*The Evolution of Progress*
The excellent Brink Lindsey pointed my attention to this fascinating book, subtitled The End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation (like many subtitles, that one is an exaggeration), wirtten by C. Owen Paepke and published in 1993. A brief book summary is here.
It is fascinating to read his take on how the biosciences will be the wave of the future and how much of human progress will come in the "interior" dimension. Here is one excerpt:
The United States enjoyed the dubious honor of leading a world-wide parade toward lesser productivity gains. The growth of both total factor productivity and labor productivity of every advanced economy, notably including Japan, has slowed since 1973. Only the newly industrialized countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, maintained or increased their productivity growth during the 1970s and 1980s, largely by exploiting innovations earlier pioneered in the advanced economies.
In fairness to the data, this productivity trend was temporarily reversed in the mid-1990s, for a few years, right after Paepke wrote. And:
By the middle of the next century, a new generation will surpass its precedessor, not in the traditional realm of possessions of life-style, but in the more fundamental one of genetic endowment.
It seems Paepke is a lawyer (one source has him running a pharmaceuticals company), here is Paepke on "Facebook like." Here is Paepke's patent for "affinity analysis." Here are Paepke's thirteen trademarks.
Assorted links
1. Via Chris F. Masse, which countries have the most dentists per capita? Also look for the UK on this list.
2. Charles Manson's letterhead. And: "There is no Great Stagnation."
3. Agnostic on TGS. Ryan Avent on TGS.
4. The behavioral economics gym, designed by Harvard students.
How do great entrepreneurs think?
Here is one interesting study:
That is not to say entrepreneurs don't have goals, only that those goals are broad and–like luggage–may shift during flight. Rather than meticulously segment customers according to potential return, they itch to get to market as quickly and cheaply as possible, a principle Sarasvathy calls affordable loss. Repeatedly, the entrepreneurs in her study expressed impatience with anything that smacked of extensive planning, particularly traditional market research. (Inc.'s own research backs this up. One survey of Inc. 500 CEOs found that 60 percent had not written business plans before launching their companies. Just 12 percent had done market research.)
…Sarasvathy explains that entrepreneurs' aversion to market research is symptomatic of a larger lesson they have learned: They do not believe in prediction of any kind. "If you give them data that has to do with the future, they just dismiss it," she says. "They don't believe the future is predictable…or they don't want to be in a space that is very predictable."
The article is interesting throughout and hat tip goes to The Browser.
www.flushtracker.com
Ben Goldacre writes:
I'm an infrastructure nerd. When someone's digging up the road, I want to peer in. When someone comes to fix the house, I want to see what happens under the floor. When I flush a poo away, I want to see where it goes next.
Visit the site here, and there are related links at the post. For the pointer I thank a loyal MR reader.
Stagnation is not just about technology
According to data based on students who graduated in June, 2009, 5.1 percent of Rochester students who entered high school in the 2005-06 school year graduated school prepared for college or a career.
Rochester's graduation rate for that period was 46.6 percent, but because few of those graduates passed regents exams with scores of 80 or higher in math and 75 or higher in English, they were not deemed college or career ready.
The story is here. In Syracuse and Buffalo, the readiness rate was a much higher fifteen percent. Of course when it comes to gdp, all of these expenditures on their high schools are valued at cost.
Is Los Angeles in trouble?
For over a decade, Gregg Donovan, former valet to Bob Hope, greeted tourists on the street in a top hat and red tailcoat and yelled "Welcome to Beverly Hills!" His original assigned job was to counter the impression — often derived from the Julia Roberts movie Pretty Woman — that Rodeo Drive was full of snooty sales clerks. He often would escort people into the shops by hand and ease their way into the culture and show them how friendly the place really is.
Now he has been laid off, another casualty of the recession. His image will live on:
Mr. Donovan has come to represent the city so thoroughly that there is now a debate over the rights to his likeness.
As part of the separation agreement sent to Mr. Donovan, the Conference and Tourism Board sought the right to continue to use his image on promotional materials. Mr. Donovan has refused to sign the agreement, his lawyer said.
It turns out Donovan is supposed to give up his personal rights to use his image in the job, which he does not want to do.
Elsewhere, Watts Towers — one of my favorite American landmarks — is facing budget cuts. The three city workers who look after the towers have been laid off, so there is an attempt to recruit the Los Angeles County Museum to do the work and also to renovate the site.
Felix’s law
Felix Salmon, that is:
One of the paradoxes of news media is that most of the time, the more you’re paying to use it, the harder it is to navigate. Sites like HuffPo make navigation effortless, while it can take weeks or months to learn how to properly use a Bloomberg or Westlaw terminal. Once the NYT implements its paywall, it’s locking itself into that broken system: it will be providing an expensive service to a self-selecting rich elite who are willing to put in the time to learn how to use it. Meanwhile, most Americans will happily get their news from friendlier and much more approachable free services like HuffPo.
Read the whole post, which is about the differences between Huffington Post and the NYT, interesting throughout. MR redesign is coming soon!
Creative style and achievement in ADHD adults
Here is the abstract:
Previous research has suggested that adults with ADHD perform better on some measures of creativity than non-ADHD adults. The present study replicated previous findings using a standardized measure of creativity (the Abbreviated Torrance Test for Adults, Goff & Torrance, 2002) and extended previous research by investigating real-world creative achievement among adults with ADHD. Results indicated that adults with ADHD showed higher levels of original creative thinking on the verbal task of the ATTA and higher levels of real-world creative achievement, compared to adults without ADHD. In addition, comparison of creative styles using the FourSight Thinking Profile (Puccio 2002) found that preference for idea generation was higher among ADHD participants, whereas preference for problem clarification and idea development was greater among non-ADHD participants. These findings have implications for real-world application of the creative styles of adults with and without ADHD.
The paper, by Holly A. White and Priti Shah, is here. Note that ADHD individuals score high on "verbal originality." Here is a previous White paper on ADHD and creativity.
It's also worth repeating the more general point that many (most?) ADHD individuals have a high variance of focus abilities, not a complete inability to focus on something. They can be some of the world's best focusers, under the right circumstances.
The Living Constitution
Laurence Tribe writes in today's New York Times regarding the health care law:
Since the New Deal, the court has consistently held that Congress has broad constitutional power to regulate interstate commerce. This includes authority over not just goods moving across state lines, but also the economic choices of individuals within states that have significant effects on interstate markets. By that standard, this law’s constitutionality is open and shut.
Quite so; but what Tribe forgets is that the constitution is a living document. The constitution's meaning is not fixed by the New Deal. The constitution evolves to meet the needs of the people in the here and now. Tribe's interpretation of the commerce clause, which may have been appropriate for the age of steel and iron, is not necessarily right for the age of genes and bytes. We are fortunate, the constitution lives.
Assorted links
*Endgame*, and the rationality of Bobby Fischer
The author is Frank Brady and the subtitle is Bobby Fischer's Remarkable Rise and Fall — from America's Brightest Prodigy to the Edge of Madness. It is sure to make my list of the best books of 2011 and it requires no real knowledge of chess. Here is an excerpt on the rationality of the young Fischer:
While they were waiting for the results, Bisguier asked Bobby why he's offered the draw to Shipman when he had a slight advantage and the outcome wasn't certain. If Bobby had won that game, he would have been the tournament's clear winner, a half point ahead of Bisguier. Bobby replied that he had more to gain than lose by the decision. He'd assumed that Bisguier would either win or draw his own game, and if so, Bobby would have at least a tie for first place. That meant a payday of $750 for each player, a virtual gold mine for Fischer. Recognizing Bobby's greater need for money than the capture of a title, however prestigious, Bisguier noted: "Evidently, his mature judgment is not solely confined to the chessboard."
Much later in Fischer's life:
…Bobby and Miyoko attended a screening [in Japan] of the American film Pearl Harbor. When the Japanese Zeroes began bombing the ships in Battleship Row and destroyed the USS Arizona, Bobby began clapping loudly. He was the only one in the theater to do do — much to the embarrassment of the Japanese. He said that he was shocked that no one else joined in.
There are many revelations in this book, including that Bobby turned to Catholicism in the last period of his life.
China fashion fact of the day
Men represent 45% of the $1.2-billion market for all luxury handbags in China, according to Victor Luis, president of Coach Retail International. That figure is just 7% in the U.S…
"It's crucial for business," said Zhang, who chose the chocolate-colored bag because he thought it was stylish without being flashy. "It shows I have good taste."
That's debatable, considering Zhang wore his hair in a cotton candy pouf. What's clear is that the designer handbag, long a fashion staple for stylish women worldwide, has become a status symbol for upwardly mobile men in China.
At business meetings and social events across China these days, many of the Prada, Louis Vuitton and Burberry bags are being toted by the fellows in the crowd.
Wang Zhongzhu, a 42-year-old insurance executive, wouldn't dream of networking without his $1,000 leather Dunhill slung over his shoulder. He said the creamy brown mini-messenger bag sends a message that he appreciates – and can afford – fine accessories.
According to the article, in China this is a sign that you are an alpha male. Here is more, and for the pointer I thank Daniel Lippman.
European sentences to ponder
It is surely not an attractive proposition for, say Spain, to have labour laws coming from Berlin, a currency from Frankfurt, but debts remaining in Spain.
And, in a nod to political business cycle theory:
Outsiders are often amazed to hear that all the bail-outs so far – the loan to Greece last year and the set-up of the European Financial Stability Facility last May – have not yet cost the taxpayer a penny. These are loans backed by guarantees. Once we start resolving the crisis for real, it will get expensive.
Both are from Wolfgang Münchau, in a very good piece. His bottom line:
I am not sure which crisis Ms Merkel’s resolution mechanism is going to resolve. The one I have been observing for the past year will carry on.
The culture that is Sweden
In recent decades, successive waves of immigrants have been coming to Sweden, and many avail themselves of the laws and take Swedish-sounding names to hasten their integration.
Mr. Ekengren recalled a case a few years ago in which an immigrant family requested permission to be called Mohammedsson.
“Permission was granted,” he said.
The article is interesting throughout.
Assorted links
1. Are these positive or negative graveyard externalities?
2. Mark Steckbeck on TGS, and Steve Horwitz. And Steve Sailer. More from Bryan.
3. The mud brick architecture of Yemen.
4. What are the bestsellers in the Netherlands? I just ordered book #1, which leads by a long way.
6. Prophets of the Marginal Revolution (hat tip to Bryan Caplan, who oddly implies I predicted incorrectly).