Category: Political Science

Conspiracy theory bleg

by  Tyler Cowen in

People in other countries, including the elites, often believe quite bizarre conspiracy theories about the United States and its government, even when those theories contradict each other.  Do you know of good social science research trying to explain the (general) content of what they believe, why they believe it, and how they ever — if indeed they ever — come to a more reasoned understanding?

I thank you all in advance for your suggestions.

Not a joke

by  Tyler Cowen in

…as far as I can tell.  From a quite reputable newspaper, here goes:

For 150 years, no country has expressed interest in adopting the Canadian dollar — the poor cousin to the coveted greenback.

But now tiny Iceland, still reeling from the aftershocks of the devastating collapse of its banks in 2008, is looking longingly to the loonie as the salvation from wild economic gyrations and suffocating capital controls.

And for the first time, the Canadian government says it’s open to discussing the idea.

In brief remarks to be delivered Saturday in Reykjavik, Canadian ambassador Alan Bones will tell Icelanders that if they truly want the Canadian dollar, Canada is ready to talk.

But he will warn Icelanders that unilaterally adopting the loonie comes with significant risk, including complete loss of control over their monetary policy because the Bank of Canada makes decisions only for Canadians and the Canadian economy.

Kudos to all of you who had been predicting that.

For the pointer I thank M Kaan, maybe someone is playing an elaborate joke on Bob Mundell here.

James Q. Wilson has passed away at 80

by  Tyler Cowen in

He was one of America’s leading social scientists, here is one appreciation.  Here is his Wikipedia page.  Here is a 1995 interview with Reason magazine.  Here is Wilson on scholar.google.com.  Here is his address on the moral sense (pdf).  Here is one of his famous essays on police behavior.  Here are some remarks in praise of Wilson.  Here are many more links.

I think of him as one of the few people who had a truly famous and memorable middle initial.

Arab dictators’ wives

by  Tyler Cowen in

Via Mark Koyama, I found this Guardian article fascinating, here is one excerpt, concerning Syria:

The pinnacle of Asma’s international media charm offensive was a gushing piece in last March’s American Vogue, just before the Syrian uprising began and was met with a crackdown. The article has now mysteriously disappeared from the magazine’s website. Described as a “rose in the desert”, “the freshest and most magnetic of first ladies”, Asma, dressed in jeans, heels and a T-shirt with “Happiness” emblazoned on the back, describes how her home, a triplex apartment, is run “on wildly democratic principles” – seemingly far from the brutal one-party state oppression going on outside.

Looking at her three children, she says: “We all vote on what we want, and where.” Pointing to the dining room chandelier, which is constructed from cut-out comic books, she says: “They outvoted us three to two on that.” Against a backdrop of designer bags, private jets and SUVs, Asma tells Vogue her “central mission” is “to change the mind-set of 6 million Syrians under 18”, encourage them to engage in what she calls “active citizenship.”

The value of diversification, Haitian style

by  Tyler Cowen in

The confirmation that senior Haitian officials hold foreign nationality lends growing credence to a leading senator’s charge that Haitian President Michel Martelly is a U.S. citizen and hence illegally in power.

Two weeks ago, Sen. Moïse Jean Charles submitted what he called “irrefutable” evidence to a special Senate Select Committee that Martelly and 38 other high government officials hold dual, and sometimes triple, nationalities.

On Jan. 24, Sen. Joseph Lambert, the Commission’s president, announced in a press conference that the Commission has confirmed dual nationality for two of the 10 cases it has investigated to date. However, Lambert has so far refused to release the names of dual citizenship officials, saying his commission would proceed “impartially” and “without emotion.” He said arrangements have been made to continue the nationality investigations overseas.

The Senate inquiry threatens to create a political crisis which may force President Martelly, his Prime Minister Garry Conille, and other ministers to step down. If the charges against him prove true, it means that candidate Martelly lied to election officials about holding dual citizenship, which current Haitian law explicitly forbids for a high elected official.

Here is more.  There is the small matter of the Haitian constitution:

Commission member Sen. Steven Irvenson Benoît said that Haiti’s 1987 Constitution prohibits any foreign national not only from becoming president or prime minister, but also from acting as a minister or secretary of state. The Constitution’s Article 56 stipulates: “An alien may be expelled from the territory of the Republic if he becomes involved in the political life of the country, or in cases determined by law.“

Michel Martelly (“Sweet Mickey”) spent so much time in the United States, often giving concerts, that for years I simply assumed he held dual citizenship.  Until recently, I had not known about this provision of the Haitian constitution.  What is the old Haitian saying?:

“The constitution is paper, the bayonet is steel.”

Or something like that.

China fact of the day

by  Tyler Cowen in

The richest 70 members of China’s legislature added more to their wealth last year than the combined net worth of all 535 members of the U.S. Congress, the president and his Cabinet, and the nine Supreme Court justices.The net worth of the 70 richest delegates in China’s National People’s Congress, which opens its annual session on March 5, rose to 565.8 billion yuan ($89.8 billion) in 2011, a gain of $11.5 billion from 2010, according to figures from the Hurun Report, which tracks the country’s wealthy. That compares to the $7.5 billion net worth of all 660 top officials in the three branches of the U.S. government.

The wealth gap between legislatures holds with statistically comparable samples. The richest 2 percent of the NPC — 60 people — had an average wealth of $1.44 billion per person. The richest 2 percent of Congress — 11 members — had an average wealth of $323 million.

The wealthiest member of the U.S. Congress is Representative Darrell Issa, the California Republican who had a maximum wealth of $700.9 million in 2010, according to the center. If he were in China’s NPC, he would be ranked 40th. Per capita income in China is about one-sixth the U.S. level when adjusted for differences in purchasing power.

That is via Shanghaiist, via @AlbertoNardelli via @AnnieLowrey.

The economics of TV pundit panels

by  Tyler Cowen in

@ModeledBehavior tweets:

Who’ll write “the economics of CNNs extremely, extremely ****ing banal pundit panel”. Surely, there must be a reason for it?

Except he spelt out the entire word.

The goal is to keep people on the same channel, by whatever means possible.  The true end of the debate event means the TV will be turned off or the channel switched.  It’s not like the old days when on Saturday night the people who wanted to see “Mary Tyler Moore Show” then wanted to watch Bob Newhart afterwards.  There is no real sequel to these “debates,” or at least no appropriate sequel which can be enacted with the aid of a television.

So they will do everything possible to stretch out the event.  Furthermore, the viewers actually want to talk to each other about the debates, so the continuation should be something which does not command too much viewer attention.  No Evil Knievel.  The panel is a signal of “now is the focal time to make fun of these guys with the other people on your sofa,” don’t stop, keep up the jokes guys, and the panel members, perhaps unintentionally, try to stretch out that period of your witty mockery for as long as possible.  Which isn’t that long, but hey they have to try.

Austerity as a substitute for trust

by  Tyler Cowen in

Here is a common view, not incorrect as far as it goes:

Struggling euro-zone economies like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy cannot cut their way back to growth. Demanding rigid austerity from them as the price of European support has lengthened and deepened their recessions. It has made their debts harder, not easier, to pay off.

And here is a useful Paul Krugman post on austerity, perhaps the best single (brief) statement of his views on European austerity.  Three observations:

1. I have yet to see a numerical analysis of European fiscal austerity which adjusts for a) falling ngdp, b) the collapse of their banking systems, c) and the collapse of M3 and money markets in some of these regions, noting that in Italy there are partial (very recent) signs of a money market turnaround.  The blame gets pinned on the fiscal austerity.

2. I have yet to see a numerical analysis of European fiscal austerity which considers the prospect of later catch-up growth.  This can make the costs of austerity much smaller, though of course from discount rates and habit formation there is still a cost.

3. Ideally it really would be better to say “Italy, I trust you to cut spending later, after your economy has recovered.”  This cross-national trust is not present, least of all with Greece but also elsewhere.  What is the best available policy in the absence of this trust, knowing that the periphery nations have to send some kind of credible signal to the wealthier nations of the North, in return for ongoing aid?

You can think of those three points as the “frontier reasons” why not all economists agree on European austerity.  There are indeed some “dY/dG denialists,” but there are too many attacks on them and not enough explorations of the real issues.

Ironically, postponing austerity is most likely to succeed when there is lots of trust in a country (and in fact whether or not that trust is deserved).   You can imagine the Swedes agreeing to themselves “we’ll cut spending three years from now” but the Greeks not, not without external constraint.  Thus, writers who unmask the depravity of the American polity, and who polarize opinion, are oddly enough doing harm to the anti-austerity point of view.

You will find an alternative perspective on intellectual strategy here.

Here is my earlier dialogue between Fabio and Angela.

Political markets in everything

by  Tyler Cowen in

Forgive the music at the link, from Lucknow:

Your vote would not only change the fate of Uttar Pradesh, but it could also fetch extra marks for your child. In a unique first, many schools in the city have decided to award extra marks to students whose parents will cast vote in the assembly election.

And there is this:

The incentive would not be limited to exams alone, it would also find a mention in the character certificate of a student. Mishra suggested that a column for marking whether or not the child successfully convinced his/her parents to vote and hence displayed a sense of civic consciousness will be added in the report card. In case of a student is of 18 years then the relevant entry will be a mark on his/her own performance on the election day.

For the pointer I thank Sharath Rao.

Does unemployment drive rebellion?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Maybe not.  There is a new piece out by Eli Berman, Michael Callen, Joseph H. Felter and Jacob N. Shapiro, in Journal of Conflict Resolution, August 2011.  Here is an ungated version, excerpt:

Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in places with active insurgencies. We test that prediction on insurgencies in Iraq and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly- available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, we find a robust negative correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces and no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians.

Here is a WQ summary of some additional findings from the paper.