Category: Current Affairs
Price controls in everything
Due to increasing demands for larger dowries, unemployment and housing
problems significant numbers of Yazidi youths are struggling to get
married in the Kurdistan Region today, raising fears of social unrest
among the small community.
It has been reported that some Yazidi families are now demanding a
dowry of between ten and thirty thousand US dollars to allow their
daughter to marry a fellow Yazidi.
But now, in an attempt to rectify the problem, the Spirit Council (the
Yazidi supreme religious council) has announced a new religious decree
stating that families cannot demand dowries higher than two thousand
dollars.
Here is the full story and I thank Lars Christian Hvidberg for the pointer. The first-cut approach to incidence suggests that wealth will be redistributed away from attractive and otherwise marketable bride prospects. In addition, good-looking men should now "marry better," relative to wealthy men, than in past times.
China-Africa fact of the day
Based on official statistics, since 2003, the number of Africans in
Guangzhou has been growing at 30-40% annually. Based on a report in the
Guangzhou Daily, there might already be 100,000 in the community. They
come from Nigeria, Guinea, Cameroon, Liberia, and Mali. Amongst these,
Africa’s most populous country Nigeria claims first place.
They primarily live in village-districts in the city of Guangdong
(like Dongpu, Dengfeng Jie, Yongping Jie). They do their business in a
few large-scale China-Africa commerce malls.
Here is more information and I thank David Shor for the pointer.
Very nice tribute to Rose Friedman
You'll find it here. Excerpt:
They were known for being both romantically and intellectually suited
to each other, often appearing in public holding hands, and though
often debating – Ms. Friedman was known as the less compromising of the
two – rarely, if ever bickering.
Rose Director Friedman passes away at 97
Reports are here. The few times I met her, she seemed like an angel of a woman.
Spain fact of the day
According to an article which appeared in the Spanish newspaper Expansion this morning, one in five Spanish mortgages is now considered as being high risk and liable to become “non performing”.
Here is more.
Paul Romer, ask and ye shall receive
For a man who likes the Kentucky Colonels, is that not how it ought to be? Reality now brings Caribbean Charter Islands:
The UK has resumed day-to-day control of the Turks and Caicos
islands amid ongoing allegations of widespread corruption in the
British overseas territory, the Foreign Office said tonight.
Local
government in the islands, which lie 500 miles south-east of Florida in
the Atlantic, will be suspended for up to two years while their affairs
are put back in "good order", according to the FCO.
The Islanders themselves are divided over the idea.
Bjorn Lomborg supports a climate change treaty
Bjorn Lomborg, an influential figure among climate change sceptics,
has thrown his weight behind a drive to forge a global deal to halt
rising world temperatures at a summit in Copenhagen this year.
“It’s incredibly important. We need a global deal on the climate,” Mr Lomborg told the Financial Times.
He does argue, correctly, that we should first focus on the low-hanging fruit, such as soot emissions and methane.
Totally false and ridiculous claims about Chinese bubbles
China's communist government owns a large part of the money-creation and money-spending apparatus. Money supply therefore shot up 28.5 percent in June. Since it controls the banks, it can force them to lend, which it has also done.
Finally, China can force government-owned corporate entities to borrow and spend, and spend quickly itself. This isn't some slow-moving, touchy-feely democracy. If the Chinese government decides to build a highway, it simply draws a straight line on the map…
…But don't confuse fast growth with sustainable growth. Much of China's growth over the past decade has come from lending to the United States. The country suffers from real overcapacity. And now growth comes from borrowing — and hundreds of billion-dollar decisions made on the fly don't inspire a lot of confidence. For example, a nearly completed, 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed in June due to the poor quality of its construction.
This growth will result in a huge pile of bad debt — as forced lending is bad lending. The list of negative consequences is very long, but the bottom line is simple: There is no miracle in the Chinese miracle growth, and China will pay a price. The only question is when and how much.
The link is here. The claim is that the entire Chinese economy is a huge bubble waiting to burst, but in the meantime it is being sustained by government monetary and fiscal policy, plus it is being lending to its major customer (never a good long-run strategy), namely the United States. These charges were written by Vitaliy Katsenels.
I thank Laeeth Isharc for the pointer.
Intrade vs. MSM: Sotomayor Nomination
What tells you more about the Sotomayor nomination, all of the chatter and debate in the MSM over her "controversial" remarks or the single number from intrade: bids at 98,5, i.e. an estimated probability of confirmation of 98.5% (as of July 14, 11:12 pm EST)?
Loyal-reader Jim Ward writes:
Do reporters and news Agencies even know to check the betting markets? Or do they just ignore it, because “X sure to happen, nothing to see” is not a story?
Or they don’t want to seem biased, and have to provide 2 sides to every story…Why not just throw Intrade odds into every story as an addendum?
I'm actually amazed at how far prediciton markets have come. In Entrepreneurial Economics I wrote:
…perhaps one day, instead of quoting an expert, the
New York Times editorial section will refer to the latest quote on "health
care plan A" available in the business pages.
At the time, I didn't think that day would be just a few years in the future. Admittedly, we are not quite there yet but during the last election it was common for media outlets to refer to the prediction markets. I think this trend will continue. Can futarchy be far behind?
When No Means Yes
… Having voted against the administration's climate change bill on the record means that at least some of these House Democrats will be able to vote for what emerges from a House-Senate conference later in the year. Therefore, the chances of a climate bill being enacted this year is now much greater than it was 24 hours ago.
That's the ever-perceptive Stan Collender on the politics of the climate change bill.
The Netflix prize has been won
New markets at Intrade.com
Here is the home page. As I post this, Bernanke's reappointment (a good idea) is running at 70, Waxman-Markey is running at 50, and health care reform at 35, c'mon people get the volume on those contracts up.
Credible threats
Here is one of them:
Ms. Feinstein has threatened to vote against Mr. Obama’s health care bill if it draws Medicare funds from high-cost areas like California to low-cost areas of the country.
She is, of course, a Democrat and a progressive. The article is instructive throughout.
The Green Dam is Down
This is welcome news and in combination with recent events in Iran provides an interesting commentary on the state of free expression in the world today.
Caving to public pressure, China on Tuesday said that use of its controversial "Green Dam Youth Escort" software is not required….The ministry official added that while all computers sold on the mainland will feature the filtering software, individuals are free to decide whether they use it.
How to follow current events
On Iran, Andrew Sullivan > Σ MSM.
Megan McArdle offers some reasons why. I would add that MSM is unwilling to rely much on information aggregators such as Twitter and they are reluctant to report things in the uncertain, hanging narrative kind of way that blogs (sometimes) excel at. MSM needs the definitive-sounding soundbites for people who are tuned in for only a few minutes and don't come back or don't come back with any memory of what was said before.
We're seeing a revolution in coverage of current events right before our very eyes.