Peter A. Diamond
Here is Diamond's home page, here is Diamond on Wikipedia. Diamond has been at MIT since 1970 and he is considered one of the bulwarks there, having produced many excellent students, including Bernanke and Andrei Shleifer. Here is the bit of most current interest:
On April 29, 2010, Diamond was announced by Barack Obama as one of three nominees to fill the three vacancies then present on the Federal Reserve Board, along with Janet Yellen and Sarah Bloom Raskin.[5] On August 5 the Senate returned Diamond's nomination to the White House, effectively rejecting his nomination. Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the Fed, was once a student of Diamond.
Some of Diamond's early work was in capital theory, as he outlined the conditions under which, in dynamic growth models, the level of capital could be inefficient. Read this paper, from 1965, which is still his most frequently cited work. It helped produce a standard framework for thinking about national debt and economic growth.
Diamond has contributed plenty to the theory of optimal taxation, in particular when linear commodity taxes are optimal and how to use the tax system for redistribution. See this paper with James Mirrlees (also a Nobel Laureate) and also this one. One implication is that taxing inputs often leads to more distortion than taxing outputs and you can think of this as one possible motivation for a consumption tax.
Here is Diamond's 1982 paper on macro and search theory, which I think of as his most influential. The abstract is classic Diamond:
Equilibrium is analyzed by a simple barter model with identical risk-neutral agents where trade is coordinated by a stochastic matching process. It is shown that there are multiple rational expectations equilibria, with all non-corner solution equilibria inefficient. This implies that an economy with this type of trade friction does not have a unique rate of natural unemployment.
The relationship to the current day U.S. is striking. One point he stresses is that subsidization of production can make sense and also that there can be real costs of converging to the lowest possible rate of unemployment too quickly. This remains an important "framework" paper for analyzing the interaction of search and aggregate demand. His other 1982 search paper implies that labor mobility will be less than is socially optimal. This paper on search theory shows that unemployment compensation can lead to better job matches, by limiting crowding externalities in the job market.
He and Olivier Blanchard wrote a classic piece on the Beveridge Curve, which is about the relationship between job vacacies and the unemployment rate. Some commentators cite the Beveridge Curve as evidence for structural unemployment, although this is controversial.
Diamond has written a great deal on social security, often at the applied level. Here is his paper criticizing social security privatization in Chile for its high costs. Here is his survey on social security reform proposals. Here is his paper on macro and social security reform. Here is a very good European talk he gave on pension issues. Diamond wrote a book with Peter Orszag on social security and he has been a major influence on Democratic Party thinking on this issue; the book looks closely at progressive price indexing rather than wage indexing of benefits. Here is a CBO summary and analysis of the plan. Much of Diamond's more formal social security analysis stresses risk-sharing issues and in general he often points out that social security proposals, including Bush's privatization idea, are not well-grounded in rigorous analysis.
Here Diamond tells us not to expect 7 percent stock returns for the ongoing future.
Diamond has many interests, here is his survey on contingent valuation and whether some number is better to use than no number at all. He and Stiglitz wrote a famous paper on risk and risk aversion.
Personally, my favorite Diamond paper is this short gem on the evaluation of infiinite utlity streams; it will make your head spin, as it asks whether we have coherent means of thinking about prospects with infinite utility and in general how intertemporal utility streams should be ordered. See also his related paper on stationary utility, co-authored with T.J. Koopmans.
Here is his short introduction on behavioral economics.
I think of Diamond as the classic MIT economist, especially of the earlier, pre-Acemoglu generation. Lots of theoretical rigor, though sometimes his theory pieces don't have a simple or simply analytic punchline. There is greater concern with risk, and stability conditions, and dynamic and border conditions, than you would see in a Chicago theory paper. There is a strong emphasis on the ability of government to implement welfare-improving schemes of the sort found in social democracies. The approach is quite technocratic — solve and advise. Public choice and political economy considerations take a back seat. High IQ. Of the MIT economists, he has done the most to pursue the Samuelson tradition of having a universal method and very broad interests. His papers remain central to public finance, welfare economic, intertemporal choice, search theory, macroeconomics, and other areas. His policy impact on social security has been significant.
Addendum: Levitt comments on Diamond.
Peter A. Diamond, Dale T. Mortensen, Christopher A. Pissarides
They are the new winners of the Nobel Prize. I'll be adding updated information for the next hour or two, so if you use RSS please visit the blog's home site for the latest!
This is a prize for search theory and labor markets and job matching, all very important ideas today, especially in the United States. It is a well deserved prize and all authors have produced very well-cited and very influential papers. It is a theory prize, although Diamond in particular also has some empirical papers. I'll write a separate post for each economist.
Maurice Allais
French physicist and economic Nobel Laureate Maurice Allais has died at age 99. Allais is best known among American economists for the Allais paradox but Allais was a polymath with contributions (and JSTOR here) in a huge number of areas many of which were often overlooked because his work was not translated into english (an unfortunate fact which is still true today).
One thing that few people know about Allais was that he was a big proponent of the gold standard and Austrian business cycle theory, even citing Mises and Rothbard in some of his work. See in particular his paper in English, The Credit Mechanism and its Implications (1987) in Feiwel (ed), Arrow and the Foundations of the Theory of Economic Policy. See also here for further citations in french.
As might be expected from a polymath, Allais's views are difficult to pigeonhole. He was a strong proponent of private property and the market economy, for example, but to create the consensus necessary to produce such a society he also favored immigration restrictions and protectionism.
Amazingly, Allais also conducted ground breaking experiments on pendulums which earned him the 1959 Galabert Prize of the French Astronautical Society and which may have revealed an anomaly in general relativity that physicists refer to as the Allais effect.
Assorted links
1. David Byrne selects photos of Detroit, and here is the decline of the Battersea Power Station.
2. Some Friedmanesqe themes in the arts, by me, through the Dallas Fed. At the end I discuss why the Friedmans (circa 1969) seemed to be more optimistic about the West Bank than about Bali.
3. Against (some) arbitrage (pdf).
Why do unions oppose merit pay?
Bryan Caplan asks:
I don't doubt that unions tend to oppose merit pay, but the reasons are unclear. Profit-maximizing monopolists still suffer financially if they cut quality; the same should hold for unionized workers. Why not simply jack average wages 15% above the competitive level, and leave relative wages unchanged?
Or to put the puzzle another way: Once you've secured a raise for all the workers in your union, why prevent employers from offering additional compensation for exceptionally good workers?
Earlier, Megan McArdle considered the topic. One simple model is to invoke the median voter as either ruling the union or constraining it. The implication is that most union members fear they will lose from greater accountability, even if the total size of the pie goes up. As Megan noted, unions are set up to favor the bottom 55 percent of the workers; furthermore productivity can be very unevenly distributed.
Presentation videos
By Glen Weyl, here are two talks, Imperfect Platform Competition and Concordance Among Holdouts. Each video is over an hour long and presents one of Glen's research papers.
Why doesn't every paper have one of these? Is it because most papers don't matter?
Greg Mankiw’s marginal tax rate
Without any taxes, accepting that editor’s assignment would have yielded my children an extra $10,000. With taxes, it yields only $1,000. In effect, once the entire tax system is taken into account, my family’s marginal tax rate is about 90 percent. Is it any wonder that I turn down most of the money-making opportunities I am offered?
By contrast, without the tax increases advocated by the Obama administration, the numbers would look quite different. I would face a lower income tax rate, a lower Medicare tax rate, and no deduction phaseout or estate tax. Taking that writing assignment would yield my kids about $2,000. I would have twice the incentive to keep working.
The full column is here. Perhaps Greg could do more to (legally) evade the estate tax, but that's hardly an argument for raising such a tax.
Alternatively, Dan Ariely asks:
Let’s say that your 1040 came with a little extra stuff: maybe a container with an alcohol content, or perchance something of the chocolate persuasion. What if your tax forms arrived in a gift box with some financial documents on the side? What if the instructions for filling out the form told you to type in your personal information and take a bite of chocolate, type in your W-2 information and drink some of the alcohol, add your deductions and try some of the nuts etc? What if we could live in a world where you actually looked forward filling out these forms?
Assorted links
The Charter 08 document
It helped Liu Xiaobo win a Nobel Peace Prize. Here is one good paragraph of many:
Protection of Private Property. We should establish and protect the right to private property and promote an economic system of free and fair markets. We should do away with government monopolies in commerce and industry and guarantee the freedom to start new enterprises. We should establish a Committee on State-Owned Property, reporting to the national legislature, that will monitor the transfer of state-owned enterprises to private ownership in a fair, competitive, and orderly manner. We should institute a land reform that promotes private ownership of land, guarantees the right to buy and sell land, and allows the true value of private property to be adequately reflected in the market.
Hat tip goes to Matt Yglesias.
How recognizable will humans be in five hundred years?
Alex reports:
Tyler and I argued recently about whether or not humans will be recognizably human in 500 years.
Let us assume that scientific progress continues. My view is that parents don't so much like "difference," unless it is very directly in their favor. Using technology, parents will select for children who are taller, smarter in the way that parents value, better looking, and perhaps also more loyal to their families. The people in the wealthy parts of the world will look more like models and movie stars, but they will be quite recognizable. These children may also be less creative and some of them will be less driven. It's a bit like the real estate market, where everyone wants their house to be special, but not too special, for purposes of resale or in this case mating and career prospects.
Assortative mating can increase the variance of appearance (and other characteristics), but a) assortative mating is not obviously a dominant effect, b) not necessarily doing much over the course of five hundred years, and c) future science is more likely to reverse the boost in variance than to support it. One short person could marry another short person, without having such short children because of genetic engineering.
People will in various ways be cyborgs, but more or less invisibly from the outside at least.
Dogs look different than they did five thousand years ago, but that is because humans controlled their breeding and opted for some extremes. How would they look today if the dogs themselves had been in charge of the process?
Potential markets in everything business plans to bet against
The Lithuanian company Olialia, pronounced "ooh-la-la", is planning a holiday resort in the Maldive islands.
The firm hopes to pull in the tourists by employing only blonde staff, and offering direct flights to the island crewed entirely by blondes, including the pilots.
The article is here and for the pointer I thank Leonard Monasterio.
The culture that is Japan
…a new breed of automated seller has smarts, too–these machines can detect your age and gender and offer drink suggestions accordingly.
The new machines under the Acure brand were recently installed in Tokyo's Shinagawa Station and they're about the size of two refrigerators.
Run by a company under the JR East railway group, the "next-generation drink machines" are imposing enough, but fortunately they don't talk to you. They have cameras that use facial-recognition algorithms to match customers' faces to a database of people types.
When you stand in front of the machine, it takes a second to process your image. It will then recommend some of the roughly 35 drinks displayed on its large touch-screen panel by showing little cartoonish speech bubbles next to them…
At one machine on the main concourse of Shinagawa, I saw a Japanese businessman being offered Coke as a suggested beverage, while a Japanese woman was offered a water-like vitamin drink.
The full story is here and for the pointer I thank Steve Silberman.
Assorted links
The Singularity is Near: Robot with Rat Brain
Tyler and I argued recently about whether or not humans will be recognizably human in 500 years. Some data is provided in this video from Wired Science and more discussion in this paper.
Perhaps most important to note is that the robot with rat brain was created by a proto-cyborg.
Catch a thief from your armchair and win cash
Here is the latest from the UK:
Anyone who owns a laptop computer can now fight crime from the safety of their home and win cash prizes for catching thieves red-handed, under a new British monitoring scheme that went live this week.
The service works by employing an army of registered armchair snoopers who watch hours of CCTV footage from cameras in stores and high street venues across the country.
Viewers can win up to 1,000 pounds ($1,600) in cash a month from Devon-based firm Internet Eyes, which distributes the streaming footage, when offenders are caught in the act.
For the pointer I thank Michael Rosenwald, who has just published a new book on the sports writing of Gay Talese.
From another front, S.S. sends me this link for "the culture that is Britain."