Category: Uncategorized

*The Middle Kingdoms: A New History of Central Europe*

by  Tyler Cowen in

An excellent book by Martyn Rady, here is the passage most relevant to the history of economic thought:

A Norwegian economist and his wife have published a line of bestsellers in the field of economics written before 1750.  Top is Aristotle’s Economics.  Composed in the fourth century BCE, it is still available in paperback.  Martin Luther’s denunciation of usury (1524) is number three.  But there, in the top ten, is an unfamiliar name — Veit Ludwig von Seckendorff (1626-1692), who was a government official in the duchy of Saxe-Gotha in Thuringia.  Seckendorff’s German Princely State (Teutscher Fürsten-Staat, 1656) is a thousand-page blockbuster that went through thirteen editions and was in continuous print for a century.  Although only ever published in German, it was influential throughout Central Europe, shaping policy from the Banat to the Baltic.

I enjoyed this sentence:

Besides his distinctive false nose (the result of a duelling accident), Tycho Brahe kept an elk in his lodgings as a drinking companion.

And yes the book does have an insightful discussion of Laibach, the Slovenian hard-to-describe musical band.  You can buy it here.

Is Switzerland right-wing? (from my email)

by  Tyler Cowen in

Dear Tyler,

I came across this study today (https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_236420EB8209.P001/REF) that claims that Switzerland is one of the most right-wing (at least nominally) countries in Europe.The federal government has been in the hands of the right since 1848.The federal parliament is currently dominated by the right.26 out of 26 cantonal parliaments are controlled by the right.25 out of 26 canton governments (with the exception of the Jura) are in the hands of the right.Neither the parliament nor the national government has ever been controlled by the left.

How does it fit with your model of Switzerland?

Still an undeservedly overlooked country!

That is from Krzysztof Tyszka-Drozdowski.

Data on diversity, equity, and inclusion

by  Tyler Cowen

Beware the unobserved heterogeneity, but here goes:

This paper measures diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) using proprietary data on survey responses used to compile the Best Companies to Work For list. We identify 13 of the 58 questions as being related to DEI, and aggregate the responses to form our DEI measure. This variable has low correlation with gender and ethnic diversity in the boardroom, in senior management, and within the workforce, suggesting that DEI captures additional dimensions missing from traditional measures of demographic diversity. DEI is also unrelated to general workplace policies and practices, suggesting that DEI cannot be improved by generic initiatives. However, DEI is higher in small growth firms and firms with high financial strength. DEI is associated with higher future accounting performance across a range of measures, higher future earnings surprises, and higher valuation ratios, but demographic diversity is not. DEI perceptions among professional workers, such as R&D employees, are significantly correlated with the number and quality of patents. However, DEI exhibits no link with future stock returns.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Alex Edmans, Caroline Flammer, and Simon Glossner.

The rising tide of housing quality

by  Tyler Cowen in

This study analyzes patterns of housing consumption and expenditures among social safety net recipients since 1985. For safety net recipients, including Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and cash welfare (AFDC/TANF), monthly housing expenditures have risen from $692 to $1,341. However, these increased expenditures partially reflect housing quantity improvements, including more square footage, more rooms, and larger lot sizes. The data also show a marked improvement in housing quality, such as fewer sagging roofs, broken appliances, rodents, and peeling paint. The housing quality for social safety net recipients improved across 35 indicators. These quality improvements equate to a 35 to 44 percent increase in housing consumption and suggest that a typical safety net recipient in 2021 experiences housing consumption equivalent to the average national household in 1985. Though relative housing consumption has remained similar for safety net recipients, this “rising tide” of housing quality may have additional benefits for the health and well being of families and children living in better housing.

That is from a new paper by Erik Hembre, J. Michael Collins, and Samuel Wylde.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

Sunday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Was the original inspiration for James Bond a Jewish guy named Schlomo?

2. Saudi academic markets in everything.

3. Logistics of the Taylor Swift concert tour.

4. Waymo doubles driverless car service area in Arizona.

5. Georgia on homeless policy.

6. “Once student quality and mix of majors are controlled, salary differences between elite and nonelite schools largely disappear.”

7. GPT with search.

Reverse ATMs

by  Tyler Cowen in

I won’t do a double indent, here goes:

“As stores and restaurants attempt to go cashless, they’re installing “reverse ATMs” that dispense stored-value cards in exchange for greenbacks.

Why it matters: More businesses are eschewing cash — a trend accelerated by the pandemic — but states and cities are passing laws banning them from doing so, in deference to people who don’t have bank accounts or credit cards.

  • Handling cash is also a hassle for retailers, with problems including theft and constant runs to the bank.

Driving the news: Reverse ATMs — also known as cash-to-card kiosks — are quickly being installed in all manner of venues that want to go cashless without flouting the law or turning away the “unbanked,” who represent 4.5% of Americans, per the FDIC.”

Here is the story, with further interesting detail, via Anecdotal.

What should I ask Seth Godin?

by  Tyler Cowen in

I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Here is part of his bio:

A serial entrepreneur, Godin has a degree in computer science and philosophy from Tufts University, and an MBA from Stanford Business School. He runs the altMBA, a global business-thinking workshop, and founded two companies, Squidoo and Yoyodyne. In 2013, Godin was one of just three professionals inducted into the Direct Marketing Hall of Fame, and in May 2018 he was inducted into the Marketing Hall of Fame too.

Here is his “could be better” Wikipedia page.  Here is Seth’s blog.  So what should I ask him?

How much does short-run economic “DNA” persist across interruptions?

by  Tyler Cowen in

One of the current macro puzzles is that we keep on receiving good labor market reports during a time of monetary and credit tightening.  Which is the missing “dark matter” variable that helps to explain this?

One general observation, stressed by Conor Sen, is simply that we don’t have real macro data or macro models for pandemics or post-pandemic recoveries.  I agree, but what exactly might be the missing key variable(s)?

If we rewind to say February 2020, might there have been favorable conditions for further economic growth, conditions that implied some degree of momentum but no tendency toward a destructive Minsky moment?  And were those favorable conditions somehow “frozen in amber” during the pandemic, to be thawed, taken out, and reconstituted during the recovery and subsequent growth period?

How exactly does one freeze and then thaw out initial macro conditions during a pandemic?  What exactly would it be that is happening, as might be expressed in a simple model?  Is there some kind of “macro accelerator” that is carried over across time?  Is it a “previously processed working out of excess” that remains in place during the pandemic recovery?  (One tweet by Conor, which I don’t at the moment find, seemed to raise this as one possibility.)

What else?

*Promoting Progress*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The author is Michael Magoon, and the subtitle is A Radical New Agenda to Create Abundance For All.  A good introduction to the ideas surrounding progress, here is the author’s particular recipe for progress:

1. A highly efficient food production and distribution system…

2. Trade-based cities…

3. Decentralized political, economic, religious, and ideological power…

4. At least one high-value-added industry that exports…

5. Widespread use of fossil fuels…

You can buy it here.