The economics of secession

The classic paper is Buchanan and Faith, AER 1987.  Here is a recent extension of this classic work, with a dash of economic determinism:

Secessionist movements present themselves to the global public as analogues of colonial liberation movements: long-established identities are denied rights of self-determination by quasi-imperial authorities. Self-determination is presented as the solution to the challenge of peaceful coexistence between distinct peoples. The global public not only accepts this message but reinforces it: both Hollywood and diasporas relay it back to populations in developing countries. In this paper, we will argue that the discourse of secessionist movements cannot be taken at face value. We will suggest that a more realistic characterization of secessionist movements is that their sense of political identity is typically a recent contrivance designed to support perceived economic advantage, if the secession is successful, and facilitated by popular ignorance.

There are, of course, plenty of successful secessions.  Slovakia has been successful nation because of a language and a desire to be free of Czech rule, backed by EU free trade, EU largesse and political precommitment.  Or secession can help you break free of an evil empire, such as when Georgia left the former Soviet Union.  The most likely American state to make a success out of secession is, I think, Texas (or offer up your pick in the comments).  A Texan nation is hardly a good idea, but at least the state is big, has a diversified economy, has an outlet to the water, has a history of independence, and has a border with another nation, namely Mexico. 

The least likely American state to make a success of secession is, I think…Alaska.  The state takes in lots of federal money, has only a small natural population base, and is not too far from Russia.  Here are some data on which states receive the most on net from the federal government.  According to these numbers, only the state of New Mexico benefits more in (proportional) fiscal terms.  The states which fare the worst from federal transfers are New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Illinois.

On decay

Robert Gibbons wrote:

When I first read Coase’s (1984: 230) description of the collected works of the old-school institutionalists – as “a mass of descriptive material waiting for a theory, or a fire” – I thought it was (a) hysterically funny and (b) surely dead-on (even though I had not read this work). Sometime later, I encountered Krugman’s (1995: 27) assertion that “Like it or not, … the influence of ideas that have not been embalmed in models soon decays.” I think my reaction to Krugman was almost as enthusiastic as my reaction to Coase, although I hope the word “embalmed” gave me at least some pause.

Thanks to several MR readers for recommending this paper.  I would have written: "Like it or not, the influence of ideas soon decays."

What is the classic book of the 80s and 90s?

That’s Ryan Holiday’s query.  This is not about quality, this is about "representing a literary era" or perhaps just representing the era itself.  I’ll cite Bonfire of the Vanities and Fight Club as the obvious picks.  Loyal MR reader Jeff Ritze is thinking of Easton Ellis ("though not American Psycho").  How about you?  Dare I mention John Grisham’s The Firm as embodying the blockbuster trend of King, Steele, Clancy and others?  There’s always Harry Potter and graphic novels.

Does this count as an event study?

…investors are also unnerved by the aftermath of the five-day war in early August.

Russian shares have lost about a third of their value since hitting record highs in May. Russian and Western bank analysts polled by Reuters have cut forecasts for Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves.

As much as $25 billion in foreign capital may have left Russia since the Georgia conflict started, they said: while their growth forecasts were little changed at 7.5 percent, the crisis sharply cut the liquidity of the banking system.

Here is the article.  The pointer is from Matt Yglesias.

The economic consequences of unwed motherhood

This was published in the American Economic Review in 1994:

We estimate the long-run and life-cycle effects of unplanned children on unwed mothers by comparing unmarried women who first gave birth to twins and unmarried mothers who bore singletons.  We find large short-term effects of unplanned births on labor-force participation, poverty, and welfare recipiency among unwed mothers, but not among married mothers.  Although most of the adverse economic effects of unplanned motherhood dissipate over time for whites, there are larger and more persistent negative effects on black unwed mothers.

Notice that comparing one birth to two, rather than zero to one, tries to address the identification problem, namely that early pregnancy may be correlated with other unfavorable conditions.  For the curious, here are many related articles.  And here is a very useful literature review, which suggests inconclusive results.

Tips for panhandlers, from panhandlers

Currently, the direct, humorous approach is in vogue. That’s why in
many cities today you’ll hear some version of: "I won’t lie to you, I
need a drink." Panhandlers also report that asking for specific amounts
of money lends credibility to pitches. "I need 43 more cents to get a
cup of coffee," a panhandler will declare; some people will give
exactly that much, while others will simply hand over a buck.

Oddly, the tips are offered on-line:

If it seems unlikely that a homeless person would surf the Web for
advice on how to panhandle, that’s exactly the point: many aren’t
homeless and are lying about their circumstances.

And what’s the rate of return?:

Anecdotal surveys by journalists and police, and even testimony by
panhandlers themselves, suggest that begging can yield anywhere from
$20 to $100 a day–though police in Coos Bay, Oregon, found that local
panhandlers were taking in as much as $300 a day in a Wal-Mart parking
lot. “A panhandler could make thirty to forty thousand dollars a year,
tax-free money,” Baker says.

The Anglo Files

Upper-class pronunciations are all over the place.  The Cholmondeleys are pronounced the CHUM-leys.  The Earl of Harewood is the Earl of HAR-wood.  The Beaulieux are the BEW-leys.  In accordance with the convention that French words should be pronounced as far away from the actual French style as humanly possible, just to show those French people who’s boss, Beauchamp Place, a street in Knightsbridge, BEACH-um Place.  Jacques, in Shakespeare: JAKE-weeze.  Your valet is your VAL-let.  Madame Tussaud’s wax museum?  To some Brits it’s MA-dam TOO-sod’s).

That is from Sarah Lyall’s not fully analytical but often quite amusing The Anglo Files: A Field Guide to the British.

Here is a picture of Thomas Cholmondeley [CHUM-ley], and with this caption: "The trial has opened in Nairobi of an aristocrat
accused of murdering a black Kenyan man he suspected of poaching on his
family’s 100,000-acre estate."  The case, the second of its kind brought against Thomas, remains pending.  Here is more information.  Here is his girlfriend.

Nationalism

What do you get when you plot the genetic fingerprints of more than
1000 Europeans on a grid? An image that looks surprisingly like a map
of Europe. The findings reveal that our DNA contains a sort of global
positioning system, which researchers can use to pinpoint where in the
world both we and our relatives came from….

"I couldn’t believe the picture was so clear," says Carlos
Bustamante, senior author and statistical geneticist at Cornell
University. "I, for one, fell off my chair." Italy and Spain clearly
had their own cluster of genetically similar individuals, for example,
and there were even distinctions between French-, German-, and Italian-
speaking populations within Switzerland.

The results make sense,
says Bustamante. Because people in a region are more likely to marry
and mate with each other–a factor that may be largely due to shared
language–that gene pool will evolve as a separate cluster that
corresponds to a place on the globe, he explains. "You don’t randomly
mate within Europe. … If you live in Strait of Gibraltar, you’re more
likely to marry someone in Spain versus someone in Moscow."

That’s Science reporting on a new paper, Genes Mirror Geography with Europe, in Nature.

Markets in self-constraint, a continuing series

Peter Risager, a loyal MR reader, relays the following to me:

A Danish chain of gyms is now offering membership free of charge, with the only caveat that you have to show up, in order for the membership to be free. If you fail to show up once per week you will be billed the normal monthly membership fee for that month. This should solve the problem with incentives that gym-membership normally carries – there is suddenly a very large (membership is around 85$ per month) incentive to show up each week.

He offers also a link in Danish.

You can stop worrying

Martin Feldstein and John Taylor reassure us:

And by maintaining strong control over the growth of government spending, Mr. McCain will bring the budget into balance. His long record of fighting against excessive government spending, his plans to veto earmarks and reverse the spending binge of the past few years, and his strong commitment to balancing the budget can make this goal a reality.

Here is the full article, hat tip to Greg Mankiw.

This article claims that goldfish are as smart as mice.

Good Money

At the dawn of the industrial revolution as workers left the fields and moved to industrial employment the demand for a means of payment increased dramatically.  Workers, once paid in kind, needed to be paid in a medium they could use to buy the necessities of life.  Small-tender bank notes, however, were illegal and in Great Britain the production of coin was monopolized by the Royal Mint which failed to provide enough high quality coin to meet the demands of workers and business.  Silver coin, despite the efforts of Sir Isaac Newton, was overvalued and fled the country.  Gold was too expensive to make coins suitable for workingmen and the Mint could not or would not produce high-quality copper coins.

Good Money is George Selgin’s explanation of how enterprising button makers solved what Sargent and Velde called The Big Problem of Small Change thereby making the industrial revolution possible.  Selgin is a monetary theorist so you might expect a dry account of monetary history but the mint-battle between Matthew Boulton, whom Wired once named the ultimate CEO, and copper-king Thomas Williams propels the story forward. If you can imagine, Good Money is something of a cross between Friedman and Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States (although not as broad in scope) and a business epic like Barbarians at the Gate.   I also liked how Selgin draws on newspapers, novels, limericks and tavern songs to illustrate the problems and events of the time.  This bard was both a good economist (he has Gresham’s Law!) and public choice scholar.

‘Tis Gold buys Votes, or they’d have swarmed ere now,
Copper serves only for the meaner Sort of People
Copper never goes at Court
And since on Shilling can full Twelve Pence weight,
Silver is better in Germany
‘Tis true the Vulgar seek it, What of that?
They are not Statesmen,-let the Vulgar wait.

The money problem influenced and was influenced by all of the major events of the day so Good Money is also an economic and political history of the industrial revolution.  Here’s an interesting tidbit. Company stores were not so much a way for firms to rip off employees (why not just pay them less?) but were rather a means of economizing on coin.  Selgin shows how the shortage of coin sheds light on a number of other otherwise peculiar business practices. 

What lessons can be drawn from the history of private coinage?  Private money circulated only if it was voluntarily accepted as a means payment.  Thus the primary problem faced by private firms was how to create trust and credibility.  To encourage circulation, for example, issuers promised to redeem their tokens in gold (which the Royal Mint did not).  In turn, the promise to redeem gave producers an incentive to make their coins difficult to counterfeit, which they did by making the coins beautiful – numismatists will appreciate the full-color illustrations of the private coinage produced by Boulton and his rivals – as well as technologically advanced. 

Today, the big problem of small change is no longer such a big problem, although shortages of wanted coin continue to occur sporadically around the world (e.g. here and here) as well as surpluses of unwanted coin.  Nevertheless, the basic problems of private coinage were trust and credibility.  Modern issuers of digital cash face the same problems and thus Selgin’s history is a valuable reminder about the scope and potential of alternative monetary institutions.

Full Disclosure: I was enthusiastic about Good Money when I read it in manuscript which is why it is published by the University of Michigan Press and co-published by the Independent Institute where I am director of research (n.b. you can buy Good Money at the previous link at a small discount to the Amazon price).