“Small steps toward a much better world”

First, better than what? I suppose it’s better than the world we have now; but then the “world” of the slogan is not a whole possible world, which would persist throughout time, but rather a temporal segment or slice of a possible world. We don’t now “have” a whole world; what we have is the present time-slice of the world. Or you might say that what we have is the whole past-and-present–the temporal segment of the world from the Beginning to Now; but this would be less suitable for comparison with what you are striving toward, so I will assume that the present time-slice or “state-of-affairs” is the intended standard of comparison.

Then the target is a better (momentary) state-of-affairs rather than a better whole possible world, or a better whole future. Now, the latter, not the former, should be your ultimate or most basic objective; but, admittedly, it might be acceptable tactically to aim at the former. That is, in order to maximize the value of the whole future–which should be the aim–you might aim for “a much better (momentary) state-of-affairs,”to come into being at some point in the future.

And what point might that be; when is the much better state-of-affairs supposed to come into existence? That is being left indefinite (though,presumably, sooner is better than later).

I interpret “steps toward a (particular) state-of-affairs” as actions (perhaps mere “speech acts”) that make that state-of-affairs more probable. But these actions may also have other effects that ought to be considered, such as making some other state-of-affairs–perhaps quite a bad one–more probable. This points up a serious deficiency: the slogan is blind to risk, failing to incorporate hedging. The circumstance that a certain step that is “toward” a better state-of-affairs (i.e., that makes it more probable) is at the same time also “toward” a worse one should dampen your enthusiasm for taking the step; this is not reflected in the slogan.

There are probably infinitely many possible states-of-affairs, but for expository purposes let me pretend that the number is finite–say, a million. Let us rank these by value. The best will be S1, the worst S1,000,000 (I’ll ignore ties); the actual present state-of-affairs is somewhere in between–say, S100,000. {As you can see, this email program is incapable of representing the numbers as subscripts.}  

There is, for each of these possible states-of-affairs, some probability that it will eventually become actual, given what we have now. The slogan endorses actions that will increase the probability of one of these states-of-affairs–call it ‘Sn’. But this favored possible state-of-affairs is not specified as S1, the best of them. Indeed, I assume n ≠ 1, since the slogan says “much better” rather than “best.” Since Sn is to be better than S100,000, we have 1 < n < 100,000, and since it is much better it must be closer to 1 than to 100,000; let us say 1 < n < 30,000. But beyond this it is completely obscure what  n is or how it was selected. If n is, say, 10,189, you are aiming to make the eventual occurrence of S10,189 more probable. But the motivation for doing precisely this is hardly evident.

Finally, the “small steps” phrase is, presumably, intended as an expression of modesty. But why limit yourself to small steps? If you can take big steps to improve matters, do it! On the other hand, why restrict yourself to optimism? If you can make the world better, of course, do it; but maybe things appear likely to get worse, no matter what you do. You might even find yourself in a situation where there are no steps you can take “toward” Sn for any n < 100,000, perhaps because Prob (Sn/A) = 0, for any n < 100,000 and any possible action A (given that we are in S100,000). It would be well to cover this possibility, too, by presenting yourself as stepping toward the best (in this case, least bad) possible future.

My proposal for reform, then, is simply to advertise yourselves as intending to act in ways that promote maximum expected value throughout the future; in short: “Acting to maximize expected future value.” (If that’s not your intention, why not?)

The bottom line: I believe that James is a kindred spirit and that he indeed lives "Small steps toward a much better world."

The Cowen experiment

Not every country is opting for fiscal stimulus:

Ireland's prime minister announced €2 billion ($2.57 billion) in
public-spending cuts on Tuesday, saying the country desperately needs
to shore up its battered public finances. Also Tuesday, the Polish
government approved a contingency plan to trim public spending by 19.7
billion zlotys ($5.65 billion). The budget cuts come even as other
countries are boosting spending to juice their economies.

Speaking to the Irish parliament, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said
the bulk of this year's cuts — some €1.4 billion — would come in the
form of increased pension levies on public-sector employees. That is
effectively a pay cut for those workers. Mr. Cowen also pressed forward
with tax increases for higher-income workers and second-home owners.

I'll let you know how it goes.  A few things are worth noting.  First, a small open economy has a harder time making fiscal stimulus work.  Second, a small open economy often has to worry more about its credit rating.  Third, a small open economy offers a tougher testing ground for macroeconomic "field experiments" because there are more confounding external factors.

Tax break for homebuyers?

I'm not sure I understand the proposal, but here is what the NYT says:

The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package
with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision
championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.

Like Arnold Kling, I wish to shift the economy out of housing, not into it again. I also believe that the supply of homes is relatively elastic right now.  The tax credit will subsidize the new buyers without propping up the price of homes.  Demand will go up, supply will go up, price will stay more or less on the same trajectory, and banks won't be any healthier.  The subsidy goes to new home buyers and why should we be helping them above all others?  Aren't they relatively wealthy on average?  (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)  Aren't some of them the dreaded "flippers" and speculators for that matter?  (Can we really enforce the primary residence requirement?)  Do we really want to push people into being less diversified and less geographically mobile in the labor market?  And here's Alex's post from earlier today.

There's a whole other debate you could have on whether we should be encouraging people to buy outputs which are already produced.

So far I say boo to the Republicans.  It could be I don't understand the proposal; if that is so please correct me in the comments.  Here are further discussions of what is going on.

Sentences to ponder

From the ponder-worthy Felix Salmon:

Ray Pellecchia
is right: if Harry Markopolos had taken all of his evidence about
Bernie Madoff and put it on a blog, instead of submitting it to the
SEC, there's a good chance that would have been the end of Madoff right
there.
All the time Markopolos was talking to the WSJ, trying to get them to
run a story about Madoff, would have been much better spent setting up
an anonymous WordPress blog and just putting the information and
analysis out there himself

The difficulties of a housing stimulus

Ed Olsen, one of the nation's foremost housing experts, points out that it's much harder to stimulate housing than many people think because you have to take into account the rental market.

The primary effect of many proposals directed at the housing market would be to decrease the demand for rental units by about the same amount as they would increase the demand for owner-occupied units. This would be the effect of the proposed tax credits or loans at below-market interest rates to new homebuyers.

 …The impact of preventing foreclosures on housing prices is overstated for the same reason. The overwhelming majority of families who default on their mortgages move to another unit that they do not share with others. Therefore, preventing foreclosures would have little effect on the total demand for dwelling units and hence little overall effect on market prices.

 …Subprime mortgages did induce some people to buy houses beyond their means, and foreclosures would decrease the demand for the types of houses bought by these people. This would decrease the prices of similar houses. However, when they default on their mortgages, the families involved move to more modest houses or apartments, thereby increasing the demand for other types of units in other locations and the prices of units of these types. Preventing foreclosures would lead to higher prices for some properties and lower prices for others.

Read the whole thing (doc).

Odd terms

Isn't it funny how they call them the "toxic assets"?  OK, a lot of them aren't worth very much.  But would it not be better to speak of the "toxic liabilities"?  This may sound like a semantic point, but the toxic assets terminology breeds the idea that the mere creation of a "bad bank," built from these assets, will boost the financial system.  It won't.

Overpaying for the toxic assets is another matter entirely.  Yves Smith, by the way, has a good critique of current bank aid proposals and of course Paul Krugman has been making related arguments.  The frightening thing is that many brilliant people — such as those on the Obama team — think this is the best we can do, all constraints taken into account.  We'll see, as they say.

The other development is the proposal to limit executive pay to $500,000 for any bank taking "large amounts" of bailout funds; maybe that is the secret plan for keeping the bailout plan affordable.  The drawback is that it discourages relatively healthy banks from using the funds to buy out the sick banks which, although it sounds inappropriate, is actually one of the better chances for making the program work.

Did the stimulus bill just fail?

Sort of, or so says The Washington Post.  Apparently some of the moderate Democrats are not on board and there is talk of cutting it by as much as $200 billion.  David Leonhardt has an insightful column, which examines the dual claims that the bill was too small and not well-enough targeted.  I wonder if this is a case where some people (though not I) might have double-peaked preferences, namely that the bill should either be much larger, or if not simply smaller to hold down the deficit.

Overall I am surprised that the bill didn't sail through.  I expected one round of opposition and then a collapse as extra goodies were put on the Xmas tree for recalcitrant legislators.  The political equilibrium now seems trickier than that and I believe that, for better or worse, Obama's "honeymoon" period is now over.

I am surprised no one has complained about this yet

MissMarketCrash sent this along to me:

The climate is warm, there's no shortage of exotic food, and the cost of living is rock bottom. That's IBM (NYSE: IBM)'s
pitch to the laid-off American workers it's offering to place in India.
The catch: Wages in the country are pennies-on-the-dollar compared to
U.S. salaries.

Under a program called Project Match, IBM will help workers laid off
from domestic sites obtain travel and visa assistance for countries in
which Big Blue has openings. Mostly that's developing markets like
India, China, and Brazil.

NB: The program is limited to "satisfactory performers."

What I read some time ago

But they're all coming out this book season and thus I tell you about them now:

1. Peter Leeson, The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates.

2. Frank H. Buckley, Fair Governance: Paternalism and Perfectionism; a critique of "Nudge" and soft paternalism.

3. Denis Dutton, The Art Instinct: Beauty, Pleasure, and Human Evolution.

There's also another good book on Samuel Johnson, which is what I have been reading, in addition to the new translation of The Canterbury Tales.

Markets in everything (hardly anything)

From the former Soviet Union, markets in burnt out light bulbs:

For most of us, it is hard to fathom the rationale for a market in burnt-out light bulbs. But in the scarcity-driven Soviet economy, the market was entirely reasonable. Light bulbs were rarely available to individual consumers, but were obtainable for state-sponsored activities. Thus, it would be difficult to purchase a light bulb for a new lamp in one's home, while burnt-out bulbs in state-run offices or factories were routinely replaced. So if someone purchased a new lamp and needed a bulb, he would buy a used light bulb for a small fee and replace a functioning bulb at work with the dud. He would then take the functioning bulb home for the new lamp, while the burnt-out bulb at the office/factory would be replaced with a new functioning bulb. Meanwhile, the maintenance person at the office/factory would take the used bulb and sell it on the used light bulb market.

I thank Eric W. for the pointer.

Addendum: But from Singapore, no legal organ selling any time soon.

Shhh…………….

Robin Hanson writes:

In particular, the more public attention we give to the stimuli,
the less they might work.  We might make people realize that they need
to compensate via saving, and the more we scare folks into thinking we
need a huge stimuli, the more we might scare them away from normal
economic activity levels. So should we stop explaining macro-economics during this crisis, and stop saying how desperately we need a stimuli?

From now on…Markets in Everything!  All day, every day…

Obama nominee pulls out over tax trouble

Which one?  I am more than willing to grant that not every nominee deserves to be appointed to rule over me.  But I'm also worried about the incentives we are producing by applying tougher standards.  Knocking out the caught cheaters won't make all the DC people honest or virtuous.  The long run effect is to select for people who have known — from the very beginning — that they seek power and who are willing to pay money to the taxman to keep that option alive.  We are selecting for people who are very good at covering up their misdeeds.  We're selecting for honest people too.  There's lots of posturing on this issue, but I'm not sure whether the net effect of the crackdown is positive, once you take all these selection effects into account.  There's something to be said for selecting people who are relatively bad at cover-ups. 

There's also something to be said for increasing the wages paid to top appointees, as they do in Singapore.  That would encourage more tax compliance without just selecting for the power seekers.