Category: Books

Predictions from *Average is Over*

by  Tyler Cowen in

My book is from 2013, here are some of the key predictions:

1. Increases in the power and generality of artificial intelligence will prove a major breakthrough within a foreseeable time period.

2. Labor market returns will accrue to individuals capable and willing to work with such services.

3. Resources and land are going to significantly increase in economic value, as they will remain relatively scarce.

4. Marketing will continue to rise in relative importance.

5. Managerial and “soft skills” will continue to increase in importance for earnings.

6. What we now call “quiet quitting” will be a thing.

7. At many corporations it will be possible to dismiss large numbers of workers without any decline in output.

8. Cheating with AI will arise as an issue of major importance, starting with cheating in chess, and the work of Kenneth Regan will turn out to be significant.

9. AI assessments of everything will rise in importance.

10. AI will produce more and more outputs that are so smart we will not be able to evaluate them as humans.

11. Free or near-free effective on-line education soon would become available, though it will remain an open question how many individuals will be interested in learning from it.

12. Good teaching would evolve more toward coaching and mentorship, as information provision will be handled by AI.

13. Intelligent machines soon will become effective producers of science, yet how they arrive at their results will not be legible to us.

14. With the aid of AI, there will be a resurgence of amateur science.

15. Machine learning and its successors will take over economic research.

Of course not all of those predictions have come true, but many have or others are on the verge of realization.  The subtitle of the book is Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation.

*The Guest Lecture*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The author is Martin Riker, and this is a story about a jobless economics professor about to give a lecture.  She is nervous, and her thoughts rapidly turn to Keynes, including his “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren” essay.  She ponders the problems of the world, her husband and daughter, and Keynes, Keynes, Keynes, chatting with him throughout.  On pp.54-55 Deirdre McCloskey surfaces and plays a role in the story, which shifts to the scene of a trial.

I don’t want to spoil anything, but suffice to say there are some non-literal meanings of what is happening in these pages.  Overall, this is one of the more significant modern examples of a very direct overlap of economics and fiction.

You can buy it here.  Here are various reviews.

*The Time Travelling Economist*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The author is Charlie Robertson, and the subtitle is Why Education, Electricity and Fertility are Key to Escaping Poverty.

How come no one told me about this book before?  Published in 2022 (in Switzerland), it is one of the best popular economics books of the last decade, and one of the best books on economic development period.  People should talk about it more!  And to be sure, that description “popular” is misleading.  Like other good books in this genre, it is deeper and better than merely being “popular,” even if it does not itself present original research of the kind you might find in a journal.

Anyway, the core argument is reflected well in the subtitle, and here is one excerpt:

Electricity is an integral part of the investment story that all countries require to escape poverty and eventually progress to become rich.  The commonly cited metric is that investment needs to be 25% of GDP and those that beat this, grow fast.  In this chapter, we use electricity as a proxy for that investment target.

There are good insights throughout, for instance:

Many have high hopes for solar power in Nigeria, but one problem is keeping them secure.  Solar panels might be at risk of theft to replace the expensive diesel generator that so many households have to rely on.

The author has considerable real world experience through his Global Chief Economist position at Renaissance Capital.  Here is another good bit:

When fertility rates fall, country’s banking systems will get larger.

And:

A debt crisis is probably unavoidable in a bid to create jobs.

The author is bullish on Pakistan, North Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda.  For better or worse, some of those picks reflect the fact that “politics” does not feature directly in his key jumping-off points for growth.  We will see.

There are various objections you can levy at this book, ranging from “lack of a fully specified model” (who has that anyway?) to “those factors are themselves endogenous to [fill in the blank].”  I’ll just say that I have seen many a worse economic development book, and this one is not ideologically charged either.

You can order it here.

ChatGPT and reading in clusters

by  Tyler Cowen in

I have a new favorite reading trick, most of all for history books.  As I read through the pages, I encounter names, place names, battle names and so on that I am not very familiar with (for many but not all topics).  Just keep on “ChatGPTing” at least one identifier a page as you go along.  Learn the context along the way.  The final effect is a bit like reading surrounding books on the same topic, except you don’t need all those other books.  This method is especially valuable when the topics are obscure.  To the extent the topics are pretty well-known, this method does not differ so much from using Google as you read.  Try it!

What should I ask Anna Keay?

by  Tyler Cowen in

I will be doing a Conversation with her, here is from Wikipedia:

Anna Julia Keay, OBE… is a British architectural historian, author and television personality and director of The Landmark Trust since 2012.

Born in the Scottish Highlands, and yes she is also the daughter of historian John Keay.  I am a fan of her books, many on British architectural history  or for that matter the crown jewels, but most recently The Restless Republic: Britain Without a Crown (or this link) about the 17th century interregnum.  Here is her home page.  Here is Anna on Twitter.  And this:

The Landmark Trust is a British building conservation charity, founded in 1965 by Sir John and Lady Smith, that rescues buildings of historic interest or architectural merit and then makes them available for holiday rental. The Trust’s headquarters is at Shottesbrooke in Berkshire.

Five of those properties are in Vermont, it turns out.  She lives (part-time) in what is perhaps the finest surviving merchant’s house in England.

So what should I ask her?

Alex Epstein’s *Fossil Future*

by  Tyler Cowen in

Bryan Caplan asked me to read this book, and Alex Epstein was kind enough to provide me with a copy of it.  The subtitle is Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas — Not Less.

My overall view is this: it is a good rebuttal to “the unrealistic ones,” who don’t see the benefits of fossil fuels.  But it does not rebut a properly steelmanned case for a transition away from fossil fuels.

I view the steelmanned case as this: we cannot simply keep on producing increasing amounts of carbon emissions for centuries on end.  We thus need some trajectory where — at a pace we can debate — carbon emissions end up declining.  I’ve stressed on MR many times that climate change is not in fact an existential risk, but it could be a civilization-destroying risk if we just keep on boosting carbon emissions without end.  I don’t know a serious scientist who takes issue with that claim.

In a number of places, such as pp.251-252, and most significantly chapter nine, Epstein denies the likelihood of climate apocalypse, but I just don’t see that he has much of a counter to the standard, more quantitative accounts.  He should try to publish his more optimistic take using actual models, and see if it can survive peer review.  Why should I be convinced in the meantime?  I found chapter nine the weakest part of the book.  Maybe he feels he wouldn’t get a fair knock by trying to publish his alternative take through “the standard process,” but as it stands his casual take doesn’t come close to overturning what I consider to be the most rational, consensus-based Bayesian estimate of the consequences of making no transition to green energy.

I am also impressed by how many different kinds of scientists accept these conclusions, and see these conclusions mirrored in their own research.  If you ask say the oceanographers, they will give you a broadly consistent account as the climate scientists proper.

Nor is there, for my taste, enough discussion of how much climate risk we should be willing to take on.  It is not just about “beliefs most likely to be true.”  Note that the less you believe in climate models, the more you should be worried about tail risk.  In these matters, do not assume that uncertainty is the friend of inaction.

So I really do think we need to deviate from the world’s recent course with respect to fossil fuels.  Now, we can believe that claim and simultaneously believe it would be better if Burkina Faso were much richer, even though that likely would be accompanied by more fossil fuel use, at least for a considerable period of time.

Epstein focuses on the Burkina Faso sort of issue, and buries the long-term risk of no real adjustment.  But we do have to adjust.  Why could he not have had the subtitle: “Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas for a while, and Then Less”?  Then I would be happier.  In economic language, you could say he is not considering enough of the margins.

I think he is also too pessimistic about the long-run and even medium-run futures of alternative energy sources.  More generally, I don’t think a few book chapters — by anyone with any point of view — can really settle that.  I find the market data on green investments more convincing than his more abstract arguments (yes, I know a lot of those investments are driven by subsidies and regulation, but there is genuine change afoot).

I worry about his list of experts presented on pp.29-30.  Mostly they are very weak, and this returns to my point about steelmanning.

In his inscription to the book Epstein calls me a contrarian — but he is the contrarian here!  And I believe his position is likely to retain that designation.  There is a lot in the book which is good, and true, nonetheless I fear the final message of the work will lower rather than raise social welfare.

For another point of view, here are various Bryan Caplan posts defending Epstein’s arguments.  In any case, I thank Alex for the book.

*Professor of Apocalypse: The Many Lives of Jacob Taubes*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The author is Jerry Z. Muller, and I am sorry I did not have the chance to read this book last year when it came out.  Taubes is one of the most underrated deep thinkers, and this is the definitive biography of him.  Think of Taubes as a mid-twentieth century Germanic-Jewish but also partly Christian thinker who tried to integrate philosophy, theology, and science, yet without ever committing to a serious enough level of written investigation to have a chance of pulling that off.  He nonetheless was capable of depth, and pearls of insight, that few other thinkers can pull off.  From the biography, here is one of the more personal excerpts:

Some of Margherita’s friends wondered at the pairing.  Some thought her more attracted to women than to men.  The partners seemed so different.  She had a fashion sense that Jacob lacked.  She drove a white Alfa Romeo, while after his move to Berlin, Jacob did not drive at all.  She was proper and reserved.  Jacob was neither.  Jacob was ironic, skeptical, and witty; Margherita more strict and earnest.  Jacob had a mind that was explorative and associative, while Margherita did not.  She was a dog lover, a not unusual taste among Germans of her background, but foreign to Jacob’s.  She owned a small house in the Black Forest, to which she withdrew from time to time, a practice Jacob scorned as “Heideggerei.”

I had not known Susan Sontag was his research assistant.  I am less surprised that he hung out with Cioran and Hans Blumenberg (both insufficiently read in the English-speaking world as well).  This book is not for everyone (500 + pp. about a thinker you probably have not read), but it is for some people.

Erika Fatland’s *High*

by  Tyler Cowen in

The subtitle is A Journey Across the Himalaya Through Pakistan, India, Bhutan, Nepal, and China.  This is the first great book of 2023, at least that I have seen.  Bravo!  Travel books are hard to summarize, but I will note that most of them are bad or at best mediocre.  They assume you care about the author’s adjectives, or that the interesting nature of experienced events will translate automatically to the page.  This work, in contrast, is a wonderful blend of fact, history, political observation, and narrative.  I read every page, and it would likely make my list of my favorite thirty travel books of all time.  Here is the author’s home page, she is by background a Norwegian anthropologist who speaks eight languages.

*Power Failure: The rise and fall of General Electric*

by  Tyler Cowen in

That is the new book by William D. Cohan, which I just reviewed for Times Literary Supplement.  Gated, but here is the opening bit:

The individual stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average typically fall from grace with some regularity. Of the thirty Dow stocks listed in 1990, for instance, only seven were still in the Dow as of November 2022, mostly because the companies have ceased to be important. Stripped down to its basic fundamentals, that is the tale of General Electric (GE): one of rise and fall. But it had an exceptionally long time at the top. GE has its roots in the 1890s, and by 1993 it was the most valuable company in the United States, with a market value of more than $80 billion. It was removed from the Dow in 2018 – the last original stock from 1896 to leave the index. Its core business had shrunk, with no offsetting growth in another area. Today, the company is no longer a significant object of public attention.

This story can be told in many different ways, and the most impressive feature of William D. Cohan’sPower Failure is that he succeeds with multiple approaches.

You can buy the book here, note the American title is slightly different.

Google Books on steroids?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Here is the link, I am told I am in there too.

My Conversation with the excellent Rick Rubin

by  Tyler Cowen in

The Rick Rubin.  Here is the transcript and audio, here is part of the summary:

He joined Tyler to discuss how to listen (to music and people), which artistic movement has influenced him most, what Sherlock Holmes taught him about creativity, how streaming is affecting music, whether AI will write good songs, what he likes about satellite radio, why pro wrestling is the most accurate representation of life, why growing up in Long Island was a “miracle,” his ‘do no harm’ approach to working with artist, what makes for a great live album, why Jimi Hendrix owed his success to embracing technology, what made Brian Eno and Brian Wilson great producers, what albums he’s currently producing, and more.

And an excerpt:

COWEN: Do you think the widespread advent of streaming threatens the economic viability of a successful ecosystem for musical production and sale?

RUBIN: I think it can be. I don’t think it is yet. If you look at the history of recorded music, at the time that the Beatles were making albums, I think they were paid several pennies per album sold. Then over time, the artists got more leverage and were able to negotiate better deals. I think it finally culminated in the old music business with Michael Jackson who was getting maybe $2 per album that was sold, which was much more than everybody else. In the early days of singles, people were paid very little. Every time there’s a new format of music, the rights holders seem to take advantage of that.

Like when CDs first came in, artists got paid less on a CD than they did for vinyl, and it’s been very time. Every time there’s a new format, the artist gets paid less. Now, they only get paid less until their attorneys realize, “Oh, in our next deal, we’re going to negotiate to have better digital rights,” or better whatever it is. Then it eventually evens out because ultimately, the artists have a great deal of leverage.

Like now, for the handful of the biggest artists in the world, they probably make more money through streaming music than anyone has ever made in the physical world of music, but it’s very much of a top-down thing. It’s only the very top percent who have that. Eventually, hopefully, it’ll get more equitable. It always has. In every case, it has so I’m optimist that it will again.

COWEN: Do you worry about the decline in music education in American schools? Does that matter for popular music in the future, or do people just teach themselves? There’s YouTube, there’s streaming, whatever.

RUBIN: I don’t think it matters. I like the idea of learning what you want in school. If you want to learn music, it would be nice to have that option, but I think that people learn the things they love wherever they are, not in school.

And this:

RUBIN: Yes. I listen to The Beatles [satellite radio] Channel all the time. I love The Beatles Channel.

COWEN: As do I.

RUBIN: It was funny one of the things that when I was talking to Paul McCartney, one of the first things I said to him was like, “Oh, yes, you make all the music that’s on The Beatles Channel, right? That’s who you are. You’re the guy who makes the music for The Beatles Channel.”

Interesting throughout, and best experienced as a whole.  And here is Rick’s new book The Creative Act: The Way of Being.