of free drinks,” and things like that. But I like to make bets where I think, at least in principle, I have an edge, or at least can fool myself into thinking I have an edge.

Sometimes, with the sports stuff, you probably know deep down you’re roughly break-even or something like that. You’re doing some smart things, like looking at five different sites and finding a line that’s best, which wipes out some but not all of the house edge. But no, I’m not a huge fan of slot machines, certainly. I think they are very gnarly and addictive in various ways.

COWEN: They limit your sports betting, don’t they?

SILVER: Yes, I’ve been limited by six or seven of the nine New York retail sites.

COWEN: What’s the potential edge they think you might have?

SILVER: It’s just that. If you’re betting $2,000 on the Wizards-Hornets game the moment the line comes out on DraftKings, you’re clearly not a recreational bettor. Just the hallmarks of trying to be a winning player, meaning betting lines early because the line’s early and you don’t have price discovery yet. The early lines are often very beatable. Betting on obscure stuff like “Will this player get X number of rebounds?” or things like that. If you have a knack for — if DraftKings has a line at -3.5 and it’s -4 elsewhere, then it can be called steam chasing, where you bet before a line moves in other places. If you have injury information . . .

It’s a very weird game. One thing I hope people are more aware of is that a lot of the sites — and some are better than others — but they really don’t want winning players. Their advertising has actually changed. It used to be, they would say for Daily Fantasy Sports, which was the predecessor, “Hey, you’re a smart guy” — the ads are very cynical — “You’re a smart guy in a cubicle. Why don’t you go do all your spreadsheet stuff and actually draft this team and make a lot of money, and literally, you’ll be sleeping with supermodels in two months. You win the million-dollar prize from DraftKings.”

And:

COWEN: If we could enforce just an outright ban, what’s the cost-benefit analysis on banning all sports gambling?

SILVER: I’m more of a libertarian than a strict utilitarian, I think.

COWEN: Sure, but what’s the utilitarian price of being a libertarian?

Recommended, interesting and engaging throughout.  And yes, we talk about Luka too.  Here is my first 2016 CWT with Nate, full of predictions I might add, and here is Nate’s very good new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.

Video games and looks

We investigate the relationship between physical attractiveness and the time people devote to video/computer gaming. Average American teenagers spend 2.6% of their waking hours gaming, while for adults this figure is 2.7%. Using the American Add Health Study, we show that adults who are better-looking have more close friends. Arguably, gaming is costlier for them, and they thus engage in less of it. Physically attractive teens are less likely to engage in gaming at all, whereas unattractive teens who do game spend more time each week on it than other gamers. Attractive adults are also less likely than others to spend any time gaming; and if they do, they spend less time on it than less attractive adults. Using the longitudinal nature of the Add Health Study, we find supportive evidence that these relationships are causal for adults: good looks decrease gaming time, not vice-versa.

That is from a new NBER working paper by  Andy Chung, Daniel S. Hamermesh, Carl Singleton, Zhengxin Wang & Junsen Zhang.

How to feed the Olympics, a problem in procurement

It’s a daunting task to feed 15,000 people no matter what, but if food is fuel, the chefs feeding the athletes at Olympic Village are somewhat responsible for how these athletes perform. Events management and catering group Sodexo Live takes that responsibility seriously. What results is an incredible feat of logistics, combining sustainable sourcing, diversity of options, and ensuring all athlete’s nutritional needs are met by some combination of the 500 dishes that will be served.

But it’s not just baseline nutritional needs that need to be met — athletes are coming from all over the world, with their own culinary traditions. The Olympics are supposed to be a place of cultural exchange, and this extends to the food. Sodexo Live has brought on partner chefs Amandine Chaignot, Akrame Benallal, and Alexandra Mazzia to serve dishes like quinoa muesli, chickpea pommade, and gnocchi in chicken sauce to showcase modern French cuisine. Other chefs on the team are charged with creating everything athletes will need to eat, both before and after the competition.

And:

One of the funny parts that we’ve learned is that we think they’re all athletes and in their physical prime, so distance doesn’t matter. But actually it does, because our dining hall is extremely large, it’s over 220 meters long and 24 meters wide. Walking from one side to the other takes five minutes. And these competitors, they’re not going to go that far, they’re going to really ensure the minimum steps so they don’t spend too much energy. Nobody expected that.

And:

Bananas are an athlete’s favorite thing. We anticipate getting two or three million bananas. At peak time there will be 15,000 people living in one place. So that means per day, at peak time, we’re going to go up to 40,000 meals. At the end of the entire journey, it’s over 1.2 million meals. I was working on quantifying the volume of coffee, how to produce it. And then someone said, “Can we get the coffee grinds back to us to use as a fertilizer?” So what’s the volume of grinds we’ll produce? I’’s 20 tons of coffee, so that means it’ll be 40 tons of coffee residue. But all of this is going to be used to grow mushrooms.

Finally:

Americans have been extremely vocal about what they want. They were more picky and sensitive about having a lot of gluten-free items, and a more vegetable-based diet.

The piece and interview is by Jaya Saxena, the reproduced answers are from Estelle Lamont.  Here is the entire piece, via the ever-excellent The Browser.

What should I ask Nate Silver?

Yes, I will be doing another Conversation with Nate, based in part on his new and forthcoming book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything (I have just started it, but so far it is very good, dealing with issues of poker and also risk-taking more generally).

Here is my previous Conversation with Nate Silver.  And please note I am not looking to ask him about the election.  So what should I ask?

New Magnus Carlsen Fantasy Chess start-up

Now the project he created, Fantasy Chess, is leveling up from experiment to venture-backed startup. Led by CEO Mats André Kristiansen, the former cofounder of an online grocery startup, Oslo-based Fantasy Chess has raised $3 million in initial pre-seed funding led by local VC firm SNÖ Ventures and Coatue, joined by billionaire investors Yuri Milner’s Breakthrough Initiatives and Peter Thiel’s fund Thiel Capital.

>After testing a fantasy game with Norway Chess at its tournament last May, Fantasy Chess now hopes to open up the board beyond that genre, in which fans typically select players to fill out a team and receive points based on their performance in real-life matches. (In that instance, participants selected pieces of specific competitors to follow, winning points if they captured other pieces, and losing points if they were removed.)

Here is the full story.

Nationalism in Online Games During War

We investigate how international conflicts impact the behavior of hostile nationals in online games. Utilizing data from the largest online chess platform, where players can see their opponents’ country flags, we observed behavioral responses based on the opponents’ nationality. Specifically, there is a notable decrease in the share of games played against hostile nationals, indicating a reluctance to engage. Additionally, players show different strategic adjustments: they opt for safer opening moves and exhibit higher persistence in games, evidenced by longer game durations and fewer resignations. This study provides unique insights into the impact of geopolitical conflicts on strategic interactions in an online setting, offering contributions to further understanding human behavior during international conflicts.

That is from a new paper by Eren Bilen, Nino Doghonadze, Robizon Khubulashvili, and David Smerdon.  Imagine if there is some addition Sino-Indian conflict right before the Ding vs. Gukesh WCC match…

For the pointer I thank various MR readers.

The game theory of the final round of the Candidates

The amazing Gukesh (17 years old!)  is half a point ahead with one round remaining today.  Three players — Nakamura, Caruana, and Nepo — trail him by half a point.  Naka is playing Gukesh, and of course Naka will try to win.  But what about Caruana vs. Nepo?  Yes, each must try to win (no real reward for second place), but which openings should they aim for?  You might think they both will steer the game in the direction of freewheeling, risky openings.  Game theory, however, points one’s attention in a different direction.  What if one of the two players opts for something truly drawish, say like the Petroff or (these days) the Berlin, or the Slav exchange variation?  Then the other player really needs to try to win, and to take some crazy chances in what is otherwise a quite even position.  Why not precommit to “drawish,” knowing the other player will have to go to extreme lengths to rebel against that?

Of course game theory probably is wrong in this case, but is this such a crazy notion?  I’ll guess we’ll find out at about 2:45 EST today.

Scrabble markets in everything, okie-dokie edition

For the first time in 75 years, Mattel is making a major change to the iconic board game Scrabble — and touting a “No More Scoring” gameplay option.

The new launch is a double-sided version of the famous board game — one side with the original game for those who want to stick to the long-time traditional version, and one side with a “less competitive” version to appeal to Gen Z gamers.

The flip side of the classic game, called Scrabble Together, will include helper cards, use a simpler scoring system, be quicker to play and allow people to play in teams.

“The makers of Scrabble found that younger people, Gen Z people, don’t quite like the competitive nature of Scrabble,” Gyles Brandreth, who co-hosts the language podcast Something Rhymes With Purple, told BBC Radio 4 Today. “They want a game where you can simply enjoy language, words, being together and having fun creating words.”

And:

So what’s new exactly? In addition to a dual-sided board, there are helper cards, which provide assistance, prompts and clues and can be selected to match the player’s challenge level of their choice.

In the new version, scoring is a thing of the past — now all one has to do is finish a goal and collect the goal card.

Goal cards include challenges such as: “Play a horizontal word,” “play a three-letter word” or “play a word that touches the edge of the board.”

Here is the full story.  I have read that 33 out of the world’s top 100 Scrabble players are Nigerian — I wonder what they think of this?

The Candidates tournament

 

I agree Caruana is the clear favorite, but at these odds he seems slightly overvalued and Nepo undervalued?  Keep in mind the margins of quality here are slight, and furthermore Nepo won it the last two times.  The tournament could in fact come down to whoever can beat Nijat twice.  While that correlates with overall quality of play, willingness to take risks may be the decisive factor.  The tournament is a short one, and there are plenty of past instances (e.g., Wesley So) of players going on an incredible roll for dozens of games, before setting back down into normal performance levels.  So I say the field is open.  Keep in mind this is truly a “winner-take-all” tournament, and chess ratings instead reflect mean performance, and so you need to fine tune your intuitions a bit here.

Who do you think will win?

Magnus, by the way, seems not entirely impressed with the field, Caruana aside.

“Centaur chess” is now run by computers

Remember when man and machine played together to beat the solo computers?  It was not usually about adding the man’s chess judgment to that of the machine, rather the man would decide which computer program to use in a given position, when the programs offered conflicting advice. that was called Centaur Chess, or sometimes “Freestyle chess,” before that term was applied to Fischer Random chess.  For years now, the engines have been so strong that strategy no longer made sense.

But with engine strength came chess engine diversity, as for instance Stockfish and Alpha Zero operate on quite different principles.  So now “which program to use” is once again a live issue.  But the entity making those choices is now a program, not a human being:

A traditional AI chess program, trained to win, may not make sense of a Penrose puzzle, but Zahavy suspected that a program made up of many diverse systems, working together as a group, could make headway. So he and his colleagues developed a way to weave together multiple (up to 10) decisionmaking AI systems, each optimized and trained for different strategies, starting with AlphaZero, DeepMind’s powerful chess program. The new system, they reported in August, played better than AlphaZero alone, and it showed more skill—and more creativity—in dealing with Penrose’s puzzles. These abilities came, in a sense, from self-collaboration: If one approach hit a wall, the program simply turned to another.

Here is the full Steven Ornes piece from Wired.

Why I don’t like Fischer Random 960

As you may know, a major tournament is going on right now, based on a variant of Fischer Random rules, sometimes misleadingly called “Freestyle.”  Subject to some constraints, the pieces are placed into the starting position randomly, so in Fischer Random chess opening preparation is useless.  You have to start thinking from move one.  This is a big advantage in a game where often the entire contest is absorbed into 20-30 moves of advance opening preparation, with little or no real sporting element appearing over the board.

Yet I don’t like Fischer Random, for a few hard to fix reasons:

1. Most of the time, at least prior to the endgame, I don’t understand what is going on.  Even with computer assistance.  I could put in five to ten minutes to study the position, and get a sense of the constraints, but as a spectator I don’t want to do that.  As a relatively high opportunity cost person, I am not going to do that.

1b. Classical chess sometimes generates positions where one does not really understand what is going on.  Then it is thrilling, precisely because it is occasional.  A perpetual “fog of war,” as we receive in Fischer Random, just isn’t that thrilling.  In the opening, for instance, I don’t even know if one player is attempting “a risky strategy.”  I am not sure the player knows either.  And I don’t feel that watching more Fischer Random would change that, as there are hundreds of different possible opening positions, mostly with different properties.

2. The younger players have a notable advantage, because they are better at calculating concrete variations and rely less on intuition.  (We already see this in the current results.)  Experience is simply worth much less in this very novel format.  For any one tournament, that is an interesting intrigue.  But over time it is a bore, as if only rookies and sophomores could win NBA titles.  In fact what spectators enjoy watching is Steph Curry going up against Lebron James, or the analogs in chess.  We want to see Magnus meet Fabiano again, not watch two eighteen-year-olds slug it out.  Sorry, Pragga!  You’ll have your day in the sun.

3. Fischer Random cuts off chess from the rest of its history.   That is otherwise a big advantage of chess over many other games and contests.  I like seeing that a player’s move is connected to say an idea from Tal in the early 1960s, or whatever.  I like “Oh, the Giuoco Piano is making a comeback at top levels,” or “today’s players are more willing to sacrifice the exchange than in the 1970s,” and so on.

4. I get frustrated seeing all those Kings sitting on F1, not able to castle in the traditional sense.  There are rules for castling in Fischer Random, but it feels more like pressing the “hyperspace” button in the old Space Invaders video game than anything else.  Who wants to see a Knight on C1 for twenty-five moves?  Not I.

5. I agree that current opening prep is insanely out of control.  I am fine with the remedy of 25-minutes per player Rapid games, or anything in that range, with increment of course.  Those contests are consistently exciting and they are not forced draws (you can play something weird against the Petroff, or to begin with) nor are they dominated by prep.

6. If you don’t want to watch Rapid, I would rather randomize the first few opening moves than the placement of the pieces.  If you don’t control the first three (seven? ten?) first moves, once again opening prep becomes much tougher.  So what if some games start with 1. b4 b6?  The resulting position is still playable for both sides and furthermore it still makes intuitive sense to chess spectators.  Of course the computers would restrict this randomization to sequences that still are playable for both sides.  The very exact nature of current chess opening prep in fact implies you need only a very small change in the rules to disrupt it, not the kind of huge change represented by Fischer Random.

That all said, I am all for experimentation, it’s just that some of them should be strangled in the crib.

Grandmaster-Level Chess Without Search

Scaling seems to be working here:

The recent breakthrough successes in machine learning are mainly attributed to scale: namely large-scale attention-based architectures and datasets of unprecedented scale. This paper investigates the impact of training at scale for chess. Unlike traditional chess engines that rely on complex heuristics, explicit search, or a combination of both, we train a 270M parameter transformer model with supervised learning on a dataset of 10 million chess games. We annotate each board in the dataset with action-values provided by the powerful Stockfish 16 engine, leading to roughly 15 billion data points. Our largest model reaches a Lichess blitz Elo of 2895 against humans, and successfully solves a series of challenging chess puzzles, without any domain-specific tweaks or explicit search algorithms. We also show that our model outperforms AlphaZero’s policy and value networks (without MCTS) and GPT-3.5-turbo-instruct. A systematic investigation of model and dataset size shows that strong chess performance only arises at sufficient scale. To validate our results, we perform an extensive series of ablations of design choices and hyperparameters.

Here is the full paper by Anian Ruoss, et.al. I guess AI is likely to get better at other things too  — I’ve become numb to the miracles, frankly.

Jimmy Carter is underrated, Thomas Schelling edition

“In the US protocol you have to rehearse the entire process every four months….The French, they never rehearse. And their logic is that if you start rehearsing with the president, people are going to start to know how he thinks and they’re going to be able to influence him.”

But, “When do you think Biden rehearses?” Cerf asks. This is another game he plays with students. “The answer is zero times — he never does it. He always says, ‘I’m going to send someone else instead. Not a good time for me…’ What about Trump? How often do you think Trump did it? And the answer is zero. We said, ‘OK, so let’s not [be] partisan. How often Obama?’ ” He didn’t either, according to Cerf. Presidents, Republican and Democrat, are always far too busy. “The last person to have done it is Carter in the Seventies,”

…The keyholes for this are set 18ft apart on either side of the room, he says. “They have to turn the keys at the same time…The whole arrangement requires two people, so that one serviceman having a bad day cannot decide to blow up the world. “The one thing that they all do at some point is they spend time figuring out how they would do it alone if they needed to,” Cerf says. “They’re not supposed to… [But] they said, ‘Every person in this shift at some point figured out that if they connect the broom to the teapot and hold it like this, they can actually turn the two keys together.’ So they all said, at some point, that they play this mental game of, ‘OK, I can actually start a nuclear war.’ ”

Here is the full Times of London article, gated but very interesting throughout.  Via Jason Dunne.

The death of deterrence?

https://twitter.com/RLHeinrichs/status/1715171574167261313

Not to mention Hamas attacking in the first place (you also can debate at whom the Houthis were aiming, probably not the U.S. per se).  And the 32 dead and 11 Americans unaccounted for.

Forget about moralizing and sides-taking for a moment, and just try to think this through as a game.  Either a) attacks of this nature recur and escalate, or b) the U.S. and/or Israel act to reestablish deterrence?  If b), what kind of act would suffice to reestablish some kind of effective deterrence?  Again, to think clearly please try to steer your attention away from the moral question of what you think the U.S. and/or Israel should do.

I date the decline (but not death) of deterrence to when Iraq fired 42 Scud missiles into Israel in 1991 and the Israelis did not retaliate.  That decision was widely praised at the time, and perhaps correctly.  Still, since then people have been solving for the equilibrium…and now that new equilibrium seems to be upon us.  What would Thomas Schelling say?  This is all worth a very serious ponder.