Results for “singapore”
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Friday assorted links

1. Davis Kedrosky defends Jared Diamond, a good piece.

2. Is “war-related” a “factor” in financial market returns?

3. Global inequality in well-being has decreased along many dimensions.

4. Overview of the new ARPA-H.

5. “WWSS?”  Or, “What would Singapore say?”  You don’t have to agree, but the question is usually worth asking.  Here is Singapore on LLMs.  And if you don’t already know it — I covered it years ago — here is one of my favorite videos, namely Singapore Complaints Choir.

Indonesia observations (from my email)

These are from Khalil Manaf Hagerty:

I’m half Indonesian by ethnicity (one-quarter Bugis, one-quarter Minangkabau, half bule, what we refer to as ‘blasteran’ or mixed race) and have worked on and off there for the past 15 years. Here are some observations:

The internal market is enormous. Unlike many SE Asian countries Indonesia really isn’t dependent upon exports. Domestic demand is massive and the middle class is growing. Combined with a cultural life social structure that allows for upward mobility (more than, say, India), many Indonesians have seen and experienced significant improvements in the quality of life over the past 25 years, post-Suharto. They have a lot of democracy and increasing wealth.

So, adding to this: There are 17,000 islands and if someone wants to ‘make it’, they can quite easily go to Jakarta, a city of around 15 million people, depending on whose estimate you are using. Even within the less urbanised islands, there have still been significant rural agricultural opportunities for smallholder farmers operating on 10ha or so to meet domestic demand for food. So these are big improvements for many people and the success or changes in wealth are all relative.

Think of the narrative of President Jokowi: born and raised in a slum, now President.

On emigration: I’m sorry, but the West still tends to treat Indonesians as though they are Muslim terrorists. The immigration and visa requirements for Indonesians entering Australia for example are (informally) tougher than those entering from Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore (obviously), e.g. there is no easy-to-obtain 30-day holiday visa for Indonesians.

With foreign education, Indonesians are likely to go to Australia for higher ed, it’s cheaper and closer, and the objective is generally an English-language education. There’s a small number of wealthy folks that can afford the US system. There’s a generation of folks who were educated in the US system under the Colombo Plan and its successors, but that has thinned out. You will occasionally meet a guy who went to Purdue for this Masters.

Following on from this, why do Indonesians go home after their degree? Most folks will have very, very strong ties to their community in Jakarta, rural Indonesia or both. This often expresses itself in Islam but is present in Javanese/Sumatran/Malay culture more broadly.

On the entrepreneurial spirit, it very much exists in the country, but as noted above the growth is higher and the cultural barriers to entry are lower domestically. The Chinese community is arguably the best at this, but they see bigger or as many opportunities across the region — particularly through informal Chinese diaspora networks across Asia. Ethnic Chinese are much less persecuted now across the region than they were 25 years ago.

Finally, Indonesia is a big country and the sense of national identity is getting bigger. The US-China thing is a good example; Indonesians believe they can carve their own path without having to choose between the West (and there is still a great deal of resentment towards Europe after 1945-1949) and China. The country’s population is expected to overtake the US within a couple of decades.

If I was to summarise: opportunities at home are big, real and probably easier.

Here was my initial query.

*Colonialism: A Moral Reckoning*

That is the new book by Nigel Biggar, and it has already created a storm of controversy because of his claims that the British empire is, in my words, “underrated.”

Let me first say that I am in no way upset at this thesis being put explicitly on the table.  And the book has many valuable discussions, covering issues such as how hard (at some point) the British worked to ban slavery, what were their motives for empire, what kinds of pressures for assimilation were asserted, and much more.

My disappointment is how little space is devoted to the topic of sustainable economic growth.  In which parts of the empire did British rule boost sustainable economic growth, relative to a counterfactual of peaceful interaction but no conquest?  Singapore and Hong Kong seem obviously much richer and better off due to earlier British rule.  Malaysia likely as well, though the magnitude of the gain there is smaller.  But Sierra Leone not?  The country is miserably poor and has had numerous years of civil war, with a legacy of slavery as well.  Who could object to trying another run of history there, removing the British imperial role?  It is hard to see that it could get very much worse.  But then where does one put Kenya?

And what about all the other places in between?  Most notably historic India?  Biggar does consider the growth topic very explicitly on pp.165-176, mostly in the context of India, but I would have liked to see much, much more.  And I wish he had noted that post-colonial rates of growth in India were generally higher than under British rule, even with a lot of badly conceived socialist policies.  Perhaps British rule was required as a kind of pre-investment (railways? English language?), but all this could receive far greater attention.

I am happy to recommend this book, but I am not sure what is the ultimate standard of judgment of British rule.  So much seems to depend on which is the relevant counterfactual.  There is always the “cheap” argument of “better us than them,” whether it be the French, Dutch, Portuguese, or whomever.  And how should we think about Ireland, where centuries of British rule only pay off after 1970 or so?

In any case, most episodes of British rule could have been much, much better than they actually were.  So I am not convinced this book is framing the questions the very best way, though it is certainly the framing that these days will draw the most attention, the strongest attempts at cancellation, and the most ardent defenses from the Right.

It was not exactly the book I wanted, but I hope you read it.  You can pre-order it here, or as I did have it shipped from UK Amazon.

Friday assorted links

1. Singapore grades itself on its pandemic responses.

2. Higher U.S. high school graduation rates seem to be real.

3. New on-line journal FUSION is soliciting submissions, mix of liberty and tradition ideas.  And Civic Future fellowship (UK, improving the public sector and its workers).

4. How much safer is construction?

5. “Held to maturity.”

6. Is GPT-4 coming next week? (speculative)

The decline of Michelin-starred restaurants

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit:

And then there is the spread of the Michelin brand. There are now Michelin guides for many US cities, which has caused the brand to lose some exclusivity. Michelin has awarded stars to 24 restaurants in the Washington area, for instance. I like many of these places, but I suspect Michelin is grading on a curve.

Social media are another part of the market evolution. Instagramming your meal is a popular pastime, and it suits some restaurants better than others. A lot of people, understandably, are reluctant to pull out their camera phones in a haute Parisian establishment, whereas they will gladly do so in a creative and more casual spot for Indian nouvelle cuisine in London or Singapore. El Bulli (now closed) and Noma have been amazingly good at attracting publicity and inducing pilgrimages, but apart from the very top of the market, Michelin-starred restaurants are operating at a publicity disadvantage.

Another factor working against Michelin is growing time pressure — especially among its well-to-do customer base. Many Michelin-starred dining experiences are slow, and the fixed-price menus often are designed to take up the entire evening, especially if paired with wine. But people are increasingly busy, and the smart phone’s pull of texts and posts and tweets is only getting stronger. And maybe, because of the pandemic, we all want to stretch our legs more often. Speaking for myself, I am much less interested in the three-hour meal than I used to be.

The decline of alcohol consumption in many parts of the world may also be bad for the Michelin experience. Marijuana use, by contrast, is up, and that of course encourages snacking at home.

Here are some related remarks by Air Genius Gary Leff: “In Many Cities, The Michelin Guide Is Now Paid For By The Local Tourism Authority.”

Emergent Ventures winners, 24th cohort

Shakked Noy, MIT economics, to do RCTs on GPTs as teaching and learning tools.

Gabriel Birnbaum, Bay Area, from Fortaleza, Brazil, to investigate lithography as a key technology used in the manufacturing of microchips.

Moritz Wallawitsch, Berkeley. RemNote is his company, educational technology, and to develop a complementary podcast and for general career development.

Katherine Silk, Boston/Cambridge, general career support and to support advice for early-stage startups.

Benjamin Schneider, Brooklyn.  To write a book on the new urbanism.

Joseph Walker, Sydney, Australia, to run and expand the Jolly Swagman podcast.

Avital Balwit, Bay area, travel grant and general career development.

Benjamin Chang, Cambridge, MA. General career support, “I will develop novel RNA riboswitches for gene therapy control in human cells using machine learning.”

Daniel Kang, Berkeley/Champagne-Urbana, biometrics and crypto.

Aamna Zulfifiqar, Karachi, Pakistan, to attend UK higher education to study economics.

Jeremy Stern, Glendale, CA, Tablet magazine.  To write a book.

James Meech, PhD student, Cambridge, UK, to work on a random number generator for better computer architectures.

Arthur Allshire, University of Toronto, background also in Ireland and Australia, robotics and support to attend conferences.

Jason Hausenloy, 17, Singapore, travel and general career development, issues surrounding artificial intelligence.

Sofia Sanchez, Metepec, Mexico, biology and agricultural productivity, to spend a summer at a Stanford lab.

Ukraine tranche:

Andrey Liscovich, eastern Ukraine, formerly of Harvard, to provide equipment for public transportation, communication and emergency power generation to civilian authorities of frontline-adjacent areas in Ukraine which have lost vital infrastructure.

Chris Nicholson, Bay area, working as a broker to maintain internet connectivity in Ukraine.

Andrii Nikolaiev, Arsenii Nikolaiev, Zarina Kodyrova, Kvanta, to advance Ukrainian mathematics, help and train math Olympiad winners.

As usual, India and Africa/Caribbean tranches will be reported separately.

Jiwa Singapura

The new restaurant at Tysons II, top floor near the movie theatre, currently there is no meaningful address or phone number.  Open dinner five days a week, soon lunch as well.

I take Singaporean food very seriously, and I have been numerous times, including a one-week trip where all I did was take the Singaporean “red book” around to hawker centres for the best dishes.  So my standards are high, but essentially this place delivered.  The highlights were the shrimp with salted duck egg sauce and the mackerel fish cake.  But everything else was somewhere between very good and excellent, including the carrot cake, the nasi lemak (you do need to mix it together properly), and a surprisingly soulful seafood laksa.

The prices are entirely reasonable, and currently this has to stand as one of northern Virginia’s best restaurants.  My primary complaint is simply that the music was too loud.

Here is a bit of their backstory, here is their home page, still evolving as you might say.

A simple theory of urbanism and British economic growth

Have you ever visited Zagreb, Ljubljana, or Bratislava, and noticed how boring they are?  They still feel like backwaters, not the national capitals they are.  That is no accident, because they “grew up” under the Habsburg monarchy and in the Austro-Hungarian empire as second- or even third-tier cities.  Vienna and Budapest, the seats of that empire, are correspondingly overgrown, and remain so to this day.

Britain faces this issue in a much more extreme form.  London was once the capital of the largest empire the world ever has seen, was it 1/4 of the world’s population at its peak?  After that it was the de facto financial and economic capital of the European Union, and it remains the de facto financial and economic capital for Europe more generally.  The global ascent of the English language strengthens these tendencies.

That leads to an extreme hypertrophy for London, which indeed is currently the best city in the world but in a modestly populated country.  However this central role for the city makes the UK as a broader nation richer to only a limited degree.  So the extreme wonders of London lead to a partial (permanent) atrophy for the rest of the country, which is precisely what we observe.

For all the mockery of “Singapore on the Thames” as a concept, southern England and the London-Cambridge-Oxford triangle already have far surpassed Singapore, and I am referring to recent not historic achievements.  Does Singapore have innovations that compare to the vaccine and Deep Mind?  I don’t see it.

Therein also lies the curse of southern England.  The region’s most marvelous achievements are ideas, and the value of those ideas is largely capitalized elsewhere.  Unknowingly, southern England is playing the “effective altruist” role for the world as a whole.

Singapore, in contrast, doesn’t generate many new ideas.  It invites in MNCs, and the capitalizes much of the value of that production in the form of higher wages and higher land rents, the latter often accruing to the government and which are then (to varying degrees) distributed back to the native population.

And there you go.  Whatever you think is the best British fiscal policy, it isn’t going to reverse that state of affairs.

Ranking of major tourist sites

Mike asks:

Tyler’s ranking of major world heritage/tourist sites (could be buildings, national parks, etc.) in terms of which far exceed/underwhelm expectations derived from casual internet surfing.

This is off the top of my head and not pondered for very long, with eleven or more in the top ten:

1. Northern Arizona/southern Utah, various national parks, culminating in the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.

Yes, #1 in the whole world and overall I am not such a travel nationalist.  So it must be really, really good.

2. Iguassu Falls.

I have seen only the Brazilian side, Argentina would make it better yet.  Beware the coatimundis who like to sniff your balls!

3. Ålesund, Norway.

4. The architecture of Brasilia.

I like modernism.  The view from the Rio Christ statue is pretty good too.

5. The architecture of Helsinki.

Kind of follows!

6, Macchu Picchu, seen properly.  Or maybe Lalibela?

Now the former is too full of crowds, I suspect.

7. Swiss Alps, including the integration of natural beauty, landscape, and human footprint.

Get a car, don’t talk yourself into the train only.

8. Sikh Golden Temple and surrounding site, Amritsar, Punjab.

9. Niagara Falls.

10. Ginza district, Tokyo.

11. Singapore, Marina Bay Sands area, most of all the view from the Infinity Pool, looking out in all directions.

Other contenders: Istanbul on the water, view from the Eiffel Tower, Yunnan province in China, average quality of beauty in New Zealand, the new parts of Copenhagen and also Hamburg on the waterfront, cruising in Mexico City, the very old parts of Rome, Venice in a fast water boat, Marrakesh, Busan, Korea, Faroe Islands, many different parts of Chile including Patagonia, random geothermal parts of Iceland.

I am sure I have forgotten plenty!

Open the Skies!

Here’s a list of the world’s top ten airlines:

  1. Qatar Airways
  2. Singapore Airlines
  3. Emirates
  4. ANA (All Nippon Airways)
  5. Qantas Airways
  6. Japan Airlines
  7. Turkish Airlines
  8. Air France
  9. Korean Air
  10. Swiss International Air Lines

The airlines in this list have at least two things in common: None of world’s best airlines are US owned and none of them are allowed to operate domestically in the United States. The two common elements are related because so-called “cabotage laws” prohibit foreign airlines from serving domestic travelers.

Imagine what international travel would be like if you could only fly on a US owned airline? Ok it’s not that hard to imagine. Restricting international flights to domestic airlines would make international travel much more expensive and more inconvenient. The US State Department rightly lauds the Open Skies Agreements that have brought competition to international flights:

Since 1992 the United States has pursued an “Open Skies” policy designed to eliminate government intervention in airline decision-making about routes, capacity, and pricing in international markets…Open Skies agreements expand cooperative marketing opportunities between airlines, liberalize charter regulations, improve flexibility for airline operations, and commit both governments to high standards of safety and security.  They are pro-consumer, pro-competition, and pro-growth, and facilitate countless new cultural links worldwide.

True! But US domestic flights fly on Closed Skies. Europe has opened up competition to all European airlines. Indeed, Europe is also substantially open to US carriers, but the US is closed to foreign carriers for domestic flights. Cabotage laws are, in effect, a Jones Act for the airlines.

In an good review, Scott Lincicome summarizes:

Europe’s deregulatory experiences—and our own—show that nixing cabotage restrictions would not only put additional downward pressure on fares but also likely improve route coverage and maybe even customer service.

Monday assorted links

1. Revisions to views about the patriarchy.

2. Ongoing failures in monkeypox response.

3. What happened when the rich stopped intermarrying (speculative).

4. If you scroll through you will see talk of a possible Magnus vs. Nepo rapid match for WCC.  And with sets, a bit like tennis.

5. Craig S. Wright is still at it, model that!

6. Reshoring is succeeding in Singapore (WSJ).

7. At least for now the German trade surplus is gone.

Blockchains: A Promise Enforcement Engine

Anthony Lee Zhang on blockchains

How do blockchains change the state of things? Blockchains are an alternative system for promise enforcement, fundamentally different from any system human history has seen before. Promises in blockchain systems are enforced by miners, who — in reasonably competitive mining markets — have limited ability, and weak incentives, to do anything other than execute others’ promises roughly according to the gas fees they pay. In other words, the blockchain can be thought of as a universal, extremely low-discretion promise enforcement engine.

Consider, for example, automated market maker (AMM) protocols, such as Uniswap. An automated market maker allows anyone to become a liquidity provider, that is, to contribute capital, to make markets in a pair of tokens. Fees are collected from anyone trading with the market maker, and can be programmatically redistributed to liquidity providers. These “terms” are promises in the same way classic financial contracts are — but, rather than promises stated in English enforced in courts of law, they are written in Solidity and “enforced” by Ethereum miners.

Lending protocols, such as Aave, allow agents to borrow if they pledge their risky assets to the system as collateral. Aave values the collateral automatically using price oracles, and automatically seizes and liquidates collateral when the amount borrowed is worth too much compared to the collateral staked. MakerDAO similarly functions like a virtual “pawn shop”, taking risky assets and printing tokens whose value derives from the fact that they are overcollateralized by risky collateral, automatically valued using collateral price feeds. Aave and Maker function similarly to margin lending systems in traditional finance, except that the lenders are bots instead of banks. A nontrivially large fraction of the useful promises that are traded in financial systems, it seems, can be approximately as easily expressed in Solidity as they can in English, and thus can be enforced by miners rather than by courts.

The consequences of the existence of blockchains are thus that, for the first time in human history, we have a real alternative to governments and legal systems for the enforcement of promises. What are the effects this will have on the world?

Governments in developed economies are imperfect but they are adequate promise enforcers and they have reasons to suppress their competitor, blockchains. Hence Zhang argues:

…The future of finance will not be built on Wall Street, by a handful of privileged graduates from a handful of top colleges in a handful of high-income countries. The future of finance will be built on blockchains, in Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, through the combined efforts of many billions of people, who for the first time in human history will be able to participate on an equal footing in the market for promises.

This is similar to what Tyler and I write in cryptoeconomics:

Traditional finance relies on legal documents like contracts, titles, and personal identification and thus it ultimately relies on a legal system that can enforce those contracts quickly, reliably, and at low cost. Relatively few countries in the world have all the required abilities, which is why traditional finance clusters in a handful of places like New York, London, Singapore, and Zurich.

Decentralized finance, in contrast, relies on smart contracts and cryptographic identification that work exactly the same way everywhere. Decentralized finance, therefore, could be broader based and more open than traditional finance. Indeed, decentralized finance could prosper in precisely those regions of the world that do not have reliable legal systems or governments with the power to regulate heavily.

Interland: A New Type of Government

Max Tabarrok has an interesting new idea for governance, Interland:

The Interland Flag

Interland takes the intersection of the law codes of a large group of nations. This will produce a minimal reasonable set of laws which is highly resistant to lobbying and growth.

Anyone who wants to add a new agricultural subsidy, building height limit, or immigration restriction has to convince everyone in this group to add it before it passes in Interland. This makes the institutions of the country consistent and durable.

Durability is only good if the thing that’s lasting is also good. We have several reasons to expect this to be the case for Interland’s institutions. First, Interland will have a shorter list of statutes and regulations than any other country in its group. This isn’t unconditionally good, but since the mechanisms of democracy are likely to overproduce rules it’s the directionally correct adjustment. Even better is that all of the laws that Interland does have will be more universally supported than most of the laws in other nations, since they are by definition the set of laws that many nations agree on. As more countries are added to the intersection, Interland’s law code would be further distilled into human universals. Finally, Interland will be the freest nation on earth. Anything which is allowed by any member of the intersection will also be allowed in Interland.

Importantly, Interland’s constitution will be positively constructed. This means it will be a list of all of the things the government can do, and anything not listed is not within the government’s authority. This is in contrast to parts of the American constitution and Bill of Rights which define government authority by tracing the negative space that its authority cannot cross, but there was significant debate over which method was best during the drafting of the American constitution.

So what sorts of laws would Interland have? All nations share a lot of their basic criminal code. Murder, theft, and rape are all illegal in every country so they’d be illegal in Interland. Abortion, homosexuality, multi-family, and multi-use construction would not be illegal although many countries outlaw them. Nuclear power construction would be much easier thanks to the laws of France and South Korea, and almost all drugs would be legal or at least decriminalized.

…Interland’s taxation and spending would be minimal, mirroring nations like Hong KongSingapore, and Luxemburg. But by all accounts these nations have effective and comprehensive public services. Unfortunately in the eyes of some and thankfully for others, Interland would have a state police force, a public road network (although toll roads would be allowed), public parks, and libraries.

Read the whole thing for some discussion of other issues and limitations.

I think this is a compelling idea. Establishing a new country is difficult, of course, but the ideas of interland can be applied to already existing countries or sub-countries. A US state, for example, could declare itself an interland–Interland: New Mexico–and pledge to adopt only those laws that every other state has adopted. A country in the OECD or EU could declare itself an interland and so forth.

The code of Interland could also be useful in and of itself as a reference point. If we had an Interland database one could compare how close or far countries are to Intereland and in what respects they differ. Interland could be a virtual country and a model code–a country and code to which other countries can aspire to much like the Uniform Law Code.

Viva Interland!

In defense of extremism

That is my latest Bloomberg column, the argument is super-simple:

Calling something “extremist” is not an effective critique. It’s a sign that the speaker or writer either doesn’t want to take the trouble to make a real argument, or is hoping to win the debate through rhetoric or Twitter pressure rather than logic. It’s also a bad sign when critics stress how social media have fed and encouraged “extremism.”

I favor plenty of extremist ideas. For instance, I think that the world’s major cities should adopt congestion rush-hour pricing. (I know, it hardly sounds extreme, but I assure you that many drivers consider it extremely outrageous to have to pay to drive on roads that were free a few hours before.) London and Singapore have versions of congestion pricing, with some success, but given the public reaction and that most other major cities do not seem close to enactment, it has to count as a relatively extreme idea.

I also favor human challenge trials, arguably an even more extreme idea. In human challenge trials, rather than waiting for a virus to infect those vaccinated (randomly) with the placebo, scientists recruit volunteers and infect them deliberately and immediately. This accelerates the speed of a biomedical trial. To many people there is something repugnant about asking for volunteers and then deliberately doing them harm by injecting them with the virus.

Maybe human challenge trials aren’t a good idea. But calling them extreme or repugnant does not help explain why.

We then get into some more “extreme” ideas…

Someone complaining about “extremism” is a likely predictor of an epistemic vice.