Assorted links
1. Richard Clarida on monetary and fiscal policy, circa 2009.
2. Britain is more Germanic than it thinks, at least since 407 A.D.
3. Erica Grieder on Rick Perry.
4. Good post, but it means a normal-sloping AD curve and two normal blades to the scissors.
5. How the ruble zone collapsed (pdf), very good study, cash shortages along the way.
Will increases in the medium of exchange decrease growth?
*The Institutional Revolution*
The author is Douglas W. Allen and the subtitle is Measurement & the Economic Emergence of the Modern World. I thoroughly enjoyed this excellent book, here is a summary paragraph:
Having consistent weights and measures, like knowing the precise time, allowed for — almost by definition — more accurate and less costly monitoring. The lowered transaction costs of measurement meant that institutions which relied on measurement could be used more effectively. Productivity could be measured in terms of output per unit of time, speeds could be accurately recorded and tracked, commerce could flourish without confusion and error, land and buildings could be surveyed accurately, and fraud could be mitigated. Today, these matters are dealt with easily and to a much tighter standard. Without the ease of measurement, the variability of life would be drastically higher; we would be uncertain about what we were getting and giving in most exchanges.
Allen (p.177) argues that private lighthouses worked well when ships had to hug the coast, but less well when sail power improved and ship routes became more distant and more variable and less tied to port proximity and coast hugging. Also good was the discussion of how Industrial Revolution factories were located in isolated areas to minimize theft costs (pp.214-215), and how this later changed.
The book is due out in December.
New books and notes on China
1. Run of the Red Queen: Government, Innovation, Globalization, and Economic Growth in China, by Dan Breznitz and Michael Murphree. This book argues that China is not on the verge of making major product innovations, but is coming up with a healthy stream of product-cheapening process innovations. Here is a good interview with one of the authors. Reading it is not always a thrill, but it is full of substance and an important book. It provides lots of evidence — from novel corners — for the “China as more decentralized than we think” view.
2. Tom Orlik, Understanding China’s Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities. A very useful book, the title is much more accurate than the last three words of the subtitle. I wish the book had more on believability, however.
3. Aaron L. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. I have yet to read this one.
Here are some interesting estimates:
Data from UBS show China’s bank-sector credit—a measure that includes bank loans and holdings of bonds—as a share of gross domestic product rising from 121% in 2008 to close to 150% in 2010. Taking account of banks’ off-balance-sheet lending, the number is even higher, closer to 180%, and the rate of increase in the last year sharper.
Such a rapid expansion in credit is risky. UBS points out that a 35 to 40 percentage-point increase in the credit-to-GDP ratio of other economies over a five-year period has often coincided with the arrival of a crisis. In China, fault lines in loans to the property sector and local governments are already starting to emerge.
As important, China is getting less growth bang for its credit buck than it used to. From 2003 to 2008, total social finance—a Chinese government measure that includes on- and off-balance-sheet lending by the banks as well as bond and equity issuance—expanded on average by 18% a year, supporting growth in nominal GDP of 17% a year. In 2009 and 2010, finance exploded 33% a year on average, but GDP growth slowed to 12%.
Sentences to ponder
Already, hundreds more American troops have been killed in Afghanistan during the less than three years of the Obama administration than during the eight years of the George W. Bush administration.
Here is more. I don’t think that “# of Americans killed” is a good final standard for right and wrong, still I believe many Americans would be shocked to see this comparison.
Assorted links
1. Should we like Japanese markets in everything?
2. Via Chris F. Masse, legal tender Star Wars coins, coming to Niue.
3. A government-lite proposal for principal reduction.
4. My Economist video, chat with Ryan Avent.
5. What guides how much people pay at pay-what-you-want restaurants?
By the way, Richard Clarida and Jeremy Stein are floated names, and likely nominees, but they haven’t been nominated for the FOMC just yet.
Since the 1980s, spending cuts no longer cause riots
Interestingly, though, since the late 80s, this relationship has broken up and vanished. According to the results, in modern, industrial societies, there is no longer any palpable link between spending cuts and rioting.
In fact there is a correlation in the opposite direction, though it is not statistically significant. Here is much more, about the study which everyone is citing. It doesn’t show what people are saying it shows, unless they see today as like 1926. Arguably the democratization of Eastern Europe is a key factor in changing the results.
Richard Clarida, FOMC nominee
Here is his Wikipedia page. Here is some bio. Here is his 1999 survey on monetary policy. Here is Google Scholar. He is a very wise and very accomplished economist. Here is his piece on what we’ve learned about monetary policy in the last decade, with special reference to the liquidity trap and zero bound. Excerpt:
According to monetary theory, central banks have at least two powerful – and complementary – tools to reflate a depressed economy: printing money and supporting the nominal price of public and private debt. As Bernanke (2002) himself argues, a determined central bank can deploy both tools for as long as it wants regardless of 1) how credible its commitment is and 2) how expectations are formed or 3) how term or default premia are determined. There are two fundamental questions. First, can these tools, aggressively deployed, eventually generate sufficient expectations of inflation so that they lower real interest rates? Forward looking models generally predict that the answer is yes. However, the interplay between monetary policy and the yield curve can become complex when central banks are at the zero lower bound (Bhansali et. al. 2009) and central banks seek to provide a “deflation put.”
Also, as discussed above, given the prominent role that inflation expectations play in inflation dynamics, inflation inertia is the enemy of reflation once deflation sets in. A second question relates to the monetary transmission mechanism itself. In a neoclassical world that abstracts from financial frictions, a sufficiently low, potentially negative real interest rate can trigger a large enough inter-temporal shift in consumption and investment to close even a large output gap. But in a world where financial intermediation is essential, an impairment in intermediation – a credit crunch – can dilute or even negate the impact of real interest rates on aggregate demand. In the limiting case of a true liquidity trap, no level of the real interest rate is sufficient in and of itself to close the output gap and reflate the economy. Credit markets in the U.S. appear at this writing to be bifurcated.
There is more to say about Clarida but I have to run to dinner and the theater!
Basically I see it as that Obama and Bernanke have chosen two academics — two guys who think monetary policy really works, or at least can really work. Odds are, they are Ben’s guys, and in my view that is good news. By the way, Clarida I believe is a Republican.
Addendum: Dylan Matthews has good remarks.
Jeremy Stein, a new FOMC nominee
Stein is one of the most creative contemporary economists, with some truly interesting and first-rate papers in the early to mid 1990s. He has kept up his quality and creativity since then. Most of the early papers are in mid-brow theory, industrial organization, and signaling. Here is one of his very recent papers on macroprudential regulation; it stresses the importance of dynamic bank recapitalization. He is a very smart and still underrated economist; he’s one of the few where I will more or less automatically start reading his papers when I run across them. I have no idea how he would do in the all-important political side of the job. From the paper, an excerpt:
If significant increases in capital ratios have only small consequences for the rates that banks charge their customers, why do banks generally feel compelled to operate in such a highly-leveraged fashion, in spite of the obvious risks this poses? And why do they deploy armies of lobbyists to fight against increases in their capital requirements? By way of contrast, it should be noted that non-financial firms tend to operate with much less leverage than financial firms, and indeed often appear willing to forego the tax (or other) benefits of debt finance altogether. In Kashyap, Stein and Hanson (2010) we argue that the resolution of this puzzle has to do with the unique nature of competition in financial services. Unlike in many other industries, the most important (and in some cases, essentially the only) competitive advantage that banks bring to bear for many types of transactions is the ability to fund themselves cheaply. Thus if Bank A is forced to adopt a capital structure that raises its cost of funding relative to other intermediaries by only 20 basis points, it may lose most of its business. Contrast this with, say the auto industry, where cheap financing is only one of many possible sources of advantage: a strong brand, quality engineering and customer service, and control over labor and other input costs may all be vastly more important than a 20 basis-point difference in the cost of capital.
Here he argues for a very gradual phase-in of tough capital requirements. In this paper he argues for a credit-based channel of monetary transmission, and here. This puts him in an alliance with early Bernanke. Here is his paper on the cyclical effects of Basel capital standards; he has done a lot of work with Anil Kashyap in that area. Here is his overly optimistic paper on the eurozone. In this paper he lays out his generally positive view of the efficacy of monetary policy, with a nod to Hyman Minsky on the debt issue.
The culture that is Takoma Park, Maryland
Takoma Park has 180 speed bumps bumping up across just 2.36 square miles. That’s a lot of speed bumps — roughly 77 per mile.
Here is more. The deadweight loss from a speed bump is perhaps not huge and for that matter not always positive. Nonetheless this is indicative of a broader problem with our approach to governance, and our approach to mobility, or for that matter with our approach to innovation.
Assorted links
The culture that is Germany why the eurozone will fail
A society in Germany which advises on etiquette and social behaviour has called for kissing to be banned in the workplace.
The Knigge Society says the practice of greeting colleagues and business partners with a kiss on the cheek is uncomfortable for many Germans.
The society’s chairman, Hans-Michael Klein, says he has received concerned emails from workers on the issue.
He advises people in the workplace to stick to the traditional handshake.
Speaking to the BBC, he admitted it would be impossible to ban kissing in the workplace outright.
“But we have to protect people who don’t want to be kissed,” Mr Klein added.
“So we are suggesting that if people don’t mind it, they announce it with a little paper message placed on their desk.”
Mr Klein said he had received 50 emails this year alone on the rise of kissing on the cheek – sometimes both cheeks – as a greeting at work.
“People say this is not typical German behaviour,” he said.
“It has come from places like Italy, France and South America, and belongs in a specific cultural context. We don’t like it, they say.”
The society held a meeting on the issue, and carried out a survey of people both on the street and at their seminars, he said.
“Most people said they didn’t like it. They feel there is somehow an erotic aspect to it – a form of body contact which can be used by men to get close to a woman.”
He said there is, in Europe, a “social distance zone” of 60cm (23in) which should be observed.
The Knigge Society, named after the German term for a guide to good manners, is based in a castle 80km from Dortmund in western Germany.
It has reportedly previously ruled on the correct way to end a relationship via text message, and how to deal with a runny nose in public.
The link is here and for the pointer I thank Jacob Levy on Twitter. When the Knigge Society issues its proclamation on the Eurobond idea, I will be sure to let you know.
In German, here are some other Knigge rules, including for soup. Here is their home page. Here is a Knigge quiz: “Wie höflich lieben Sie?” [How politely do you love?] And more tips, including “Wie viel Kinderlärm ist erlaubt?”, buffet rules, and “Dos und Don’ts bei der Baby-Visite.” Here are rules for behaving yourself in 13 different countries, again all in German. For the USA, don’t respond with an elogy to “How are you?”, compliment people on their achievement and teamwork rather than their looks, and “Bedanken Sie sich ständig!”
iPad markets in everything, and fungi too
New York entrepreneur John Vaccaro bought a bunch of Bernie Madoff’s expensive tailored clothing at the federal auction of Madoff’s property in November, 2010, and has resewn them into iPad covers, which he is selling (at rather luxurious prices) through his recently-launched clothing label Frederick James. Vaccaro has estimated that he has enough material to make 31 covers. Perhaps when that runs out, he can start making them from Madoff’s new clothes. Personally I prefer bright orange canvas to dull gray cashmere, anyway. [via CNN]
Here is the link and for the pointer I thank Andrew Zumwalt. From another direction, Jim Swift directs my attention to this iPad app which helps auction off parking spaces.
Via Mark Thorson, here is plants trading with fungi:
Beneath your feet, plants and fungi are exchanging nutrients in a marketplace where generosity is rewarded and cheating punished. The two kingdoms were known to exchange nutrients at root level – now, researchers have shown that they have evolved ways to enforce fair trading.
Animal rights nationalism
I guess they don’t care about the Turkish animals, a funny position for a group with trans-species (but not trans-national?) concerns:
Animal rights activists in Australia have alleged that Australian sheep and cattle are being mistreated in Turkey and stated they will voice their claims at a Senate hearing on Wednesday, an Australian newspaper said on Wednesday.
According to The Australian, animal rights investigators will present fresh claims of sheep and cattle being mistreated in Turkey to Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig on Wednesday ahead of a Senate hearing into the live export industry.
The daily said Animals Australia, a federation of civil society groups that deals with animal welfare and animal rights issues, has new video footage of livestock being handled and slaughtered in ways that breach international animal welfare standards.
The footage was reportedly taken recently after the group went to Turkey to investigate the treatment of Australian animals for the Senate inquiry into the issue and the independent investigation of the trade being carried out by former diplomat Bill Farmer.
According to the report, investigators said they were unable to confirm that animals documented in the footage were Australian, only that Australian livestock was slaughtered at the Turkish facilities.
The Australians who shipped these animals to Turkey seem oddly exempt from criticism, or did the Turks come, sneak across the border, and capture the sheep and cattle with nets?
Imagine further applications of the principle of animal rights nationalism. Should the nations of the South put “(im)migration restrictions” on the birds coming down from the North each wintertime? Some ideas are too silly to contemplate.
For the pointer I thank Ashok Hariharan.
How to make audio books work for you
Stuart Torr asks:
I get an audio book free with my Kindle. Do you have any tips about what type of book works as an audio book? Fiction or non-fiction? Short stories or something like War and Peace?
I would be curious to hear your answers., and also if you have an underlying model of the audiobook experience…
