Wednesday assorted links
1. Do LLMs persuade better than humans?
2. Anthropic Economic Index: AI’s Impact on Software Development.
3. For this summer: “This month-long “popup village” is a prototype for Esmeralda, the permanent town they are building 90 minutes north of SF. Edge Esmeralda runs May 24 – June 21 in Healdsburg, just 15 mins from the land they are buying.”
5. The ongoing deterioration of New Zealand inflation targeting (Bloomberg).
What Should Classical Liberals Do?
My little contretemps with Chris Rufo raises the issue of what should classical liberals do? In a powerful essay, C. Bradley Thompson explains why the issue must be faced:
The truth of the matter is that the Conservative-Libertarian-Classical Liberal Establishment gave away and lost an entire generation of young people because they refused to defend them or to take up the issues that mattered most to them, and in doing so the Establishment lost America’s young people to the rising Reactionary or Dissident Right, by which I primarily mean groups such as the so-called TradCaths or Catholic Integralists and the followers of the Bronze Age Pervert. (See my essay on the reactionary Right, “The Pajama-Boy Nietzscheans.”)
I do not think Mr. Rufo would disagree with me on this point, but he has not quite made it himself either (at least not as far as I know), so I will make it in my own name.
The betrayal, abandonment, desertion, and loss of America’s young people by conservative and libertarian Establishmentarians can be understood with the following hypothetical.
Imagine the plight of, let us say, a 23-year-old young man in the year 2016. Imagine that he’s been told every single day from kindergarten through the end of college that he’s racist, sexist, and homophobic by virtue of being white, male, and heterosexual. Further imagine that he was falsely diagnosed by his teachers in grade school with ADD/ADHD and put on Ritalin because, well, he’s an active boy. And then his teachers tell him when he’s 12 that he might not actually be a boy, but rather that he might be a girl trapped in boy’s body. And let us also not forget that he’s also been told by his teachers and professors that the country his parents taught him to love was actually founded in sin and is therefore evil. To top it all off: he didn’t get into the college and then the law school of his choice despite having test scores well above those who did.
In other words, what this oppressed and depressed young man has experienced his whole life is a cultural Zeitgeist defined by postmodern nihilism and egalitarianism. These are the forces that are ruining his life and making him miserable.
Let’s also assume that said young man is also temperamentally some kind of conservative, libertarian, or classical liberal, and he interns at the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, or the Institute for Humane Studies hoping to find solace, allies, and support to give relief to his existential maladies.
And how does Conservatism-Libertarianism Inc. respond to what are clearly the dominant cultural issues of our time?
Well, the Establishment publishes yet another white paper on free-market transportation or energy policy. The Heritage Foundation doubles down on more white papers on deficits and taxation policy. The Cato Institute churns out more white papers on legalizing pot and same-sex marriage. The Institute for Humane Studies goes all in to sit at the cool kids’ lunch table by ramping up its videos on spontaneous order featuring transgender 20-somethings.
Is it any wonder that today’s young people who have suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune are stepping outside the arc of history yelling, “stop”? At a certain point, these young people let out a collective primal scream, shouting “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.” And when the “youf” (as they refer to themselves online) realized that Establishment conservatives and libertarians did not hear them and lacked the vocabulary, principles, power, and courage to defend them from their Maoist persecutors, they went underground to places like 4chan, 8chan, and various other online discussion boards, where they found a Samizdat community of the oppressed.
Having effectively abandoned late-stage Millennials and Gen Z, Conservatism and Libertarianism Inc. should not be surprised, then, that today’s young people who might be otherwise sympathetic to their policies have left that world and become radicalized. News flash: Gen Z is attracted to people who are willing to defend them and attack social nihilism and egalitarianism in all their forms.
Hence the rise of what I call the “Fight Club Right,” which calls for a new kind of American politics. Gen Z rightism is done with what they call the Boomer’s “fake and ghey” attachment to the principles of the Declaration of Independence and the institutions of the Constitution. In fact, many young people who have migrated to the reactionary Right have openly and repeatedly rejected the principles of the American founding as irrelevant in the modern world.
More to the point, this younger generation is done with the philosophy of losing. They’re certainly done with the Establishment. They also seem to be done with classical liberalism and the American founding. (This is a more complicated topic.) Instead, what they want is political power to punish their enemies and to take over the “regime.” They want to use the coercive force of the State to create their new America.
…Conservatism and Libertarianism Inc. seemed utterly oblivious to the fact that the Left had pivoted and changed tactics after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989. By the 1990s, the Left had abandoned economic issues and the working class and was doubling down on cultural issues. Rather than trying to take over the trade-union movement, for instance, the postmodern Left went for MTV and the Boy Scouts, while the major DC think tanks on the Right went for issues too distant from the lives of young people such as the deficit, taxation, and regulatory policy.
While socialism continues to be the end of the Left, the means to the end is postmodern nihilism. That’s where the Left planted its flag and that’s the terrain that it has occupied without opposition, whereas conservative and libertarian organizations such as the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute were fighting for ideological hegemony in the economic realm. Between 2000 and 2025, cultural nihilism and its many forms and manifestations is where the action is and has been for a quarter century. So powerful has postmodern nihilism become that even some left-wing “libertarian” organizations have simply become left-wing.
What should I ask Annie Jacobsen?
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:
Annie Jacobsen (born June 28, 1967) is an American investigative journalist, author, and a 2016 Pulitzer Prize finalist. She writes for and produces television programs, including Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan for Amazon Studios, and Clarice for CBS. She was a contributing editor to the Los Angeles Times Magazine from 2009 until 2012.
Jacobsen writes about war, weapons, security, and secrets. Jacobsen is best known as the author of the 2011 non-fiction book Area 51: An Uncensored History of America’s Top Secret Military Base, which The New York Times called “cauldron-stirring.”[ She is an internationally acclaimed and sometimes controversial author who, according to one critic, writes sensational books by addressing popular conspiracies.
I very much liked her book Nuclear War: A Scenario. Do read the Wikipedia entry for a full look at what she has written. So what should I ask her?
Who is rising and falling in status?
That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one brief excerpt, not unfamiliar to MR readers:
As great apes, we obsess over the social hierarchy. Who is being praised and who is being excoriated? Who is hot and who is not?
That may sound like gossip, but it is also a big part of our politics. If politics is fundamentally about the way we human beings organize ourselves—or, put another way, how we build and wield power—then status is the ultimate coin of the realm.
And here are some judgments about who is rising in status:
Alan Garber: The president of Harvard has said no to Trump’s demands, and the Trump administration seems to have backed down. They announced that the demands on Harvard were put and sent in a letter by mistake. Whether or not that is the true story, you have to say Garber won this round. But as is always the case, a future spill may yet be in the cards, for instance if further legal wrongdoing is discovered in the university.
Canadians: They are running two decent candidates for prime minister. Furthermore, they were able to get Trudeau out of the race and replace him with Mark Carney without the Liberal Party falling apart, or a weak candidate forcing his or her way to the front. Opposition to becoming the 51st state has given the whole country a dose of additional mojo. To keep this gain, though, they now have to translate that fervor into a much stronger economy. We will see if they manage this, but so far the place is on the upswing in terms of status.
Greenlanders: They are now the center of world attention, and I don’t see much evidence of them saying stupid things. They are making overtures to the United States and not burning their bridges to Denmark, while making it clear they desire eventual independence. Ideally they can play Denmark and the United States off each other, and arrive at a future where the United States shows up with a positive and dynamic plan for developing the nation and making them all millionaires. The chance of that is rising long-term, even if the current Trump rhetoric has turned into a public relations nightmare for the United States. Kudos to them.
The bond market: You can’t take its loyalty for granted. The evidence suggests its temporary collapse played a central role in getting Trump to reverse some of his worst trade policies.
The U.S. judicial system: It has stood up to Trump repeatedly, even with SCOTUS having a 6–3 Republican-appointed majority. Some Trump supporters are upset at the courts, but the overall repute of the judiciary—among conservatives as well as liberals—has been rising.
Daniel Lurie: The new mayor of San Francisco took office in January of this year. He inherited and then helped along a trend of falling crime rates and rising public order. The city is much nicer and safer; I saw it with my own eyes a mere month ago. He is going to get the credit if this trend continues, just as Rudy Giuliani did. He is doing good things, but this is also a story of being in the right place at the right time. Fame is not always a fair mistress.
I also consider those who are falling in status.
Markets in everything
- Authorities alleged Vong essentially rented out his U.S. identity to developers based in China who used it to get more than a dozen remote tech jobs, some of which involved contract work for sensitive government agencies.
A 40-year-old Maryland man is facing decades in prison after he allegedly worked with foreign nationals in China to get remote work IT jobs with at least 13 different U.S. companies between 2021 and 2024. The jobs paid him more than $970,000 in salary for software development tasks that were actually performed by operatives authorities allege are North Korean and working out of a post in Shenyang, China, according to the Department of Justice.
Here is the full story, via William.
Tuesday assorted links
1. o3 beats master geoguesser. And GPT as therapist.
2. “To support our work in analyzing AI’s economic impacts, we’re pleased to announce the formation of the Anthropic Economic Advisory Council. This group of distinguished economists will provide input on new areas of research for our Economic Index.” Link here, I am happy to be a member.
3. The secret liberalization of animal drugs. See also Alex here.
4. Designing Human-AI Collaboration: A Sufficient-Statistic Approach.
5. Kaleb bets against the gorilla.
6, Abundance is now a #1 bestseller.
7. “So I’m going to govern in econometrics.” I am not as reassured by this as are many people I know.
Slovakia/Portugal fact of the day
In 2024, Slovakia accepted 100% of its asylum applicants; Portugal accepted 0% of its asylum applicants.https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/migration-2024
Via a number of people in a chain. The link has further details of interest.
In defense of an online life
That is a recent piece of mine at The Free Press (it has been great fun writing there by the way). Here is one excerpt:
Why do I spend so much of my time with email, group chats, and also writing for larger audiences such as Free Press readers? I ask myself that earnestly, and I have arrived at a pretty good answer. I believe that by spending time online I will meet and befriend a collection of individuals around the world, who are pretty much exactly the people I want to be in touch with. And then I will be in touch with them regularly.
I call them “the perfect people for me.”
I recognize that many of these communications are online, and thus they are “thinner” than many more local, face-to-face relationships. Yet I do end up meeting most of these people, and with great pleasure. That, in turn, enhances the quality of the online communications. And frankly, if forced to choose, I would rather have thinner relationships with “the perfect people for me” than regular bear hugs and beer guzzlings with “people who are in the 87th percentile for me.”
The internet, in other words, has invented a new means of human connection, characterized by “the perfect people for me.” For me, it’s people who are into analytical thinking and tech and AI and music and economics, and much more. For others? It can be Survivor obsessives or vegans or knitters or Survivor obsessives who are vegan and love to knit. The point is that there is a niche for all 8 billion of us. And now we know where to find each other.
And it turns out we value that very, very highly. So highly that we are willing to obsess over our little devices known as smartphones.
Recommended, especially to those who read things on-line.
Monday assorted links
1. The evolution of rattlesnake venom.
2. In 2022, for better or worse, it was the American public who supported masks on planes.
3. “Yields on short-term government debt have dipped into negative territory in recent days as traders bet that the Swiss National Bank will respond with interest rate cuts. Two-year Swiss yields, which reflect expectations for interest rates, traded marginally below zero on Friday.” From the FT.
4. The research on fluoride and IQ.
The Political Economy of Protective Labor Laws for Women
From a new NBER working paper:
During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws restricting women’s labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we investigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men’s desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory’s predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence.
That is by Matthias Doepke, Hanno Foerster, Anne Hannusch, and Michèle Tertilt.
The Public Choice Outreach Conference
There are just a few spots left for the Public Choice Outreach Conference! Do encourage your students to apply!
Spain fact of the day
Spain’s grid ran entirely on renewable energy for the first time on April 16, with wind, solar, and hydro meeting all peninsular electricity demand during a weekday. Five days later, solar set a new record, generating 20,120 MW of instantaneous power – covering 78.6% of demand and 61.5% of the grid mix.
Here is the full article.
Addendum: Here is a sequel report, in Spanish, via Mario. And in English.
USA fact of the day
In a striking demonstration of conservative financial positioning amidst global market uncertainty, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a staggering $300.87 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, accounting for an estimated 4.89% of the entire T-bill market, according to Berkshire’s latest financial reports.
Here is the full story.
Hungary fact of the day
Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago. #demography #fertility #Hungary
That is from Csaba G. Tóth, via Noah Smith.