The 19th century was truly bad for Mexico and for Mexicans
From an international perspective, Mexicans' height in the mid-eighteenth century was "not too short"…The declining trend over the second half of the eighteenth century was nothin exceptional in international perspective either. The early nineteenth century, however, was a watershed as the trends diverged: height recovered or stagnated in France, Spain, and other countries, but it continued to decline in Mexico: by the 1830s, Mexicans had finally become "too short." …I have proposed that population growth, and more frequent El Niño events, and real grain prices reduced the availability of food and had a likely detrimental effect on living standards.
That is from an essay by AmÃlcar Challú, from the new and excellent book Living Standards in Latin American History: Height, Welfare, and Development, 1750-2000, edited by Ricardo D. Salvadore, John H. Coatsworth, and AmÃlcar Challú.
Assorted links
1. Worst science reporting in some time.
2. Honey buns as a medium of exchange in prison.
3. Real wages for those who are reemploying.
4. Haiti's Iron Market to reopen, but only five percent of the earthquake rubble has been cleared away.
5. Does oxytocin make you mean and nasty toward the outgroup?
An Economist among the Bounty Hunters
Andrew Luster had it all: a multimillion-dollar trust fund, good looks, and a bachelor pad just off the beach in Mussel Shoals, California. Luster, the great-grandson of cosmetics legend Max Factor, spent his days surfing and his nights cruising the clubs. His life would have been sad but unremarkable if he had not had a fetish for sex with unconscious women. When one woman alleged rape, Luster claimed mutual consent, but the videotapes the police discovered when they searched his home told a different story. Eventually, more than 10 women came forward, and he was convicted of 20 counts of rape and sentenced to 124 years in prison. There was only one problem. Luster could not be found….
That is the opening to my piece, The Bounty Hunter's Pursuit of Justice, in the latest issue of The Wilson Quarterly. I discuss bounty hunters, the bail bond industry and my own adventures bounty hunting in Baltimore.
The minimum wage in China
Minimum Wage Impacts in China: Estimates from a Prespecified Research Design, 2000-2007
Jing Wang & Morley Gunderson
Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming
Abstract:
We use a prespecified research design to estimate the employment effect of minimum wages in China over the period 2000 to 2007. Our results are consistent with theoretical expectations and institutional realities of Chinese labor markets. These include: negative employment effects in slower growing regions; larger negative effects in non-state-owned organizations that tend to be more responsive to market pressures; much larger lagged effects reflecting the time needed for adjustments to occur; no adverse employment effects in the prosperous and growing Eastern region; and a positive employment effect in state-owned enterprises in the East – consistent with monopsonistic behavior.
That is from National Affairs.
Do economists need a code of ethics?
Here is an Economist symposium on the topic, including David Laibson, Kotlikoff, John Makin, and others. My contribution is adapted from my earlier blog post on the topic.
The Doctor Might See You Now
That's the title of a new paper by Craig Garthwaite of Northwestern. The abstract is this:
In the United States, public health insurance programs cover over 90 million individuals. Changes in the scope of these programs potentially can have large effects on physician behavior. This study finds that following the implementation of the State Children’s Health Insurance program, physicians decreased the number of hours spent with patients, but increased participation in the expanded program. Suggestive evidence is found that this decrease in hours was achieved through shorter office visits. These results are consistent with the predictions from a mixed economy model and provide evidence of the potential effects of recently passed public insurance expansions.
In other words, whether you favor ACA or not, the supply side constraints are starting to bite.
Assorted links
2. Spending another $100 on classical music. Here was his first installment. Both are from Ionarts, one of my favorite blogs.
3. My tweet on political violence.
4. We would rather be wasteful than feel wasteful.
6. Muslim terrorists in Europe: not what you think.
Important 2010 movies that weren’t released in most of the USA
These are the ones that are popping up most often on the "Best of 2010" lists, although some of them have earlier formal release dates, often because of Cannes. Most of these have been shown only in New York and Los Angeles, but they all are likely to appear on Netflix and some are there already.
1. Valhalla Rising, an English-language but Danish production about early Scandinavian visitors to the New World. It's violent and arty at the same time and it was one of my favorite movies of the year.
2. Vengeance: a good mix of French noir and Hong Kong action drama, with a dose of Memento, starring Johnny Halladay and set in Hong Kong and Macau.
3. Everyone Else (Alle Anderen): A German chronicle of a dysfunctional relationship between two young people on vacation, standing in for a story about Germany itself. It asks whether the intelligent, indecisive Germans are simply aspiring to become thoughtless jerks. A strong film, with a dose of Roissy.
The ones I have not seen (not yet on Netflix) are:
4. Enter the Void, French, bombastic, receives very mixed reviews.
5. The Strange Case of Angelica, Portuguese, by a 102-year-old director. I am likely to see this movie today.
6. Vincere, a Mussolini love story, has that been done before?
7. No One Knows About Persian Cats: The rock scene in Iran, by Bahman Ghobadi, who did the excellent "A Time for Drunken Horses."
8. Monsters: Northern Mexico, immigration, and visiting space aliens in a UK production; most people seem to like this one.
9. Secret Sunshine: A long Korean drama from 2007, which receives very strong reviews.
Explaining France, a reader request
France. Explain
By which I mean this: relying solely on prejudice and snippets of information, it would seem to me that France should be an economic backwater. The rate of taxation, cost of labor, early pension age, large public sector, high welfare payments, etc., none of this suggests a highly dynamic and performative economy fit for the 21st century. Certainly, it would seem, nobody would use France as a model for restructuring their economy, but the country does seem to emerge from each crisis more or less unscathed, and remains highly prosperous, with an admirable quality of life. Why is this? What are they doing right? Are they just lucky? Or (more likely) am I just poorly informed?
In all fairness, previous talk of a "Franco-German economic alliance" has dwindled and Germany is now seen as the key to EU financial decision-making. And France has gone from the world's number one cultural power to a minor player. Still, the French economy has held up relatively well. A few points:
1. The French elite work very hard and are educated very well.
2. Contrary to stereotype, France has arguably the strongest work ethic in the world. Given the rates of taxation, and the difficulty of being fired, most people still do a fair amount of work and they do it fairly well. If that's not a work ethic, what is?
3. Esteem and approbation are especially important in France, as incentives. This is one reason, not always voiced as such, why immigration in such an issue there. It breaks down prevailing forms of status competition.
4. France has been well-positioned to benefit from the growth and economic integration of Europe. The more open the economy, the less domestic economic policy matters.
5. The French are very smart and able, and have been so for a long time. You'll note that a wide variety of French companies, whether Dannon or Carrefour, do well around the world. The French are preeminent globalizers.
6. The foreigners' view of France, and its charm, would be very different if all of the country's buildings dated from after World War II.
7. The French are the very best, and wisest, consumers in the entire world, whether it be for clothing, music, food, or for that matter Hollywood movies and American blues and jazz. The French government tries to influence this activity, or put up some nominal protectionist measures, but for the most part this French specialty and strength remains unregulated. It helps account for the very high living standard there.
8. If you see a "World Music" recording from a French record label, buy it.
Personally, what I find most distressing about France is the limited number of dimensions for status competition. Very often there is one right way to do things, to dress, and so on. But that's also part of what makes the place work.
*The Price of Everything: Solving the Mystery of Why We Pay What We Do*
That's Eduardo Porter's new book, a behavioral economics treatment of how prices are set. Recommended. I'll be at the book party tonight, look for me if you'll be there too.
Should we subsidize or tax research into time travel?
Treat this as a balanced budget question, so it's not about fiscal policy. Alternatively, imagine yourself as a benevolent philanthropist: should you support this area of research if you can do so as a free lunch? Or should you try to hinder it?
I believe no one understands the underlying science much at all. But there is some chance that the old science fiction movies are correct and that by time-traveling you alter the course of history, thereby obliterating the universe we used to have. I'll count that as a net negative, while noting there is some chance we end up with a better universe.
On the plus side, the human race will die out anyway. Time travel seems to yield a fairly safe haven. As disaster approaches, keep going back in time a few days, or decades, and that asteroid will never hit you. This is especially appealing if you are transporting back a body (upload?) which is programmed to be more or less immortal and you can take the technology with you, so as to keep on going back as time progresses.
On one side: immortal life for many of the last humans and thus immortality for the human race. And with time they may learn how to thwart the asteriod. On the other side: some probability of swapping universes.
So should we subsidize or tax research into time travel?
Markets in everything China fact of the day
With more Chinese people getting behind the wheel every day, traffic jams are a major headache in most cities but the gridlock has become an opportunity for some entrepreneurs who are offering an escape route – for a price.
Drivers who get stuck in traffic in some cities can now get on their mobile phones and call for a substitute to take their cars to their destinations while the frustrated drivers are whisked away on the back of a motorcycle.
Here is more and for the pointer I thank Serkan Kara.
Do falling prices make us complacent?
Tim Harford writes:
…in a competitive market, wholesale price increases will be passed through to consumers promptly. But the “feather” is more ticklish, because the same argument should work in reverse, and so wholesale price falls ought to be passed on just as quickly. That means that markets are less competitive when prices are falling than when they are rising – a rather baffling suggestion.
A plausible explanation comes from Matthew Lewis, an economist at Ohio State University: falling prices make us complacent, while rises bring out the bargain hunter inside us, even when there are no bargains to be had.
As long as the price of a product is a little lower today than yesterday, we relax. We assume there’s no need to shop around. Retailers then take their sweet time cutting prices, knowing that we consumers are immensely relaxed, addled by the fact that at least prices are moving in the right direction. Paradoxically, their profits may be higher when prices are falling than when they are rising.
The culture that is Texas
Some members of the Capitol press corps took a 10-hour concealed handgun safety and shooting class this week – an exercise less about getting a weapon than getting into the Capitol.
Visitors now must pass through metal detectors, virtually guaranteeing delays. But there's an express lane for people with a concealed handgun permit.
The theory, apparently, is that people licensed to pack heat have undergone a thorough background check and can be waved right through.
So in the name of journalism, reporters covering the Legislature who must get into Capitol daily – sometimes several times a day – took the weapons course Thursday.
It took place outside of Austin at the hunting superstore Cabela's, a sort of saturnalia of stuffed animals, food dehydrators and camo gear.
Here is more, interesting throughout ("In Texas, the martial arts of choice is the handgun," he said. "If we were in the Philippines, I'd be teaching you a stick."), and I thank Derek Mahlburg for the pointer.
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