Tyler v. Alex: Guide to the Perplexed

Lately I’ve noticed that people are confusing posts from Tyler with posts from me.  Here is a simple guide for the perplexed:

  • References to a cymbalist/Dadaist/expressionist that you have never heard of.  Tyler.
  • References to Dog/Rush/Hayek (Salma).  Alex
  • A simple question with ten answers.  Tyler.
  • A complex question with one answer.  Alex.
  • You have no idea what the post means.  Tyler.
  • You know exactly what the post means and it makes you mad as hell.  Alex.

How much of a jerk do you have to be to oppose immigration?

YouNotSneaky has a great post in which he calculates how big a "jerk" you have to be to oppose immigration.  The answer – proven with considerable mathematical sophistication – is that the exact "jerk factor" depends on theta, the extent to which marginal utility diminishes with income.  The results, which you are unlikely to see in the JPE, make me laugh (but note that others will be insulted) are graphed here.  Read the whole thing for details on the calculations which do make a serious point.

Hat tip to Dani Rodrik.

Guest Blogger: Kevin Grier

We are delighted to have Kevin Grier guest blogging with us this week.  Kevin is a pioneer in the political economy of macroeconomics.  Kevin’s early work on political business cycles established that politicians do attempt to manipulate the economy via the money supply.  Later, in a series of papers with Tony Caporale, Kevin showed that changes in the real interest rate can be explained via political regime shifts.  My favorite paper of Kevin’s is Congressional
Influence on
Monetary Policy: An Empirical Test
(JME 91, subs. req.) which is a great example of how to combine different types of evidence to convincing effect.  But Kevin’s greatest contribution to economics?  Well, I am to modest to say and no doubt Kevin is too embarrassed.

Kevin is also an expert on low-watt tube amplifiers, check it out here.  Welcome Kevin!

No one makes you shop at Wal-Mart

In increasing order of seriousness.

As noted, the heart of the book is a well-written primer on let’s call it new economics.  As such, this book would make a good supplement to an advanced undergraduate class.  But the activism and attacks on MarketThink are occasionally distracting.  Chapter 1, for example, opens with a denunciation of inequality.  Nothing wrong with that but Slee doesn’t even attempt to show that there is any connection between rising inequality and the failure of MarketThink theories.  He just lumps things he doesn’t like into one pile. If there were no asymmetric information, no herding, no coordination problems and so forth I guarantee that there would still be plenty of inequality.

For the most part, Slee illustrates the new economics with insightful, interesting and often new examples.  But there are clunkers.  I almost threw the book at the wall when he started talking about QWERTY.  Surely, Slee knows that this worn-out example is a joke?  The supposed superiority of the DVORAK keyboard was shown in studies conducted by … Dvorak.  See here.  It’s especially annoying that Slee did not reference, Winners, Losers & Microsoft.

As primer, it’s fine to illustrate with examples and move on but as an attack on markets one expects a balanced consideration of opposing theories.  For example, Slee looks at beer micro-breweries vs. mass brewers arguing that we are currently stuck in the bad mass-equilibrium because micro-breweries rely on word-of-mouth but the institutions which sustain the word-of-mouth equilibrium only work when there are already lots of micro-breweries about which one can talk.  Nice, but here is an alternative theory.  Economies of scale made mass produced beer cheaper and when push came to shove consumers chose the cheaper good product over the more expensive but slightly better product (I don’t eat at 5 star restaurants every night).  New technologies, however, have made micro-brewing more economic and as they have done so we are moving to the mass-customization world that Slee prefers.  Consumers have gotten the best of all worlds – given scarcity – in both time frames.  The beer activists in England that Slee likes moved the process along but in the direction that it was already going.

There is no comparative analysis in the book at all.  No discussion, for example, of how free riding, asymmetric information, herding etc. distorts government choice.  Also, no appreciation that what some of us MarketThink people really advocate is civil society which includes non-profits and voluntary collective action of all kinds.  And, no we are not all corporate shills (p. 106).

It’s true that outcomes do not always illustrate preferences but often they do.   Maybe people really do not want to walk to school.  It’s subtle but Tom seems all too eager to call in the government to force us into the better equilibrium.  I worry when people start talking about how government can help us to express our true preferences.  Isn’t this what dictators always say?  True freedom is oppression.

The chapter on power is terrible, I did throw the book against the wall.  Perhaps in order to prepare us to welcome government as the deliverer of our true preferences, Slee wants to diminish the distinction between liberty and coercion.  But a true liberal should never write things like this:

…the formal structure of democracy and free markets is not enough to rule out exploitation and plunder – characteristics usually associated with repressive regimes.

If Tom visits GMU (I happen to know he reads MR) he should watch out because I shall kick him in the shins stating, “I refute you thus.”

More seriously, repressive governments around the world threaten, rob, torture and murder with impunity.  Courageous individuals have died trying to escape such regimes while others have died fighting for their rights.  No matter how great are differences in wealth, it is morally wrong to equate what goes on in repressive regimes with capitalist acts between consenting adults.

Ben Bernanke is not a Credit Snob

Ben Bernanke argues that subprime mortgage lending is a natural and positive outgrowth of financial innovation.  Although some problems have occured they are being self-corrected and do not threaten the financial system.

…subprime mortgage lending began to
expand in earnest in the mid-1990s, the expansion spurred in large part by
innovations that reduced the costs for lenders of assessing and pricing risks.
In particular, technological advances facilitated credit scoring by making it
easier for lenders to collect and disseminate information on the
creditworthiness of prospective borrowers. In addition, lenders developed new
techniques for using this information to determine underwriting standards, set
interest rates, and manage their risks.

The ongoing growth and development of the secondary mortgage market has
reinforced the effect of these innovations. Whereas once most lenders held
mortgages on their books until the loans were repaid, regulatory changes and
other developments have permitted lenders to more easily sell mortgages to
financial intermediaries, who in turn pool mortgages and sell the cash flows as
structured securities. These securities typically offer various risk profiles
and durations to meet the investment strategies of a wide range of investors.
The growth of the secondary market has thus given mortgage lenders greater
access to the capital markets, lowered transaction costs, and spread risk more
broadly, thereby increasing the supply of mortgage credit to all types of
households…

The expansion of subprime mortgage lending has made homeownership possible
for households that in the past might not have qualified for a mortgage and has
thereby contributed to the rise in the homeownership rate since the mid-1990s…

As the problems in the subprime mortgage market have become manifest, we have
seen some signs of self-correction in the market. Investors are scrutinizing
subprime loans more carefully and, in turn, lenders have tightened underwriting
standards. Credit spreads on new subprime securitizations have risen, and the
volume of mortgage-backed securities issued indicates that subprime originations
have slowed. But although the supply of credit to this market has been
reduced–and probably appropriately so–credit has by no means evaporated.

More from Bernanke here.  Previous posts on credit snobs here, here and here.

Alfred Chandler

Alfred Chandler died last week.  Chandler, along with Ronald Coase and Oliver Williamson opened up the black box of the firm.  Of the three, Chandler took the longest view emphasizing how new technologies for handling information (telephone, telegraph, record keeping) gave rise to new organizational structures in business (the M-form).  Critical to Chandler, however, was that the new organizational structures were necessary to fully exploit the new technologies and they came about neither automatically nor without great experimentation, evolution and slow transformation.  We can be sure that the computer and the internet will be changing business structure for at least the next quarter century.   

Chandler’s classic The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business is sometimes understood ala Berle and Means as a challenge to the idea of the invisible hand and "market capitalism."  The real lesson, however, is how the invisible hand guides not just buying and selling but organizing and thinking. 

Special Interests, Universal Appeal

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.
                                                                         H.L. Mencken

My colleague Bryan Caplan explains today in the Wall Street Journal.

When special interests talk, politicians listen and the rest of us suffer. But why do politicians listen? Social scientists’ favorite explanation is
that special interests pay close attention to their pet issues and the rest of
us do not. So when politicians decide where to stand, the safer path is to
satisfy knowledgeable insiders at the expense of the oblivious public.

This explanation is appealing, but it neglects one glaring fact.
"Special-interest" legislation is popular.

Keeping foreign products out is popular. Since 1976, … Americans who
"sympathize more with those who want to eliminate tariffs" are seriously
outnumbered by "those who think such tariffs are necessary." Handouts for
farmers are popular. A 2004 … Poll found that 58% agree that "government needs
to subsidize farming to make sure there will always be a good supply of food."
In 2006, … over 80% of Americans want to raise the minimum wage. … These
results are not isolated. It is hard to find any "special interest" policies
that most Americans oppose.

Clearly, there is something very wrong with the view that the steel industry,
farm lobby and labor unions thwart the will of the majority. The public does not
pay close attention to politics, but that hardly seems to be the problem. The
policies that prevail are basically the policies that the public approves. …
To succeed, special interests only need to persuade politicians to swim with the
current of public opinion.

Why would the majority favor policies that hurt the majority? … The
majority favors these policies because the average person underestimates the
social benefits of the free market, especially for international and labor
markets. In a phrase, the public suffers from anti-market bias.

Thoma excerpts more.

Evolution and Moral Community

Paul Rubin argues that our evolutionary heritage biases us against seeing larger moral communities.

Our primitive ancestors lived in a world that was essentially static; there
was little societal or technological change from one generation to the next.
This meant that our ancestors lived in a world that was zero sum — if a
particular gain happened to one group of humans, it came at the expense of
another.

This is the world our minds evolved to understand. To this day, we often see
the gain of some people and assume it has come at the expense of others.
Economists have argued for more than two centuries that voluntary trade, whether
domestic or international, is positive sum: it benefits both parties, or else
the exchange wouldn’t occur. Economists have also long argued that the economics
of immigration — immigrants coming here to exchange their labor for money that
they then exchange for the products of other people’s labor — is positive sum.
Yet our evolutionary intuition is that, because foreign workers gain from trade
and immigrant workers gain from joining the U.S. economy, native-born workers
must lose.

A Quarter for Your Thoughts?

Earlier this year the US defense department warned of a new threat – Canadian spy coins.  Investigators have now uncovered the shocking truth.  Here’s the gist of the story from January:

In a U.S. government warning high on the creepiness scale, the Defense Department cautioned its
American contractors over what it described as a new espionage threat: Canadian
coins with tiny radio frequency transmitters hidden inside.

The
government said the mysterious coins were found planted on U.S.
contractors with classified security clearances on at least three
separate occasions between
October 2005 and January 2006 as the contractors traveled through
Canada.

…The government
insists the incidents happened, and the risk was genuine.

"What’s in
the report is true,” said Martha Deutscher, a spokeswoman for the security
service. "This is indeed a sanitized version, which leaves a lot of
questions.”

The shocking truth?  The Royal Canadian mint issue 30 million "poppy quarters" in 2004 to commemorate Canada’s war dead.   When contractors found the coins in their coat pockets and in the cup holder of a rental car they issued reports that they were being spied upon with new nanotechnology. 

The worried contractors described the
coins as "anomalous" and "filled with something man-made that looked
like nanotechnology," according to once-classified U.S. government
reports and e-mails obtained by the AP….

The supposed nanotechnology actually was a
conventional protective coating the Royal Canadian Mint applied to
prevent the poppy’s red color from rubbing off.

Thanks to Monique van Hoek for the pointer.