Mandates don’t stay modest, a continuing series

This remains an underreported story:

Should health insurers have to cover treatment of Lyme disease? What about speech therapy for autistic children? Or infertility treatments?

Can they limit the number of chemotherapy rounds allowed cancer patients? Or restrict the type of dialysis offered to people with kidney disease?

This week an independent advisory group convened by the Obama administration launched what is likely to be a long and emotional process to answer such questions…

Under the health-care overhaul law, beginning in 2014 all new insurance plans for individuals and small businesses will have to include a package of minimum "essential benefits" falling into 10 general categories – ranging from hospitalization, to prescription drugs, to rehabilitative and habilitative services. But Congress largely left it to Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius to decide how detailed to make the essential benefits package and what exactly to put in it.

Defenders of ACA do not in general like to confront the "at what margin?" question.  The rhetoric used to argue for the bill usually suggests that the mandate must indeed be extended.  I will keep my eye on this issue.  Here are previous installments in the series.

*The Return*

The author is Daniel Treisman and the subtitle is Russia's Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev.  Is this the first non-fiction book to be making my "Best of 2011" list?  Most of all, it argues persuasively that, rather than botching the transition away from communism, the Russians/Soviets did a remarkably good job, relative to what could have been expected.  It's also the best all-round book-length treatment of what the subtitle indicates and it is readable as well.  Excerpt:

But [under Putin] did the bureaucracy become more effective and the population safer?  The state certainly grew.  In Putin's eight years as president, about 363,000 additional bureaucrats were hired, mostly federal agents stationed in the regions.  Law enforcement mushroomed.  In the United States, there are two judges and prosecutorial employees per 10,000 residents.  When Putin took over, Russia had eight; when he left, it had fourteen.  Federal spending on law enforcement and national security rose from $4 billion in 1998 to $26 billion in 2007.

Despite this influx of resources, most indicators suggest the state became less, not more, effective.  It built less housing, paved fewer roads, and laid fewer water mains and gas lines per year than under Yeltsin.  The number of public schools and buses in service fell faster than before.  Reforms of the education and health systems were repeatedly postponed…As for keeping citizens safe, few saw any improvement.

Here is a recent review of the book from the WSJ; I liked the book more than he did.

When will people move away from pure AD theories of unemployment?

Commerce department figures on Friday showed that total sales in 2010 were up 6.8 per cent from 2009, marking the sharpest such increase in more than a decade…

Industrial output is up by 5.9 per cent year-on-year.

Yet the labor market is still "eh."  Here is more, but again note it is wrong to reject the AD factor altogether, though it seems to be becoming less relevant over time.  Arguably AD and AS are interacting in unusual and presumably deleterious ways.

I have read too many blog posts attacking a caricatured version of either RBC theory or a narrowly defined notion of "structural unemployment" which requires excess demand for labor in significant parts of the economy.  As Arnold Kling points out, the labor market shock can be asymmetric in its effects.

From a different direction, here is Scott Sumner criticizing the recalculation argument.  I read Scott as establishing the conclusion that both AD and AS must be at work.

The paradox of Tunisian water policy

One quality of life measure put Tunisia first in the Arab world.  If you look at water policy, the Tunisian government has long had a strong reputation.  Here is Wikipedia:

Tunisia has achieved the highest access rates to water supply and sanitation services among the MENA countries through sound infrastructure policy. 96% of urban dwellers and 52% of the rural population already have access to improved sanitation. By the end of 2006, the access to safe drinking water became close to universal (approaching 100% in urban areas and 90% in rural areas). Tunisia provides good quality drinking water throughout the year.

I've never been to Tunisia, but from readings I've found the country especially difficult to understand.  They've had a corrupt autocracy for a long time, but some areas of policy they get (inexplicably?) right.  And usually they are by far the least corrupt country in the Maghreb.  Dani Rodrik called the place an unsung development miracle.  Maybe that was exaggerating but for their neighborhood they still beat a lot of the averages and they've had a lot of upward gradients.  They've also made good progress on education.

And now this.  Perhaps it is no accident this is "the first time that protests have overthrown an Arab leader."  The lesson perhaps is that the path toward a much better world involves…small steps.  Civil society there is relatively strong and has been so for a while.  Democracy is probably not around the corner, but if you're studying social change it's worth spending a lot of time on why Tunisia and Jordan are often so much better run than the other Arab states.

The Music of the Market

Mr. Frost and his team work out of a small, beige corner office with arched windows that used to be a library. There, at about 10:15 most workday mornings, one of them pushes a button on a computer. Across Wall Street, three musical notes – an F, an E and a D – sound on trading terminals, alerting traders that the Fed is in the market.

From the NYTimes.

Hat tip Daniel Lippman.

Freakonomics blog to go indie and leave NYT

The scoop is here and for the pointer I thank Chris F. Masse.  Dubner emailed to Forbes:

Yes, we’re taking Freakonomics.com indie again because, even though the 3.5 years with NYT.com has been beyond great, a lot has changed in our universe since then – the film, a radio show, more books, etc. – and we’ve got a big appetite for uniting all these things, and a few more things, into one tight-knit little media channel known as Freakonomics.com. And we just couldn’t do that if the blog still lived at NYT.com. Paywall issue wasn’t a major consideration.

Will Paul Krugman end up behind a paywall?

What Belarus is really like

A hunter in Belarus was shot in the leg by a fox that he had wounded and was trying to kill.

The man was trying to finish the animal off with the butt of his rifle, but as the pair struggled the fox got its paw on the trigger of the gun and fired a shot.

Prosecutors from the Grodno region said the unnamed hunter ended up in hospital with a leg wound.

"The animal fiercely resisted and in the struggle accidentally pulled the trigger with its paw," the Telegraph quoted one prosecutor as saying.

The link is here, other versions of the story are hereIt is said that the fox got away.

Liberal Compromise and Conservative Power

Paul Krugman has complained bitterly that Obama has compromised the progressive agenda. A new Gallup poll shows that such compromise may be an almost inevitable result of conservative and liberal ideologies.

Gallup recently polled a sample of Americans on whether it was more important for politicians to stick with their beliefs, even if little is accomplished, or compromise and get something done. Very conservative Americans were markedly more in favor of politicians sticking with their beliefs while very liberal Americans voted for compromise.

  Gallup
Importantly, this tells us not just about the beliefs of conservatives and liberals but about the incentives of conservative and liberal politicians. Conservative politicians face a high price of compromise and liberal politicians face a low price. Moreover, everyone knows this so conservative politicians can credibly commit that they will not compromise while liberal politicians cannot. As a result, liberals compromise more than conservatives.

If you can pull it off, credibly commiting not to compromise is a neat trick because you can get more of what you want even without an increase in basic aspects of political power such as votes. But where does the credibility originate? Is it inherent to the respective ideologies? The term conservative certainly suggests an unwillingness to change let alone compromise. Or, to turn full circle, perhaps conservative politicians are better at using apocalyptic rhetoric to instill anti-compromise feeling in their constitutients which in turn gives conservative politicians greater power.

Hat tip to L. Indyk.

Should we use the price system for evacuation?

From Boettke:

Stigler reports that he received a letter from Tjallling Koopmans asking whether he had in fact advocated the use of the price system to evacuate NYC in case of a bombing during WWII.  Stigler responded that he had never even thought about the problem before, but upon reflecting on the problem that (1) upon the first bombing of NYC any system of evacuation would be chaotic and inefficient, but that (2) if the bombings were repeated, that indeed he would argue that the price system would be the most efficient way to handle the problem.

It depends on the counterfactual.  It is already the wealthy who have the resources to leave afflicted areas, or who had the resources to send their children to the countryside, in the case of bombed London during World War II.  You could pay a relative to take the kids in, rather than having to rely on the charitability of your relatives.  So very often we already are using the price system, and in a fairly orderly manner.

If you are evacuating a city suddenly, along a constrained road or path, ideally (at least by economic standards, which may or may not be your final moral theory) you wish to favor the people who are young, productive to others, and people who value their own lives highly and are risk-averse.  A market auction tends to favor the wealthy and in this context many of the first leavers in line will be inefficiently old, again with the moral caveat noted above.  The wealthy spend money on the basis of "if I die, my wealth is worthless or worth less because my bequest motive is less than full," whereas from a social point of view the wealth survives the death of the wealthy person.

If institutions will enforce the traditional "women and children first," with a minimum of corruption, that solution may be preferable to the auction.  Men are on average more productive than women in the labor force, but the number of replacement children in the longer run is more closely tied to the number of women than to the number of men.  So, indirectly, favoring women favors men too.

The private sector often chooses the rule of "women and children first," at least when the disaster is explicitly seen as such.  This rule was heeded in the case of the Titanic but not the Lusitania, arguably because the latter ship sunk more quickly and with more panic.

In many other settings, especially where dying is non-immediate or stochastic, the market chooses the auction method.  Think of the market for pharmaceuticals.  In the absence of government subsidy, you have to buy the drugs and there is not always price discrimination in favor of women and children.  Also consider allocation procedures for kidneys, hospital rules for triage, and the sale and resale of fresh water during cholera epidemics, among other scenarios.  What's striking is how many different allocation procedures markets use, depending on context. 

Per capita gdp in Belarus

I am correcting the mistake in the previous post, here is a range of estimates from $5k up through $12k.  The point remains that a country, especially a European country with free and wealthy nearby neighbors, should not be content with the lot of Belarus.  My apologies for the slip-up.

Addendum: As Blackadder notes, in terms of the Satisfaction with Life Index, they are near the very bottom.

The problem

Via Bob Cottrell:

"This is the place," he says. "The economy is booming and there's a real vibe. My son and I went to Ukraine recently and everyone was saying to us: 'Can we have the Belarus president in charge here for a year?'"

It's not difficult to see why. Unlike Ukraine and Russia, Belarus's economy is not dominated by billionaire oligarchs. There is no underclass: according to UN figures, Belarus has one of the lowest levels of social inequality in the world. Lukashenko wins elections not through fear, but because he has delivered social protection and rising standards of living. Growth now stands at 7 per cent.

The danger, some feel, is that a move towards a more market-oriented economy will destroy these achievements, and leave Belarusians sharing the same bitter-sweet jokes as their fellow eastern Europeans.

The full article is here.  But look here for per capita income:

Belarus: $1248.60 per person (update: correction here)

If you want proof that F.A. Hayek is a brilliant and important thinker, there it is.  On the brighter side, not everyone lives in Belarus.