Category: Sports

France, and the United States

by  Tyler Cowen in

The U.S. Olympic team is one of a handful that will supply air conditioners for their athletes at the Paris Games in a move that undercuts organizers’ plans to cut carbon emissions.

U.S. Olympic and Paralympic CEO Sarah Hirshland said Friday that while the U.S. team appreciates efforts aimed at sustainability, the federation would be supplying AC units for what is typically the largest contingent of athletes at the Summer Games.

Here is the full story, via several loyal MR readers.

The best business books aren’t in the management section

by  Tyler Cowen in

I expand on this theme in my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt from that:

I thus have a modest proposal for anyone interested in business books: Read books about specific businesses or industries that you already know a lot about. That way, you will have enough contextual knowledge for the book to be meaningful. Of course many people don’t work at a company or industry big or famous enough that there are books about it, so I have a corollary proposition: You will learn the most about management by reading books about sports and musical groups.

And this:

Many music and sports books are not only written for obsessed fans, but also written by obsessed fans. Traditional business books, in contrast, are frequently written to get consulting work or on to the speaker’s circuit. The incentive is not to offend anybody and to put forward some “least common denominator” insights, rather than say anything truly original that might be complicated to explain. The end result is a bookstore section that would be mind-numbing to have to read.

There is much more of interest at the link, recommended.

What to think of Luka?

by  Tyler Cowen in

I am receiving inquiries as to whether I have upgraded my view of Luka, as his last series against Minnesota was masterful, above say the Larry Bird level.

For a while I have thought he has the potential to become a generational, “best in the NBA” (or second best?) quality player.  But he has not been, either.  Let us hope the regime has shifted.

But do keep in mind, eleven days ago ESPN ran an article ranking him as the 5th best player in the playoffs through the first two rounds.  At the time no one took umbrage at that accurate assessment.  Of course that is still very, very good, but not the Luka we have seen as of late.  So we’ll see which Luka we get moving forward.  Top players do make major upgrades in their games as they move forward, but we also need to tone down the recency bias here.  Pre-playoffs he was rated at #2, implying that his performance for the first two rounds was a bit of a disappointment.

In the playoffs more generally:

…Doncic’s production (28.3 points and 9.1 assists per game) and efficiency (49.7% effective field goal percentage) has dipped significantly from his historic regular-season numbers (league-high 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, 57.3% effective field goal percentage).

Of course part of that is exactly the good news as well.  Luka reduced his usage rate from 40.3% in the playoffs two years ago (he missed the playoffs last year) to 32.1% this year, a too-high usage rate having been his biggest shortcoming.  And the other Mavericks truly have stepped up to fill the gap.  Remember when ESPN marked the Kyrie Irving trade a “D”?

By the way, no need to use injuries as an “excuse” — they are common amongst high-usage players, and they count as “quality” every bit as much as healthy performance on the court.

That was then, this is now, NBA edition

by  Tyler Cowen in

Then, from summer of 2023: “The Boston Celtics just set an NBA record by agreeing to a five-year, $304 million contract with two-time All-Star Jaylen Brown…the odds are the deal will be seen as a good one — maybe even a bargain. The economics of the National Basketball Association have been shifting toward more and more money.”

That was by me, for Bloomberg, and at the time that claim received a lot of pushback.

Now: “With a potential $7B annual media rights deal looming, NBA players could make up to $95M a year on supermax contracts in the future.”

Here is a further look at those numbers.  Did I mention that the Celtics are in the Eastern Finals and are the current favorite to win the title?

*Hoop Atlas*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The author is Kirk Goldsberry, and the subtitle is Mapping the Remarkable Transformation of the NBA.  I enjoyed this book very much, and the visual are excellent.  The prose reads well, but also sticks to the analytical.  Excerpt:

Over 80 percent of NBA 3s involve an assist.  Typical 3-pointers are catch-and-shoot attempts that punctuate playmaking sequences that occur far away from the actual shot location, and that’s where James comes in.  James is the NBA’s all-time leader in assisted 3s.  He may never surpass John Stockton for total assists, but James has had his hand in more 3s than anyone else, period.  He’s assisted on more 3s than Curry has made, and he’s had an outsized impact as a producer of corner 3.  As a playmaker, James has extended what [Bruce] Bowen and the Spurs began.

…Six of the 10 most prolific corner-3 shooters of all time have been assisted by James, and that’s no coincidence.

…On the list of the NBA’s greatest scorers ever, James is the best playmaker, and it’s not close.

And this:

MJ was a durable player by any reasonable standard, but he ended up playing fewer career minutes than Jason Terry.

Recommended.

What should I ask Brian Winter?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Here is his bio:

Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and a seasoned analyst of Latin American politics, with more than 20 years following the region’s ups and downs. He lived in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico as a correspondent for Reuters before taking on his current role in New York, where he is also the vice president of policy for the Americas Society and Council of the Americas. He has been called “the best foreign expert on Brazil of this moment” by GloboNews. Brian is the author of several books including Why Soccer Matters, a New York Times bestseller he wrote with the Brazilian soccer legend Pelé; The Accidental President of Brazil, co-authored with President Fernando Henrique Cardoso; and Long After Midnight, a memoir about trying (and failing) to learn to tango in Argentina. He is a regular contributor to television and radio, the host of the Americas Quarterly Podcast and a prolific barbecuer and chef. Proficient in Spanish and Portuguese, Brian speaks frequently about Latin America’s past, present and future to investors and general-interest audiences. Follow him on Twitter @BrazilBrian

So what should I ask him?

Kind of like the NBA All-Star game

by  Tyler Cowen in

In the NBA All-Star game, no one is playing defense any more, and so the score was a ridiculous 211-186, something which would never happen in a regular season game.  (Note that some of the league’s finer defenders were on the floor, though Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP and an intimidating defender, was sidelined due to injury.)  Some part of the ethic of (defensive) service has disappeared, though the players are still happy to shoot and score.  And they certainly will play defense hard when the playoffs roll around.

I’ve never seen papers on the labor supply of royal families (Cowen’s Second Law?), but I do wonder what it varies with.  It is hard to use one’s royal position to influence politics, at least in the UK.  And certainly you are not paid more if you work harder.  The King or Queen nominally owns a lot of land and art, but in practice one cannot pull income streams from those assets.  You can have a Michelangelo drawing hung in your bedroom, but that if anything is a reason not to go out in public.

You can use a royal family position to meet with lots of important people, but toward what end?  Raising money for your next start-up?  Alternatively, you can work harder to raise your stature and influence with the other royal family members (now we’re getting somewhere).  But what if that equilibrium falls apart, if only because of one or two initial defections, or in the case of the King an illness?  What external force would keep the whole struggle for royal family influence going?  Is this a case of multiple competitive equilibria, and now we (they?) are stuck in the low effort corner?  Can Lina Khan work on this?

What if they are all just pissed off with the lot of us?  In that case, what is our next move in this von Stackelberg game?  Should America reapply to the Empire with some trembling hand probability?  Would it suffice to give them Newfoundland back?  Take Northern Ireland off their hands?  Do they want us to send more or fewer tourists to London?  Should one of them marry Taylor Swift, or at least date her, to remain in the public eye?

If the NBA All-Star game is to improve, perhaps viewer censure (or mockery) for the non-cooperators is the primary way forward?

If econs could hoop — The New Bazaar

by  Tyler Cowen in

That is my podcast with Cardiff Garcia, now on-line and with transcript too.  Cardiff proposed a novel approach:

Who is the Magic Johnson of economics? Who was the Adam Smith of basketball?

On this fun and oddball episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff speaks with Tyler Cowen, economist and author of GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?

Inspired by the sportswriter Bill Simmons, Tyler wrote his book from the standpoint of a fan—having fun, taking sides, admitting biases, unapologetically trying to entertain the reader instead of presenting sober (boring) analysis.

Cardiff and Tyler—both huge basketball fans—first discuss Tyler’s ranking of the great economists and his lament for what economics used to be. Tyler also gives his reasons for releasing the book as a ChatGPT trained on its text, the first such book of its kind.

Then begins the fun. They take turns finding analogs for the great economists from the history of the NBA. And they do the same in reverse for basketball’s own GOATs. Which economist changed the nature of the field similar to the way Steph Curry set off the three-point revolution? Is there an economist whose comprehensive genius rivaled the ability of LeBron James to engineer exactly the outcome he wants on the court? What basketball player matched the charisma, brilliance, and even investment success of Keynes?

And why does Cardiff argue that Tyler himself is the Charles Barkley of economists despite their differences in personality, size, and other obvious dimensions?

All throughout the chat, Tyler and Cardiff are exploring the common traits that lead to greatness in hoops, the social sciences, and perhaps other domains. A treat for fans of either economics or hoops, or who simply appreciate the virtues of fandom itself.

Recommended, for some (not all)!

If you care enough, the state-contingent market will be there

by  Tyler Cowen in

Washington has the right to swap firsts with Phoenix in 2024 if the Wizards’ first (if 13-30) to New York is not conveyed. Phoenix can trade its 2024 first but not until the night of the draft. The Wizards also have the right to swap firsts in 2026 (if 9-30), 2028 (if 9-30) and 2030. Orlando then has the right to swap its 2026 first with the less favorable from Phoenix or Washington. Memphis has the right to swap the less favorable firsts of Phoenix and Washington in 2030. The Suns owe Brooklyn unprotected firsts in 2025, 2027 and 2029. Brooklyn also has the right to swap firsts with Phoenix in 2028. The Wizards then have the right to swap the least favorable first from the Nets, Suns or the 76ers first in 2028. Phoenix has three second-round picks available to trade.

Here is more from ESPN (gated) on NBA trade options as the trade deadline approaches.  And how about the Zion Williamson contract? (NYT):

Beyond the shift for the final three years of the deal, Williamson is at risk of losing even more in guarantees if he doesn’t hit certain marks during regular checks of his weight and body fat. Under the contract, the sum of Williamson’s weight in pounds and his body fat percentage must be less than 295. He was listed as weighing 285 pounds last season, meaning his body fat could not be higher than 10 percent.

The Pelicans also have protected themselves in case Williamson has any further significant issues with the fifth metatarsal in his right foot. If he suffers a fracture or a stress injury to that bone or the healed callus, or has what the contract calls a “hardware failure” related to the previous injury there, then half of his base salary for 2024-25 would no longer be guaranteed if the team released him.

That is only one part of the complexity of the broader deal.

Stephen Keese on coachability (from my email)

by  Tyler Cowen in
You wrote that sports often teaches students how to be a team member and coordinate with others.  True enough, but I think there is a more important educational benefit from sports that does not require team participation or competition nor risk injury. That is learning to be coachable.  Historically coaching was a fundamental part of higher education.  In English universities, coaches are called tutors.  Elsewhere they were/are known as mentors and guides,Being coachable or mentorable is one of the most valuable traits of students and adults, whether as a solo practitioner, group leader, or team member.

Do I want the Wizards and Capitols to move to Virginia?

by  Tyler Cowen in

No, in short.  To be clear, I don’t have any personal NIMBY stake in this, as the new site in Alexandria is about as far away from my home as the old site downtown.  The bad news is that there are fewer complementary visits attached to the new site.  Under the current regime, the Museum of American Art — which is pretty good — is a mere block away.  The National Gallery is walking distance.  How about all those meeting opportunities in DC?  So you can combine a game visit with many other good activities.  I’ll even accept a higher risk of crime for this benefit.  What comparable opportunities might we expect from Potomac Landing in Alexandria, VA?  A bunch of overpriced corporate-branded taverns nearby?  Whom do you think you can meet for that early dinner, before going to the game?

It is also easy to leave the current site and make a clean getaway.  You could walk for five or six blocks and catch an Uber without hindrance.  Or you could park your car in a garage ten blocks away and drive home without hassles, or needing to deal with post-game traffic.  (And is the Metro still running?)  A concert or sports venue can be evaluated by a simple rule: if your only options for leaving are the ones they have planned for you, it will be a bad experience.

Ugh.  And I haven’t even gone into the well-known bipartisan reality that sports stadium subsidies are inefficient, inegalitarian, and full of rent-seeking opportunities.  These have been described as possibly the largest stadium subsidies ever.

At a deeper level, I think it is also better for NoVa if the DC downtown does not collapse altogether.  But again you don’t have to get into those points.  Even if you could move the stadium at zero cost, the new venue would not create a nominally better experience.

*Who Makes the NBA?*

by  Tyler Cowen in

That is the new book by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, with the subtitle Data-Driven Answers to Basketball’s Biggest Questions.  Most notably, it was written in thirty days with the help of GPT-4.

It’s quite good!  Excerpt:

A statistically significant percentage of sons of NBA players shoot free throws at a higher clip than their fathers.

Jokic, by the way, started off playing water polo, and that is partly why he passes as he does and has such good court vision.  And this:

And the average NBA player shoots free throws 1.5 percentage points lower in clutch moments in playoff games.

Is some of that due to being more tired rather than choking?  On average taller players choke more on free throws, which is perhaps consistent with this hypothesis?  Being very tall, they are less likely to be athletic and well-conditioned, in equilibrium that is?

I really liked this book, kudos to the author(s)!

Who is rising and falling in status in the NBA?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Falling:

Damian Lillard
Jordan Poole
Zion Williamson
Klay Thompson
Andrew Wiggins
Austin Reeves

Rising:

Embiid
Maxey
Porzingis
Haliburton
Curry (not Seth)
Dare I say Kyrie Irving?
Lebron, if that is even possible at this point, he is already GOAT
Greg Popovich
Wemby
Bam Adebayo

That is a lot of status reshuffling, but it seems to be happening pretty quickly and I suspect most of it will stick, with Kyrie Irving maybe still up for grabs.  Others?

When I was over Auren Hoffman’s house, I bet (using play chips only) 70% that either Boston or Denver wins the title this year.