Category: Uncategorized

The UAPs [UFOs] report

by  Tyler Cowen in

You can read it here.  I don’t think it clarifies much, other than to stress the multiple sources of sensor data for the observations and the inexplicability of some number of the sightings, well into triple digits.  So you can put aside Mick West, PewdiePie, and the like.  It is “real stuff” being measured, no matter how you might account for the observations, not just shaky camera movements and flocks of birds.

The report also makes clear how poorly funded and chaotic the investigation has been to date.  That is hardly a surprise, but isn’t it about time we did something properly right off the bat?

I’ll fall back on my “sincerity is the most underrated political motive” view.  I think our own government is genuinely puzzled, as I am, and as you should be.  I would stress my earlier points that we don’t have many reliable intuitions to fall back upon for thinking through this problem.

I believe the governmental message will be: “We are not sure, so for reasons of national security we have to move forward assuming some of these devices are from foreign powers.”  That will rather rapidly meld into “foreign powers.”  In any case that will keep the issue alive.  Furthermore, if it is our earthbound adversaries, at some point we will know this for sure, for reasons of intelligence or eventual public use of the devices, or our ability to construct the same.  By the way, if you are convinced by the “adversaries” take, you should update lots of your views on foreign policy!  (Will you?  Will anyone?)  America would have a lot more to be afraid of.

It is important to resist jumping to conclusions here, if only because doing so will dull your critical faculties on this issue.  In any case I will continue to follow developments in this area.

Is blockchain puny?

by  Tyler Cowen in

Here is a new and intriguing idea (link now fixed) from StarkWare, a blockchain start-up based in Israel.  Authored by Eli Ben-Sasson, here is one excerpt:

Imagine if we accepted, for the foreseeable future, that we can only write on a given blockchain ten times per second, but instead of writing ten single transactions, made ten additions to the blockchain, each attesting to thousands of transactions. Despite the scale-up, there would be no significant rise in the number of kilobytes being added to the chain.

In short, I’m talking about a fix that would mean the same blockchains that I brazenly called puny would suddenly become mighty.

This fix is the adoption of  cryptographic proofs — a concept that captured my imagination when I was a PhD student under Professor Avi Wigderson, one of the pioneers of this area of mathematics, and when I was a postdoc under Professor Madhu Sudan, another of the founding fathers of this field. After 20 years in academia, today I am president of StarkWare (@StarkWareLtd on Twitter), a company I co-founded to move this fix from the realm of theory to reality – a reality that will scale-up blockchain to an unprecedented degree.

Currently, Bitcoin establishes integrity the way you do it with your waiter or waitress. As you sit at your table, the waiting staff present a bill with the food you ordered, taking up the role of the “prover.” You check the calculation — making you the “verifier.”

With Bitcoin, the miner of a new block is the “prover.” Every block acts as proof that the payments contained in it are valid. And the nodes, meaning the many computers which host and synchronize a copy of the entire Bitcoin blockchain, naively replay each transaction in the block to verify that it is correct.

With cryptographic proofs, instead of recording this data-heavy information to the blockchain, we write on the chain in a kind of shorthand — proofs which verify that transactions have been conducted with integrity. All the heavy computational lift, meaning the work done to obtain the proof, happens in the cloud, not the blockchain.

It is logic we’re all familiar with in other areas of life. A large company may have its flagship office in central Manhattan, but wouldn’t dream of using such prime real estate for its huge factory, where the heavy lifting takes place.

Stay tuned….

Why is it OK to be mean to the ugly?

by  Tyler Cowen in

That is the new NYT David Brooks column, here is one excerpt:

Not all the time, but often, the attractive get the first-class treatment. Research suggests they are more likely to be offered job interviews, more likely to be hired when interviewed and more likely to be promoted than less attractive individuals. They are more likely to receive loans and more likely to receive lower interest rates on those loans.

The discriminatory effects of lookism are pervasive. Attractive economists are more likely to study at high-ranked graduate programs and their papers are cited more often than papers from their less attractive peers. One study found that when unattractive criminals committed a moderate misdemeanor, their fines were about four times as large as those of attractive criminals.

Daniel Hamermesh, a leading scholar in this field, observed that an American worker who is among the bottom one-seventh in looks earns about 10 to 15 percent less a year than one in the top third. An unattractive person misses out on nearly a quarter-million dollars in earnings over a lifetime.

The overall effect of these biases is vast. One 2004 study found that more people report being discriminated against because of their looks than because of their ethnicity.

In a study published in the current issue of the American Journal of Sociology, Ellis P. Monk Jr., Michael H. Esposito and Hedwig Lee report that the earnings gap between people perceived as attractive and unattractive rivals or exceeds the earnings gap between white and Black adults. They find the attractiveness curve is especially punishing for Black women. Those who meet the socially dominant criteria for beauty see an earnings boost; those who don’t earn on average just 63 cents to the dollar of those who do.

Recommended.

Liquidity trap for me but not for thee?

by  Tyler Cowen in

The idea has not held up.  As I write the rate on 6-month T-Bills is 0.06%.  That is pretty close to zero, right?

And yet everyone is debating what will happen with the rate of price inflation.  No one is claiming it is indeterminate, as the simplest liquidity trap models suggest.  Nor, with rising rates of price inflation, can it be argued that inflation inertia is dominant.  Instead, it is obvious that the Fed has let the current inflation happen.  It is true that the inflationary pressures stem from (roughly) coordinated acts of monetary and fiscal policy, rather than monetary policy alone.  But no one is doubting that the Fed is in charge of forthcoming rates of inflation.

(And if the T-Bill rate is ever so slightly above zero, rather than at or below zero, that too seems to stem from higher expected rates of price inflation in the first place.)

I agree with those individuals who suggest that the currently higher rates of price inflation will not be with us 4-5 years from now, and that is because the Fed does not want that to happen.

Paul Krugman recently wrote (NYT):

Seriously, both recent data and recent statements from the Federal Reserve have, well, deflated the case for a sustained outbreak of inflation. For that case has always depended on asserting that the Fed is either intellectually or morally deficient (or both). That is, to panic over inflation, you had to believe either that the Fed’s model of how inflation works is all wrong or that the Fed would lack the political courage to cool off the economy if it were to become dangerously overheated.

In other words, the Fed to a considerable degree can indeed control the rate of price inflation, and with nominal T-Bill rates very close to zero.  Open market operations on T-Bills alone won’t do it, but of course the Fed can use the expectations channel, and can deal in other assets as well — just as they do when they wish to be more expansive.  Or maybe you think it is the promised currency path (not my view), but that too would be effective in either direction, if desired.  Thus the liquidity trap doctrine is dead, discarded once it no longer provides an argument for an ever-more expansive fiscal policy.

Thursday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Do mongooses sit behind a Rawlsian veil of ignorance?

2. “…despite the socially progressive and egalitarian outlook traditionally associated with liberalism, the most liberal Democrats actually expressed the greatest dehumanization of Republicans.”  And how about this clincher: “…and demonstrates the need to develop more constructive outlets for social identity maintenance.”

3. Claims about Tether.

4. Solve for the fungi equilibrium?

5. Please let’s not regulate private space tourism.

6. Good piece on why the Benin bronzes should be returned (NYT).

7. There is progress after all.

Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients

by  Tyler Cowen in

Long-term complications after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are common in hospitalized patients, but the spectrum of symptoms in milder cases needs further investigation. We conducted a long-term follow-up in a prospective cohort study of 312 patients—247 home-isolated and 65 hospitalized—comprising 82% of total cases in Bergen during the first pandemic wave in Norway. At 6 months, 61% (189/312) of all patients had persistent symptoms, which were independently associated with severity of initial illness, increased convalescent antibody titers and pre-existing chronic lung disease. We found that 52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months, including loss of taste and/or smell (28%, 17/61), fatigue (21%, 13/61), dyspnea (13%, 8/61), impaired concentration (13%, 8/61) and memory problems (11%, 7/61). Our findings that young, home-isolated adults with mild COVID-19 are at risk of long-lasting dyspnea and cognitive symptoms highlight the importance of infection control measures, such as vaccination.

That is from a new Nature paper by Bjørn Blomberg, et.al. Via SK.  On vaccinating the young, here are further relevant observations from Francois Balloux.

Wednesday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Noah Smith interviews @pmarca.

2. Glad to see so many economists waking up to the potential tyranny of administrative law (in Spanish).  If there should be a jury trial for anything, it is sedition.

3. Early days of the comic book industry.  And the rise of the $10 million disc golf celebrity.

4.  Way back when, the major Keynesians endorsed Nixon’s wage and price controls.  Sigh…

5. Free Britney Spears!  Really (NYT).  “Ms. Spears, 39, expressed serious opposition to the conservatorship earlier and more often than had previously been known, and said that it restricted everything from whom she dated to the color of her kitchen cabinets.”  Now imagine being in this same position without her fame and her (only partially controlled) resources.  I find it remarkable how little our world cares about this issue.

6. “This looks like a post-apocalyptic scene from a Cinderella nightmare, but these faux chateaux are real!“

Racial segregation is increasing in many parts of America

by  Tyler Cowen in

Some of the nation’s largest metropolitan regions have become increasingly segregated in the last 30 years, underscoring racial inequalities that have led to poorer life outcomes in Black and brown neighborhoods, according to a study released Monday by the University of California Berkeley’s Othering & Belonging Institute.

The study found that 81% of regions with more than 200,000 residents were more segregated in 2019 than they were in 1990, despite fair housing laws and policies created to promote integration.

Some of the most segregated areas included Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit in the Midwest and New York, northern New Jersey and Philadelphia in the mid-Atlantic.

Conversely, large metropolitan regions that saw the biggest decrease in segregation included Savannah, Georgia, San Antonio and Miami.

Here is the full story, exactly as I argued in my earlier book The Complacent Class.  Via Ilya Novak.  And from the study, don’t forget this:

Southern states have lower overall levels of segregation, and the Mountain West and Plains states have the least

Ouch…!

Tuesday assorted links

by  Tyler Cowen

1. Updated data on unicorns, including Chinese numbers.

2. Those new Indian service sector jobs: A CCTV Company Is Paying Remote Workers in India to Yell at Armed Robbers.  And Stalin’s Economic Council.

3. NYT profile of Emily Oster.

4. What is ranked-choice voting, and why is NYC using it?

5. More arguments about Tether and crypto stability.

6. Why are so many people writing about social epistemology?

7. Happiness researcher Edward Diener has passed away (NYT).

Milton Friedman was once a Keynesian

by  Tyler Cowen in

In the early 1940s, Friedman’s own analysis of monetary policy adhered closely to the dismissive tone prevalent in much other Keynesian literature of that vintage.  His solo-authored contribution to 1943’s Taxing to Prevent Inflation, written while he was at the Treasury, plotted growth rates of the nominal money stock and nominal income for the United States for the period 1899-1929.  To the modern reader, the scatter plot in Friedman’s paper indicates that the monetary growth/income relationship is clearly positive, and reasonably tight by the standards of rate-of-change data.  That was not, however, the judgment Friedman reached in his 1943 paper, in which he concluded instead that the relationship was “extremely unstable.”

That is from p.95 of the recent Edward Nelson two-volume set on Milton Friedman — one of the best books written on any economist!

USA fact of the day

by  Tyler Cowen

The average U.S. customer loses power for 214 minutes per year. That compares to 70 in the United Kingdom, 53 in France, 29 in the Netherlands, 6 in Japan, and 2 minutes per year in Singapore. These outage durations tell only part of the story. In Japan, the average customer loses power once every 20 years. In the United States, it is once every 9 months, excluding hurricanes and other strong storms.

Here is the full article, via Ray Lopez.