Are there reasons to be dogmatic?

That’s another request; the exact wording was "The five best reasons to think you should be more dogmatic about the economic beliefs you are not dogmatic about." 

I’ll give one reason, namely that, somewhat counterintuitively, dogmatism can further the generation of new ideas.  Yes, this does require a special meaning of the word dogmatic.  I’m not talking about a grouchy guy who goes "harumph" whenever he counters a new idea.  I’m talking about the person who generates the new idea!  In strict Bayesian terms, most innovators are not justified in thinking that their new ideas are in fact correct.  Most new ideas are wrong and the creator’s "gut feeling" that he is "onto something" is sometimes as epistemologically dubious as is the opinion of the previous scientific consensus.  Yet we still want that they promote these new ideas, even if most of them turn out to be wrong. 

In this view, the so-called "reasonable" people are selfishly building up their personal reputations at the expense of scientific progress.  They are too reasonable to generate new ideas.

To put it another way, there are two kinds of truth-seeking behavior:

1. Hold and promote the view which leads to society most likely settling upon truth in the future, or

2. Hold and promote the view which is most likely to be correct.

These two strategies coincide less than many people think.  Which do you prefer and why?

Addendum: Here is a recent NYT article.  Excerpt:

Voters who insist that they are undecided about a contentious issue are
sometimes fooling themselves, having already made a choice at a
subconscious level, a new study suggests.  Scientists have long known that subtle biases can skew evaluations of
an issue or candidate in ways people are not aware of. But the new
study, appearing Thursday in the journal Science, suggests that
professed neutrality – sitting on the fence – leaves people more
vulnerable to their own inherent biases than choosing sides early.

Will Bryan Caplan endorse this?

Ways that sheep can die

Getting stuck on their backs and dying of suffocation
Attacked by flies
Eaten by maggots
Being attacked by dogs or any other living creature
Being frightened into a heart attack by imagining the dog is going to attack, even though it is not
Drowning (Are we surprised sheep cannot swim?)
Suffocating in snow (surprisingly common)
Hoof infections that poison the blood
Almost exploding with grass because they have eaten too much and are unable to pass wind
If they get too hot
If they get too cold

That’s from Marti Leimbach and I wonder how many sheep die of old age.  With that, it is time to leave Santiago and return home.

Why this recession might last a while

The column is entitled: "Finding the Mess Behind the Mess."  The key line is:

The fundamental [macroeconomic] problem in the American economy is that, for years,
people treated rising asset prices as a substitute for personal
savings.

After discussing some adjustment problems, here are comments on policy:

One path that is likely to prove
counterproductive is further fiscal stimulus in the form of tax
rebates. Such stimulus can raise consumer spending and bolster the
economy in the short run, but it works – if it works at all – only by
pushing consumers to spend rather than to save. It merely postpones
needed adjustments by providing a grab bag of goodies at exactly the
wrong time.

Here is the conclusion:

Have you ever tried to undo a bunch of tangled wires or cords? If
you don’t pull on the right wires in the right order, the mess becomes
worse. If you pull too hard, the whole thing can break. But if your
first pulls are good ones, the untangling becomes easier with each
move.

That’s like our economy’s situation today. If we expect
too much too quickly, we’ll make matters worse. But there is a way out
of the mess, and it lies in our hands.

Be careful, and start pulling.

I’ve become increasingly interested in how an economy can be "tangled up," a notion I first learned from Axel Leijonhufvud.  The literature on self-organizing critical systems considers this idea, but I don’t think it has been expressed in simple, intuitive form and in a manner that can be integrated with other macroeconomic ideas.

Top Chef

This one is a request from a long time ago.  Wintercow20, a loyal MR reader, asked:

What do you think of Top Chef? I am an addict!

I am a fan of reality TV but mostly I have chosen blogging instead.  I’ve seen about a dozen Top Chef episodes, mostly through the urging of darling Yana.  Mark of excellence: the drama is so good that the commentary makes sense even though you can’t taste the food.  It’s a show about learning, excellence, and motivation.  The voice-over narratives are an object lesson in behavioral economics and self-deception.

Here is a wonderful post by Grant McCracken on reality TV; excerpt:

Reality programming is not just cheap TV, it is responsive TV. Surely,
one of the most sensible way for the programming executive to
get back in touch with contemporary culture is to turn the show offer
to untrained actors who have no choice but to live on screen, in the
process importing aspects of contemporary culture that would otherwise
have to be bagged and tagged and brought kicking and screaming into
the studio and prime time.  Reality programming is contemporary culture
on tap.  It is by no means a "raw feed."  That is YouTube’s job.  But
it is fresher than anything many executives could hope to manage by
their own efforts.  In effect, reality programming is "stealing
signals" from an ambient culture, helping TV remain in orbit.  (Mixed
metaphor alert.  Darn it, too late.)

Grant adds: "Reality programming also serves as a way for a divergent culture to
stay in touch."

Addendum: I don’t see why she married Salman Rushdie; books are reproducible after all.

Second addendum: Here is Matt Yglesias, on the new form of reality TV…markets indeed in truly everything.

The wisdom of Tim Harford

Libertarian paternalism is the brainchild of Profs Thaler and
Sunstein, but nudging is not. Nudging is good architecture, good design
or good marketing and most nudges have been invented by private sector
companies. Prof Thaler’s best policy idea – a pension plan called Save
More Tomorrow – was tried by a manufacturing company rather than a
government.

Effective nudges are so common in the private sector
that politicians should be asking themselves why.

Here is more.

Rules for eating in Chilean restaurants

1. Order the avocado ("palta," not "aguacate") whenever you can.

2. Order crab, in any manifestation possible, whenever you can.  There is nothing you should prefer over the crab.

3. Scallops are next in the hierarchy.  The sea urchin is quite good if you like it.

4. The fish is of excellent quality but the preparations are usually boring.  The greater the number of sauces you are offered, the less likely you should take any of them.

5. Fear not the mayonnaise.  It is good.  Really.

6. Parmesan cheese on either clams or scallops is excellent.

7. If you can, try a ham and cheese sandwich, roast beef, figs, mashed potatoes, vanilla ice cream, honey, butter, and the juices.

8. Provided you obey these rules, do not be put off by simple-sounding menus.

9. The overall quality of the food is very high, but the very best restaurants are not much better than the good restaurants.  This is often the case in areas with excellent natural ingredients, as human labor becomes a less important input.

10. A subtle blending of Chilean and Peruvian food is occurring in Santiago; the Peruvian restaurants by the way are first-rate.

The economics of Joseph Biden

Here are his votes on trade issues.  They could be better, noting that this is unlikely to be his major function.  Cato gives him 42 percent on trade issues, noting that he once wanted to ban all toy imports from China.  Here is Biden on budget issues; more conservative than I would have thought.  Here is Biden on internet issues.  David Brooks offered an interesting personal portrait of the man:

Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature
is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high
school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability,
and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because
of his inability to finish a sentence.

He developed an odd smile
as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s
speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments
that may have gone unmade during his youth.

Today, Biden’s
conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding
feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what
he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.

Maybe he would have done well in academia.

Walter Benjamin’s tips for writing

An occasional MR reader sent me these:

I.
Anyone intending to embark on a major work should be lenient with
himself and, having completed a stint, deny himself nothing that will
not prejudice the next.    
   

II.
Talk about what you have written, by all means, but do not read from it
while the work is in progress. Every gratification procured in this way
will slacken your tempo. If this regime is followed, the growing desire
to communicate will become in the end a motor for completion. 

III.
In your working conditions avoid everyday mediocrity. Semi-relaxation,
to a background of insipid sounds, is degrading. On the other hand,
accompaniment by an etude or a cacophony of voices can become as
significant for work as the perceptible silence of the night. If the
latter sharpens the inner ear, the former acts as a touchstone for a
diction ample enough to bury even the most wayward sounds. 

IV.
Avoid haphazard writing materials. A pedantic adherence to certain
papers, pens, inks is beneficial. No luxury, but an abundance of these
utensils is indispensable.    

V. Let no thought pass incognito, and keep your notebook as strictly as the authorities keep their register of aliens.   

VI.
Keep your pen aloof from inspiration, which it will then attract with
magnetic power. The more circumspectly you delay writing down an idea,
the more maturely developed it will be on surrendering itself. Speech
conquers thought, but writing commands it.   

VII.
Never stop writing because you have run out of ideas. Literary honour
requires that one break off only at an appointed moment (a mealtime, a
meeting) or at the end of the work.   

VIII. Fill the lacunae of inspiration by tidily copying out what is already written. Intuition will awaken in the process.   

IX. Nulla dies sine linea — but there may well be weeks.   

X. Consider no work perfect over which you have not once sat from evening to broad daylight.   

XI. Do not write the conclusion of a work in your familiar study. You would not find the necessary courage there.   

XII.
Stages of composition: idea — style — writing. The value of the fair
copy is that in producing it you confine attention to calligraphy. The
idea kills inspiration, style fetters the idea, writing pays off style.   

XIII. The work is the death mask of its conception.

Go Mason!

U.S. News and World Report ranks George Mason the #1 up-and-coming National University.  The economics department and the law school are doing very well but so are many other innovative departments.  The report notes:

Established in 1972, Mason is a relatively young university. Not bound by tradition and old ways of thinking, the university and its
faculty embrace technology and new approaches to learning. Mason was
the first university in the country to offer doctoral programs in
conflict resolution, bioinformatics, computational social sciences, and
information technology; and the first to offer a graduate degree in
biodefense.

Library fines, part II

A US woman has been arrested and handcuffed for failing to pay fines for two overdue library books.

Heidi Dalibor, of Grafton, Wisconsin, is the first to admit that she ignored calls and letters from her local library.

She also admits that she ignored a notice to appear in municipal court or pay the fine, reports the News Graphic.

But the last thing she expected was a knock on her door by Grafton police.

Here is more.  Here is my previous post on library fines.  By the way, she paid the fine and kept the books.

Assorted links

1. Why don’t all peoples form neat, orderly lines?

2. Japan will label carbon footprints for many items

3. Charles Mann, on our eroding supply of dirt and the economics of soil.  I am a big fan of Mann (he wrote the superb 1491) and this is one of the best magazine pieces of this year if not the best.  On top of all the good economics in this piece, learn how the "black revolution" — putting carbon in the soil — may solve agricultural problems and alleviate global warming at the same time.  Hat tip to Kottke.

4. The latest: "Chile’s lower house of congress has suspended plans to boost a $1,626 gasoline subsidy for each of its members."

5. Vegan-libertarian debate and discussion

6. The new Neil Stephenson book

Do self-help books make us happier?

Ad Bergsma says yes:

Advice for a happier life is found in so-called ‘self-help books’, which are
widely sold in modern countries these days. These books popularize insights from psychological science and draw in particular on the newly developing ‘positive psychology’. An analysis of 57 best-selling psychology books in the Netherlands makes clear that the primary aim is not to alleviate the symptoms of psychological disorders, but to enhance personal strengths and functioning. Common themes are: personal growth, personal relations, coping with stress and identity. There is a lot of skepticism about these self-help books. Some claim that they provide false hope or even do harm. Yet there are also reasons to expect positive effects from reading such books. One reason is that the messages fit fairly well with observed conditions for happiness and another reason is that such books may encourage active coping. There is also evidence for the effectiveness of bibliotherapy in the treatment of psychological disorders. The positive and negative consequences of self-help are a neglected subject in academic psychology. This is regrettable, because self-help books may be the most important–although not the most reliable–channel through which psychological insights find their way to the general audience.

Here is the full issue, of the Journal of Happiness Research, and I thank whichever web site led me to this, sorry I forget.

I like that word: bibliotherapy.

Reexamining the benefits of free trade

I have yet to read this paper, by Antoni Estevadeordal and Alan M. Taylor, but it appears to be of considerable interest for recent debates on free trade.  The main argument is that trade really does raise growth rates by a noticeable amount:

According to the Washington Consensus, developing countries` growth would benefit from a reduction in tariffs and other barriers to trade. But a backlash against this view now suggests that trade policies have little or no impact on growth. If "getting policies right" is wrong or infeasible, this leaves only the more tenuous objective of "getting institutions right" (Easterly 2005, Rodrik 2006). However, the empirical basis for judging recent trade reforms is weak. Econometrics are mostly ad hoc; results are typically not judged against models; trade policies are poorly measured (or not measured at all, as when trade volumes are spuriously used); and the most influential studies in the literature are based on pre-1990 experience (which predates the "Great Liberalization" in developing countries which followed the GATT Uruguay Round). We address all of these concerns — by using a model-based analysis which highlights tariffs on capital and intermediate goods; by compiling new disaggregated tariff measures to empirically test the model; and by employing a treatment-and-control empirical analysis of pre- versus post-1990 performance of liberalizing and nonliberalizing countries. We find evidence that a specific treatment, liberalizing tariffs on imported capital and intermediate goods, did lead to faster GDP growth, and by a margin consistent with theory (about 1 percentage point per annum). Endogeneity problems are considered and other observations are consistent with the proposed mechanism: changes to other tariffs, e.g. on consumption goods, though collinear with general tariffs reforms, are more weakly correlated with growth outcomes; and the treatment and control groups display different behavior of investment prices and quantities, and capital flows.

Here is a non-gated version, though it is more than a year older.  If there is any piece that can get Dani Rodrik blogging again, this is it.

Addendum: New updated, ungated version.

The culture that is Dutch

Jean Marie, a loyal MR reader, writes to me:

In the Dutch parliament there was commotion today because it happens to be the case that parents can apply for some EXTRA day-care allowances (state subsidized) when they want to go on holiday WITHOUT their children. As a matter of fact: the tax department explicitly draws their attention to this fact.

Here is a bit more information (in Dutch).