Norway thoughts
Oslo first struck me as more like Scotland than Sweden, most of all the craggy, weather-beaten faces and the wandering derelicts. I mean Inverness and Aberdeen, not Edinburgh. How could such a wealthy and well-organized country have such an ugly capital city? Only the surrounding waters and greenery were pretty. And why were so many people so poorly dressed? Then we went to Bergen — a "Hansa-Stadt" — which felt like familiar emotional territory. People were stylish and the faces were happier and everything seemed more intellectual. The visual synthesis of land, water, industry, and homes was first-rate, and yes sardine factories in the right setting are stunning. Usually I end up liking the uglier city more. Which city is the real Norway, or must I now see Trondheim? How can this country be the best place in the world to hear jazz? It is the young who listen, not the old; the players are sincere and convincing, imagine a blond guy named Thor Gustavsen riffing around a flattened third. We went almost every night, taking one break to hear Varese’s Ameriques, by the Oslo Symphony Orchestra. Yana loved it. The fjords bored me. They are as good as scenery comes, but they felt like a repetition of southern Chile and New Zealand. I admired the homes which had outlets only to the water. I wished I had brought an iPod full of heavy metal for that boat trip.
I asked for Voss water on several occasions, but no one had it. Not even in the train station in Voss. Some Norwegian servers had never heard of it.
I kept on toying with the theory that the country moved quickly from folk paganism to postwar secularism, with only a short Christian interlude in between.
We were never willing to spend on splendid food and the less than splendid food never came cheap. In Bergen I had one of the best fish and chips servings of my life, I told the happy cook he was a genius, equaled only by the fish and chips geniuses of New Zealand. I like to eat fish and chips at least once in every country I visit. Somehow that was my favorite moment of my travels. He gave us a free piece of fish and chips.
Does it make sense to wonder in which countries people are "the most normal" or "the least normal"? I’m fine with the exercise being about the wonderer, not the subjects. On the Continent the French seem the most normal to me. In the North the Swedes seem the most normal.
The joke ends with the exchange: "A: Does it always rain here in Bergen? B: I don’t know, I’m only fourteen years old."
Near Death Experiences and State-Space Consistency
Tyler (and Ryan) ask, Should near death experiences change your life? The answer is no. The reason, however, may surprise you. It’s not because NDEs are unimportant it’s because they are very important.
Recall that a rational choice-plan is time-consistent, you should not plan today to make choices for tomorrow when you know today that you will renege upon those choices tomorrow. Eating cake today because you will diet tomorrow is not a rational choice if you will not in fact diet tomorrow. Time-consistency does not require that you always follow through on today’s plans – new information arrives which may cause you to rationally change your plans – but it does require that you expect to follow through on today’s plans which means that if no new information arrives then you should follow through.
The same idea explains why if you are rational you should not change your life if you experience an NDE. NDEs are not new information. You know that you are mortal, right? You know that you could die today. You know that experiences like Ryan’s are not uncommon. Thus, if you are rational you should not change your life if you experience an NDE.
Do I advise, therefore, that Ryan get on with his life as before? No, not at all. My advice is not for Ryan, it’s for everyone else; Choosing rationally requires that you choose today so that if you have an NDE you will not change your life.
The fact that many people who have an NDE do change their lives is evidence that most people do not choose rationally. Thus the ways in which people who have had NDEs change their lives is important information for the rest of us who want to choose rationally.
Do you recall the secret to happiness offered by Gilbert, the one you almost certainly will not accept? It is to accept that your own anticipations of what you will do and feel if certain things occur is not as good a guide to what you will actually do and feel as are the actions and feelings of other people who actually have experienced those events. Thus, if near death experiences tend to make people more giving, caring and less fearful of change then this is how you should act today.
Long-time readers will know that I take the idea of reflective equilibrium quite seriously.
Post Keynesian economics
Read Brad’s whole post. My broadly similar take sees the post Keynesians as having promoted several important ideas:
1. Price and/or wage stability can be destabilizing; Keynes (sometimes) presented stickiness as a policy recommendation rather than a necessary fact.
2. Financial fragility, a’la Hyman Minsky.
3. Noise traders matter for macroeconomics.
4. Moving Keynesian economics away from the consumption function and IS-LM.
5. Behavioral and psychological imperfections are relevant for macroeconomics.
6. They resurrected interest in the idea of an endogenous money supply.
I’m not entirely on board but overall that is a strong list. These ideas have now been incorporated into the mainstream, but only recently, typically in the 1990s and sometimes by Brad himself.
The post Keynesians went wrong, however, in several ways:
1. Too many of them obsessed over incomes policies. On "public choice" more generally they were naive.
2. Too many viewed Thatcherism, the war against inflation, and other developments as instruments of class warfare, designed to redistribute income from poor to rich.
3. They held too many debates over "what Keynes really meant" and cared too much about distinguishing themselves from mainstream Keynesians, whom they often treated as their worst enemy.
4. They ascribed too much power to the liquidity premium on money, and thought it was easy for an economy to end up in a corner where no one wants to produce new investment assets.
5. They failed to model the complexities of system-wide wage and price stickiness, and the differences between real and nominal stickiness, a’la Romer (ReStud 1990) or Caplin and Spulber. For this reason at some point they stopped coming up with insights on stickiness and fell far behind the rest of the profession.
6. They failed to develop an empirically progressive research program that kept pace with mainstream macro.
7. They failed to realize that the future of Keynesian economics lies in the elements of Milton Friedman — nominal stickiness is real and the action is with monetary policy — that were most Keynesian.
Overall post Keynesianism has been a far more useful heterodox thread than Sraffa and neo-Ricardianism.
The value of heterodox economics
Might I blog this topic all week?
The very existence of heterodox economics brings benefits. A personal anecdote will suffice. My first two publications were both in heterodox journals: the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and the (institutionalist) Review of Social Economy. These articles lifted me into a top graduate school and financial aid (can you imagine how confused the admissions committees were to see a GMU undergrad with an apparently leftie publication record?). I would not have had comparable success at Econometrica.
This tale relates to the value of diversity more generally. We will miss much of the value of diversity by simply listing a bunch of diverse elements and evaluating them one-by-one. Diversity brings broader benefits by allowing people to use niches as ladders to further steps, frequently into the mainstream, or in my case into another niche. Diversity is also a form of insurance, and of course it doesn’t always pay off. Finally many excellent mainstream or sometimes even right-wing economists started with an intense interest in social justice, often gleaned from heterodox writings. Vernon Smith was once a socialist, and George Stigler was early on a trust-basher.
Yes the profession is getting better but we also are losing too much diversity in terms of schools of thought. The diminution of the Austrian School, as an organized and intellectually alive phenomenon seems to me a shame, even though I don’t believe in a unique Austrian method. Heterodoxies encourage the mainstream to be more philosophical and more self-reflective.
Sometimes intellectual inefficiency is efficient, and my remarks about heterodox economics should be taken in this light.
Can this be true?
But one feature–whether a language uses pitch as well as vowels and
consonants to convey word meanings–stood apart. Those, such as Chinese,
that encipher meaning in pitch are called “tonal languages”. Those that
do not, like English, are “non-tonal”. And it was versions of Dr
Dediu’s and Dr Ladd’s two microcephaly-related genes that matched the
49 populations along tonal and non-tonal lines.
Language Log (one of the best blogs) has excellent commentary.
Assorted links
1. Alan Sandstrom reviews my book on the Mexican amate painters
2. Lynne Kiesling defends cap and trade for CO2 emissions; in favor of carbon taxes see here and here is a "not much difference" point of view.
3. Outsourcing your personal life
4. Our evil spawn: Kevin Grier, last week’s guestblogger, is now blogging (regularly?) over with Mike Munger.
Knocked Up
This humorous and philosophical film — strongly recommended — also offers an implicit market failure argument: raising children is the main thing that goes on in a marriage, yet few of us choose life partners on that basis. The film suggests that a random allocation might be better than selecting a partner on the grounds of smarts, common interests, attractiveness, how good he or she makes us feel, and so on.
I can think of a few hypotheses:
1. Common interests in life are correlated with common philosophies of child-rearing, so all is well in the marriage market.
2. High-status men and attractive women are also best at raising children, so seek those sorts of partners in any case.
3. Forget what your utility function seems to be telling you, seek a partner who is willing to do all the dirty work when it comes to kids. Seek submission. This is worth way more than you at first think.
4. Common interests hinder effective child-rearing, since it means the partners have more to lose when children take over their lives. Opt for a low expectations marriage.
5. We should require prospective marriage partners to play sophisticated computer games, mimicking the familial struggles they will later face. In the limiting case, dating should be replaced by joint kid-raising sessions, using small and unruly robots if necessary (the film in fact portrays this).
6. Judith Harris was right, genes matter but not how you raise your kids. Marry whomever you want, following nature’s dictates, and neglect the little buggers that result, it doesn’t matter.
None of these hypotheses, in my view, replace the default option of simple market failure. And yes this is one of the biggest institutional failures in the entire world.
Should near death experiences change your life?
Ryan, a loyal MR reader, asks for good reason:
Three days ago I rolled my car three times on a back country road at least 40 minutes away from the nearest ambulance. The car was crushed to a considerable degree except for the part I occupied, but I walked away without a scratch. My question is, what implications should this have for my life? People around me expect me to act differently, and I do feel more reflective. But aside from needing a new car, and knowing to drive more carefully on gravel roads in the future, nothing else has actually changed. Is it reasonable for me to begin introspection, or should I hold to my previous plans and priorities absent new information?
I have no real data and only a few intuitions. I say use the experience to rationalize a change you wanted to make anyway. Most people have less than perfect courage or willpower, but a near-death experience can provide a pro-change focal point in a multiple-selves game. Alternatively the trauma of the tragedy can disrupt the previous mindset and thus weaken the hold of status quo bias. Or the vividness of a shorter time horizon moves the multiple selves to a "trembling hand" solution concept, in which life pursuits are more robust to the probability of an early death.
This account, based on interviews with survivors, suggests that near-death experiences are "beautiful" and make people unafraid of death and more giving and more caring. Don’t forget the tunnel and the bright white light, etc.
In part these people are responding to social expectations; would hunter-gatherers offer the same reports? In part these people may have been fooled by the endorphins which accompany many near-death experiences.
I suspect a very small minority of people use near-death experiences to become more selfish, backed of course by self-deception. (Can we measure charitable contributions before and after?) In these cases the talk about the beautiful white light is in reality a claim that the victim is beautiful (by affiliation?) and thus deserves to be treated better. The reported change seems hard for others to criticize or deflect ("life is beautiful and hey, I almost DIED!"), but the actual demand is for more of the social surplus. The victim need only report that the new selfish changes are part of one large intertwined bundle of life reevaluation…
The bottom line?: In predictive terms, I would expect that near-death experiences make good people better and bad people worse.
Addendum: See Ryan’s remarks in the comments.
Final Comments + Thanks
To all of you who have responded to my posting on Marginal Revolution, many thanks. I have enjoyed the dialogue and the sparring. All of us, I believe, have our country’s interests at heart even though we may come at these issues from different perspectives. My purpose in writing The Price of Liberty – which, as I have noted in several postings is a quote from Hamilton about Revolutionary War debt and not about the Iraq War – was to trace the history of wartime financing from the Revolution through the War on Terrorism to see what we can learn from the past and how we can do things better. I think even those who have taken issue with me about the current set of policy issues will enjoy the history contained in the book. I hope that whatever you think, you will let me know your thoughts, your comments and your criticisms. I hope you at least find it interesting – even if there are parts of it you disagree with.
Thanks again to Marginal Revolution for hosting me as a guest blogger this week.
Warm regards,
Bob Hormats
author of The Price of Liberty
Planet Earth
The first disc of this BBC-produced nature series blew me away, buy it here. Amazon calls it "quite simply the greatest nature/wildlife series ever produced," and no it doesn’t matter that the narrative is at a fourth-grade level and fails to mention the Hotelling rule or the tragedy of the commons.
Robert Frank’s teaching philosophy
What we decided was that if you could commit yourself to the five or
six key ideas, the ones that do most of the heavy lifting in economics,
students really could master those after a semester, and the key device
that we’ve stumbled onto for doing that is a writing assignment.
Here is the full interview with Frank, mostly on his teaching philosophy and his excellent new book, The Economic Naturalist: In Search of Explanations for Everyday Enigmas. My blurb for the book was:
"Smart, snappy and delightful. Bob Frank is one of America’s best writers on economics."
The contributions of Piero Sraffa
1. Sraffa (and more here and here) wrote the seminal paper on the size of the firm under perfect competition. If contracts are perfect, what does a firm mean anyway? He doesn’t quite get to that point, but he did understand that if all the cost curves and demand curves are horizontal, we cannot say how small or how large an individual firm will be. For 1926 this article was amazing.
2. He wrote an excellent 1932 review of Hayek’s business cycle theory. First he questioned the idea of a "natural rate of interest" as a base from which the market rate might deviate. He pointed out that there is an entire schedule of natural rates. His deeper point was that monetary policy-induced resource shifts were not necessarily unstable and due for costly reversal. The newly-favored sectors might simply keep the resources they had captured through seigniorage, "forced savings," and other non-neutral monetary effects. Oddly the economic pessimists, usually on the left, have forgotten these points in recent times.
3. He wrote a beautiful introduction to the collected works of David Ricardo.
4. In 1960 he published the neo-Ricardian cult tract The Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities. Sadly this book is almost entirely misleading. It tries to resurrect the Ricardian idea that costs alone determine price (or perhaps I should say it cryptically hints at that idea without actually defending any real propositions at all).
At first glance cost-based theories seem plausible. Draw a horizontal cost curve, as would arise from constant returns to scale, and demand will not matter for price. Are constant cost such an unreasonable assumption? Can we not in principle multiply every economic input and receive proportionate outputs? Not really. There are almost always fixed factors and the "pure multiplication" thought experiment is not very relevant for price in the real world. Both Marshallian scissors matter.
Now this was not Sraffa’s argument, but Sraffa’s argument was far more complicated and also worse. It relied on aggregation theorems which simply didn’t stick, and Mark Blaug tore it apart.
Sraffa also had important relationships with Gramsci and Wittgenstein, but those are topics for other posts, not necessarily by me.
Overall the guy’s output was quite sparse. He was brilliant before the War but his major book was headed in the wrong direction altogether and it should be taught as a mistake, not an alternative.
Markets in everything
Hieronymous Bosch action figures (scroll down to see them), via Brad DeLong.
Glenn Hubbard favors tradeable permits over a carbon tax
Here is the scoop. John Tierney, citing Ron Bailey, disagrees; I score this one for Tierney if only on public choice grounds. Key argument:
The prospect of a cap-and-trade system in America has already set off a lobbying frenzy in Washington by industries hoping to write the rules to their advantage. Given legislators’ eagerness to please their hometown industries, it’s easy to imagine them being just as generous as European politicians. By contrast, a carbon tax would be more straightforward – simpler to establish and enforce…
Read Greg Mankiw as well.
Are You a Good Liar?
Are you a good liar? Most people think that they are, but in reality there
are big differences in how well we can pull the wool over the eyes of others.
There is a very simple test that can help determine your ability to lie. Using
the first finger of your dominant hand, draw a capital letter Q on your
forehead.Some people draw the letter Q in such a way that they themselves can read it.
That is, they place the tail of the Q on the right-hand side of their forehead.
Other people draw the letter in a way that can be read by someone facing them,
with the tail of the Q on the left side of their forehead. This quick test
provides a rough measure of a concept known as "self-monitoring". High
self-monitors tend to draw the letter Q in a way in which it could be seen by
someone facing them. Low self-monitors tend to draw the letter Q in a way in
which it could be read by themselves.High self-monitors tend to be concerned with how other people see them. They
are happy being the centre of attention, can easily adapt their behaviour to
suit the situation in which they find themselves, and are skilled at
manipulating the way in which others see them. As a result, they tend to be good
at lying. In contrast, low self-monitors come across as being the "same person"
in different situations. Their behaviour is guided more by their inner feelings
and values, and they are less aware of their impact on those around them. They
also tend to lie less in life, and so not be so skilled at
deceit.
Long time readers will not be surprised to learn that I find it difficult to see things from other people’s perspective and thus, consistent with the theory, I am a lousy liar!