Which European interventions have been the real problems?
Gayle Allard and the ever-interesting Peter Lindert write:
How have labor market institutions and welfare-state transfers affected
jobs and productivity in Western Europe, relative to industrialized
Pacific Rim countries? Orthodox criticisms of European government
institutions are right in some cases and wrong in others. Protectionist
labor-market policies such as employee protection laws seem to have
become more costly since about 1980, not through overall employment
effects, but through the net human-capital cost of protecting senior
male workers at the expense of women and youth. Product-market
regulations in core sectors may also have reduced GDP, though here the
evidence is less robust. By contrast, high general tax levels have shed
the negative influence they might have had in the 1960s and 1970s.
Similarly, other institutions closer to the core of the welfare state
have caused no net harm to European jobs and growth. The welfare
state’s tax-based social transfers and coordinated wage bargaining have
not harmed either employment or GDP. Even unemployment benefits do not
have robustly negative effects.
These are underexplored but not easy to explore questions; here is the paper.
I would feel better if Ireland were removed from the data set, since a booming economy can afford many sins. After this adjustment, coordinated bargaining wouldn’t look as good. And when we calculate average productivity, should not the unemployed count for "zero productivity," or even negative, in the appropriate measure? I believe that tax rates matter, but only at particular thresholds.
I also would like to argue the following: "Don’t think we can pick and choose the egalitarian interventions which turn up as the very best in econometric studies. We are unlikely to know in advance which policies are the least harmful and politics is even less likely to turn those proposals into legislation."
But would I be committing The Libertarian Vice?
Claims you all can laugh at
Some of the Irish claim to have invented a perpetual motion machine.
As a young child I read this was impossible, but frankly I’ve long been convinced of the contrary. The universe itself seemed like a counterexample. It goes and goes and goes and goes. Lots of stuff happens. Stars explode, galaxies crash, planets get downgraded, etc. Where does a vacuum get its energy from anyway? And isn’t the "cosmological constant" a big free push?
Now perhaps our universe is not truly "perpetual." Or perhaps it involves "no net expenditure of energy." I’ve heard it called "a free lunch," through some kind of quantum effect and subsequent inflation.
But still, the universe, as a perpetual motion machine, seems to me like a good enough version of what people have been looking for. (Imagine your venture capital pitch: "Well, it’s not as Big or as Important as The Universe, but it does operate according to the same physical laws…") The universe was produced by some process, and perhaps a smaller and more local version of the idea is possible. Or does it come only in one size? Well…I’d better stop before I make any more scientific blunders…
I can’t get over the idea there is a free lunch floating around out there. Perhaps I read too much Julian Simon in my formative years.
Addendum: Here are the seven warning signs of bogus science.
Around the web
1. Contra Jared Diamond, on Easter Island and environmental collapse.
2. Who Pays the Corporate Income Tax?
3. Why CDs sound bad, from Bob Dylan, whose new CD is out next Tuesday.
4. Game theory and gambling in Paraguay: borrowing a page from Thomas Schelling.
5. Japanese markets in everything.
Markets in everything, Mexican edition
Here is a nice, relaxing vacation idea for my wife:
The 20 or so people fleeing the Border Patrol aren’t undocumented immigrants – they’re tourists about 700 miles from the border. Most are well-heeled professionals more likely to travel to the United States in an airplane than on foot.
They’ve each paid 150 pesos – about $15 – for what is perhaps Mexico’s strangest tourist attraction: A night as an illegal immigrant crossing the Rio Grande.
Advertising for the mock journey, which takes place at a nature park in the central state of Hidalgo, tells the pretend immigrants to "Make fun of the Border Patrol!" and to "Cross the Border as an Extreme Sport!"
As craven as the advertising sounds, the organizers say they are trying to build empathy for migrants by putting people in their shoes.
Here is the full story. Here is an interesting recent article on sympathy.
Big box sets
Usually I resist buying Big Box Sets. I never did much with my 9-CD box of Stax music, for instance. The Mar-Keys are good but rarely my first choice in the morning. Otis Redding I already knew.
But surely nominal values should not matter (…tell that to those guys are arguing whether Pluto should be a "planet," a "pluton," or a mid-sized boulder.) Why is buying a Big Box Set different from buying a bunch of individual CDs over time?
There is a neuroeconomics critique of Big Box Sets. So much of the pleasure of a purchase lies in the anticipation of the buy rather than the having. The anticipatory pleasure of a Big Box Set, no matter how large, is not so much greater than the anticipatory pleasure from a single CD. Yet once you own a large box it sits around. You can’t listen to the CDs all at once. They start to feel "stale," and then you go out and want that anticipatory fix again. Bryan Caplan aside, the anticipatory pleasure of "listening to the seventh CD in the box" is somehow not the same. So you buy some more CDs. The Big Box Set sits dormant.
If it is a really big box, you can’t even look forward to the pleasure of "finishing it off," and consigning it to the basement where probably it belongs.
I have just bought Miles Davis’s 20-CD box "Live at Montreaux", used I might add. These CDs override all of the strictures against Big Box Sets.
This is fortunate because in my future lies the eight-CD Miles Davis Live at the Plugged Nickel and the 6-CD Miles Davis and Gil Evans.
The Music of Islam is another worthwhile 20-CD set. And I would like to buy a 20-CD box of Fela Kuti, if they put one out.
Here is my previous post How Quickly Should I Go Through My Stock of Battlestar Galactica?
The Female Brain
New mothers lose an average of seven hundred hours of sleep in the first year postpartum.
…In one study, mother rats were given the opportunity to press a bar and get a squirt of cocaine or press a bar and get a rat pup to suck their nipples…Those oxytocin squirts in the brain outscored a snort of cocaine every time.
Both are from the new and noteworthy The Female Brain, by Louann Brizendine. Here is a very brief (and somewhat skewed in the direction of politically correct) summary. Here is more. Here is a Deborah Tannen review.
There are way way way too many books on gender differences. Most of them just string together the usual well-known templates, but I read every page of this one with interest. The best parts focus on the role of hormones.
Not everyone will appreciate the punchy style — "There’s a new reality brewing in Sylvia’s brain, and it’s a take-no-prisoners view" — but everyone who wants to marry or have kids should read this book.
Pulled from the comments on Alex
The Bartels result may be just showing that in an economy when
average incomes are are rising rapidly, the low income groups benefit
more than the higher income groups. Since WWII, with the exception of
Eisenhower, no Republican was president when the average income was
rising rapidly.
Here is the link for a relevant graph. Here is a graph of the Bartels result. And here is Greg Mankiw on inequality and unions, in case you missed it, perhaps Greg’s best post so far.
The 20 best songs of the 1960s
Here is a list from Pitchfork; the Beach Boys’ "God Only Knows" takes first place. The selections are excellent (head to iTunes), but I would have opted for the Beatles’ "Rain" and the Byrds’ "Eight Miles High." You’ll find links to their top 200 picks as well.
Daniel Levitin’s This is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession — is a new book on how music affects our brains. Here is an introduction to the book.
Addendum: Here is an interview with Levitin.
Must-see photo sequence
If you’re not so smart, why are you so rich?
Andrew Samwick asked a very good question last week: if Paul Krugman says that rising wages at the top are due to nasty Republican policies and not due to rising returns to education/skill how does he explain his own high income? Unfortunately Mark Thoma interpreted Samwick to be saying that Krugman was hypocritical. That, however, was not the point at all.
The point is that Krugman is a very good example of someone in the top 1% of income – someone whose earnings have increased tremendously in the 1980s and 1990s thus generating much income inequality. Krugman wants to say that earnings in the top 1% have gone up because of a reduction in the minimum wage or fewer labor unions. Huh? Remember, it’s not just inequality that has increased it’s absolute earnings at the top – where are these earnings coming from?
The idea that reductions in the bottom generate big earnings at the top reminds me of the theory, once popular among theorists of development, that the way to get rich is to steal from poor people. At best what you can get from lower labor earnings at the bottom is a slightly higher return to capital in general – not a big return to a few people at the top.
Krugman says it’s Republican policies that are generating inequality Or does he? Let’s go to the tape. Here’s what Krugman had to say when it was revealed that Enron paid him $50,000 for a speaking engagement.
My critics seem to think that there was something odd about Enron’s
willingness to pay a mere college professor that much money. But such sums
are not unusual for academic economists whose expertise is relevant to
current events…Remember that this was 1999: Asia was in crisis, the world was a mess.
And justifiably or not, I was regarded as an authority on that mess. I
invented currency crises as an academic field, way back in 1979; anyone
who wants a sense of my academic credentials should look at the Handbook
of International Economics, vol. 3, and check the index….And I wasn’t an ivory-tower academic. In 1994 I had published an article… in August 1998 I had advocated temporary
capital controls …in 1998 I had taken on the Japanese
situation, with a series of papers…I mention all this not as a matter of self-puffery, but to point out
that I was not an unknown college professor. On the contrary, I was a hot
property, very much in demand as a speaker to business audiences: I was
routinely offered as much as $50,000 to speak to investment banks and consulting
firms. They thought I might tell them something useful. For what it’s worth,
Citibank officials said – you can check it out with a Nexis search – that
a heads-up I gave them in 1996 about the risks of an Asian currency crisis
saved them hundreds of millions of dollars.
Now all this is amusing but that’s not my point (really, it’s just a side-benefit.) My point is that Krugman’s earlier explanation for his high income was all about the rising return to education ("Look at all my papers!") I would supplement this basic story with a greater winner-take-all market, more economies of scope etc. (See also Tyler’s comments.)
I think Krugman’s earlier explanation for his own income is mostly correct. Where Krugman and I apparently disagree is that I think that the very same explanation Krugman gives for his income also explains why other people in the top 1% are earning more. Krugman, however, no longer wants to talk about education and skill he wants to talk about nasty Republicans.
So let me rephrase Samwick’s question. Paul, If you’re not so smart, why are you so rich?
10 Things You Shouldn’t Buy New
A MSN.com article lists the following:
1. Books
2. DVDs and CDs
3. Little kids’ toys
4. Jewelry (TC: Uh-Oh)
5. Sports equipment
6. Cars
7. Software and console games
8. Office furniture
9. Timeshares
10. Handtools
I agree except for numbers four and six, but on four I wish I could agree. The common feature of the argument seems to be that we can do without "the gloss of the new" by a mere act of will.
But don’t buy helmets, laptops, wet suits, or vacuum cleaners used, they often have hidden damage. They forgot to list underwear.
Addendum: As long as we are on the topic of "ten," here is Guy Kawasaki’s "Ten Things They Should Teach You in School," recommended.
The best sentence I read today
On average, taller people earn more because they are smarter.
Assorted
1. On inequality, Krugman responds to critics and Samwick adds further commentary. I’ll note that the "marginal products" of big changes in government, society, technology, etc. are not always well-defined.
2. Tower Records is bankrupt again, and this time the stores may not survive.
3. In case you missed it, there is now very strong evidence for the existence of "dark matter."
4. The genetic causes of autism — do they lead to early brain inflammation? Have I mentioned that my mother was instrumental in founding and running a care home for autistic children? Among other things, I use this blog to send her the latest news on the topic.
5. Seven puzzles: find them here, with solutions, and one of them is explained by GeekPress.
6. Virginia Postrel in Forbes, on why median incomes are not stagnating, here is a summary and a link.
Status competition, rural Indian style
In rural Hindu villages in India…widows are expected
to be perpetual mourners, austere in their habits, appetites and dress;
even so, they often jockey for position, said Richard A. Shweder, an
anthropologist in the department of comparative human development at
the University of Chicago.“Many
compete for who is most pure,” Dr. Shweder said. “They say, ‘I don’t
eat fish, I don’t eat eggs, I don’t even walk into someone’s house who
has eaten meat.’ It’s a natural kind of social comparison.”
The article focuses on the psychology of fame-seeking.
Why do libertarians love science fiction?
The ever-so-loyal Jessica Pickett asks:
A few of your posts – taken together with other econobloggers – would seem to suggest a correlation between being a libertarian economist and being a die-hard sci-fi/fantasy geek. Does your experience support this anecdotal observation, and if so, can you elaborate on the possible causation?
I see the connection, and I can think of a few possible answers:
1. The rude: Because both groups live in a fantasy world. But even if that is true, many other ideologues live in a fantasy world but fail to have the same attachment to science fiction.
2. The trivial: Both loves are correlated with "young upper middle class nerdy white male," but otherwise the connection has no significance.
3. The proud: Libertarian economists like to imagine how things otherwise might be. This spills over into a love for science fiction.
4. The Freudian: Libertarians feel an infantile need to rearrange the pieces of the moral universe, due to thwarted childhood desires and ongoing sexual frustrations.
5. The sociological: Character development is notoriously weak in science fiction and libertarians are prone to see societies in terms of abstract laws rather than very definite individual human beings.
5. Denial or minimization of the fact: I doubt if the connection holds outside the USA. Plus bloggers are a very, um… "select" sample. Is Milton Friedman out there reading The King of Elfland’s Daughter? Much recommended, by the way.
My question: If you discover that your personality can be explained by a smaller rather than a larger number of dimensions, should this make you happy or sad? More or less trusting of your intuitions?