Category: Religion
“Late believers”: more rational than you think
It's from The Washington Post, but for a moment I thought I was reading Robin Hanson:
Santa's spell hasn't been broken for Fiona Penn, either. A 12-year-old student at Carl Sandburg Middle School in the Alexandria part of Fairfax, Fiona is aware of the ubiquitous shopping mall Santas and the fact that some presents arrive via a UPS truck, not from the sky. But she chooses to believe that her Santa is different.
"The mall Santas, they change. They get hired and fired. But he's the real one," she said.
The full story is here.
Addendum: Fiona responds to critics in the comments section.
Contra Max Weber
Davide Cantoni (who by the way is on the job market, from Harvard) reports:
Many theories, most famously Max Weber's essay on the 'Protestant ethic,' have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerable religious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, the German Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures in a dataset comprising 276 cities in the years 1300-1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and does not appear to depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition, Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates of the effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results.
The full paper, and other work by Cantoni, is here. I believe this is the most thorough statistical test of the Weberian hypothesis to date.
Swiss minarets
I have a few points:
1. Sooner or later an open referendum process will get even a very smart, well-educated country into trouble.
2. Given that the referendum came up, it was wise to root for its defeat. The victory of the referendum is a symbol that prejudice can now advance a step.
3. That said, was there not some other way to sidestep this dilemma? Washington D.C. doesn't allow tall buildings to compete with the Washington Monument, yet no one considers that a restriction on political freedom (though it may be a bad idea for economic reasons). The Swiss cantons could have done the same for their town churches. Note that a restriction on a minaret is not a restriction on a mosque.
4. I favor greater Muslim immigration into the United States and I think Muslim emigration to Europe is working better than most people think. I am happy to see that Switzerland has become a more cosmopolitan society, in large part by taking in more emigrants, including Muslims. Nonetheless, call me old-fashioned, but I don't think a Swiss town center should look like the photograph above. I guess the Swiss don't either.
5. I also don't have any problem with Mecca limiting the size of Christian churches in that town, or say if an American billionaire wanted to build a really big cross there. (Oddly Dubai allows it.)
6. The United States is special and thus it allows a very, very large mosque not so far from Bowling Green, Ohio. I am pleased we have the sort of polity which makes this possible, but I also recognize many other countries cannot inhabit this same political space.
7. The overall lesson is that knowing how and when to defuse an issue is one very large part of political wisdom. The Swiss usually pass this test but this time they failed it.
The Big Questions
In The Big Questions, Steven Landsburg ventures far beyond his usual domain to take on questions in metaphysics, epistemology and ethics. Beginning with Plato, mathematicians have argued for the reality of mathematical forms. Rene Thom, for example, once said "mathematicians should have the courage of their most profound convictions and thus affirm that mathematical forms indeed have an existence that is independent of the mind considering them." Roger Penrose put it more simply, mathematical abstractions are "like Mount Everest," they are, he said, "just there."
All this must make Steven Landsburg history's most courageous mathematician because for Landsburg mathematical abstractions are not like Mount Everest, rather Mount Everest is a mathematical abstraction. Indeed, for Landsburg, it's math all the way down – math is what exists and what exists is math, A=A.
Read the book for more on this view, which is as good as any metaphysics that has ever been and a far sight better than most. Moreover, Landsburg's view is not empty, it does have real implications. Since there is no uncertainty in math, for example, Landsburg's view supports a hidden variables or multiple-worlds view of quantum physics.
Speaking of quantum physics, The Big Questions, has the clearest explanation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle that I have ever read. In fact, this is a necessary consequence of Landsburg's metaphysical views; since it's all math all the way down, the explanation of the uncertainty principle is the explanation of the math and any true uncertainty or mystery is simply a fault of our own misunderstanding.
Turning to epistemology, the theory of beliefs and knowledge, two chapters stand out for me. I learned a lot from Landsburg remarkable clear explanation of Aumann's agreement theorem–and I say that despite the fact that in the office next to mine is Robin Hanson, one of the world's experts on the theorem (see Robin's papers on disagreement and also his paper with Tyler, but read Landsburg first!).
Landsburg's skills of explanation are also brought to bear in a wonderful little chapter explaining the theory of instrumental variables and of structural econometric modeling – and this from an avowedly armchair economist!
Finally for those, like me, who loved The Armchair Economist and More Sex is Safer Sex there is also lots of economics in The Big Questions. Highly recommended.
NASA FAQ 2012
NASA scientists are frequently being asked questions concerning 2012 and for this reason they have created a
Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.
Sigh…. I too fear for our planet.
Markets in everything, Jesus vs. germs edition
A company called Purity Communion Solutions
was founded in 2007 to market "germ-free products that take the worry
out of contracting germs while receiving communion, and ultimately
increasing communion participation and church attendance." Purity
Communion Solutions already has 375,000 client churches, church supply
houses and the like, and its Web site features all sorts of information
about the H1N1 virus, as well as products that aim to keep you in
church, and keep you healthy. They include an automated host dispenser
in gold, silver, or white, as well as wafers infused with wine:
"Improved taste and texture" and "eliminates germs, spills &
waste."
And if you don't already know:
Christians [sic] not only gather together for worship at least weekly, but
they also dip their fingers in common fonts of holy water, pass baskets
up and down the pews to collect donations, exchange handshakes and hugs
at the sign of peace, and — in varying formats — share bread and wine
at communion, sometimes drinking from a single chalice or picking from
a loaf of bread. Those churches in which a priest or minister gives out
individual wafers of consecrated bread aren't much better off, studies
show, especially if the minister is dipping the Host in a chalice or
placing it on each communicant's tongue.
Here is the full story and I thank The Browser for the pointer.
Addendum: Here is a related article.
The countercyclical asset, a continuing series
Religious goods stores have been doing a record business in St. Joseph statues. Buried in the garden of a home for sale, the doll allegedly helps the house to find a buyer.
Here is more information. One seller said:
Some find the notion of magic house sales distasteful. “If you just
bury the statue in the ground, you’re not going to sell your home,”
said Gerard Siccardi, whose family runs a religious-goods business in
White Plains. “You’re supposed to pray. You’re supposed to have some
reverence about this. It’s a faith-based item.”
Assorted Links: God and Mammon Edition
- Art Carden asks can Francisco's money speech be reconciled with 1 Timothy 6:9-10 KJV?
- Can Christians be Capitalists?, AEI wants to know.
- "Accountants and clergy are both well educated and intelligent, yet we
pay accountants a lot more than the clergy. Is this because we care
more about money than about God?" Robert Whaples explains.
Mullah maximization
It turned out the Shah's curators knew what they were doing. They had bought some outstanding contemporary paintings — including Warhol's Suicide (Purple Jumping Man) and the stellar Woman III — to fill the museum that was never built. Say what you want about the Ayatollah, but despite his public rhetoric about the decadence of the West, his regime knew valuable assets when it saw them. The regime hung onto the paintings, rather than burn them along with the American flag.
That is from Richard Polsky's new and fun i sold Andy Warhol (too soon). The book is a sequel of sorts to Polsky's earlier I Bought Andy Warhol. I am also a fan of Polsky's earlier Art Market Guides.
The culture that is Brazil
Reborn in Christ is among a growing number of evangelical churches in Brazil
that are finding ways to connect with younger people to swell their
ranks. From fight nights to reggae music to video games and on-site
tattoo parlors, the churches have helped make evangelicalism the
fastest-growing spiritual movement in Brazil.
…The night of the Extreme Fight, dozens of teenagers and young adults
hovered around the church. In the front room, booths sold hot dogs and
pizza, and young people lined up in one corner to get religious-theme
tattoos like “I Belong to Jesus.” In the main room, there were video
games, a D.J. spinning a mix of hip-hop and funk, and a projection
screen showing a DVD of the Harlem Globetrotters.
Though most
came for the main event, the Extreme Fight, they lingered. After four
fights and Pastor Maffei’s sermon, members paired up. One placed his
hand over the other’s forehead and spoke of Jesus Christ; the other
closed his eyes tightly.
Here is more.
Nose jobs
According to a number of sources, Iran is the "nose job capital of the world" probably because other signals of beauty are shrouded (by law). Iran also has plenty of well-educated doctors. Gene Expression has some links and a few alternative hypotheses.
The benefits of competition
More pet rapture insurance! I thank James Hinckley for the pointer. Note that this service, unlike the other, vows not to have sex with your pets. That's what economists call quality competition. Lawrence Abbott once wrote a very good book on that idea.
Insurance markets in everything, no arbitrage condition edition
I enjoyed this one:
You've committed your life to Jesus. You know you're saved. But when the Rapture comes what's to become of your loving pets who are left behind? Eternal Earth-Bound Pets takes that burden off your mind.
We are a group of dedicated animal lovers, and atheists. Each Eternal Earth-Bound Pet representative is a confirmed atheist, and as such will still be here on Earth after you've received your reward. Our network of animal activists are committed to step in when you step up to Jesus.
We are currently active in 20 states and growing. Our representatives have been screened to ensure that they are atheists, animal lovers, are moral / ethical with no criminal background, have the ability and desire to rescue your pet and the means to retrieve them and ensure their care for your pet's natural life.
…Our service is plain and simple; our fee structure is reasonable. For $110.00 we will guarantee that should the Rapture occur within ten (10) years of receipt of payment, one pet per residence will be saved. Each additional pet at your residence will be saved for an additional $15.00 fee. A small price to pay for your peace of mind and the health and safety of your four legged friends.
Unfortunately at this time we are not equipped to accommodate all species and must limit our services to dogs, cats, birds, rabbits, and small caged mammals.
Thank you for your interest in Eternal Earth-Bound Pets. We hope we can help provide you with peace of mind.
For the pointer I thank The Browser.
Adam Phillips on moderation and balance
Here is the closing bit of the essay:
There is, though, a third possibility, the one that I want to end on because it seems to me potentially the most interesting, though perhaps the most daunting. This is that the religious fanatic is someone for whom something about themselves and their lives is too much; and because not knowing what that is is so disturbing they need to locate it as soon as possible. Because the state of frustration cannot be borne – because it is literally unbearable, as long-term personal and political injustice always is – it requires an extreme solution.
In this account our excessive behaviour shows us how obscure we are to ourselves or how we obscure ourselves; how our frustrations, odd as this may seem, are excessively difficult to locate, to formulate. Wherever and whenever we are excessive in our lives it is the sign of an as yet unknown deprivation. Our excesses are the best clue we have to our own poverty, and our best way of concealing it from ourselves.
Bill Maher unleashes his inner Bryan Caplan
Bill Maher at the Huffington Post:
Or take the health care debate we're presently having: members of Congress have recessed now so they can go home and "listen to their constituents." An urge they should resist because their constituents don't know anything. At a recent town-hall meeting in South Carolina, a man stood up and told his Congressman to "keep your government hands off my Medicare," which is kind of like driving cross country to protest highways.
I'm the bad guy for saying it's a stupid country, yet polls show that a majority of Americans cannot name a single branch of government, or explain what the Bill of Rights is….
Nearly half of Americans don't know that states have two senators and more than half can't name their congressman. And among Republican governors, only 30% got their wife's name right on the first try.
Sarah Palin says she would never apologize for America. Even though a Gallup poll says 18% of Americans think the sun revolves around the earth. No, they're not stupid. They're interplanetary mavericks….
People bitch and moan about taxes and spending, but they have no idea what their government spends money on. The average voter thinks foreign aid consumes 24% of our federal budget. It's actually less than 1%….
And I haven't even brought up America's religious beliefs. But here's one fun fact you can take away: did you know only about half of Americans are aware that Judaism is an older religion than Christianity? That's right, half of America looks at books called the Old Testament and the New Testament and cannot figure out which one came first.
And these are the idiots we want to weigh in on the minutia of health care policy?
Very funny. If only it were not true.