Virtue signaling on Twitter
We study whether tweets about racial justice predict the offline behaviors of nearly 20,000 US academics. In an audit study, academics that tweet about racial justice discriminate more in favor of minority students than academics that do not tweet about racial justice. Racial justice tweets are more predictive of race-related political tweets than political contributions, suggesting that visibility increases informativeness. In contrast, the informativeness of tweets is lower during periods of high social pressure to tweet about racial justice. Finally, most graduate students mispredict informativeness, more often underestimating than overestimating, reducing the welfare benefits of social media.
Here is the paper by Deivis Angeli, Matt Lowe, and The Village Team.
Saturday assorted links
Free Formatting For All on First Submission!
Many years ago I was incredulous when my wife told me she had to format a paper to meet a journal’s guidelines before it was accepted! Who could favor such a dumb policy? In economics, the rule is you make your paper look good but you don’t have to fulfill all the journal’s guidelines until after the paper is accepted. Sensible!
A paper just published in BMC Medicine estimates that this obtrusive norm costs researchers in biomedical journals alone some $230 million a year in wasted time. That’s consistent with an earlier study which estimated that over a billion dollars worth of time was wasted reformatting papers in all scientific fields. Quoting from that earlier study:
Our data show that nearly 91% of authors spend greater than four hours and 65% spend over eight hours on reformatting adjustments before publication…Among the time-consuming processes involved are adjusting manuscript structure (e.g. altering abstract formats), changing figure formats, and complying with word counts that vary significantly depending on the journal. Beyond revising the manuscript itself, authors often have to adjust to specific journal and publisher online requirements (such as re-inputting data for all authors’ email, office addresses, and disclosures). Most authors reported spending “a great deal” of time on this reformatting task. Reformatting for these types of requirements reportedly caused three month or more delay in the publication of nearly one fifth of articles and one to three month delays for over a third of articles.
It’s all very depressing. If we can’t get rid of unproductive paper reformatting standards–which benefit no one–how can we expect to tackle monumental tasks that require navigating complex tradeoffs such as resolving global climate change or making the tax code more just and efficient?
Yet perhaps there is hope. The BMC Medicine paper was covered in Nature and the authors have started a petition to change the reformatting norm. Do your part. Sign the petition! Free formatting for all on first submission!
Kenya facts of the day
The total fertility rate for 2019 was 3.4 births which marks a drop of about one birth from 4.8 births in 2009.
But here is the more interesting part:
The gap between the highest and lowest TFR continues to increase – which is lowest at 2.5 children in Nairobi and 8 children per woman in Mandera County.
Here is the full story. Here is Wikipedia on Mandera County. Here is another story: “The risk of dying in childbirth in Mandera, Kenya’s forgotten north-eastern region, is higher than anywhere else in the world.”
Why mediocre gdp growth and a strong labor market?
That is the topic of my latest Blooomberg column. This exercise is speculative, but here is my tentative resolution:
Workers have been undergoing a serious crisis of morale since the pandemic — and they really are doing less. So businesses, in turn, have to hire more of them just to keep pace.
Does this hypothesis fit with these economic signals? With inflation still in the range of 5%, slow economic growth cannot be due to insufficient aggregate demand. More likely, it is due to supply-side and productivity considerations. The biggest natural disaster of the last half decade has been Covid, which damages not capital but labor — whether workers’ health or their morale…
Could part of the explanation be the broader adoption of the work-from-home option? I know there are studies that say WFH increases productivity, but even the author of one of the more widely cited papers says that more research is necessary and that a lot depends on how well the arrangement is organized. Meanwhile, America is experiencing a mental health crisis, arguably made worse by both Covid stress and the accompanying lockdowns.
The productivity question is even more puzzling. If worker productivity is low, why keep on hiring? The key may be to look not at total productivity, but at productivity per hour — and not per reported hour, but per hour actually worked.
I concede that there exists no measure of productivity per hour actually worked. (The official number, which is not doing great either, measures productivity per reported hour.) But if the average office worker only puts in say two to three hours a day — and it is not implausible — then there is a lot of slack in the worker’s day, especially if they are WFH.
So consider this thought experiment as a possible explanation: You are a manager and have noticed that new hires tend to be more enthusiastic and hard-working than current employees. Under this theory — and that’s all it is — you decide to hire more contract workers for well-defined, short-run tasks. Meanwhile, you redouble your efforts to bring workers back into the office.
Viewed through an economic lens, it is puzzling why there aren’t more gains from trade. That is, workers agree to put in more effort, and employers agree to pay them more. That is a trend which should be expected — but WFH makes monitoring difficult.
Note this same pattern of mediocre output growth and labor scarcity is evident in many other economies, including Germany and Czechia, as discussed in the column.
The nuclear polity that is Georgia
The first new nuclear reactor built in the United States in more than 40 years is now up and running in Waynesboro, Georgia. After more than a decade of construction and spiraling costs, Plant Vogtle Unit Three, the first of two new reactors at the site, started producing power at its full capacity in May. It’s expected to come online this month after a final round of tests.
The completion of the new reactors is a major milestone not just for the long-delayed project but for nuclear energy in the United States. The new units at Plant Vogtle were the first nuclear construction approved in decades and are the country’s only new reactors in progress.
Here is the full story. Better than nothing, but not entirely encouraging either. Elsewhere, transmission builds (non-nuclear) are declining…
Friday assorted links
1. Davis Kedrosky defends Jared Diamond, a good piece.
2. Is “war-related” a “factor” in financial market returns?
3. Global inequality in well-being has decreased along many dimensions.
4. Overview of the new ARPA-H.
5. “WWSS?” Or, “What would Singapore say?” You don’t have to agree, but the question is usually worth asking. Here is Singapore on LLMs. And if you don’t already know it — I covered it years ago — here is one of my favorite videos, namely Singapore Complaints Choir.
Economics, Hayek, and Large Language Models
Here is my Hayek lecture at LSE, from earlier in this week:
Emergent Ventures winners, 26th cohort
Winston Iskandar, 16, Manhattan Beach, CA, an app for children’s literacy and general career development. Winston also has had his piano debut at Carnegie Hall.
ComplyAI, Dheekshita Kumar and Neha Gaonkar, Chicago and NYC, to build an AI service to speed the process of permit application at local and state governments.
Avi Schiffman and InternetActivism, “leading the digital front of humanitarianism.” Avi is a repeat winner.
Jarett Cameron Dewbury, Ontario, and Cambridge MA, General career support, AI and biomedicine, including for the study of environmental enteric dysfunction. Here is his Twitter.
Ian Cheshire, Wallingford, Pennsylvania, high school sophomore, general career support, tech, start-ups, and also income-sharing agreements.
Beyzamur Arican Dinc, psychology Ph.D student at UCSB, regulation of emotional dyads in relationships and marriages, from Istanbul.
Ariana Pineda, Evanston, Illinois, Northwestern. To attend a biology conference in Prospera, Honduras.
Satvik Agnihotri, high school, NYC area, to visit the Bay Area for a summer, study logistics, and general career development.
Michael Loftus, Ann Arbor, for a neuro tech hacker house, connected to Myelin Group.
Keir Bradwell, Cambridge, UK, Political Thought and Intellectual History Masters student, to visit the U.S. to study Mancur Olson and Judith Shklar, and also to visit GMU.
Vaneeza Moosa, Ontario, incoming at University of Calgary, “Developing new therapies for malignant pleural mesothelioma using epigenetic regulators to enhance tumor growth and anti-tumor immunity with radiation therapy.”
Ashley Mehra, Yale Law School, background in classics, general career development and for eventual start-up plans.
An important project not yet ready to be announced, United Kingdom.
Jennifer Tsai, Waterloo, Ontario and Geneva (temporarily), molecular and computational neuroscience, to study in Gregoire Courtine’s lab.
Asher Parker Sartori, Belmont, Massachusetts, working with Nina Khera (previous EV winner), summer meet-up/conference for young bio people in Hanover, New Hampshire.
Nima Pourjafar, 17, starting this fall at Waterloo, Ontario. For general career development, interested in apps, programming, economics, solutions to social problems.
Karina, 17, sophomore in high school, neuroscience, optics, and light, Bellevue, Washington.
Sana Raisfirooz, Ontario, to study bioelectronics at Berkeley.
James Hill-Khurana (left off an earlier 2022 list by mistake), Waterloo, Ontario, “A new development environment for digital (chip) design, and accompanying machine learning models.”
Ukraine winners
Tetiana Shafran, Kyiv, piano, try this video or here are more. I was very impressed.
Volodymyr Lapin, London, Ukraine, general career development in venture capital for Ukraine.
The illusion of moral decline
From a new Nature article by Adam M. Mastroianni and Daniel T. Gilbert:
Anecdotal evidence indicates that people believe that morality is declining. In a series of studies using both archival and original data (n = 12,492,983), we show that people in at least 60 nations around the world believe that morality is declining, that they have believed this for at least 70 years and that they attribute this decline both to the decreasing morality of individuals as they age and to the decreasing morality of successive generations. Next, we show that people’s reports of the morality of their contemporaries have not declined over time, suggesting that the perception of moral decline is an illusion. Finally, we show how a simple mechanism based on two well-established psychological phenomena (biased exposure to information and biased memory for information) can produce an illusion of moral decline, and we report studies that confirm two of its predictions about the circumstances under which the perception of moral decline is attenuated, eliminated or reversed (that is, when respondents are asked about the morality of people they know well or people who lived before the respondent was born). Together, our studies show that the perception of moral decline is pervasive, perdurable, unfounded and easily produced. This illusion has implications for research on the misallocation of scarce resources, the underuse of social support, and social influence.
Here is the full paper, thanks to whomever sent me this. You are no worse than the people who used to send me things (at least I hope).
Thursday assorted links
Air Pollution Redux
New York City today has the worst air quality in the world, so now seems like a good time for a quick redux on air pollution. Essentially, everything we have learned in the last couple of decades points to the conclusion that air pollution is worse than we thought. Air pollution increases cancer and heart disease and those are just the more obvious effects. We now also now know that it reduces IQ and impedes physical and cognitive performance on a wide variety of tasks. Air pollution is especially bad for infants, who may have life-long impacts as well as the young and the elderly. I’m not especially worried about the wildfires but the orange skies ought to make the costs of pollution more salient. As Tyler noted, one reason air pollution doesn’t get the attention that it deserves is that it’s invisible and the costs are cumulative:
Air pollution causes many deaths. But it is rare to see or read about a person dying directly from air pollution. Lung cancer and cardiac disease are frequently cited as causes of death, even though they may stem from air pollution.
That’s the bad news. The good news, hidden inside the bad news, is that the costs of air pollution on productivity are so high that there are plausible ways of reducing some air pollution and increasing health and wealth, especially in high pollution countries but likely also in the United States with well-targeted policies.
For evidence on the above, you can see some of the posts below. Tyler and I have been posting about air pollution for a long time. Tyler first said air pollution was an underrated problem in 2005 and it was still underrated in 2021!
- Why the New Pollution Literature is Credible
- Air Pollution Reduces IQ, A Lot
- Air Pollution Kills
- David Wallace-Wells with a good overview.
- A good overview of the non-health impacts of pollution.
The price discrimination culture that is Finland
A businessman in Finland has been slapped with a hefty €121,000, or $129,400, fine for speeding in a country where tickets are calculated based on income, a local paper Nya Åland reported.
Anders Wiklöf, the chairman of Wiklöf Holding AB, was driving at 82km/h, or 51mph, when he entered a zone where the speed limit was 50km/h, or 31mph, per Nya Åland.
“I had just started to slow down, but I guess it didn’t happen fast enough,” Wiklöf told Nya Åland. “I really regret the matter.”
In Finland, speeding fines are linked to the offender’s salary and the speed at which they were going when they committed the offense.
Here is the full story. Via Anecdotal.
My excellent Conversation with Peter Singer
Here is the video, audio, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:
Peter joined Tyler to discuss whether utilitarianism is only tractable at the margin, how Peter thinks about the meat-eater problem, why he might side with aliens over humans, at what margins he would police nature, the utilitarian approach to secularism and abortion, what he’s learned producing the Journal of Controversial Ideas, what he’d change about the current Effective Altruism movement, where Derek Parfit went wrong, to what extent we should respect the wishes of the dead, why professional philosophy is so boring, his advice on how to enjoy our lives, what he’ll be doing after retiring from teaching, and more.
Peter described it as “like aerobics for the brain.” Here is one excerpt:
COWEN: How much should we spend trying to thwart predators?
SINGER: I think that’s difficult because, again, you would have to take into account the consequences of not having predators, and what are you going to do with a prey population? Are they going to overpopulate and maybe starve or destroy the environment for other sentient beings? So, it’s hard to say how much we should spend trying to thwart them.
I think there are questions about reducing the suffering of wild animals that are easier than that. That’s a question that maybe, at some stage, we’ll grapple with when we’ve reduced the amount of suffering we inflict on animals generally. It’s nowhere near the top of the list for how to reduce animal suffering.
COWEN: What do you think of the fairly common fear that if we mix the moralities of human beings and the moralities of nature, that the moralities of nature will win out? Nature is so large and numerous and populous and fierce. Human beings are relatively small in number and fragile. If the prevailing ethic becomes the ethic of nature, that the blending is itself dangerous, that human beings end up thinking, “Well, predation is just fine; it’s the way of nature.” Therefore, they do terrible things to each other.
SINGER: Is that what you meant by the moralities of nature? I wasn’t sure what the phrase meant. Do you mean the morality that we imply, that we attribute to nature?
COWEN: “Red in tooth and claw.” If we think that’s a matter that is our business, do we not end up with that morality? Trumping ours, we become subordinate to that morality. A lot of very nasty people in history have actually cited nature. “Well, nature works this way. I’m just doing that. It’s a part of nature. It’s more or less okay.” How do we avoid those series of moves?
SINGER: Right. It’s a bad argument, and we try and explain why it’s a bad argument, that we don’t want to follow nature. That the fact that nature does something is not something that we ought to imitate, but maybe, in fact, we ought to combat, and of course, we do combat nature in many ways. Maybe war between humans is part of nature, but nevertheless, we regret when wars break out. We try to have institutions to prevent wars breaking out. I think a lot of our activities are combating nature’s way of doing things rather than regarding it as a model to follow.
COWEN: But if humans are a part of nature flat out, and if our optimal policing of nature leaves 99.9999 percent of all predation in place — we just can’t stop most of it — is it then so irrational to conclude, “Well this predation must be okay. It’s the natural state of the world. Our optimal best outcome leaves 99.99999 percent of it in place.” How do we avoid that mindset?
Recommended. And the new edition (much revised) of Peter’s Animal Liberation is now out.
My new iPad Pro
I am very glad I bought one of these, and not only because my older iPad started to lose charge too quickly (after many years). The new device has for me three special and somewhat idiosyncratic benefits:
1. I don’t type very well on smaller devices such as smartphones.
2. On a very small screen, such as an iPhone, I am not able to read quickly. On the larger iPad screen, my normal comparative advantage in reading speed is restored, with point #3 mattering too.
3. When in a cab, Uber, or on a train (I don’t ride on subways unless I have to), it props up remarkably easy, rather than the older iPad, which I had to hold up. That boosts my reading and also typing speed, and comfort, considerably. This is the one factor I had not considered as important when buying one.
Of course you might have other reasons for liking it too, but the “smart pencil” doesn’t interest me much.