Category: Data Source
Specialization trends in economics
This article conducts a comprehensive analysis of specialization trends within and across fields of economics research. We collect data on 24,273 articles published between 1970 and 2016 in general research economics outlets and employ machine learning techniques to enrich the collected data. Results indicate that theory and econometric methods papers are becoming increasingly specialized, with a narrowing scope and steady or declining citations from outside economics and from other fields of economics research. Conversely, applied papers are covering a broader range of topics, receiving more extramural citations from fields like medicine, and psychology. Trends in applied theory articles are unclear.
That is from a new paper by Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro H. Gálvez, and Ian Nachman, via Robin Hanson.
Does the internet limit immigrant assimilation?
This paper documents the effects of new communication technologies on immigrants’ socio-economic integration, spatial and job segregation, and networking behavior. Combining data on home-country Internet expansion shocks with data on immigrants’ linguistic skill, naturalization, location choice, and employment in the US, I find that home-country Internet slows down immigrants’ social and economic integration. The effect is driven by lower-skilled and younger immigrants. On the other hand, home-country Internet decreases spatial and job segregation with co-nationals, and increases immigrants’ subjective well-being. For the mechanisms, I use the American Time Use Survey data to show that home-country Internet changes networking behavior of immigrants. I also explore the role of (i) return intentions, (ii) international phone calls, and (iii) Facebook usage. The evidence is consistent with a simple Roy model, augmented with a choice between destination- and origin-country ties. Overall, this paper shows how new ICTs transform the links between immigration, diversity, and social cohesion.
That is from the job market paper of Alexander Yarkin from Brown University.
Germany fact of the day, the work culture that is German
Workers missed an average of 19.4 days because of illness in 2023, according to Techniker Krankenkasse, the country’s largest public health insurance provider.
Preliminary figures suggest the trend is on course to continue its upward trajectory, TK told the Financial Times, exacerbating challenges for an economy that many expect to contract for the second year running in 2024.
While it is notoriously difficult to compare data from country to country, Christopher Prinz, an expert on employment at the OECD, said Germany was “definitely among the higher countries” when it came to sick leave.
study published in January by the German Association of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies (VFA), an industry body, found that were it not for the country’s above-average number of sick days, the German economy would have grown 0.5 per cent last year, rather than shrinking 0.3 per cent.
Here is more from Laura Pitel at the Financial Times. Via Roland Stephen.
The evolution of nepotism in academia, 1088-1800
We have constructed a comprehensive database that traces the publications of father–son pairs in the premodern academic realm and examined the contribution of inherited human capital versus nepotism to occupational persistence. We find that human capital was strongly transmitted from parents to children and that nepotism declined when the misallocation of talent across professions incurred greater social costs. Specifically, nepotism was less common in fields experiencing rapid changes in the knowledge frontier, such as the sciences and within Protestant institutions. Most notably, nepotism sharply declined during the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment, when departures from meritocracy arguably became both increasingly inefficient and socially intolerable.
That is from a new paper by David de la Croix & Marc Goñi. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The Health and Employment Effects of Employer Vaccination Mandates
Health care facilities considering mandating staff vaccination face a difficult tradeoff. While additional vaccination coverage will directly reduce disease transmission within the facility, the imposition of a mandate may also cause vaccine-hesitant staff to quit, which could harm patient care. To study this tradeoff, we leverage comprehensive administrative data covering virtually all US nursing homes, including payroll-based records on approximately 500 million daily nurse shifts and weekly data on COVID transmission and mortality at each facility. We use a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the impact of employer-imposed vaccine mandates at 581 nursing homes on disease spread, employment outcomes, and several patient care metrics. While mandates did slightly increase staff turnover, the effects were concentrated on staff working less than 20 hours per week, and resulted in a reduction of less than two minutes per patient-day. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence of lower levels of care at mandate facilities in typically-monitored conditions such as patient falls, pressure ulcers, or urinary tract infections. In contrast, implementing a vaccine mandate led to large increases in staff vaccinations at mandate facilities, which directly led to less transmission of and lower patient mortality from COVID. We estimate that vaccine mandates saved one patient life for every two facilities that enacted a mandate, a large effect given the typical facility has around 100 beds. Our results suggest that the health benefits of mandates far outweigh the costs in terms of reduced patient care from staff turnover.
Yup. For some of you, it is time to read it and weep. Here is the full paper by
Gossip phrased with concern provides advantages in female intrasexual competition
Although many women report being victimized by gossip, fewer report spreading negative gossip. Female gossipers might be unaware they are gossiping if they disclose such statements out of concern for targets. Four studies (N = 1709) investigated whether women believe their gossip is motivated by concern and whether expressing concern for targets insulates female gossipers against social costs, while simultaneously impairing targets’ reputations. Study 1 examined sex differences in gossip motivations. Compared to men, women endorsed stronger concern than harm motivations, especially when gossiping about other women, suggesting these motivations characterize female intrasexual gossip. In Study 2, female gossipers who phrased their negative gossip with concern (versus maliciously or neutrally) were evaluated as more trustworthy and desirable as social and romantic partners. Study 3 replicated the favorable evaluations of concerned female gossipers. Female participants especially disliked malicious female gossipers, suggesting professions of concern might help to avoid women’s scorn. Male participants reported lower romantic interest in female gossip targets when they learned concern (versus malicious or no) gossip, suggesting concerned gossip can harm female targets’ romantic prospects. Study 4 revealed these patterns extend to face-to-face interactions. A female gossiper was preferred as a social partner when she phrased her gossip with concern versus maliciously. Moreover, concerned gossip harmed perceptions of the female target as effectively as malicious gossip. Altogether, findings suggest that negative gossip delivered with concern effectively harms female targets’ reputations, while also protecting gossipers’ reputations, indicating a viable strategy in female intrasexual competition.
That is from a recent paper by Reynolds, Vaner, and Baumeister. Via a loyal MR reader.
What predicts success in science?
How does a person’s childhood socioeconomic status (SES) influence their chances to participate and succeed in science? To investigate this question, we use machine-learning methods to link scientists in a comprehensive biographical dictionary, the American Men of Science (1921), with their childhood home in the US Census and with publications. First, we show that children from low-SES homes were already severely underrepresented in the early 1900s. Second, we find that SES influences peer recognition, even conditional on participation: Scientists from high-SES families have 38% higher odds of becoming stars, controlling for age, publications, and disciplines. Using live-in servants as an alternative measure for SES confirms the strong link between childhood SES and becoming a star. Applying text analysis to assign scientists to disciplines, we find that mathematics is the only discipline in which SES influences stardom through the number and the quality of a scientist’s publications. Using detailed data on job titles to distinguish academic from industry scientists, we find that industry scientists have lower odds of being stars. Controlling for industry employment further strengthens the link between childhood SES and stardom. Elite undergraduate degrees explain more of the correlation between SES and stardom than any other control. At the same time, controls for birth order, family size, foreign-born parents, maternal education, patents, and connections with existing stars leave estimates unchanged, highlighting the importance of SES.
That is from a new NBER working paper by Anna Airoldi and Petra Moser.
The Declining Relative Quality of the Child Care Workforce
Although it is widely acknowledged that high-skilled teachers are integral to service quality and young children’s well-being in child care settings, little is known about the qualifications and skills of the child care workforce. This paper combines data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the quality of individuals employed in the child care sector. I find that today’s workforce is relatively low-skilled: child care workers have less schooling than those in other occupations, they score substantially lower on tests of cognitive ability, and they are among the lowest-paid individuals in the economy. I also show that the relative quality of the child care workforce is declining, in part because higher-skilled individuals increasingly find the child care sector less attractive than other occupations. Furthermore, I provide evidence that at least three other factors may be associated with the decline in worker quality. First, the recent proliferation of community college programs offering child care-related certificates and degrees may divert students away from attending four-year schools. Second, those majoring in child care-related fields are negatively selected for their cognitive skills, thereby decreasing the quality of the child care labor pool. Third, I show that the increased availability of outside employment options for high-skilled women had a detrimental effect on the quality of the child care workforce.
That is from a new paper by Chris M. Herbst. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
Fluoride revisionism?
I am usually skeptical of such efforts, but Journal of Health Economics is quite a serious outlet:
Community water fluoridation has been named one of the 10 greatest public health achievements of the 20th century for its role in improving dental health. Fluoride has large negative effects at high doses, clear benefits at low levels, and an unclear optimal dosage level. I leverage county-level variation in the timing of fluoride adoption, combined with restricted U.S. Census data that link over 29 million individuals to their county of birth, to estimate the causal effects of childhood fluoride exposure. Children exposed to community water fluoridation from age zero to five are worse off as adults on indices of economic self-sufficiency (−1.9% of a SD) and physical ability and health (−1.2% of a SD). They are also significantly less likely to graduate high school (−1.5 percentage points) or serve in the military (−1.0 percentage points). These findings challenge existing conclusions about safe levels of fluoride exposure.
That new article is by Adam Roberts. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001-2022
This article reconciles conflicting views about the political landscape of corporate America with new data on the revealed political preferences of 97,469 corporate directors and executives at 9,005 different U.S. companies. I find that average ideology for these individuals has shifted meaningfully to the left over time, changing from modestly conservative in 2001 to roughly centrist by 2022. This finding supports a middle-ground position between conventional wisdom casting “big business” as a conservative stronghold and revisionist views holding the opposite. Counterfactual simulations and a difference-in-differences design suggest multifaceted causes for these changes, and hand-collected data on corporate stances on LGBTQ-related legislation coupled with an instrumental variables design indicate that individual ideology has large effects on firm-level political activity. Overall, this transformation has profound implications for American politics, as the individuals comprising one of the most powerful interest groups—corporate elites—appear to be fracturing ideologically and to some degree even switching sides.
That is from a new paper by Reilly Steel.
Letters of recommendation
We analyze 6,400 letters of recommendation for more than 2,200 economics and finance Ph.D. graduates from 2018 to 2021. Letter text varies significantly by field of interest, with significantly less positive and shorter letters for Macroeconomics and Finance candidates. Letters for female and Black or Hispanic job candidates are weaker in some dimensions, while letters for Asian candidates are notably less positive overall. We introduce a new measure of letter quality capturing candidates that are recommended to “top” departments. Female, Asian, and Black or Hispanic candidates are all less likely to be recommended to top academic departments, even after controlling for other letter characteristics. Finally, we examine early career outcomes and find that letter characteristics, especially a “top” recommendation have meaningful effects on initial job placements and journal publications.
That is from a new paper by Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
U.S.A. facts of the day
The U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation minority staff (Committee), which oversees federal science agencies including NSF, analyzed 32,198 Prime Award grants NSF awarded to 2,443 different entities with project start dates between January 2021 and April 2024.
Committee analysis found 3,483 grants, more than ten percent of all NSF grants and totaling over $2.05 billion in federal dollars, went to questionable projects that promoted diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) tenets or pushed onto science neo-Marxist perspectives about enduring class struggle. The Committee grouped these grants into five categories: Status, Social Justice, Gender, Race, and Environmental Justice. For the purposes for this report, “DEI funding,” a “DEI grant,” or “DEI research” refers to taxpayer dollars NSF provided to a research or engagement program that fell into one of these five groups.
Here is the full report. Note that by early 2024, that figure had risen to 27 percent.
Who benefits from working with AI?
We use a controlled experiment to show that ability and belief calibration jointly determine the benefits of working with Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI improves performance more for people with low baseline ability. However, holding ability constant, AI assistance is more valuable for people who are calibrated, meaning they have accurate beliefs about their own ability. People who know they have low ability gain the most from working with AI. In a counterfactual analysis, we show that eliminating miscalibration would cause AI to reduce performance inequality nearly twice as much as it already does.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
Further evidence for the babysitting theory of education
Bryan Caplan will feel vindicated:
This paper asks whether universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) raises parents’ earnings and how much these earnings effects matter for evaluating the economic returns to UPK programs. Using a randomized lottery design, we estimate the effects of enrolling in a full-day UPK program in New Haven, Connecticut on parents’ labor market outcomes as well as educational expenditures and children’s academic performance. During children’s pre-kindergarten years, UPK enrollment increases weekly childcare coverage by 11 hours. Enrollment has limited impacts on children’s academic outcomes between kindergarten and 8th grade, likely due to a combination of rapid effect fadeout and substitution away from other programs of similar quality but with shorter days. In contrast, parents work more hours, and their earnings increase by 21.7%. Parents’ earnings gains persist for at least six years after the end of pre-kindergarten. Excluding impacts on children, each dollar of net government expenditure yields $5.51 in after-tax benefits for families, almost entirely from parents’ earnings gains. This return is large compared to other labor market policies. Conversely, excluding earnings gains for parents, each dollar of net government expenditure yields only $0.46 to $1.32 in benefits, lower than many other education and children’s health interventions. We conclude that the economic returns to investing in UPK are high, largely because of full-day UPK’s effectiveness as an active labor market policy.
Here is more from Note by the way that these externalities end up internalized in higher wages for the parents, so at least in this data set there is no obvious case for public provision of a subsidized alternative.
The decline in retail sales jobs
It is steeper than I had thought:
The final labor market trend we uncovered was a very rapid decline in retail sales jobs, show in the figure below. Retail sales hovered at around 7.5 percent of employment from 2003 to 2013 but has since fallen to only 5.7 percent of employment, a decline about 25 percent in just a decade. Put another way – the U.S. economy added 19 million total jobs between 2013 and 2023 but lost 850 thousand retail sales jobs. The decline started well before the pandemic.
And STEM jobs truly are on the rise, even though that is what they may be telling you in school:
The figure also shows rapid employment growth in business and management jobs. The fastest growing occupations in that category are science and engineering managers, management analysts, and other business operations specialists. This is especially striking because STEM employment declined slightly between 2000 and 2012.
With a good picture at the link. That is all from David Deming, with further interesting material throughout.