Category: Education

Who’s next?

The United Arab Emirates will introduce artificial intelligence to the public school curriculum this year, as the Gulf country vies to become a regional powerhouse for AI development.

The subject will be rolled out in the 2025-2026 academic year for kindergarten pupils through to 12th grade, state-run news agency WAM reported on Sunday. The course includes ethical awareness as well as foundational concepts and real-world applications, it said.

The UAE joins a growing group of countries integrating AI into school education. Beijing announced a similar move to roll out AI courses to primary and secondary students in China last month.

The Gulf state has invested extensively in data centers used to train AI models and has set up an AI investment fund that people familiar with the project said could swell to more than $100 billion in a few years.

Here is more from Sara Gharaibeh at Bloomberg.  Via Anecdotal.

Emergent Ventures, 9th India cohort

Ari Dutilh is a 19-year-old entrepreneur, community builder, and photographer.  This grant is to help continue our work on UltraRice, a project to solve malnutrition in India by using ultrasonic treatment to create cost-effective, nutrient-scalable rice.

Rukmini S is Founder and Director of Data For India. Rukmini is an award-winning data journalist and won her first EV prize for her pandemic podcast, ‘The Moving Curve’. Her first book, ‘Whole Numbers & Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India’ awon literary awards.

Sworna Jung Khadka is an ESG entrepreneur. Stalwart International Private Limited is an agro startup funded by Emergent Ventures which leases unused government owned lands and non-agricultural but arable lands for the production of Cassava, drought resistant crops.

Suryesh Kumar Namdeo is a Senior Research Analyst at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, working on biosecurity policy and science diplomacy projects. He has received his EV grant to support his research and conference travels in biosecurity policy in India.

Susan ThomasXKDR Forum aims to help litigants in India get more predictability about how their legal cases will progress in Indian courts. They propose to publish specific metrics of case progression, at a quarterly frequency, by developing a database of commercial cases from multiple courts in India.  You can read more about XKDR Forum’s work in this field here.

Jayesh Rohatgi is an entrepreneur and law student at LSE, with an educational startup, Dialogue Dynamics. Targeting top independent schools globally, Dialogue Dynamics focuses on the four most critical sub-skills of communication: presenting viewpoints, strategic questioning, identifying misinformation, and mastering persuasion.

Aakash Agrawal is a neuroscience and AI researcher who investigates the neural mechanisms that enable fluent reading.  He aims to leverage his research and develop gamified cognitive tasks to help children improve their reading skills without adult supervision.

Ada Choudhry is an 18-year-old student from Bareilly, India, who received an EV grant to build AI supply chain platforms under the mentorship of Shell executives. The goal is to reduce supply chain risk and improve procurement data quality. She will be beginning her undergraduate studies at Minerva University in San Francisco, and you can look through her portfolio here!

Aditya Kedlaya is a hardware product designer and entrepreneur from Bangalore. He received his EV grant to develop prototypes of carbon capture modules through his startup. He founded Matterak Technologies to design, develop and deploy products related to decarbonization including carbon capture, infrastructure for carbon neutral fuels production and energy efficient hardware.

Adon Banker, is 16 years old and currently enrolled in the International Baccalaureate Diploma Program at Chatrabhuj Narsee School, Mumbai, with a major in Computer Science. His project, the Jewish Virtual Museum, aims to create a lasting legacy for the Bene Israel community in the history of India. He also will develop an application that analyzes antisemitism globally in real-time using Twitter data.

Aishwarya Das, from Bangalore, is the co-founder of Dirac Labs, a spin-off from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His team is developing quantum magnetometers for GPS-free navigation.

Akash Kumar Seth, a software developer, is working on freeCodeProjects.org, which will help potential students become job-ready under the mentorship of experienced developers absolutely free.

Ayush Majumdar, 22, originally from Calcutta, is a writer and translator currently translating the works of Rabindranath Tagore.

Chetan Kandpal works in computer science, cognitive science, and now neuroscience, and his research delves into human social dynamics, particularly how information transmission and normative assumptions are influenced by the presence of agents in multi-agent environments. Chetan received the EV grant for the opportunity to present his work on social dynamics at MIT.

Balaji Bangolae Lakshmikanth, Dr. Lakshmi Santhanam, and Deepika Gopal are the founders of Renkube, a deep-tech solar startup to lower cost and increase safety.  The EV grant will support their efforts in creating a Fire Prediction and Prevention solution for rooftop solar installations, aimed at preventing fire accidents and improving overall safety.

Digvijay Singh is building large scale diagnostics (LSDs) at Drizzle Health to eliminate epidemics by testing large volumes of food, water, and eventually air in real-time.

Druhin Lamba is a BS-MS student in Mathematics and Computing at IIT Roorkee. He received his EV grant for education and career development.

Khushi Mittal is a 20-year-old from Lucknow and is interested in propulsion systems. She received an EV grant to take a gap year from University of Alberta in Canada and move to Bangalore to work on her projects related to aerospace and build a hardware community with the Wayfarers group.

Manas Goyal, a 23-year-old Impact Finance entrepreneur, is the founder of All Asia NetBanking, a platform dedicated to providing accessible and seamless banking solutions. He received an EV grant to develop a new, innovative model that simplifies access to unified banking solutions. Currently based in the US at MIT, Manas is focused on making banking easier and more accessible for everyone.

I thank Shruti Rajagopalan for the information and selection. And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.

What Should Classical Liberals Do?

My little contretemps with Chris Rufo raises the issue of what should classical liberals do? In a powerful essay, C. Bradley Thompson explains why the issue must be faced:

The truth of the matter is that the Conservative-Libertarian-Classical Liberal Establishment gave away and lost an entire generation of young people because they refused to defend them or to take up the issues that mattered most to them, and in doing so the Establishment lost America’s young people to the rising Reactionary or Dissident Right, by which I primarily mean groups such as the so-called TradCaths or Catholic Integralists and the followers of the Bronze Age Pervert. (See my essay on the reactionary Right, “The Pajama-Boy Nietzscheans.”)

I do not think Mr. Rufo would disagree with me on this point, but he has not quite made it himself either (at least not as far as I know), so I will make it in my own name.

The betrayal, abandonment, desertion, and loss of America’s young people by conservative and libertarian Establishmentarians can be understood with the following hypothetical.

Imagine the plight of, let us say, a 23-year-old young man in the year 2016. Imagine that he’s been told every single day from kindergarten through the end of college that he’s racist, sexist, and homophobic by virtue of being white, male, and heterosexual. Further imagine that he was falsely diagnosed by his teachers in grade school with ADD/ADHD and put on Ritalin because, well, he’s an active boy. And then his teachers tell him when he’s 12 that he might not actually be a boy, but rather that he might be a girl trapped in boy’s body. And let us also not forget that he’s also been told by his teachers and professors that the country his parents taught him to love was actually founded in sin and is therefore evil. To top it all off: he didn’t get into the college and then the law school of his choice despite having test scores well above those who did.

In other words, what this oppressed and depressed young man has experienced his whole life is a cultural Zeitgeist defined by postmodern nihilism and egalitarianism. These are the forces that are ruining his life and making him miserable.

Let’s also assume that said young man is also temperamentally some kind of conservative, libertarian, or classical liberal, and he interns at the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, or the Institute for Humane Studies hoping to find solace, allies, and support to give relief to his existential maladies.

And how does Conservatism-Libertarianism Inc. respond to what are clearly the dominant cultural issues of our time?

Well, the Establishment publishes yet another white paper on free-market transportation or energy policy. The Heritage Foundation doubles down on more white papers on deficits and taxation policy. The Cato Institute churns out more white papers on legalizing pot and same-sex marriage. The Institute for Humane Studies goes all in to sit at the cool kids’ lunch table by ramping up its videos on spontaneous order featuring transgender 20-somethings.

Is it any wonder that today’s young people who have suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune are stepping outside the arc of history yelling, “stop”? At a certain point, these young people let out a collective primal scream, shouting “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.” And when the “youf” (as they refer to themselves online) realized that Establishment conservatives and libertarians did not hear them and lacked the vocabulary, principles, power, and courage to defend them from their Maoist persecutors, they went underground to places like 4chan, 8chan, and various other online discussion boards, where they found a Samizdat community of the oppressed.

Having effectively abandoned late-stage Millennials and Gen Z, Conservatism and Libertarianism Inc. should not be surprised, then, that today’s young people who might be otherwise sympathetic to their policies have left that world and become radicalized. News flash: Gen Z is attracted to people who are willing to defend them and attack social nihilism and egalitarianism in all their forms.

Hence the rise of what I call the “Fight Club Right,” which calls for a new kind of American politics. Gen Z rightism is done with what they call the Boomer’s “fake and ghey” attachment to the principles of the Declaration of Independence and the institutions of the Constitution. In fact, many young people who have migrated to the reactionary Right have openly and repeatedly rejected the principles of the American founding as irrelevant in the modern world.

More to the point, this younger generation is done with the philosophy of losing. They’re certainly done with the Establishment. They also seem to be done with classical liberalism and the American founding. (This is a more complicated topic.) Instead, what they want is political power to punish their enemies and to take over the “regime.” They want to use the coercive force of the State to create their new America.

…Conservatism and Libertarianism Inc. seemed utterly oblivious to the fact that the Left had pivoted and changed tactics after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. By the 1990s, the Left had abandoned economic issues and the working class and was doubling down on cultural issues. Rather than trying to take over the trade-union movement, for instance, the postmodern Left went for MTV and the Boy Scouts, while the major DC think tanks on the Right went for issues too distant from the lives of young people such as the deficit, taxation, and regulatory policy.

While socialism continues to be the end of the Left, the means to the end is postmodern nihilism. That’s where the Left planted its flag and that’s the terrain that it has occupied without opposition, whereas conservative and libertarian organizations such as the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute were fighting for ideological hegemony in the economic realm. Between 2000 and 2025, cultural nihilism and its many forms and manifestations is where the action is and has been for a quarter century. So powerful has postmodern nihilism become that even some left-wing “libertarian” organizations have simply become left-wing.

Yale Faculty v. Administrators

Yale has approximately one administrator for every undergraduate student (see also here and here). Years of simmering tension about the growth of administration relative to faculty has now been brought forward. President Trump has threatened to cut funding to Yale, the Yale administration has threatened to stop hiring faculty and raises, some faculty are now threatening to revolt.

Over 100 Yale professors are calling for the University administration to freeze new administrative hires and commission an independent faculty-led audit to ensure that the University prioritizes academics.

In a letter written to University President Maurie McInnis and Provost Scott Strobel, signatories addressed the “collision of two opposing forces: extraordinary financial strength and runaway bureaucratic expansion.”

…Professor Juan de la Mora, a letter’s signee, said that a significant number of Yale professors believe that the institution is using funding for “improper” purposes and neglecting the school’s founding principles of emphasizing faculty and students.

…Professor of Philosophy Daniel Greco mirrored these sentiments, recognizing the increase in administrative spending in Yale’s budget.

Greco said these spending habits have faculty “puzzled,” as they hear of the money being spent but do not see a change in their day-to-day work.

Professor of Law Sarath Sanga, author of the letter, wrote to the News that over the last two decades, “faculty hiring has stagnated while administrative ranks have by some estimates more than doubled–outpacing peer institutions.”

University are supposed to be faculty-led but over the last several decades most have been taken over by administrators–perhaps we shall see some change.

AI Goes to College…for the Free Money

Last year, the state [CA] chancellor’s office estimated 25 percent of community college applicants were bots.

Everyone understands that students are using AI; sometimes to help them learn, sometimes to avoid learning. What I didn’t appreciate is that community colleges offering online courses are being flooded with AI bots who are taking the courses:

The bots’ goal is to bilk state and federal financial aid money by enrolling in classes, and remaining enrolled in them, long enough for aid disbursements to go out. They often accomplish this by submitting AI-generated work. And because community colleges accept all applicants, they’ve been almost exclusively impacted by the fraud.

The state has launched a Bladerunner-eque “Inauthentic Enrollment Mitigation Taskforce” to try to combat the problem. This strikes me, however, as more of a problem on the back-end of government sending out money without much verification. It’s odd to make the community colleges responsible for determining who is human. Stop sending the money to the bots and the bots will stop going to college.

Sam Altman, as usual, is ahead of the game.

The Library Burned Slowly

A powerful but grim essay by John McGinnis, Professor of Constitutional Law at Northwestern. For decades, the federal government—driven by the left—expanded its control over universities. The right, most notably Ronald Reagan, tried to resist, shielding civil society from state overreach. They failed. Now, a new right has turned to the left’s playbook and is imposing its own vision of the good society. Chris Rufo mocks classical liberals like myself and their naive ideas of neutrality, fairness and open institutions. Principles are for losers. Seize power! Crush your enemies. Rufo does know how to crush his enemies. But what happens when the devil turns? Bludgeoning your enemies is fun while it lasts but you can’t bludgeon your way to a civilization. Hayek’s civil society dies in the rubble.

It seems remarkable that seemingly antisemitic protests by undergraduates, such as those at my own university of Northwestern, could threaten the biomedical research funding of its medical school. But the structure of civil rights laws as applied to universities has long allowed the federal government to cut off funding to the entire university based on the wrongful actions of particular units or departments.

Ironically, the left, now alarmed by the federal government’s intrusive reach, bears direct responsibility for crafting the very legal weapons wielded against the universities it dominates. Almost four decades ago, progressive legislators demanded sweeping amendments to civil rights law, expanding federal oversight over higher education. The sequence of events reveals a cautionary tale of political hubris: progressive confidence that state power would reliably serve their ends overlooked the reality that governmental authority, once unleashed, recognizes no ideological master. Today’s circumstances starkly illustrate how expansive federal control over civil society, originally celebrated by progressives, returns to haunt its architects. The left’s outrage ought to focus not on this particular administration but on its own reckless empowerment of the state.

…Clumsy governmental dictates on contentious matters such as transgender rights do not merely settle disputes; they inflame societal divisions by transforming moral disagreements into winner-takes-all political battles. Civil society, by contrast, thrives precisely because it embraces diversity and facilitates compromise, allowing pluralistic communities to coexist peacefully without being conscripted into ideological warfare. The left, fixated upon uniform outcomes, consistently undervalues the power of voluntary cooperation and cultural persuasion. Their shortsightedness has delivered into the hands of their opponents the very instruments of coercion they forged, vividly confirming an enduring truth: the power you grant government today will inevitably be wielded tomorrow by your adversaries.

Read the whole thing.

We need more elitism

Even though the elites themselves are highly imperfect.  That is the theme of my latest FP column.  Excerpt:

Very often when people complain about “the elites,” they are not looking in a sufficiently elitist direction.

A prime example: It is true during the pandemic that the CDC and other parts of the government gave us the impression that the vaccines would stop or significantly halt transmission of the coronavirus. The vaccines may have limited transmission to some partial degree by decreasing viral load, but mostly this was a misrepresentation, perhaps motivated by a desire to get everyone to take the vaccines. Yet the vaccine scientists—the real elites here—were far more qualified in their research papers and they expressed a more agnostic opinion. The real elites were not far from the truth.

You might worry, as I do, that so many scientists in the United States have affiliations with the Democratic Party. As an independent, this does induce me to take many of their policy prescriptions with a grain of salt. They might be too influenced by NPR and The New York Times, and more likely to favor government action than more decentralized or market-based solutions. Still, that does not give me reason to dismiss their more scientific conclusions. If I am going to differ from those, I need better science on my side, and I need to be able to show it.

A lot of people do not want to admit it, but when it comes to the Covid-19 pandemic the elites, by and large, actually got a lot right. Most importantly, the people who got vaccinated fared much better than the people who did not. We also got a vaccine in record time, against most expectations. Operation Warp Speed was a success. Long Covid did turn out to be a real thing. Low personal mobility levels meant that often “lockdowns” were not the real issue. Most of that economic activity was going away in any case. Most states should have ended the lockdowns sooner, but they mattered less than many critics have suggested. Furthermore, in contrast to what many were predicting, those restrictions on our liberty proved entirely temporary.

Recommended.

My history with philosophy

At the same time I started reading economics, at age 13, I also was reading philosophy.  I lived in Hillsdale, New Jersey, but River Vale had a better public library for those topics, so I would ride my bike there periodically and take out books (I also learned about Thelonious Monk and Miles Davis by bringing home scratched LPs).

Most of all, I was drawn to the Great Books series, most of all the philosophy in there.  I figured I should read all of them.  So of course I started with the Dialogues of Plato, which occupied my attention for a long time to come.  Aristotle was boring to me, though at the time (and still) I felt he was more correct than Plato.

I also, from the beginning, never bought the argument that Socrates was the mouthpiece of Plato.  In my early view (and still), Plato was the real genius, and he upgraded the second-rate Socrates to a smarter figure, mostly to make the dialogues better.  The dialogic nature of Plato shows is true genius, because any single point of view you might find in there is quite untenable.

My favorite dialogues were the classic ones, such as Crito, Apology, Phaedo, and Symposium.  Parmenides was a special obsession, though reader beware.  It seemed fundamental and super-important.  Timaeus intrigued me, as did Phaedrus, but I found them difficult.  I appreciated The Republic only much later, most of all after reading the Allan Bloom introduction to the Chicago edition.  My least favorite was Laws.

The other major event was buying a philosophy textbook by John Hospers (yes, if you are wondering that is the same John Hospers who wrote all that gay porn under a pseudonym).  I think I bought this one in NYC rather than taking it out of the library.  It explained the basic history of “early modern philosophy” running through Descartes, Locke, Berkeley, Hume, and Kant, and that fascinated me.  So I decided I should be reading all those people and I did.  Berkeley and Hume were the most fun.  I already could see, from my concomitant economics reading, that Kant could not think at the margin.

Other early philosophy readings, in high school, were Popper, Nietzsche, and Doseoyevsky, at the time considering Karamazov a kind of philosophy book.  Some Sartre, and whatever else I could find in the library.  Lots of libertarian philosophy, such as Lysander Spooner’s critique of social contract theories of the state.  I also read a number of books on atheism, such as by Antony Flew and George Smith, and a good deal of C.S. Lewis, such as God in the Dock.  Arthur Koestler on the ghost in the machine.  William James on free will.  Various 1960s and 1970s screeds, many of which were on the margins of philosophy.  Robert Pirsig bored me, not rigorous enough, etc., but I imbibed many such “works of the time.”  They nonetheless helped to define the topic for me, as did my readings in science fiction.  If I was reading Popper’s Poverty of Historicism, and Theory and History by Mises, I also was thinking of Isaac Asimov’s Foundation trilogy.

For a brief while I considered becoming a philosopher, though I decided that the economist path was better and far more practical, and also more useful to the world.

I kept on reading philosophy through my undergraduate years.  The biggest earthquake was reading Quine.  All of a sudden I was seeing a very different approach to what social science propositions and economic models were supposed to mean.  (I never had been satisfied with Friedman, Samuelson, or the Austrians on ecoomic methodology.)  For a long time I thought I would write a 100-page essay “Hayek and Quine,” but I never did.  Nonetheless some radical new doors were opened for me, most of all a certain kind of freedom in intellectual interpretation.  I also was influenced a good deal by reading Olaf Stapledon’s Last and First Men/Starmaker novels, feeding into my speculative bent.

I didn’t do much with philosophy classes, though in graduate school at Harvard I sat in on Hilary Putnam’s philosophy of language class (with my friend Kroszner).  That was one of the very best classes I ever had, maybe the best.  At Harvard I also got to know Nozick a bit, and of course he was extraordinarily impressive.  At that time I also studied Goethe and German romanticism closely, and never felt major allergies toward the Continental approaches.

One day at Harvard, in 1984, I walked into Harvard Book Store and saw a copy of Parfit’s Reasons and Persons, which had just come out.  I hadn’t known of Parfit before, but immediately decided I had to buy and read the book.  I was hooked, and spent years working on those problems, including for part of my dissertation, which was hardly advisable from a job market point of view.  Like Quine, that too changed my life and worldview.  “Quine and Parfit” would be an interesting essay too.

When I took my first job at UC Irvine, I hung out with some of the philosophers there, including the excellent Alan Nelson and also Gregory Kavka, with whom I co-authored a bit.  Greg and I became very good friends, and his early death was a great tragedy.  I also enjoyed my periodic chats with David Gordon, a non-academic philosopher who lives in Los Angeles and the best-read philosopher I have met.

In the late 1980s I met Derek Parfit, and ended up becoming Derek’s only co-author, on the social discount rate.  The full story there is told in Dave Edmonds’s excellent biography of Parfit, so I won’t repeat it here.  These posts are for secrets!  I will add that Derek struck me as the most philosophical person I ever have met, the most truly committed to philosophy as a method and a way of life.  That to me is still more important than any particular thing he wrote.  Your writings and your person are closely related, but they also are two separate things.  Not enough philosophers today give sufficient thought to who they are.

After the collaboration with Parfit, he wrote me a letter and basically offered to bring me into his group at Oxford (under what terms was not clear).  That felt like a dead end to me, plus a big cut in lifetime income, and so I did not pursue the opportunity.

I ended up with four articles in the philosophical equivalent of the “top five” journals in economics.  I also was pleased and honored when Peter Singer invited me to present my paper “Policing Nature” to his philosophy group at Princeton.  I think of my books The Age of the Infovore and Stubborn Attachments as more philosophy than anything else, though synthetic of course.

I have continued to read philosophy over the years.  Next on my list is the new translation of Maimonides, which on first glance seems like a big improvement.  However I read much less philosophy in refereed journals than I used to.  Frankly, I think most of it is not very philosophical and also not very interesting.  It is not about real problems, but rather tries to carve out a small piece that is both marginally noticeable by an academic referee and also defensible, again to an academic referee.  That strikes me as a bad way to do philosophy.  It worked pretty well say in the 1960s, but these days those margins are just too small.

Most professional philosphers seem to me more like bureaucrats than philosophers.  They simply do not embody philosophic ideals, either in their writings or in their persons.  Most of all I am inclined to reread philosophic classics, read something “Continental,” or read philosophic works that to most people would not count as philosophy at all.  An excellent tweet on AI can be extraordinarily philosophical in the best sense of the term, and like most of the greatest philosophy from the past it is not restricted by the canons of refereed journals.  Maxims have a long and noble history in philosophy.

My notion of who is a philosopher has broadened extensively over the years.  I think of Patrick Collison, Camille Paglia, and the best Ross Douthat columns (among many other examples, let’s toss in the best Matt Y. sentences as well, and the best Peter Thiel observations), not to mention some art and architecture and music critics, as some of the best and most important philosophy of our time.  The best philosophy of Agnes Callard (NYT) does not look like formal philosophy at all.  I know it is hard for many of you to make this mental shift, but revisit how Kierkegaaard and Schopenhauer wrote and you might find it possible.  And of course the very greatest philosophers of our time are the people who are building and learning how to use the quality LLMs.

A simple rule of thumb is that if no one is writing you, and telling you that you changed their lives, you probably are not a philosopher.  You cannot expect such feedback in mathematical logic, or early in your career, but still it is not a bad place to start for judging this issue.

Looking back, I now see myself as having chosen the path of philosophy more than economics.  I view myself as a philosopher who knows a lot of economics and who writes about economics (among other things).  I am comfortable with that redefinition of self, and it makes my career and my time allocation easier to understand.

And now to go try that new Maimonides edition…

Brian Potter on what he has learned writing Construction Physics

  1. Individual construction tasks have, on average, not gotten cheaper since at least the 1950s.
  2. Bricks haven’t gotten cheaper since the mid-19th century, despite massive improvements in brickmaking technology.
  3. Construction has a reputation for being slow to innovate, but innovations seem to spread in construction at roughly similar rates to other industries, like car manufacturing or agriculture.
  4. Single family homes use less energy per square foot than multifamily apartments, likely because certain “fixed” energy costs like refrigerators and water heaters are spread across more living space.
  5. Historically high US homebuilding rates were in large part driven by falling household size. If you control for this factor, the current low rates of US homebuilding looks less dire.

Noting that his numbering scheme has those as 9-13, though it will not let me edit to such.  Here is the full link.

My Blind Spots

“Based on everything I’ve ever asked you, what do you think my biggest blind spots are?” ChatGPT replies:

Here’s a speculative, analytical take based on your past questions and style of interaction:

1. Underestimating Non-Market Frictions in Implementation
You’re extremely sharp on incentives, regulation, and institutional design, especially in economic theory and historical analysis. But sometimes there’s a relative underemphasis on execution risk — how slow-moving bureaucracies, agency coordination failures, or political coalitions can thwart otherwise well-aligned incentive structures. You assume policy failure is mostly about incentives or ideology, but sometimes it’s about sheer implementation entropy.

Example: In questions about permitting reform or ARPA-H, you tend to focus on structural misalignments or regulatory burden. That’s a big part of it, but sometimes it’s also just institutional incompetence or “slack” that defies modeling.

2. Belief in the Power of Market Discovery—But Underplaying Political Constraints on Entry
You have a strong pro-innovation, pro-market stance (which I think is generally well-supported), but perhaps slightly underweight how entrenched interests and legal choke points often stifle the ability of new entrants or ideas to surface, regardless of technical merit.

Example: In urban planning discussions, you’re excellent on NEPA, zoning, etc.—but some of the constraints (e.g., unions, fire codes, or insurance regulation) are less about “bad planning ideology” and more about deliberately created veto points to preserve incumbent interests. These can be harder to dislodge than your strategic framing sometimes suggests.

3. Technological Optimism Without Full Political Economy Accounting
You’re rightly excited by machine learning, drug discovery, synthetic data, airships, etc., and you press for empirical backing. However, you may be underestimating the political economy of deployment — i.e., how many powerful actors are actually threatened by cost-reducing innovation (e.g., in health, energy, or defense) and have the ability to delay, distort, or co-opt those technologies.

Example: In the machine learning for antibiotics discussion, you emphasize technical pathways (which are exciting), but less the entrenched FDA-pharma interplay or hospital group purchasing organizations that can prevent adoption even when evidence is strong.

4. Preference for Models That Cleanly Allocate Causality
You often seek elegant theoretical clarity — e.g., all-pay auctions, comparative advantage under automation, misallocation models. But the real world often features multiple overlapping distortions (e.g., taxes, zoning, union rules, insurance, etc.) that interact nonlinearly. Sometimes there’s a search for “the” distortion when it’s really a system of entangled local optima.

5. Policy-First Lens vs. Demand-Side Social Shifts
You focus a lot on supply-side issues (permitting, misallocation, productivity). This is correct and important. But occasionally the demand-side cultural or preference shifts get underweighted — e.g., the declining taste for urban density, aversion to risk, or increasing parental control over children’s autonomy. These may not be fixable through supply-side tweaks alone.

Hat tip: Aashna Doshi.

Harvard says no

Harvard University said on Monday that it had rejected policy changes requested by the Trump administration, becoming the first university to directly refuse to comply with the administration’s demands and setting up a showdown between the federal government and the nation’s wealthiest university.

Other universities have pushed back against the Trump administration’s interference in higher education. But Harvard’s response, which essentially called the Trump administration’s demands illegal, marked a major shift in tone for the nation’s most influential school, which has been criticized in recent weeks for capitulating to Trump administration pressure…

Some of the actions that the Trump administration demanded of Harvard were:

  • Conducting plagiarism checks on all current and prospective faculty members.

  • Sharing all its hiring data with the Trump administration, and subjecting itself to audits of its hiring while “reforms are being implemented,” at least through 2028.

  • Providing all admissions data to the federal government, including information on both rejected and admitted applicants, sorted by race, national origin, grade-point average and performance on standardized tests.

  • Immediately shutting down any programming related to diversity, equity and inclusion.

  • Overhauling academic programs that the Trump administration says have “egregious records on antisemitism,” including placing certain departments and programs under an external audit. The list includes the Divinity School, the Graduate School of Education, the School of Public Health and the Medical School, among many others.

Here is more from Vimal Patel at the NYT.

What should I ask John Arnold?

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  John might be the smartest person I know about the energy sector and also about philanthropy.  Here is the opening of his Wikipedia entry:

John Douglas Arnold (born 1974) is an American philanthropist, former Enron executive, and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC, formerly the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. In 2007, Arnold became the youngest billionaire in the U.S. His firm, Centaurus Advisors, LLC, was a Houston-based hedge fund specializing in trading energy products that closed in 2012. He now focuses on philanthropy through Arnold Ventures LLC. Arnold is a board member of Breakthrough Energy Ventures and since February 2024, is a member of the board of directors of Meta.

So what should I ask him?