Category: Uncategorized

Computer chess breakthroughs and imitations

This new series of articles, by Dr. Søren Riis, here, and here, and here is of general interest and does not require chess knowledge.  They are an excellent case study in innovation, IP, reverse engineering, incentives to copy, market leadership, and other currently important concepts.  Excerpt:

This program was immediately thought to be a very close derivative of Rybka because its solving of test positions was extremely similar. But, beyond the objective measures of similarity testing, Strelka had to have been a reverse-engineered Rybka derivative because, at the time, a new program of such strength and manifest similarity in its playing style could hardly have come from anywhere else. Thus a very public precedent was established: someone had reverse-engineered a closed-source program with impunity.

Which celebrity chef-branded restaurants are better than others?

William Baude asks:

Is there any way to predict which celebrity-chef-branded restaurants will be better than others?  Obviously one rarely expects such restaurants to be excellent, but there are times (airports, Las Vegas) when a celebrity-chef-branded restaurant may well be the best one around.  Is the best chef likely to endorse the best restaurants?  Or should one look for profligate branders like Wolfgang Puck and Emeril?  Or something else?

When it is “branded” or when simply the genius chef owns and runs a few places (e.g.,  Thomas Keller) is a tricky distinction.  That said, the Wolfgang Puck pizza outlet at O’Hare airport counts as branded, as do many of the fancy places in Las Vegas.  Overall I find these restaurants to be a good bet, conditional on the fact that you are somewhere which encourages the proliferation of branded restaurants.  I haven’t eaten everywhere in O’Hare but odds are if you are by the Puck outlet you should stop and eat there, relative to what you are likely to find and have time for.  The branded outlets in Las Vegas may not be the very best places but again they are fairly wise choices, knowing that just about everywhere is frequented by tourists.  Joel Robuchon’s restaurant in Las Vegas isn’t exactly hated.

Branded restaurants tend to be poor choices when they are offered as a protection against an ethnic food subculture, which maybe is considered inferior by many subgroups but actually is superior.  Yes, Jean-Georges does have a place in Shanghai and probably it is quite good.  Yet you should be out in the street looking for noodles and dumplings, waving your arms in desperation if need be.

My next book — An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies  — is out this coming April.

*Rethinking the Good*, by Larry Temkin

The subtitle is Moral Ideals and the Nature of Practical Reasoning.  Without hesitation I paid full price for this book, in this case $74 though since then the price is falling.  While not an easy read, it is the most important work in choice theory and social choice in some time.

Why does the transitivity debate matter?  If you believe in transitivity, you will see lots of piecemeal improvements as adding up to something desirable.  If you do not believe in transitivity, useful normative inquiries have to be much more global.  You will put less weight on the Pareto principle, and less weight on partial equilibrium cost-benefit analyses.  You will focus on what constitutes a good society, and you will trust some very gross macro comparisons (“America is better than Albania”) more than micro comparisons (“the best system of taxation is X”).

If you are skeptical of transitivity as a postulate, you probably are less inclined to see individuals with intransitive preferences as irrational.  This may affect your views on paternalism and time inconsistency.

Many economists of course view the rejection of transitivity as simply unthinkable.  Perhaps without transitivity we cannot even speak of the notion of a coherent preference.  Temkin is skeptical of transitivity.  There are a few versions of anti-transitivity arguments:

1. A version of Arrow’s theorem will apply to plausible versions of pluralistic moral reasoning, just as it applies to decathlon scoring.  Temkin does not pursue this route, though he notes in the introduction it may be possible.  It is the route I would have preferred, as it makes the investigation more economical.

2. The Sorites paradox, or how many stones make a pile.  Temkin insists his argument does not boil down to the Sorites paradox, though one may add this to the pile of arguments against transitivity.

3. The “roughness” relation: maybe Mozart is roughly as good as Beethoven, but this need not be transitive.  Possibly Haydn is roughly as good as Mozart, but it does not follow that Haydn is necessarily “roughly as good” as Beethoven.  Often judgments about the good are rough by their nature.

4. Various pairwise comparisons lead the transitivity advocate to unacceptable conclusions.  For instance you can start with the view that adding a pain to the world is a bad, and (with intermediate steps), end up having to believe that adding a very very slight pain for a trillion lives is worse than brutally torturing ten people.  Or perhaps you are familiar with Derek Parfit’s Mere Addition Principle.  If you endorse some pairwise comparisons which increase both utility and equality, you can again be led to apparently unpalatable conclusions by some multi-stage comparisons (pdf, it would take a long time to explain here).  Temkin stresses this kind of argument and works through the possible responses in great detail.

The main contribution of this book is to show you that the transitivity postulate is far less intuitively appealing than it seems at first.  Twenty-two years ago I disagreed with Temkin but now I accept much of his critique.  Here is one very good Temkin piece from JSTOR.

These days, I see the good is more holistic than additive-aggregative.  This defuses Temkin’s arguments, though at a high cost.  (You will find Temkin’s criticisms of holism and related ideas at around p.355, though I find them unusually lacking in force.  One of his worries boils down to how a multiplicative view will handle negative numbers but I see the scale as sufficiently arbitrary that they need not pop up to begin with.)  We can make some gross comparisons of better and worse at the macro level, with partial rankings at best, but for many individualized normative comparisons there simply isn’t a right answer.  I view “ranking” as a luxury, occasionally available, rather than an axiomatic postulate which can be used to generate normative comparisons, and thus normative paradoxes, at will.  I see that response as different than allowing or embracing intransitivity across multiple alternatives and in that regard my final position differs from Temkin’s.  Furthermore, in a holistic approach, the “pure micro welfare numbers’ used to generate the paradoxical comparisons aren’t necessarily there in the first place but rather they have to be derived from our intuitions about the whole.

These thoughts provide one reason — though by no means the only reason — why I think so many policy comparisons are not very clear cut, not even in principle, not even if we had better empirics.

My main objection to this book is how it was written.  It is too long and too branching, much like Parfit’s recent volumes.  Temkin notes that Shelley Kagan, a very smart guy, gave him 117 pages of single-spaced comments on a prior manuscript draft.  Temkin took that as an invitation to lengthen the presentation rather than shorten it.

Addendum: If you are interested in these issues, you also should read Leo Katz’s new and fascinating book, more applied than Temkin’s, also rejecting transitivity as a universal principle of reasoning but focused on explaining the content of the law and its apparent paradoxes.

Larry Kotlikoff is running for President

Of the United States.  Here is his web site for his campaign.  Excerpt:

But You Have Never Run for Office or Run a Major Company!

True enough. But I have run Boston University’s Department of Economics and presided over its transformation from one of the worst to one of the best economics departments in the country. I also have run and continue to run a small company called Economic Security Planning, Inc., which produces personal financial planning software. This software was ranked #1 by Money Magazine and has been acclaimed by a long-list of other top publications and media outlets.

Hat tip goes to Peter Coy.

Might schooling raise IQ?

Children who have more schooling may see their IQ improve, Norwegian researchers have found.

Although time spent in school has been linked with IQ, earlier studies did not rule out the possibility that people with higher IQs might simply be likelier to get more education than others, the researchers noted.

Now, however, “there is good evidence to support the notion that schooling does make you ‘smarter’ in some general relevant way as measured by IQ tests,” said study author Taryn Galloway, a researcher at Statistics Norway in Oslo.

Findings from the large-scale study appear in this week’s online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

…In 1955, Norway began extending compulsory middle school education by two years. Galloway and her colleague Christian Brinch, from the department of economics at the University of Oslo, analyzed how this additional schooling might affect IQ.

Using data on men born between 1950 and 1958, the researchers looked at the level of schooling by age 30. They also looked at IQ scores of the men when they were 19.

“The size of the effect was quite large,” she said. Comparing IQ scores before and after the education reform, the average increased by 0.6 points, which correlated with an increase in IQ of 3.7 points for an addition year of schooling, Galloway said.

The summary is here, the paper is here, and for the pointer I thank Michelle Dawson.

The life and times of Gordon Tullock

Here is a new paper by Daniel Houser and Charles K. Rowley (pdf):

Gordon Tullock is a founding father of public choice. In an academic career that has spanned 50 years, he forged much of the research agenda of the public choice program and he founded and edited Public Choice, the key journal of public choice scholarship. Tullock, however did much more than this. This Special Issue of Public Choice honors Gordon Tullock in precisely the manner that he most values: the creation of new ideas across the vast range of his own scholarly interests.

The paper gives a better sense of Tullock the individual than the abstract alone indicates.  Hat tip goes to Andres Marroquin, who all development economists should be following on Twitter.

Assorted links

1. Particle physics developments from 2011,  a busy year.

2. Are we reaching “peak text”?

3. chill.com.

4. Why are there no economists who have turned down British honours?

5. What cities do top musical tracks come from?  And is there now an Uighur [Uyghur] restaurant in Anacostia?  Please let me know if you know more about this, in the comments would be fine.

6. Timothy Snyder critique of Pinker.

Education in India

This is related to our recent discussion of why Indian test scores why so low:

Estimating the precise enrollment of private schools is tricky. Government officials say more than 90 percent of all primary schools are run by or financed by the government. Yet one government survey found that 30 percent of the 187 million students in grades 1 through 8 now attend private schools. Some academic studies have suggested that more than half of all urban students now attend private academies.

In Mumbai, so many parents have pulled their children out of government schools that officials have started renting empty classrooms to charities and labor unions — and even to private schools. In recent years, Indian officials have increased spending on government education, dedicating far more money for new schools, hiring teachers and providing free lunches to students. Still, more and more parents are choosing to go private.

“What does it say about the quality of your product that you can’t even give it away for free?” Mr. Muralidharan said.

Here is much more.