Category: Current Affairs
A nuclear fusion plant in Virginia?
A company pioneering the use of fusion for commercial energy plans to build the nation’s first grid-scale fusion power plant in Virginia by the early 2030s, Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other state and company officials said Tuesday.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), based in Massachusetts, said it will invest billions of dollars to build the unique facility, which — if the technology can be proved — promises to supply about 400 megawatts of electricity, enough energy to power about 150,000 homes, according to a state news release.
Here is more from The Washington Post.
The epistemics of drone incursions
I do not pretend to know what is going on, nor do I think it is aliens. I do read:
The sprawling Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio is the latest military installation to report mysterious drones flying over its airspace, The War Zone has learned.
“I can confirm small aerial systems were spotted over Wright Patterson between Friday night and Saturday morning,” base spokesman Bob Purtiman told The War Zone on Sunday in response to our questions about the sightings. “Today leaders have determined that they did not impact base residents, facilities, or assets. The Air Force is taking all appropriate measures to safeguard our installations and residents.”
The drones “ranged in sizes and configurations,” Purtiman said. “Our units are working with local authorities to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities, and assets.”
The airspace over the base was closed for a while. My point here is to beware self-styled “debunkers,” who often acquire excess ownership in a schtick. Most of all I mean figures such as Mick West. It is easy enough to find stupid claims about drones (especially in New Jersey?) and counter them. The better way to proceed is to confront the strongest claims head on. The head of DHS is mystified, and a classified security briefing was held for Congress. Those are puzzles we should try to figure out. There is at least a reasonable probability that something interesting is going on here. Beware debunkers, very often they are not your epistemic friends.
Addendum: Here is an update from a man who receives high-level intelligence briefings.
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market
Deming, Ong and Summers have a good overview of long-run and very recent changes in the US labor market. Using a measure of occupational titles the authors find:
The years spanning 1990-2017 were the most stable period in the history of the US labor market, going back nearly 150 years.
It’s a bit too early to distinguish an AI revolution from a COVID shock but the last four years look to be more disruptive than any since the 1970s and over a slightly longer period there are trends including a decline in retail, as consumers shift to online shopping and delivery, and a decline in office work, the latter especially suggesting an AI effect:
There were 850,000 fewer retail sales workers in the US in 2023 compared to 2013 even though the US economy added more than 19 million jobs over this period.
There are nearly five hundred thousand fewer secretaries and administrative assistants in the US labor force now than there were a decade ago. At the same time, management and business occupations have grown very rapidly. There were four million more managers and 3.5 million more business and financial operations jobs in the US in 2023 than there were in 2013.
Keep in mind that these changes are occurring as employment and wages overall are rising.
Jennifer Pahlka on DOGE
An excellent piece, one of the best I have read all year. Here is the concluding paragraph:
We can wish that the government efficiency agenda were in the hands of someone else, but let’s not pretend that change was going to come from Democrats if they’d only had another term, and let’s not delude ourselves that change was ever going to happen politely, neatly, carefully. However we got here, we may now be in a Godzilla vs Kong world. Perhaps we’re about to get a natural experiment in which Elonzilla faces off with Larry ElliKong. One of the things we need to be ready to learn is that Elonzilla could lose. Or worse, since Elon and Larry are friends, the expected disruptive could get co-opted. And what would that say about the problem? Conjuring Elon is not bringing a gun to a knife fight. It was never a knife fight.
Recommended.
Another look at the New Jersey drone evidence
Here is the chain of examples, one can assume not all are represented properly, nonetheless I remain stumped.
Tetlock on Testing Grand Theories with AI
Testing grand theories of politics (or economics) is difficult because such theories are always contingent on ceteris paribus assumptions but outside of a lab, all else is rarely the same. The great Philip Tetlock has run multi-decade forecasting experiments but these are time and resource consuming. Tetlock, however, now suggests that LLMs could speed the process of testing grand theories like Mearsheimer’s neo-realism theory of politics:
With current or soon to be available technology, we can instruct large language models (LLMs) to reconstruct the perspectives of each school of thought, circa 1990,and then attempt to mimic the conditional forecasts that flow most naturally from each intellectual school. This too would be a multi-step process:
1. Ensuring the LLMs can pass ideological Turing tests and reproduce the assumptions, hypotheses and forecasts linked to each school of thought. For instance, does Mearsheimer see the proposed AI model of his position to be a reasonable approximation? Can it not only reproduce arguments that Mearsheimer explicitly endorsed from 1990-2024 but also reproduce claims that Mearsheimer never made but are in the spirit of his version of neorealism. Exploring views on historical counterfactual claims would be a great place to start because the what-ifs let us tease out the auxiliary assumptions that neo-realists must make to link their assumptions to real-world forecasts. For instance, can the LLMs predict how much neorealists would change their views on the inevitability of Russian expansionism if someone less ruthless than Putin had succeeded Yeltsin? Or if NATO had halted its expansion at the Polish border and invited Russia to become a candidate member of both NATO and the European Union?
2. Once each school of thought is satisfied that the LLMs are fairly characterizing, not caricaturing, their views on recent history(the 1990-2024) period, we can challenge the LLMs to engage in forward-in-time reasoning. Can they reproduce the forecasts for 2025-2050 that each school of thought is generating now? Can they reproduce the rationales, the complex conditional propositions, underlying the forecasts—and do so to the satisfaction of the humans whose viewpoints are being mimicked?
3. The final phase would test whether the LLMs are approaching superhuman intelligence. We can ask the LLMs to synthesize the best forecasts and rationales from the human schools of thought in the 1990-2024 period, and create a coherent ideal-observer framework that fits the facts of the recent past better than any single human school of thought can do but that also simultaneously recognizes the danger of over-fitting the facts (hindsight bias). We can also then challenge these hypothesized-to-be-ideal-observer LLM s to make more accurate forecasts on out-of-sample questions, and craft better rationales, than any human school of thought.
La ciudad lineal
When does it make sense to organize most of your urban activity on a (more or less) straight line?
If land transport is very costly, as in much earlier times, and a river is available, you might build much of the town right on the river bank. You can see remnants of this if you travel along the Rhine, though those developments have since expanded in other directions. Volgograd partially matches this description as well, or so I am told. But since river transport has declined in importance, such modes of urban organization have fallen out of favor and for obvious reasons.
Might some new technology resurrect the relevance of linear spatial organization?
Perhaps a very rapid airport people mover can make linear organization non-crazy, but I do not see that it would privilege linear organization. Does not Istanbul airport have a fairly linear structure? But how scalable is that?
The Saudi plans for Neom attempt to resurrect a very strong and strict linear model, based on a new mode of transport. From Wikipedia:
The Line is eventually planned to be 170 kilometres (110 miles) long. It could stretch from the Red Sea approximately to the city of Tabuk and could have nine million residents, resulting in an average population density of 260,000 per square kilometre (670,000/sq mi)…Early plans proposed an underground railway with 510-kilometre-per-hour (317 mph) trains that could travel from one end of The Line to the other in 20 minutes.
Supposedly all the shops and sites would be within a five-minute walk of line stops.
Of course this plan may not happen. But the 317-mph train is essential to the idea. Just hop on, and travel at super-rapid speeds to where you want to go. Presumably there are enough tracks with enough stops, like those newish programmable elevators, that you won’t have to accelerate and decelerate too many times. But, as the number of desirable stops proliferates, that ends up translating into an impractical number of separate individual train tracks.
The core problem seems to be that a linear city requires both super-rapid transport and not too many desirable stops. It is hard to pull off that combination in the modern world.
Is Conakry the closest the world has to a truly linear city?
Probably that map is a bear sign for the idea.
To read about this topic, you might try:
von Thunen, The Isolated City.
Arturo Soria y Puig, La Ciudad Lineal.
Cerda, The Five Bases of the General Theory of Urbanization, edited by Arturo Soria y Puig.
N.A. Miliutin, Sotsgorod: The Problem of Building Socialist Cities.
And ask your local GPT.
Austin Vernon on drones (from my email)
The offensive vs. defensive framing seems wrong, at least temporarily. It should be motivated vs. unmotivated, with drones favoring the motivated.
A competent drone capability requires building a supply chain, setting up a small manufacturing/assembly operation, and training skilled operators. They need to manage frequencies and adjust to jamming. Tight integration of these functions is a necessity. That favors highly motivated groups with broad popularity (recruiting skilled talent!) even if they are nominally weak.
Conversely, it can be challenging for overly corrupt or complacent organizations to counter. They are also more likely to fracture and lose cohesion when under attack.
We’ve seen HTS, Burmese rebels, and Azerbaijan all have a lot of success with drones. Ukraine went from hopelessly behind in drone tech to leading Russia in innovation in many niches.
It seems reasonable that the barriers to entry for a motivated drone “startup” will go up. The US military has effective, expensive interceptors like Coyote Block II to counter small attacks in locations like Syria. Fighting larger entities requires pretty absurd scaling to match enemy numbers and the low per-flight success rate – Ukraine claims they might produce millions of drones this year. Hamas had initial success attacking Israel on Oct. 7 but didn’t have the magazine depth to defend themselves.
AI targeting, the necessity of specialized components to defeat electronic warfare, and cheaper drone interceptors are all factors that could upset this balance. Entities that have the scale to deploy an AI stack, true factories, and specialized components should gain the advantage if the rate of change slows.
Markets in everything, personal fire hydrant edition
The latest sought-after home amenity? Personal fire hydrants. The logic is that when there’s a major disaster there may not be enough fire engines to protect every house in an area. If homeowners have their own hydrant ready to go—along with hoses, nozzles and adapters—and are trained to use it all, that could help reduce the number of homes destroyed.
Real-estate agents say mentioning a personal fire hydrant in the marketing materials now helps sell homes. “People notice it. It’s definitely a plus,” says Stephen Kotsenburg of Christie’s International Real Estate, who has the listing for a four-bedroom, three-bathroom, 3,388-square-foot home in Park City, Utah. It’s on the market for $2.1 million and advertises a fire hydrant, which is painted bright red and is visible as you come up the driveway.
Victoria Waldorf is the listing agent for a five-bedroom, three-bathroom, 4,691-square-foot house that is for sale for $1.775 million in Agua Dulce, Calif. She says she points out the personal fire hydrant to everyone who comes through for a viewing. “There’s relief in people’s faces,” she says.
Here is more from the WSJ, via Daniel Lippmann.
How is the Russian war economy doing?
Here is a gloomy account from Vladimir Mirov:
Ruble depreciation will contribute to inflation even further, as Russia is continued to be heavily reliant on imports – this is a kind of self-sustaining spiral. I also strongly disagree with those who say that cheaper ruble is “good” for exporters and the budget. Exporters have yet to make good use of devaluing ruble – which they can’t do, because Russia is under all sorts of embargoes, and China and other Global South countries are not opening their markets to most Russian goods. As to the budget, the effect is much more complex than many consider: on one hand, budget gets more rubles from export revenues due to ruble depreciation, while minimizing ruble-nominated costs. On the other hand, though, higher inflation and costlier imports will, in my view, more than offset these budget-positive effects.
I think we have to look at the situation in a more complex way. Sharp ruble depreciation is a mere illustration of Russia’s deepening economic woes. Nearly three years since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian economy is stranded. No new sustainable economic model has been found. Import substitution is not working. China is only buying our most basic commodities at heavy discounts, while keeping its market closed for other Russian goods. There’s no investment or technology coming into Russia from China and other Global South countries. Everything is dependent on state subsidies – but the government’s financial reserves are running thin. if you listen to industry and business speakers at the most recent economic fora, there’s an endless stream of begging – we won’t survive with state subsidies for this, state support for that, we haven’t got technology, haven’t got investment, haven’t got profitability, haven’t got workforce. etc. Makes one wonder – what have you got then?
There is much more at the link, bearish throughout.
You Have Been Warned
New paper in Science, A single mutation in bovine influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin switches specificity to human receptors. If that isn’t clear enough, here is the editor’s summary:
In 2021, a highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus was detected in North America that is capable of infecting a diversity of avian species, marine mammals, and humans. In 2024, clade 2.3.4.4b virus spread widely in dairy cattle in the US, causing a few mild human cases, but retaining specificity for avian receptors. Historically, this virus has caused up to 30% fatality in humans, so Lin et al. performed a genetic and structural analysis of the mutations necessary to fully switch host receptor recognition. A single glutamic acid to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk. —Caroline Ash
Time to stock up on Tamiflu and Xofluza.
Addendum: See also A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in History
China markets in everything
This is very interesting, and I think a world first: a local government in China has just sold its sky, literally. This is the government of Pingyin County, Jinan, Shandong Province who sold for 924 million yuan (approximately $130 million) a 30-year concession to operate and maintain its low-altitude economic projects to a company called Shandong Jinyu General Aviation Co., Ltd. The “low-altitude economy” is a big trend in China at the moment. XPeng, one of China’s leading EV manufacturers, recently released a low-altitude flying car for instance. Drone deliveries are becoming increasingly common in Chinese cities, and various regions are actively developing low-altitude transportation networks. Shanghai, for instance, plans to establish 400 low-altitude flight routes by 2027. But this is the first time a local government has monetized its low-altitude airspace…
Here is more from Arnaud Bertrand. Via Jesper.
A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in History
Zeynep Tufekci writing in the NYTimes hits the nail on the head:
The H5N1 avian flu, having mutated its way across species, is raging out of control among the nation’s cattle, infecting roughly a third of the dairy herds in California alone. Farmworkers have so far avoided tragedy, as the virus has not yet acquired the genetic tools to spread among humans. But seasonal flu will vastly increase the chances of that outcome. As the colder weather drives us all indoors to our poorly ventilated houses and workplaces, we will be undertaking an extraordinary gamble that the nation is in no way prepared for.
All that would be more than bad enough, but we face these threats gravely hobbled by the Biden administration’s failure — one might even say refusal — to respond adequately to this disease or to prepare us for viral outbreaks that may follow.
…Devastating influenza pandemics arise throughout the ages because the virus is always looking for a way in, shape shifting to jump among species in ever novel forms. Flu viruses have a special trick: If two different types infect the same host — a farmworker with regular flu who also gets H5N1 from a cow — they can swap whole segments of their RNA, potentially creating an entirely new and deadly virus that has the ability to spread among humans. It’s likely that the 1918 influenza pandemic, for example, started as a flu virus of avian origin that passed through a pig in eastern Kansas. From there it likely infected its first human victim before circling the globe on a deadly journey that killed more people than World War I.
And that’s why it’s such a tragedy that the Biden administration didn’t — or couldn’t — do everything necessary to snuff out the U.S. dairy cattle infection when the outbreak was smaller and easier to address.
Will there be a large outbreak among humans? Probably not. But a 9% probabability of a bad event warrants more than a shrug. Bad doesn’t have to be on the scale of COVID-bad to warrant precaution. The 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, while relatively mild, infected about 61 million people in the U.S., leading to 274,000 hospitalizations, 12,400 deaths, and billions of dollars in economic costs.
H5N1 will likely pass us over—but only the weak rely on luck. Strong civilizations don’t pray for mercy from microbes; they crush them. Each new outbreak should leave us not relieved, but better armed, better trained and better prepared for nature’s next assault.
Assisted dying in the UK
I would say that overall I am more suspicious of “assisted dying” policies than are many of my libertarian friends. I am fine with legalizing suicide, but I get nervous when a state — especially a less than fully competent, fiscally strapped state — enters the picture with so much influence over the proceedings. In the longer term, no matter how the legislation is initially written, what will be the incentives of that state? What will be the incentives of family members and legal guardians?
That said, I do recognize that as medical technology and life-saving techniques advance, something has to give. We can’t just keep tens of millions of people hooked up to life support for decades.
I do not have any “top down” way of resolving all of the difficult moral and practical issues here. I will simply note that the returns to federalism have risen. Different American states can try out different policies, as indeed they do, and we can see what is happening and judge accordingly.
I believe this point remains underrated. As technology advances, and the world changes more rapidly, the returns to federalism rise. We are coming off a long period when the returns to federalism were relatively low.
I am more optimistic about England than many people, but this is one of my worries. Devolution doesn’t quite do the same, but rather means that for anything England does, two other polities are likely to choose something even worse.
Debankings
For reasons you can guess at, debanking has been the topic du jour in my Twitter feed.
I will only report the following. On this last Friday, both Alex and I (coincidentally) each wanted to send money through the U.S. banking system. For each of us it was a major pain, and for no good substantive reason. I do understand why the relevant constraints are there, but at some point “justification” is no longer enough. People have to actually want to use the system. And the U.S. banking system — referring to that notion narrowly — is increasingly unattractive. It is also failing various market tests, if you look at its relative import over time.
How innovative is it? How good is it with software? How international is it in scope and potential usage? How necessary is it for lending? Can it integrate with crypto? Why does service quality at my local bank continue to decline? Relative performance is sliding, there is no other way to put it.
Yonas is in fact not a terrorist, and he did eventually get his money, after considerable frustration on my part and probably on his as well.
Ths status quo, relative to alternatives, likely will get worse as the pace of innovation increases. So rather than defend debankings, a better tack is to tell us how you will fix the problems you have created with the status quo. Debankings are simply the canary in the coal mine, no matter what percentage of them you may think are justified, or not.
John Arnold has some good tweets on the topic, start here. Here is Dennis Porter.