Thursday assorted links

1. Comment directly on top of arXiv links.

2. Latent polarization, based on values clusters.

3. Reading scrolls from the ancient world.

4. The wrong kind of city?

5. GMU Econ Society (new and better link).

6. Does non-response bias make the economy look better than it really is?

7. “The existence of manual mode increases human blame for AI mistakes.“

8. Work with Dwarkesh and build a media empire.

9. Luis Garicano is starting a Substack, first post is on gdpr.

Equality Act 2010

The UK’s Orwellian sounding Equality Act 2010 is strikingly Marxist. It demands equal pay for work of equal value where these are defined as follows:

A’s work is equal to that of B if it is like B’s work, rated as equivalent to B’s work, or of equal value to B’s work.

A’s work is like B’s work if A’s work and B’s work are the same or broadly similar, and such differences as there are between their work are not of practical importance in relation to the terms of their work.

…A’s work is rated as equivalent to B’s work if a job evaluation study— gives an equal value to A’s job and B’s job in terms of the demands made on a worker

…A’s work is of equal value to B’s work if it is neither like B’s work nor rated as equivalent to B’s work, but nevertheless equal to B’s work in terms of the demands made on A by reference to factors such as effort, skill and decision-making.

In short, supply and demand have been replaced by judges and labor boards with the authority to deem which jobs are “equal” and therefore should be paid equally. And the labor boards do so based on vague and subjective considerations that do not change with changing circumstances. Imagine replacing “jobs” with “condiments” and having judges decide whether ketchup and mustard should be priced equally because they are similar, broadly comparable, or rated equivalent in terms of the effort, skill, and decision-making that went into their production.

You think I am joking. I am not. Here’s an example of a case just decided in the UK.

More than 3,500 current and former workers at Next have won the final stage of a six-year legal battle for equal pay.

An employment tribunal said store staff, who are predominantly women, should not have been paid at lower rates than employees in warehouses, where just over half the staff are male.

The tribunal ruled that retail workers and warehouse workers were “equal” and thus had to be paid equally. Next replied that they paid everyone market wages. Verboten!

Next argued that pay rates for warehouse workers were higher than for retail workers in the wider labour market, justifying the different rates at the company.

But the employment tribunal rejected that argument as a justification for the pay difference.

According to the tribunal’s ruling, between 2012 and 2023, 77.5% of Next’s retail consultants were female, while 52.75% of warehouse operators were male.

The tribunal accepted that the difference in pay rates between the jobs was not down to “direct discrimination”, including the “conscious or subconscious influence of gender” on pay decisions, but was caused by efforts to “reduce cost and enhance profit”.

It ruled that the “business need was not sufficiently great as to overcome the discriminatory effect of lower basic pay”.

No one is alleging that male and female warehouse workers were paid unequally or that male and female retail workers were paid unequally or that there was any direct or indirect discrimination. The only claim is that warehouse workers, who are less likely to be female than retail workers, earn more than retail workers. And since these jobs have been judged “equal,” the company has violated Equality Act 2010.

Who could have predicted that jobs as disparate as warehouse and retail jobs might one day be deemed “equal.” Yet because Next failed to foresee such lunacy they are now required to pay millions in back wages to their retail employees. Software engineers, particularly in AI, are currently in high demand. A British firm looking to hire them may hesitate to raise wages, fearing that a future ruling could classify software engineers as “equal” to a larger, lower-paid group like HR administrators. Such a decision could easily push the firm into bankruptcy.

The warehouse workers were almost 50% female (47.25%). So females were not barred from the higher paying jobs. The fact that 77.5% of the retail workers were female suggests that retail work has special appeal to females relative to males and thus that there are compensating differentials. Any of the three female plaintiffs could have taken jobs in the warehouse. If the jobs are equal and the warehouse jobs pay more this is, on the plaintiffs’ theory, “puzzling”. [Or, as Ayn Rand would say, blank out.]

In fact, the court case reveals that Next was struggling to fill the warehouse positions and offered any retail employee—including the plaintiffs—the opportunity to switch to warehouse work. On cross-examination, one of the plaintiffs admitted that, given the unpleasant conditions in the warehouse—described by the court as “the drone of machinery,…vibration, alarm sirens and the screeching of machinery, wheels and rollers, continuously present in all areas”—the warehouse job “did not seem particularly attractive” compared to the greater autonomy and more appealing environment of the retail job. The plaintiff added that she would only have considered the warehouse job if it paid “a lot more money.”

Thank goodness for the men and women who were willing to take such jobs for only a little more money! It should not shock that different people have different preferences over jobs, just as they have different preferences over ice cream. In particular, it will perhaps surprise only the judges to learn that men tend to be more wage-focused and “women are relatively more attracted to employers with low pay but high values of nonpay characteristics (NBER 32408).” The court, however, recoiled from this idea, noting that if they were to take demonstrated preferences seriously this would be tantamount to applying “an unfettered free market model of supply and demand.” The horror.

Now consider how the jobs were deemed “equal”. On the left is the job evaluation report for claimant Amanda Cox. The specific categories and numbers are not important; what is important is that the jobs are rated across 11 categories, and the point-scores are then added to get a total score at the bottom.

Amusingly, the evaluators emphasize that they use equal weighting across the categories. Of course, they did—because “equal” is synonymous with fair, right? An unequal weighting would surely be discriminatory!

I am not making this up:

Any scheme which has as its starting point – “This qualification is paramount” or that “This skill is vital” is nearly always going to be biased or at least open to charges of bias or discrimination.

Thus, if you think that a skill is vital for a job, that’s discrimination!

(Notice also that equal weighting is just another form of weighting. Given the subjective nature of both the categories and the points assigned, equal weighting holds no inherent superiority or objectivity.)

But no matter—we have yet to get to the best part. The evaluators selected three warehouse workers and assessed them using the same metric. For example, Amanda Cox was compared to warehouse worker Calvin Hazelhurst, resulting in the table on the right.

Can you spot something surprising in this table? I’ll give you a moment.

The obvious conclusion any reasonable person would draw from this table is that the jobs are clearly not equal. Amanda’s total score is 440, while Calvin’s is 340. 440 ≠ 340. Not even close! In nearly every category—except (no surprise!) physical demands and working conditions—the retail job requires more points, aka “skill and responsibility”.

At this point, most people would stop and ask some critical questions. If the jobs differ so much across multiple dimensions, isn’t it clear that they are not equal? And why do jobs that seemingly require less “skill” pay more? Could it be that our point-score rating system is oversimplified? Maybe the market is telling us something that this crude scoring system isn’t capturing? Is it time to check our premises?

But not the evaluators! Oh, no. The evaluators are thrilled–because the fact that the jobs are unequal proves that they are equal!

War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. UNEQUAL IS EQUAL.

Adam Smith had a much better understanding of wages in 1776 than UK judges have today.

The wages of labour vary with the ease or hardship, the cleanliness or dirtiness, the honourableness or dishonourableness, of the employment. Thus in most places, take the year round, a journeyman tailor earns less than a journeyman weaver. His work is much easier. A journeyman weaver earns less than a journeyman smith. His work is not always easier, but it is much cleanlier. A journeyman blacksmith, though an artificer, seldom earns so much in twelve hours, as a collier, who is only a labourer, does in eight. His work is not quite so dirty, is less dangerous, and is carried on in day-light, and above ground. Honour makes a great part of the reward of all honourable professions. In point of pecuniary gain, all things considered, they are generally under-recompensed, as I shall endeavour to shew by and by. Disgrace has the contrary effect. The trade of a butcher is a brutal and an odious business; but it is in most places more profitable than the greater part of common trades. The most detestable of all employments, that of public executioner, is, in proportion to the quantity of work done, better paid than any common trade whatever.

Today, the UK would convene a labor board to rule that the tailor and the weaver must be paid equally because they DO WORK OF EQUAL VALUE. Case closed.

Labor boards will inevitably lead to the misallocation of labor, diminishing both wealth and fairness. Severe misallocation may lead to further intervention, in the worst scenario, even to the allocation of labor by fiat. Politicization breeds division, rent-seeking, and a stagnant, unpleasant society.

More generally, it pains me that there is no recognition that the market is a discovery procedure, including the discovery of the value of different skills and people’s preferences over different jobs. No recognition that the market harnesses tacit knowledge and knowledge of particular circumstances of time and place–knowledge that is difficult to quantify, communicate, or communicate in a timely manner–and that “society’s economic problems are primarily related to adapting quickly to changes in these circumstances.” No recognition that a price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive.

I despair when I consider that these fundamental ideas are the foundation of our liberal, global, and prosperous civilization. On economics, as on free speech, the UK has entered the great forgetting.

Addendum: A special hat tip to Bruce Greig who brought this to my attention and had the receipts.

Two missing markets

The London Times, in its Sunday on-line culture section, no longer has a weekly article listing what they think are the best books of the year.  Yet they continue to run similar weekly articles for music and film and television.

The books feature has, for me, been the single strongest reason to subscribe to the paper.

Dolcezza, the D:C.-based gelato maker, has replaced its “dark chocolate” with a corrupted and far inferior “dark chocolate fudge,” which I simply do not buy.

The people request their missing markets back!

Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns?

This report describes compound return outcomes for the 29,078 publicly-listed common stocks contained in the CRSP database from December 1925 to December 2023. The majority (51.6%) of these stocks had negative cumulative returns. However, the investment performance of some stocks was remarkable. Seventeen stocks delivered cumulative returns greater than five million percent (or $50,000 per dollar initially invested), with the highest cumulative return of 265 million percent (or $2.65 million per dollar initially invested) accruing to long-term investors in Altria Group. Annualized compound returns to these top performers relatively were modest, averaging 13.47% across the top seventeen stocks, thereby affirming the importance of “time in the market.” The highest annualized compound return for any stock with at least 20 years of return data was 33.38%, earned by Nvidia shareholders.

Here is the full paper by Hendrik Bessembinder.

How much of the recent inflation was caused by deficits?

This paper measures the causal effect of deficits on inflation using a “high frequency narrative approach”. We identify an event that released news about the 2021 deficits in the United States—the Georgia Senate election runoff. We calculate the size of the shock using new narrative data from investment banks. We then study the high frequency response of inflation forecasts from asset prices, in order to separate deficits from other factors affecting inflation. We estimate an “inflation multiplier” of 0.18% price level growth over two years, for a 1% deficit-to-GDP shock. Our estimate implies that the 2021 deficits caused around 30% of the 2021-22 inflation—meaning deficits were important but not the only cause. A standard heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model quantitatively matches the size and dynamics inflation multiplier.

That is from a new paper by Jonathon Hazell and Stepan Hobler.

AI and scientific literature reviews

Introducing PaperQA2, the first AI agent that conducts entire scientific literature reviews on its own. PaperQA2 is also the first agent to beat PhD and Postdoc-level biology researchers on multiple literature research tasks, as measured both by accuracy on objective benchmarks and assessments by human experts. We are publishing a paper and open-sourcing the code. This is the first example of AI agents exceeding human performance on a major portion of scientific research, and will be a game-changer for the way humans interact with the scientific literature.

That is from Sam Rodriques, with further links.  I have not had a chance to try this out.

Wednesday assorted links

1. Innovation networks in the Industrial Revolution.

2. Self-treatment of many diseases and maladies is going to accelerate a good deal.  Can you guess why?

3. Four percent of humanity subscribes to OnlyFans?  Who says Britain is in decline?

4. Those new service sector jobs, Argentina Milei edition.

5. A summary of some John Cochrane.  And Cliff Asness profile.

6. Mansour Seck, RIP.

7. Supply is elastic for vaccinations too.

8. Is there too much serial correlation in Fed decisions?

9. Haitian immigrant incarceration rates.

10. James Broughel defends the sovereign wealth fund idea for America.

11. Non-thwarted Houllebecq media markets in everything.

Median income facts

Inflation-adjusted median household income was $80,610 in 2023, up 4% from the 2022 estimate of $77,540, the bureau said in its annual report card on households’ financial well-being. This move returned incomes to about where they were in 2019, the peak that was hit just before the pandemic.

Here is more from the WSJ.  The Midwest did especially well, with 6.6% gains.

Should we keep the wealthy non-diversified? (from my email)

Byrne Hobart writes to me:

One of the purposes of inheritance taxes is to avoid compounding intergenerational wealth. But The Missing Billionaires points out that if all of America’s millionaires had put their money in broad market indices in 1900, their heirs would number 16,000 billionaires, even accounting for taxes, splitting estates among multiple children, etc.

So one of the forces that prevents compounding inequality is that rich people tend to have less diversified portfolios than the rest of us—they own a lot of whatever it is that made them rich! If we give them an incentive to stay undiversified, and to do so even when they’re quite old and thus not in a great position to monitor or manage their assets well, they’ll end up with suboptimal portfolios that are much more likely to lose most/all of their value than the average retirement account is. Given how much volatility can cut into returns (witness the 3x levered Microstrategy ETF that has lost 82% of its value in a year when Microstrategy itself doubled), it’s possible that the cost basis step-up actually contributes more to intergenerational economic mobility than the money collected by the estate tax itself, by encouraging them to white-knuckle their way through the last years of their life with all their eggs in one basket.

I’m not personally a fan of the estate tax or the step-up, for various reasons, but I found this argument fun nonetheless.

Speculative but interesting…

Bolivian soccer competition

The men’s national soccer team is hoping that hosting World Cup qualifiers at an altitude higher than ever will help it improve in the South American standings.

The Bolivians usually play in the capital La Paz at 3,640 meters (11,940 feet) above sea level, but the South American soccer body CONMEBOL has allowed them to move their games to El Alto, the second largest city in the country at an altitude of 4,150 meters (13,615 feet). That’s as high as nine Empire State Buildings on top of each other.

With one win and five losses, Bolivia is second to last in the standings, and needs a win on Thursday against visiting Venezuela, which is fifth and coming off a quarterfinal run at the Copa America.

New Bolivia coach Oscar Villegas will make his debut after replacing Antonio Carlos Zago, who was fired in July after a winless Copa. Villegas hopes to exploit the higher altitude by picking a squad in which 80% of the players are used to the thinner air, including six from Always Ready club in El Alto, and six more from Bolívar in La Paz…

Venezuela’s home matches are at sea level…

Here is the full article, via Mathan.

Against an American sovereign wealth fund

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt:

It is true that the expected rate of return of the US stock market is higher than the US government’s borrowing rate. But what matters is the net social increase in investment value, not the nominal returns on the government’s portfolio. If the government buys some of my mutual funds, for instance, and it earns the 7% return that I would otherwise have earned, there is no net increase in social value. On paper, the sovereign wealth fund looks like a big success, but the government has simply issued more debt and redistributed some equity returns away from the citizenry and toward itself.

To the extent the government can initiate new investments and “pick winners,” it could boost overall social returns. But that is a far trickier endeavor than just putting funds into the stock market. And just as Democratic administrations have encouraged or mandated labor and diversity standards for many government subsidies and contracts, they might impose similar requirements on US SWFs — which would then be eliminated, or revised, under a Republican administration.

Recommended, there are other significant arguments at the link.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Find the most and least expensive Taco Bell meal in America.  The price dispersion is larger than I would have expected.

2. What will Apple Intelligence do for you?  I was impressed by this demo.  These whines sound like problems that will be fixed within a year?

3. https://hasanyone.com/

4. Scott Sumner on Boston and modernism.

5. “I find your lack of faith disturbing” — James Earl Jones, RIP (NYT).  He also was the last surviving cast member of Dr. Strangelove.

6. Attempted drone assassination in Ecuador.

7. Germany extends temporary controls to all its land borders (FT).

8. Henry Oliver’s very good new book Second Act is being released in the U.S: today, it covers the topic of late bloomers, here is a dialogue about the book.

LLMs are Creative Reasoners

It’s bizarre to me that there are still people claiming that LLMs are not reasoning or are not creative when by any objective measure they are obviously creative reasoners! By objective measure I mean a test that evaluates creativity and reasoning by evaluating outputs not by idle philosophical speculation that rules AIs out by definition. Here’s a good paper, Can LLMs Generate Novel Research Ideas? A Large-Scale Human Study with 100+ NLP Researchers, which illustrates one such test. The authors asked top researchers in the field of natural language processing to propose research ideas which were then presented in a standardized format to a ratings panel of other NLP experts. The AI created ideas were judged more creative than the human ideas.

Now one might argue that the humans weren’t giving their best ideas–some data in the paper suggests they were giving ideas at the median of those for top researchers–and humans might also be looking for ideas that were perhaps easier to get funding precisely because they were less creative but more doable. Either way, however, the AIs are coming up with good ideas that could usefully supplement human generated ideas.

What I’ve been reading

1. Bécquer Seguín, The Op-Ed Novel: A Literary History of Post-Franco Spain.  I liked this book very much, as it gave me extremely useful background on the Spanish fiction I enjoy.  It may make less sense to read if you don’t already know the relevant fiction, but in any case a fine work.  Imagine, by the way, if America had an equally strong correlation between novelists and Op-Ed columnists.

2. Ken McNab, Shake It Up, Baby! The Rise of Beatlemania and the Mayhem of 1963.  At the beginning of that year, John and Paul despaired of making it as a rock band, and expected to end up as songwriters for other people, much like Goffin-King at the time.  By the end of the year however…  This is the story of how that happened.  Very well done.

3. Ian Frazier, Paradise Bronx: The Life and Times of New York’s Greatest Borough.  An excellent, fun, and much-needed book.  I liked the parts about the 20th century best.  I am still longing for that cost-benefit analysis of the Cross-Bronx Expressway, though.  We know the Interstate Highway system passes the cost-benefit test massively, but do all of its constituent parts?

4. Simon Morrison, Tchaikovsky’s Empire: A New Life of Russia’s Greatest Composer.  My favorite book about Tchaikovsky, engaging but it also covers the music for the music’s sake as well.  I liked this sentence from the book jacket: “His life and art were framed by Russian national ambition, and his work was the emanation of an imperial subject: kaleidoscopic, capacious, cosmopolitan.”  The book does go relatively light on Tchaikovsky’s um…personal life.

There is Matt Grossman and David A. Hopkins, and their suitably titled and subtitled Polarized Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics.

Pakistan is a drastically undercovered country, but now Lahore has some coverage, in Manan Ahmed Asif’s Disrupted City: Walking the Pathways of Memory and History in Lahore.

Marieke Brandt, Tribes and Politics in Yemen: A History of the Houthi Conflict had far more detailed than I was seeking.  But I read about one fifth of it, and learned a great deal from that.

J.C.D. Clark, The Enlightenment: An Idea and its History, sounds smart but somehow stays too much at the meta-level of commentary on the commentary?

Victor Davis Hanson has a new book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation.

Why Indian firms don’t scale

Surveying the literature on the impact of labor regulation, we find that India’s firm-level labor regulations punish businesses in two ways. First, the regulations are too onerous, preventing firms from remaining competitive. While some sectors and large-scale industries might be able to comply with this regulatory overload, most regulations are imposed on firms with as few as 10 employees, disincentivizing firm growth and large-scale employment. Second, labor-related regulations tend to micromanage factory operations through uncertain enforcement by a labor inspection system, further discouraging firms from expanding. India’s labor laws do too much, too soon in a firm’s life cycle.

We argue that to scale manufacturing across industries and foster job creation, India needs to revise its stringent labor regulations. This paper begins by describing the predominance of small-scale firms, indicating the extent of informality in India’s manufacturing sector, which is well established in the literature. It then shows that India’s labor law tries to do too much; instead of merely setting standards, the statutes micromanage workplaces, colors, fonts, uniforms, and more by requiring permissions for a host of workplace activities such as changing the tasks of a worker. It argues that the laws apply too soon in firms’ life cycle—namely, at low employee thresholds (typically as low as 10 workers). Both these aspects increase labor and compliance costs and discourage firms from scaling. Next, the paper offers recommendations for reforms to stop disincentivizing firms from scaling—including streamlining labor laws, raising employee thresholds, optimizing inspections, and avoiding excessive reliance on criminal penalties to ensure compliance.

Here is much more by Shruti Rajagopalan and Kadambari Shah.