Assorted
1. How long could you survive in outer space? Longer than I had thought.
2. What is driving European demographics?
4. Markets in everything, Britney Spears edition, it is an analysis of Antigone. Really.
5. Kiwi leader (and quasi-libertarian) Donald Brash resigns, amid tales of a secret Christian sect.
New look at the Lancet study of Iraqi deaths
I am on my way to Charlotte, and sadly do not have time to read what appears to be a serious look at the Lancet study. The links are here. I find this link, on urban homicide, especially interesting, although not for reasons related to Iraq. Here are interesting comparisons between Iraq and Colombia.
Department of Why Not?
This reminds me of one of my favorite books, encountered during research for Last Best Gifts: Ed Brassard’s Body For Sale: An Inside Look At Medical Research, Drug Testing, And Organ Transplants And How You Can Profit From Them.
This is a how-to guide for selling the renewable and non-renewable bits
of yourself and also for getting accepted into paying clinical trials
of all kinds.
Should we discount the future for radical uncertainty?
A few points:
1. Whatever the chance that the future (or rather our role in it) simply won’t exist, that should be discounted directly by the relevant probability of extinction. That said, while I do worry about asteroids, I take this probability to be relatively small over the next five hundred years.
2. Our uncertainty about the future is good reason for performing an expected value calculation, but it does not provide additional reason for time discounting. It will shape the p’s that go into the expected value calculation.
3. Austrians and Knightians may believe that our uncertainty about the future is deeply radical and that the entire expected value calculation is meaningless.
I am closer to a Bayesian myself. But even if we take the Knightian view at face value, it does not diminish the importance of the future. Whether or not we call expected value calculations "scientific" or "stupid," we still need to make choices about the future. A woman might think "I simply can’t imagine what sort of man I might marry." He might even be some hitherto unimagined extraterrestrial being. But her parents should still set aside some money for the possible ceremony.
To make the uncertainty stronger and more general, perhaps the parents think "We have *no* idea what will happen with our daughter, marriage or not. Perhaps she will sell kitchen equipment, perhaps she will be turned into a sweet potato." In any case there is no general reason for the parents to think they should save less rather than more. The potential outcome might require a very large expenditure on their part.
Some of my technically inclined readers are already thinking about the
third derivative of the utility function and the precautionary motive
for saving. The intuition is this: if the effect of your savings is very uncertain, you might either eschew savings altogether ("who knows what it will bring?"), or you might feel a need to save all the more. The third derivative will determine which is the correct decision, and this is not a matter of the discount rate per se.
4. The party analogy: Let’s say you have no idea who will show up at the party (or what the future will look like). How can you buy the food until you know whether the guests are Hindu, Muslim, or whatever. Fair enough, perhaps we should wait. But given the uncertainty, we might want to set aside more savings for future contingencies, and not spend all the money today.
Let’s consider this "third derivative" business in a little more detail. When does radical uncertainty justifiably mean the future should be ignored? A Christian might believe that he should not save up for Rapture. Perhaps Rapture, once it comes, will be so different and so unexpected in its nature that current precautions simply were not worth making. Odds are your mutual fund won’t make it into heaven (or hell?). Fair enough.
Alternatively, let’s say you are worried about an avian flu pandemic, but you don’t have a good idea what such a pandemic would look like. You probably still should buy more bottled water, not less, and pickle more kimchee, not less.
The practically-minded can debate which of these two cases more closely resembles global warming.
Charlotte bleg
Where should I eat dinner in Charlotte tomorrow night? Barbecue would be ideal, but I have read from Bob Garner that Charlotte is too modern to be a first-class barbecue town. I would settle for dumpy Mexican, or for that matter plain, simple good food. Help! Comments of course are open…
Assorted links
1. The new free trade environment, here.
2. Stephen Bainbridge returns with three new blogs.
3. Evidence for the Cowen thesis on attractive women?
4. In a drawn position, Kramnik overlooks mate in one; this is perhaps the most remarkable chess blunder of all time.
The most interesting sentence I read today (so far)
We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals.
In my warped view of the world, everyone believes in some form of meritocracy or another; the kind of meritocracy you believe in shapes most of the rest of your political views. Here is the paper. Here are non-gated versions.
MarginalRevolution on Facebook
It is now a group with seven members — "Marginal Revolution = Steroids for the Brain" — maybe you can get through this link. I’ll try to join myself, if I can figure out how…
Can foreign aid work?
Jeff Sachs gives a one-page argument for "yes."
I lean toward a more disaggregated approach, in which the success of aid is not just a matter of political will. The question is when and where aid will work. From another direction, this is an insightful paper:
Incumbent political leaders risk being deposed by challengers within existing political rules and by revolutionary threats. I examine how the survival incentives created by these dual threats shape the e¤ects of aid on government policy. I use Bueno de Mesquita et al’s (2003) selectorate politics theory to examine the relationship between winning coalition size — the number of supporters a leader requires to retain office — and policy choice. In large winning coalition systems, the public goods focus of public policy means that foreign aid improves societal welfare and economic development. In contrast, in small coalition systems the private rewards focus of policy induces a loyalty norm towards incumbents which enables leaders to skim off aid resources for themselves and their cronies. Further since in small coalition systems aid generates few of the societal benefits that it would under large coalition institutions, aid increases the desire of citizens to rebel. Leaders can respond to such revolutionary threats by either buying off potential rebels by increasing the supply of public goods or retarding their ability to organize by suppressing public goods. Aid increases the relative attractiveness of the latter option because aid provides governments with "unearned" revenues that are relatively isolated from the economic decline induced by the suppression of public goods. The model also implies that aid can retard democratization.
I read that and I thought "today I learned something." Both pointers are from www.politicaltheory.info.
Addendum: Here is more Sachs, via Mankiw.
Markets in everything
Polonium, no license required, as far as I can tell this site is real. Only $69, just click on "Add to Cart."
Here are the legitimate uses of polonium. Here is a less than legitimate use.
Thanks to Natasha for the pointer; she pursued some leads from Russian web sites.
Should old people move to Panama?
Panama has started a bidding war for retirees:
To attract more investment, the central American nation has eased
immigration laws and set up a discount bonanza for expatriate
pensioners that includes 20 percent off professional services such as
those provided by lawyers, architects and physical therapists; no
property tax for 20 years; no income tax on income earned outside
Panama; and a 50 percent discount on real estate closing costs.And
that’s only the beginning. The list of discounts goes on and on,
including price breaks on telephone service, surgery and domestic
airfares and a one-time waiver of duties on imported household goods up
to $10,000.All it takes to qualify is pension income of $500 or more per month — at any age and from any source.
Here is the story.
I can think of four relevant models here. 1. The Panamanian government is simply stupid. 2. In Panama most prices are well above marginal cost, making this a good deal for the nation as a whole. 3. The Panamanian government has a preference for sources of wealth which will not get involved in politics. 4. The Panamanian government believes that the greater number of residents will result in a more efficient spreading of fixed costs. I put my money on #2 and #3, and do visit Panama if you have never been; it is far more interesting than the now overtouristed Costa Rica.
Kramnik vs. the computer
The match started today, six games, here is a good overview article. Kramnik gets a million dollars if he wins, $500,000 otherwise.
Here are the rather complicated match rules; Kramnik has unparalleled access to the opening book and workings of the machine. Here are numerous expert opinions, many favor Kramnik. Sorry guys, but I predict one computer victory and the rest draws. Here is commentary by Kramnik. You can watch the games live here.
One commentator put it well: "The last match was drawn – against a weaker version of Fritz on lesser
hardware. And there’s no reason to think that since that match, Kramnik
has learnt to calculate an extra 6 billion positions per second."
But so far, in game one, the outcome was a draw and Kramnik had a slight edge throughout…
Addendum: Kramnik missed a win.
Implications of a zero discount rate
From the comments, Jane Galt asks:
…doesn’t a zero discount rate imply that even something that imposes trivial costs on each future generation should be avoided at catastrophic cost to us?
I would pose the question more broadly. If a policy imposes a great cost on one person, but involves many small benefits for others, should we always evaluate that policy by summing the respective costs and benefits and finding the net value?
The same question can be posed in both intertemporal and atemporal contexts. Philosopher Alastair Norcross made his name by considering Parfit-like conundrums. Let one person die a terrible and tortured death, but alleviate the headaches of billions of others by one second. (No, by its construction, this is not an exercise in risk reduction or Rawlsian reasoning. It is just a brute comparison of certain costs and benefits.) If the billions are large enough in number, is this worth it? Or does the suffering of the lone individual hold special status?
If we are willing to swallow this trade-off, we can accept it in the intergenerational comparison as well. I would myself balk at the notion, citing a mushy mish-mash of philosophic pluralism, quasi-lexical values, and the conceit of my moral intuitions. My conclusion is that we should modify cost-benefit analysis for (among other things) distributional concerns, but that the cost-benefit analysis should itself be done straight up. In any case, a non-zero discount rate, applied to consumption streams, would not do justice to the relevant moral intuitions about distribution. We might wish to count the wealthy for less, but not everyone in the future will be so wealthy, especially when China, India, and Bangladesh matter for the issue at hand.
Addendum: Here is commentary from Jonathan Adler.
Tim Harford on long-distance relationships
In today’s FT:
Economist Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University, has
pointed out that the Alchian-Allen theorem applies to any long-distance
relationship.
The theorem, briefly, implies that
Australians drink higher-quality Californian wine than Californians,
and vice-versa, because it is only worth the transportation costs for
the most expensive wine. Similarly, there is no point in travelling to
see your boyfriend for a take-away Indian meal and an evening in front
of the telly. To justify the trip’s fixed costs, you will require
champagne, sparkling conversation and energetic sex. Insist on it.Meanwhile,
optimal-experimentation theory suggests that at this tender stage of
life you are highly likely to meet someone even better. Socialise a lot
while your boyfriend is not around.
Here is Trudie on that same topic. By the way, here are two clips from Tim’s BBC Econ TV show, on YouTube.
Assorted
1. Virginia Postrel has lots of great new posts.
2. Robin Hanson on which beliefs are heritable.
3. David Horowitz’s disastrous academic "Bill of Rights" fails in Pennsylvania.
4. The Democratic Congress-to-be is already rejecting two free trade deals.
5. Talk of congestion road pricing for Manhattan.