Is the plan to rework Tysons Corner collapsing?
Fairfax County planners on Wednesday will propose rules for builders in Tysons Corner that retreat from the vision
local officials approved last fall, a shift some civic leaders worry
will jeopardize the blueprint to remake the area into a walkable urban
center.
It seems the eight "mini-cities" are on the way out. Why? The area's Revolutionary War era roads can't handle too much additional population density:
Zook and his staff have concluded that the density of what the task
force envisions could be built when Tysons is fully redeveloped in
about 40 years would overwhelm traffic. [TC: Forget about 40 years, it's close to that point right now for about four hours each day.] Planners say that would be
about five times the 44 million square feet of offices, malls, condos
and townhouses there now. Before developers can build high-rises, even
near the Metrorail stations, planners say, the area's already clogged
road network will need to expand to accommodate the extra development
because many of the new residents and office workers will drive. That
would require three new interchanges on the Dulles Toll Road; another
lane on the Beltway between Interstate 66 and Route 7, in addition to
the high-occupancy toll lanes now under construction; and wider lanes
on other local roads.
That is, in a nutshell, why Fairfax County cannot and will not become like central Arlington in the Ballston and Clarendon areas. Recall that some time ago Tysons Corner was ranked as #4 in office space in the entire U.S., if it were to be counted as a city. Many Fairfax County residents look upon Arlington as a quaint experiment, a kind of well-laid out duck pond in somebody's backyard, but not a model for the broader suburban area. The walkable part of Arlington is quite small compared to Tysons Corner (by the way I used to live at Tysons and also have spent time walking it) and density in central Arlington doesn't threaten to crush much of anything.
So the result at Tysons likely will be a bigger edge city with broader roads and more difficult illegal U-Turns. As one local rent-seeker put it:
"We're not like downtown D.C., where you walk three blocks and there's
another Metro station," said Rob Jackson, president of the McLean
Citizens Association.
Rent-seeker he may be, but he's right to suggest that a much denser Tysons — no matter how well done — will overwhelm the local support roads of Vienna and McLean. The bottom line is that path dependence is a very strong force in all these comparisons.
Books on duct tape
Duct tape is possibly the most useful single object in the entire
world outside of the wheel and Swiss army knives. Joe Wilson, a modern
design visionary if ever there was one, shows us how to rip, cut and
fold duct tape to make 18 amazing projects, including a wallet, a
barbecue apron, a lunchbox, a tool belt, a cell phone holder, a
baseball cap, rain gear for pets, a toilet roll cover and Halloween
masks.
We all need a lunch box constructed from duct tape.
If NASA insists that every Space Shuttle mission carries at least one
roll of duct tape then you need this book to satisfy your creative
urges. Buy Ductigami: The Art of the Tape – make something wonderful and gray.
The link is here and I thank Michelle Dawson for the pointer, which is in turn via this link on weird books. There you will also find a discussion of Dale Power's controversial Do-it-Yourself Coffins for Pets and People (check out the Amazon reader reviews) and other notable titles.
Crayons
Fatty acids derived from pork bone fat are used as a hardening agent in crayons and also gives them their distinctive smell.
Here is more, including a comparison to Leonard Read.
The Devil Wears Fake Prada
It's no surprise that people who buy fake merchandise are more likely to cheat in other ways but in this video Dan Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational, explains another one of his ingenious experiments. Ariely was able to show that randomly inducing people to choose or wear fake merchandise can make them significantly more likely to cheat on a subsequent task. You are what you wear, or another example of the fundamental attribution error.
Hat tip Freakonomics.
James Hamilton replies to Scott Sumner
Let me mention one other real-world complication that has made it difficult for the Fed to achieve a faster growth of nominal GDP. Macroeconomists often like to think of inflation in terms of an aggregate price index, the variable P in the equation of exchange. But, particularly in the current environment, aggressive stimulus by the Fed is unlikely to show up as higher wages or the prices of most services, but instead would raise relative commodity prices and could in a worst case scenario precipitate a currency crisis, both of which would be highly destabilizing in their own right. I agree with Sumner that the Fed could and should have done more, but would caution that it is also possible for the Fed to try to do too much. I come back to the perspective with which I opened – given the earlier regulatory lapses, significant economic losses could not have been prevented by any monetary policy that could have been implemented in the fall of 2008.
There are many more points of interest in this dialogue and further comments to come.
Assorted links
1. The complicated legacy of Norman Borlaug.
2. Elton John is denied a Ukrainian adoptee; so much for Pareto improvements.
3. Via Jim Swofford, the internal politics of journal editing.
4. Best foods in the world, in fifty categories.
Portfolio theory
Chance a U.S. household that owns a Prius also owns an SUV: 1 in 3.
That is from Harper's Index, October issue.
Where do countries stand on the Laffer Curve?
From Mathias Trabandt and Harald Uhlig, there is a new study:
We characterize the Laffer curves for labor taxation and capital income taxation quantitatively for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries by comparing the balanced growth paths of a neoclassical growth model featuring “constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. We derive properties of CFE preferences. We provide new tax rate data. For benchmark parameters, we find that the US can increase tax revenues by 30% by raising labor taxes and 6% by raising capital income taxes. For the EU-14 we obtain 8% and 1%. Denmark and Sweden are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve for capital income taxation.
I guess some of those countries should cut their tax rates. The title of the paper is How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited. You'll find some ungated versions here.
What do economists believe?
When it comes to the tax code, there is less of a consensus than I had expected to find:
Health insurance receives preferential tax treatment. Should the U.S. change the income tax code so that health insurance benefits are taxed the same as income? Economists lean ever so slightly against this idea–44 percent oppose it, while 42 percent favor it. Should the U.S. amend the income tax code to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction? Again, economists are almost evenly split. Should internet sales be exempted from taxation? The majority of economists (57 percent) say “no,” while less than a quarter favor special treatment of internet-based sales.
That's from a survey of AEA members, conducted by Robert Whaples. The paper has other results of interest.
The culture that is Brazil
Reborn in Christ is among a growing number of evangelical churches in Brazil
that are finding ways to connect with younger people to swell their
ranks. From fight nights to reggae music to video games and on-site
tattoo parlors, the churches have helped make evangelicalism the
fastest-growing spiritual movement in Brazil.
…The night of the Extreme Fight, dozens of teenagers and young adults
hovered around the church. In the front room, booths sold hot dogs and
pizza, and young people lined up in one corner to get religious-theme
tattoos like “I Belong to Jesus.” In the main room, there were video
games, a D.J. spinning a mix of hip-hop and funk, and a projection
screen showing a DVD of the Harlem Globetrotters.
Though most
came for the main event, the Extreme Fight, they lingered. After four
fights and Pastor Maffei’s sermon, members paired up. One placed his
hand over the other’s forehead and spoke of Jesus Christ; the other
closed his eyes tightly.
Here is more.
The ethics and economics of randomized trials — a bleg
In late October I'm supposed to talk on this topic at the National Institutes of Health. It's not so much a lecture (this is not my area) as me offering some introductory remarks — from the perspective of an outsider — and then serving as discussion leader.
What should I read? Do you have any particular points to offer on this topic? I (and the NIH) thank you in advance for the assistance.
The cost of the Medicare prescription drug benefit
Megan and Andrew Sullivan are having a squabble about how much it cost (and here). I would remind everyone of this recent research result:
In spite of its relatively low benefit levels, the Medicare Part D benefit generate $3.5 billion of annual static deadweight loss reduction, and at least $2.8 billion of annual value from extra innovation. These two components alone cover 87% of the social cost of publicly financing the benefit.
And here's another research result:
Overall, a $1 increase in prescription drug spending is associated with a $2.06 reduction in Medicare spending.
Both papers are from very reputable sources. Left-wingers focus on the "giveaways" in this plan and conservatives focus on the cost or maybe they don't walk to talk about it at all. It's a little late to go through all the usual pro and con arguments on the policy as a whole. I'd just like to note that – relative to its reputation – the Medicare prescription drug benefit is one of the most underrated government programs of our time. If the goal is to cut or check Medicare spending, and I think it should be, we should do it elsewhere in the program.
It's also possible that the prescription drug benefit will do more for peoples' health (as opposed to their financial security) than will the Obama plan. Try getting people to consider that. The debate has become very emotional and not for the better.
I am more than willing to listen to criticisms of those cited studies. But in the meantime it seems I should rationally believe what I do.
Here is a related post of relevance.
Assorted links
2. Markets in everything: road kill toys.
3. Dynamic pricing for hockey games; why doesn't everyone do this?
4. Five questions for Doug Irwin.
5. The historical roots of the financial crisis, by Arnold Kling.
6. What if yesterday's books were retitled today? Two of my favorites were:
Then: Declaration of Independence
Now: The Pursuit of Happiness: How to get control of your continent and have fun doing it!
And this:
Then: Quotations from Chairman Mao (or "the Little Red Book")
Now: You're Telling Me Comrade! Hilarious but helpful sayings from China's Best Selling Author
*When Brute Force Fails*
That is the new and excellent book by Mark Kleiman and the subtitle is How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment.
The reader learns many interesting facts. In 1974 the average burglary resulted in about four days behind bars (that's the average sentence adjusted by the chance of being caught). The average 1974 burglary yielded about $320 (in today's dollars), which amounts to about $80 a day payment for time behind bars. Even forgetting about the fixed costs of getting a criminal record, or a longer criminal record, that screams out to me: "It isn't worth it!"
Today, for burglary, the average return per day in jail is $22. That is one reason why crime has gone down but the real question is why crime has not fallen even more.
Many burglars are not risk-averse or they underestimate their chances of being caught.
There are many excellent bits and segments in this book.
Bankruptcy court as government intervention
Remember that debate? Many of you argued something like this:
You don't support your statement that "today's bankruptcy procedures
are ill-suited for disposing of a large financial institution in a
timely manner".
Mark me down for preferring a procedure that's established and known over some seat of the pants, unpredictable bailout.
Here is an update:
Lehman Brothers' European clients and creditors could have to wait
another two years before they get back billions of dollars of assets
tied up in the bank when it collapsed a year ago.
Tony Lomas,
partner at PwC and administrator for the bank's European operations,
said he had hoped to have "broken the back" of the case by this time
next year, substantially reconciling claims, returning assets to
clients and putting in place a process for paying dividends to
unsecured creditors.
He said it could now take two more years
after an English judge decided last month that he could not approve a
scheme of arrangement that would have helped hasten the winding up.
Lehman's
European business is one of the biggest and most complex parts of the
bank, with thousands of intricate investments, and client and trading
relationships that are still being unravelled.
"I had hoped to
break the back of this within 24 months but with the setback around the
scheme and other issues, a more realistic estimate is now 24-36
months," Mr Lomas told the Financial Times in an interview.
There is a reason why we should be afraid of putting large financial institutions into bankruptcy court as those courts currently operate. So many of you bash the Fed and the regulators, so few of you bash bankruptcy court. It's not always the "fault" of the court, these are simply difficult cases to unravel and resolve. But so far we're just not trying hard enough to improve bankruptcy procedures as they apply to Lehman and others.