Buy a House, Get a Visa (2)

The buy a house, get a visa program which I have been pushing for some time is getting some serious play.  Writing in the WSJ, Richard Lefrak and Gary Shilling note:

The blueprint for a program to sell surplus housing to immigrants is already in place with the EB-5 visa program. Each year, 10,000 EB-5 visas for this country are available for foreigners who each invest $1 million in a new enterprise ($500,000 in economically depressed areas) that creates at least 10 full-time jobs. After two years, the entrepreneur and his family can become permanent residents.

Why not reduce the investment required and expand the program to 100,000?  

Barry Ritholz John Mauldin has further thoughts and links.  Thanks to Jim Ward for the pointer.

Investment Books

Loyal reader Kenneth MacDonald writes to ask for advice on investment books.  I’m a fan of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, but the bottom line there is pretty simple–diversify, buy and hold, and avoid high fees.  Ken is looking for “a more focused book on how to research stocks,” something that explains P/E ratios and other fundamentals that can be used to look for value.  So to answer Ken I turned to two more knowledgeable investors:

Felix Salmon is also more of an index fund guy but for those willing to bear the risks he recommends the classics:

Bartley J. Madden has a wealth of experience in investing and is unusually analytical.  He developed the cash-flow-return-on-investment valuation model which is widely used around the world today.  His recommendations are:

  • Equity Valuation edited by Viebig (“…an excellent overview of valuation models used by institutional
    investors.  The section written by David Holland and Tom Larsen is a
    particularly useful and up-to-date technical explanation of the CFROI
    model.”)
  • Driven: Business Strategy, Human Actions and the Creation of Wealth by Litman and Frigo (“…a very good job of linking business strategy to long-term levels and changes in stock prices.)

For an advanced treatment of the CFROI model I’d also recommend Bart’s own book Maximizing
Shareholder Value And The Greater Good
(free download here).  Readers?

What is Russia’s GDP per capita?

Andrew Gelman has a simple question, What is Russia's GDP per capita?  Fortunately this information is easy to find on the web.  As Gelman reports, the answer is:

  1. $7,600 (World Bank 2007)
  2. $9,100 (World Bank 2007)
  3. $14,700 (PPP adjusted, World Bank 2007)
  4. $4,500 (World Bank 2006)
  5. $7600 or $14,400 (gross national income: "Atlas method" or "purchasing power parity," World Bank 2007)
  6. $12,600 (IMF 2008), $9,100 (World Bank 2007), or $12,500 (CIA 2008)
  7. $2,637 in 2000 US dollars (World Bank 2007); that's $3,200 in 2007 dollars
  8. $2,621 (World Bank 2006) or $8,600 (IMF)

Here are three lectures if you want to understand why this is a harder question than it appears!

Patents versus Markets

Long ago Jack Hirshleifer pointed out that markets can reward innovative activity even in the absence of patents (H.'s point was actually that markets could over-reward such activity but the point was clear).  If an inventor discovers a new source of energy that requires the use of palladium, for example, he can buy palladium futures, announce his discovery and wait for the price of palladium to increase.  Of course, this only works if the discovery is credible so betting (contra Tyler) is an important way to test the credibility of a theory (e.g. here and here and of course Hanson's key paper Could Gambling Save Science).

All this is by way of introduction to a new paper in Science, Promoting Intellectual Discovery: Patents Versus Markets (press release here).  Bossaerts et al. compare a patent system with a market reward system in an interesting experimental setting.  The innovation is the solution to a combinatorial problem called the knapsack problem.  In the knapsack problem there are Z items each with a certain value.  You must choose which items to put into the knapsack in order to maximize it's value but each item also has a weight and you cannot go over a fixed weight which is set such that you can't carry all the items.  The solution to a knapsack problem is not obvious since it's not always best to include the most valuable items.  The authors argue that solving the knapsack problem is like combining ideas to create a new innovation.  The authors, of course, know the optimal solution to each knapsack problem.

Rewards for creating the innovation are offered in two ways, in the patent method the first person to produce the optimal solution gets the entire reward.  In the market system each participant is initially given an equal number of shares in each item.  The item-shares trade on a market. After the markets close a $1 dividend is paid to each item-share if the item is in the optimal solution, other shares expire worthless.  Thus, the price of the item-shares can be thought of as the probability that the item is in the optimal solution.  (i.e. is palladium in the optimal solution to the energy problem?  If so, it will have a high price.)  Dividends are set such that the total reward is about the same in the two treatments.  Proposed solutions were also collected in the market setting although the solutions per se were not the basis of any reward.

Important findings are that the problem was solved just as often in the market setting as in the patent setting.  Indeed, in the market setting more people solved the problem on average.  There are two possible explanations.  First, the winner-take-all nature of the patent system may have deterred some of the weaker participants from exerting effort.  Second, and more interesting, is that the prices in the market system did in fact incorporate information about the optimal solution – thus market prices may have given people hints about the optimal solution, much like seeing a partial solution to a jigsaw puzzle.

Problems are that the market system can work only if there are rents to be had from market prices.  A new computer chip design, for example, won't change the price of silicon (although even here side-bets may be possible, the inventor knows the manufacturer to whom he sells the invention for example).  Also, the price of an input, like palladium, can be influenced by many things other than the innovation so the market system will typically often involve more risk.  Still this is an interesting experimental approach to a deep problem.

Thanks to Monique van Hoek for the pointer.

Three TED Talks

My TED talk isn't up yet but three of my favorites are:

  • Pattie Maes from MIT demonstrated some very cool technology.  Check it out – you will want it. 
  • Eric Lewis knows how to pound the piano – he is going to be big.      
  • Aimee Mullins gave a good talk.  Not super-exciting per se but notable in so clearly marking the point at which post-humanity has begun.  (Note how misdirected her heartfelt conclusion is.)

Assorted Links

  • Everything you want to know about smart grids from the very smart Lynne Kiesling.
  • "In the hubbub surrounding President Obama’s
    decision to cap salaries of commercial-bank CEOs at $500,000 (if they
    receive future federal funds), the salaries of college and university
    presidents have been flying under the radar."  Clarence Deitsch and Norman Van Cott look at the President's club.

Counter-cyclical asset: Safes

Here is the anecdote:

…sellers of safes said that business was up as customers confront new fears, be they losing money in failing banks or being robbed by desperate fellow New Yorkers. …”We’ve had customers come in who are putting half a million to a million dollars in cash in a safe in their home,” said Richard Krasilovsky, 58, of Empire Safe in Midtown…

and here is the data.  (Paul Krugman pointed out this data in a very good talk (slides) he gave at a symposium in CA on Friday (Larry Ball and myself also spoke).)

Cash

Fiscal Policy Using the Quantity Theory

Much of the debate over fiscal policy has occurred in Keynesian terms but its worth pointing out that it's perfectly reasonable to discuss fiscal policy in a monetarist framework.  Start with the quantity theory of money MV=PY, money times velocity equals prices times real output.

In the long run we know that real GDP is pinned down by real factors (labor, capital, technology, institutions and so forth) so increases in M will increase P proportionally.  But in the short run there are plenty of reasons to think that increases in M can increase Y – this is accepted by monetarists, Austrians, rational expectation theorists (ala Lucas) for unexpected changes in money, Keynesians and new Keynesians (only originalist RBC type theorists would object.)  But M and V enter the equation in an identical fashion and thus logically must have the same effects for the same change.  Thus if you think money is potent then V must be potent as well and V is fiscal policy.

To be precise, V is how fast money turns over and we can think about shocks to V as spending shocks.  Spending shocks can be driven by consumers or by the government – this is what Brad DeLong means when he says "the government, in this respect, is just like any other group of starry-eyed optimists whose eagerness to spend pulls the economy into a high-employment, high-pressure boom."

One way of understanding the current recession is that V has fallen by a lot and it is dragging down Y (just as would a sharp fall in M).  We can counter with an increase in M (monetary policy) or by an increase in V (fiscal policy).

Now we might think that V driven by government is too slow or too wasteful (ala Kevin Murphy (pdf)) to work well or we might think that neither increases in V nor increases in M would be as effective as Keynesians imagine since there is also reverse causality (falls in Y and expectations of slower growth in Y are reducing M and V).  We could pursue the last point to its fullest and abandon the quantity theory altogether (making V an endogenous function of Y, for example, and removing it as an independent variable).  But if we hew to the basic ideas of the quantity theory–and remember, it's not a true model only a way of looking at the world!–then fiscal policy is not impossible.

Comparing Recessions 4

GDP was down at a 6.2% annualized rate in the last quarter of 2008 (revised figure).  Earlier I criticized the Minneapolis Fed for a peculiar way of presenting data comparing recessions.  I've been impressed, however, with how they have responded since I (and others) raised this issue.  First, they quickly clarified what they were doing.  Second, today they have added a very nice javascript which lets you compare output and employment during this recession to as many others as you like with a few clicks.  Check it out.