Emergent Ventures winners, 41st cohort
Claire Wang, Cambrige, Mass. whole brain emulation.
Minji Kim, high school, Seoul, to build a running app.
Collin Juurako, Vancouver, UBC, cryobiology.
Stevie Miller, Carnegie Mellon, to write for Works in Progress, general career development.
Ruhan Khanna and Louis Merriam, WDC Sidwell high school, to decipher the Indus script.
Marwa Mattaii and Anush Mutyala, Vancouver UBC, for a student-run nanofab.
Malhar Manek, University of Chicago, Mumbai, general career support.
Lan Dao, San Francisco, a non-profit for artificial wombs.
Adam Jarvis, in support of @teortaxes, Palmerston North, NZ, and Argentina, @teortaxes trip to the Bay Area.
Ashley Mo, Toronto, and Aoi Otani, Cal Tech and Harvard, biomedical innovation.
Raahim Lone, Saudi Arabia, Eastern province, Al Khobar, background Pakistan, sophomore in high school, a query optimizer to reduce database latency.
Matt Faherty, New Platz, NY, study of the National Science Foundation.
Mehran Jalali, San Francisco, doing LIDAR of Mesoamerica.
Mark Lutter, Washington, DC, American free cities and governance.
Sulaiman Ghori, San Francisco, Khan Space Industries, self-replicating space probes.
Arc Prize, Greg Kamradt, San Francisco, measuring AI progress.
Nucleate DoJo, and Iris Sun, toward a house and other support for biomedical researchers.
Daragh Jordan, Galway, Ireland, AI to manage social media feeds.
Abe Callard, San Diego/Chicago/Japan, to make a movie about conversation.
Epoch AI, and Jaime Sevilla, Madrid and remote work, AI safety and measurement.
Again, here is the AI engine, built by Nabeel Qureshi, for searching through the longer list. Here are previous cohorts of EV winners.
The election in Greenland
Greenland’s centre-right opposition has won a surprise general election victory – in a vote dominated by independence and US President Donald Trump’s pledge to take over the semi-autonomous territory.
The centre-right Demokraatit party – which favours a gradual approach to independence from Denmark – achieved around 30% of the vote, near-complete results show…
Five of the six main parties in the election favour independence from Copenhagen, but disagree over the pace with which to reach it…
The Democratic party, whose vote was up by more than 20% on 2021, is considered a moderate party on independence.
Another opposition party, Naleraq, which is looking to to immediately kick-off the independence process and forge closer ties with the US, was on course for second place with almost a quarter of the vote.
The two current governing parties, Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) and Siumut, are heading for third and fourth place – marking an upset for Prime Minister Mute B Egede.
Here is more from the BBC.
Wednesday assorted links
1. Lydia Polgreen on Dubai and migration (NYT, a good series from her, ongoing).
2. Open Philanthrpy is starting an Abundance and Growth program.
3. New Will MacAskill project.
4. Co-Reader.
5. “One in four new recruits to the German armed forces drops out within six months of joining, according to the nation’s military watchdog who warned that personnel shortages were pushing troops “to breaking point”.” (FT)
6. Martin Casado on AGI and employment.
Visits to the Doctor, Per Year
The number of times people visit the doctor per year varies tremendously across OECD countries from a low of 2.9 in Chile to a high of 17.5 (!) in Korea. I haven’t run the numbers officially but it doesn’t seem that there is much correlation with medical spending per capita or life expectancy.
Data can be found here.
Hat tip: Emil Kirkegaard on X.
Model this, child care vs. college costs
The cost of child care now exceeds the price of college tuition in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to a new analysis conducted by the Economic Policy Institute.
The left-leaning think tank, based in Washington, D.C., used 2023 federal and nonprofit data to compare the monthly cost of infant child care to that of tuition at public colleges.
The tally increased five states since the pandemic began. EPI’s last analysis relied on 2020 data, which showed child care costs outstripped college costs in 33 states and Washington, D.C., said EPI spokesperson Nick Kauzlarich.
The organization released a state-by-state guide on Wednesday showing the escalating cost of child care. Average costs range from $521 per month in Mississippi to as much as $1,893 per month in Washington, D.C., for households with one 4-year-old child, EPI found.
Here is the full story, via Anecdotal.
The Curious Surge of Productivity in U.S. Restaurants
We document that, after remaining almost constant for almost 30 years, real labor productivity at U.S. restaurants surged over 15% during the COVID pandemic. This surge has persisted even as many conditions have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Using mobile phone data tracking visits and spending at more than 100,000 individual limited service restaurants across the country, we explore the potential sources of the surge. It cannot be explained by economies of scale, expanding market power, or a direct result of COVID-sourced demand fluctuations. The restaurants’ productivity growth rates are strongly correlated, however, with reductions in the amount of time their customers spend in the establishments, particularly with a rising share of customers spending 10 minutes or less. The frequency of such ‘take-out’ customers rose considerably during COVID, even at fast food restaurants, and never went back down. The magnitude of the restaurant-level relationship between productivity and customer dwell time, if applied to the aggregate decrease in dwell time, can explain almost all of the aggregate productivity increase in our sample.
That is from a new paper by
Political markets in everything, Steak ‘n Shake edition
Check it out here.
Tuesday assorted links
1. More on stablecoins going mainstream (FT).
2. Kevin Drum, one of the all-time great bloggers, RIP.
3. Bioethicists, on average, are worse than astrologers. Much worse.
4, Mark Carney wants to eliminate the consumer carbon tax and replace it with a carbon tax on imports?
5. Scott Sumner reviews George Selgin on the New Deal.
6. Some skepticism about a Microsoft quantum computing breakthrough.
Kevin Drum, RIP
Kevin Drum was one of the OG bloggers. I never met him IRL but we know from Ibelin that that is no bar to being friends. One thing I learned from Ayn Rand is that virtue should be rewarded, not just sin punished. That’s one reason why we shouldn’t wait until someone has passed to praise their goodness. I’m glad I wrote to Kevin many years ago:
Kevin,
Thanks for your excellent blogging! I am always pleased when you link to one of my posts. I appreciate the attention, of course, but especially so because agree or disagree you have always read me fairly. Many bloggers look for the weakest or worst way that a post can be interpreted so that they can score cheap points. In contrast, I’ve always seen you take on an author’s strongest arguments. I appreciate that. Knowing how honestly and perceptively you treat my posts has also made me more attentive to all of your blogging which I read daily.
Best
Alex Tabarrok
Sentences to ponder
The daughters of immigrants enjoy higher absolute mobility than daughters of locals in most destinations, while immigrant sons primarily enjoy this advantage in countries with long histories of immigration.
That is from a new and very interesting paper by Leah Boustan, et.al. You have pondered the implied policy recommendations, right?
Visiting the New Jersey shore
Did you know that the rest of the country (world?) calls it “the beach”? New Jerseyans call it “the shore.” (Why?)
While growing up, my mother would take my sister and me to the New Jersey shore for a week, each summer. My father would drive down and visit, but he was too much of a workaholic and too antsy to stay for long.
One of the first things you learn, living in The Great NJ, is that each and every town has its own identity. It feels quite different from the next town over, and has an individualized history and often a quite different ethnic mix. Before I knew any other social science, I learned that place really matters. And hovering at the horizon is the NYC skyline, a regular reminder that things can change rather quickly once you cross a line, in this case taking a bus across a river. I started thinking about “invisible borders” seriously and at a young age. Later, in high school, the kids were from either Hillsdale (my town), or from River Vale, one town over. We thought of them as the “wuss kids.”
So just about everyone is a regional thinker, and in New Jersey your “region” refers to your town or maybe county, not to the state.
This importance of place is true of shore towns as well. We spent time in various locales:
Asbury Park: This was early on, and I barely have memories of it. We decided it was “a dump,” and had seen better days. It had once been a glamour spot of sorts, with dance halls and gazebos. Later in life I would go back there for some of the older architecture, Bruce Springsteen landmarks, and Puerto Rican food.
Ocean Grove: The place we went when we were young. This town has fantastic Victorian homes, and an unusual role in the American history of religious revival camps. Holly and called it an “old people’s town.” Plus there was no boardwalk and everything was closed on Sundays. The ocean was wonderful and the walks were easy, but we always wanted to be somewhere else.
Point Pleasant: I haven’t been in so long, but I think of this as one of the most typical and representative of New Jersey shore towns. Holly and I were OK with this place.
Seaside Heights: This for us was the best, especially for my sister. It had lots of other young people, an active, retro-flavored boardwalk (I loved that game where you throw the ball up and try to have it land in the right slots for points), and the ocean water seemed rougher in a fun way. Eventually we settled on going here each year. Later the setting for Jersey Shore, the TV show.
I also went to some chess tournaments in Atlantic City (pre-gambling, quite run down), where I did very well, and when we were all grown we would meet up in Spring Lake, which is perhaps the actual nice shore town. Belmar and Cape May also received earlier visits, and we would stop for root beer in Toms River.
Even in the early days it was exciting to drive from one town to the next, like in Europe crossing from Germany into Luxembourg.
I did a lot of reading on the beach, for instance tackling both LOTR and Karl Popper’s Open Society books. In later years, Holly would be off with friends, and my mother and I would drive around, listening to Beatle songs on a weird 8-track tape that split up the songs when it changed tracks.
So early on I learned the idea of “local travel,” namely that a nearby trip can be no less fascinating. I consider that one of the most important practical ideas you can imbibe, along with “regional thinker.” I got them both quite young, and in a very convincing fashion.
GPT 4.5 on this blog
be me
be Marginal Revolution
daily links posted
commenters debating obscure economic theories
someone mentions Baumol’s cost disease
half the commenters triggered, half delighted
Tyler posts cryptic sentence about food trucks
“markets in everything” intensifies
realize you just spent two hours reading about medieval grain prices
mfw economics was the real marginal revolution all along
Monday assorted links
1. A new and thorough Manus report. And Manus would be a huge liability risk in the United States. And yup. And double yup, when will the NYT cover Manus? And from the Manus founder.
2. Stephen Kotkin on Trump and Ukraine (New Yorker). So far one of the best pieces this year.
4. Which economists will be replaced by AIs? (lots of them)
5. On the Douthat-Rufo dialogue.
7. At first I thought this was a joke: comedy club bans audience members with botox.
US AID, current status
After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID.
The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States. In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department.
That is from Marco Rubio. Here is my earlier post on US AID.
What should I ask Chris Dixon?
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him. Chris is a managing partner at Andreessen-Horowitz, and has recently published Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet. Here is Chris on Wikipedia. Here is Chris on Twitter. Chris has some writings on his home page.
So what should I ask him?