Spain fact of the day
By 2039, nearly 4 in 10 Spanish residents will be either immigrants themselves or the children of immigrants.
When combined, these figures imply that, by 2039, approximately 43% of Spain’s workforce — over one in four working-age individuals — will be either first or second-generation immigrants.
Here is the full story, via Mario.
I am pleased to have made the Time magazine 100 most influential people in philanthropy list
Here is the list, here is the profile of me. It is the Emergent Ventures winners who deserve the real credit, thanks to them! And all those at Mercatus who have contributed as well.
The economics of sleep
Full-time, prime-age male workers in the top income quartile sleep around half an hour less per day than those in the lowest quartile.
At the macro level, average sleep duration decreases as a country’s GDP increases.
Higher-income individuals allocate more time to other leisure activities, such as social outings and internet usage, substituting sleep.
Here is the paper by Cristián Jara, Francisca Pérez, and Rodrigo Wagner. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Politically correct LLMs
Despite identical professional qualifications across genders, all LLMs consistently favored female-named candidates when selecting the most qualified candidate for the job. Female candidates were selected in 56.9% of cases, compared to 43.1% for male candidates (two-proportion z-test = 33.99, p < 10⁻252 ). The observed effect size was small to medium (Cohen’s h = 0.28; odds=1.32, 95% CI [1.29, 1.35]). In the figures below, asterisks (*) indicate statistically significant results (p < 0.05) from two-proportion z-tests conducted on each individual model, with significance levels adjusted for multiple comparisons using the Benjamin-Hochberg False Discovery Rate correction…
In a further experiment, it was noted that the inclusion of gender concordant preferred pronouns (e.g., he/him, she/her) next to candidates’ names increased the likelihood of the models selecting that candidate, both for males and females, although females were still preferred overall. Candidates with listed pronouns were chosen 53.0% of the time, compared to 47.0% for those without (proportion z-test = 14.75, p < 10⁻48; Cohen’s h = 0.12; odds=1.13, 95% CI [1.10, 1.15]). Out of 22 LLMs, 17 reached individually statistically significant preferences (FDR corrected) for selecting the candidates with preferred pronouns appended to their names.
Here is more by David Rozado. So there is still some alignment work to do here? Or does this reflect the alignment work already?
Fast Grants it ain’t
In an interview with German business newspaper Handelsblatt, Calviño has emphasized a newfound willingness to embrace risk within the EIB’s financing strategies. The bank aims to process startup financing applications within six months, significantly improving from the current 18-month timespan. Calviño describes this accelerated timeline as a ‘gamechanger,’ pointing out that the high-paced nature of tech innovation requires nimble response times to keep up with market dynamics.
Here is the full document, I believe the European Investment Bank is (by far) the largest VC in Europe proper.
Monday assorted links
1. “Your Fingers Wrinkle in the Same Pattern Every Time After Long Exposure to Water.”
3. Monkey markets in everything, short video.
4. Some Miami schools are embracing AI (NYT).
5. Arpit Gupta delivers an “ouch” to the trade-skeptical left.
6. Lamorna Ash,
7. What is the correlation between education and church attendance, in both America and Europe?
8. Who says AI isn’t useful?: “…we conducted an extensive ChatGPT query to develop a concise AI-generated information sheet designed to coach students in feigning ADHD during a clinical assessment”
Montana Bucks the FDA, Establishes Biotech and Longevity Hub
Longevity: The US state of Montana this week enacted a groundbreaking law that opens the door for clinics and physicians to provide experimental drugs and therapies that have not received approval from the US FDA. The new legislation, known as Senate Bill 535, was signed this week by Governor Greg Gianforte and builds upon the state’s recent expansion of so-called “Right to Try” laws.
Niklas Anzinger, the head of decentralized longevity initiative Infinita City, has long emphasized regulatory zones as a pathway to broader acceleration of therapies, and referred to the new law as a “groundbreaking moment.”
The original SB 422, passed in October 2023, expanded Right to Try access to all patients – not just the terminally ill,” he told us. “That was the first step in enabling a preventative, longevity-focused model of healthcare, rather than reactive sick care. But a major gap remained: there was no clear regulatory pathway. Uncertainty around liability, payments, insurance, and the blurred lines between drug development and clinical care left the field in limbo. SB 535 changes that.”
The new bill establishes a formal licensing framework for healthcare facilities to become experimental treatment centers. These centers can recommend and administer nearly any experimental drug manufactured within Montana, provided it has passed Phase 1 trials.
The law positions Montana as a potential hub for medical tourism and biotech innovation. The bill has been supported by libertarians and the life extension movement. Key backers saw Honduras’s Prospera (previous MR posts on Prospera) as a model. Note, however, that the law passed the Montana legislature with bipartisan backing, reflecting broad appeal for expanding medical access.
Maybe American Federalism isn’t dead yet.
Partisan Corporate Speech
We construct a novel measure of partisan corporate speech using natural language processing techniques and use it to establish three stylized facts. First, the volume of partisan corporate speech has risen sharply between 2012 and 2022. Second, this increase has been disproportionately driven by companies adopting more Democratic-leaning language, a trend that is widespread across industries, geographies, and CEO political affiliations. Third, partisan corporate statements are followed by negative abnormal stock returns, with significant heterogeneity by shareholders’ degree of alignment with the statement. Finally, we propose a theoretical framework and provide suggestive empirical evidence that these trends are at least in part driven by a shift in investors’ nonpecuniary preferences with respect to partisan corporate speech.
That is from a recent paper by William Cassidy and Elisabeth Kempf. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Has Buddhism been statist for a long time?
Again, as was also the case in so many Buddhist countries, the success of Buddhism relied heavily on its connections to the court. In Korea, the tradition of “state protection Buddhism” was inherited from China. Here, monarchs would build and support monasteries and temples, where monks would perform rituals and chant sutras intended to both secure the well-being of the royal family, in this life and the next, and protect the kingdom from danger, especially foreign invasion.
…As in China, the Korean sangha remained under the control of the state; offerings to monasteries could only be made with the approval of the throne; men could only become monks on “ordination platforms” approved by the throne; and an examination system was established that placed monks in the state bureaucracy. As in other Buddhist lands, monks were not those who had renounced the world but were vassals of the king, with monks sometimes dispatched to China by royal decree. With strong royal patronage, Buddhism continued to thrive through the Koryo period (935-1392), with monasteries being granted their own lands and serfs, accumulating great wealth in the process.
That is an excerpt from Donald S. Lopez, Jr. Buddhism: A Journey through History, an excellent book. Maybe the best book on the history of Buddhism I have read? And one of the very best books of this year.
Sunday assorted links
1. Is France Coasean?: “If your pet escapes and falls onto the train tracks in France, a train can be delayed by a maximum of 20 minutes, according to the new protocol, a copy of which was seen by AFP.”
2. Anna Gát podcast with Rohit Krishnan.
3. In the last year, America’s major cities started bouncing back in terms of population.
4. This Op-Ed against selling federal lands made me more enthusiastic about the idea (NYT).
5. Photo of 14,000 year old clay bison.
6. The economics of Desi Arnaz (NYT).
7. That was then, this is now, DEI edition (WSJ).
Claims about falling
There have been many ways to describe a 2-year-old boy surviving a 15-story free fall off an outdoor balcony into a small bush last week in Montgomery County, Maryland. But any discussion quickly gives way to the question: How?
…They treated the boy and took him to a nearby hospital with injuries including a broken leg and multiple internal injuries, police said. They described the injuries as “non-life-threatening” and said the child is expected to survive.
…Hosoi estimates that if a rabbit falls out of airplane and lands on dirt or something softer, the rabbit has a 50 percent chance of not being injured. From there, she said, you can look at animals and humans that are smaller or larger than rabbits.
“The rabbit is the borderline case,” Hosoi said. “Mouse survives. Smaller rabbit survives. Bigger than a rabbit probably results in injury.”
Here is the WaPo article, it is unclear what led to the fall. Should I believe that claim about the rabbit? So Noah could just toss his rabbit out of an airplane and it might be fine? I am not entirely persuaded.
Houston alligator kill markets in everything
In Houston, where custom boots are a source of great pride and style, one local brand is taking the bespoke boot experience to a new level. Republic Boot Company, known for its elevated, hand-crafted creations, just launched a Gator Hunt Experiencewhere customers can source an alligator hide, which will be transformed into a pair of cowboy boots.
Part adventure and part traditional craftsmanship, the experience begins with a hunt in the marshlands near Anahuac, about an hour from Houston, and ends with a custom-made pair of alligator-skin cowboy boots tailored to the client’s vision by a Republic Boot Company boot specialist.
Here is the full story. Note that it costs more for a larger alligator.
The new FTC commissioner Mark Meador
Frankly, he is just flat out terrible. You can read his recent document here. Early on he tells us:
Conservatives must reaffirm that concentrated economic power is just as dangerous as concentrated political power…
I suppose if you hold political power you might think that. Or try this bit from the conclusion:
But we can make it {antitrust law] more just by ensuring that we do not allow a preoccupation with economic speculation to water down robust enforcement, preferring to err on the side of cautious deconcentration rather than hopeful deference to the interests of concentrated economic powers. Powers, I will note, that apart from their putative lines of business increasingly declare open war on the moral values that undergird the foundation of our constitutional republic.
That last line segues into my next point, namely that perhaps he is hostile to economic analysis ecause it does not judge the morality of the companies under consideration. (By the way, if the company is truly evil, you might want market power and higher prices!) On p.32, he calls for explicitly limiting the influence of economists, for instance:
statutorily cabining the use of economic evidence…
You can debate what exactly he might mean by that, but he does not seem intent on raising the status of economists in governmental processes. Is moving further in that direction really the right way to go these days? He notes also that:
…antitrust law today has strayed into exactly the kind of “economic extravaganza” that Bork warned against.
Is he referring to Lina Khan?
Nor can he keep up a basic level of professionalism. Like so many on the current political right, he saves his greatest scorn for libertarians, who arguably are those most likely to see through the power charade. Here is one example:
Conservatives must reject the lies they have been told by libertarianism…
As a political motive, perhaps projection is sometimes underrated.
The link and pointer are via Larry.
Claims about police shootings
There is a new book by Tom S. Clark, Adam N. Glynn, and Michael Leo Owens, called Deadly Force: Police Shootings in Urban America. Here are a few of the conclusions:
…we were more likely to obtain records [on police shootings] from cities with women mayors and more women on municipal legislatures.
And, most interesting to me:
…we also found that fewer police shootings occurred in cities with more police, all else equal.
And:
…Black and Hispanic officers are disproportionately the ones involved in police shootings. That is particularly true when a Black civilian is the subject of the shooting.
I do not follow this area closely, but the book seems of interest.
Saturday assorted links
1. Should we change the status of statins?
2. Article once covered on MR retracted by MIT. And more detail here.
3. Single-stair apartment buildings are coming to Colorado.
4. Burgess Meredith explains a British pub, in the 1940s, eight-minute video.
5. New Yorker profile of Katherine Boyle.
7. UK overtakes China as second largest Treasuries holder (FT).
8. Henry Oliver on Jane Austen (FT).