Response to Tyler on the Fed
Tyler's Case for the Fed (see below) has solidified my judgment that the case for the Fed is surprisingly weak. I will draw out some of Tyler's comments.
I view 1929-1932 as a better illustration of "a world without a Fed" than "a world with a Fed," even though of course we had a Fed then.
I have learnt that the best response to this kind of reasoning is to say "please pass the nam tok, Tyrone" and move on. Be forewarned.
The Fed made the recent crisis much better than it otherwise would have been. Without a Fed, we would have experienced something more like the Great Depression, including a frozen payments system.
It's wrong to evaluate a big institution like the Fed by assuming a world in which everything else is exactly the same, except for the Fed's absence. Tyler does a lot of this in his post but I am not enamored of this style of reasoning. This is why we need pre and post-Fed history. Pre and post-comparisons are one of the few methods we have for understanding how entirely different institutional structures perform in equilibrium (looking at countries without a central bank is another possibility). Pre and post-comparisons have all kinds of problems, since other things are changing, but the facts do at least put some constraints on imagination.
By the way, as the Miron paper I linked to shows, comparing just the 25 years before and after the Fed (even if you exclude GD) also suggests that the Fed reduced stability.
Tyler says the Fed has been getting better. Ok, but that also illustrates the weakness of Tyler's approach. After 100 years we would have expected alternative institutions to have also gotten better.
In the 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, I see the Fed as bringing improvements, of unknown magnitude.
Tyler gives us his informed opinion but it's long on opinion and short on information. Would it be possible to be more vague? "Improvements"? Compared to what? Compared to the Fed in the 1970s? Unknown magnitude? As I said, Tyler's case for the Fed leaves me more solidified in my judgment that the case is weak. I will let the Straussians ponder that more.
Historically central banks have been essential in helping nations fight major wars. The world's preeminent military power simply will have a Fed, for the same reason that it has lots of nuclear weapons.
I agree with this entirely. Governments want central banks because they help to fuel war. Historically, this is why central banks were created.
More generally, both Fed and Treasury are usually, in relative terms, voices of economic reason within government, even if they're not everything you wish them to be. It is arguably counterproductive to lower their status. Currently, the relevant alternative is a totally politicized Fed, not no Fed at all;
Like the points Tyler makes in the beginning of his post about who does or does not support deposit insurance this is sociology, irrelevant to the fundamental question of evaluation.
Moreover, as I pointed out earlier the case for "independent" central banks is also weak; central banks are always politicized, only the interest groups change.
What is the case for the Fed?
Alex asks this question. I am not so enamored of the pre- and post-Fed macroeconomic comparisons. Presumably the Fed advocate also favors deposit insurance and active exercise of the lender of last resort function. Furthermore most Fed advocates today do not want a gold standard, in part because it ties the hands of the Fed in a crisis. I view 1929-1932 as a better illustration of the workings of "a world without a Fed" than "a world with a Fed," even though of course we had a Fed then. If you take the relevant division to be "before and after WWII," the Fed looks pretty good.
It's also the case that the 19th century had much less interconnected leverage than today's world (not only because of the absence of a Fed) and that agricultural productivity was a much bigger determinant of overall volatility.
I see the historical ledger as follows:
1. The Fed made 1979-1982, and the 1970s in general, much worse than they had to be, and for no good reason. Count that as a strike against the Fed.
2. The Fed made the recent crisis much better than it otherwise would have been. Without a Fed, we would have experienced something akin to a Great Depression, including a frozen payments system.
2b. If you wish to give the recent crisis an anti-Fed spin, you can argue that if previous bailouts had not occurred, we might have avoided the high levels of leverage circa 2006 and thus avoided such a major crash. We would have had one or two big recessions earlier on, however. More to the point, I believe that Congress would have done earlier bailouts; after all, that is what just happened in Ireland and TARP was Congress in any case. What is the point of going that route? People think of the gold standard as fetters on the Fed, but I think of the Fed as an excuse for Congress to step back. Consult the wisdom of Garett Jones.
3. A "real Fed" would have made 1929-1932 much better than it was. In my view this #3 more than cancels out #2b. It is unrealistic to ask for a perfect or even a very good Fed, but it is not unrealistic or utopian to advocate "a Fed better than the 1929 Fed" and indeed we've had that ever since 1937.
4. In the 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, I see the Fed as bringing improvements, of unknown magnitude.
5. Historically central banks have been essential in helping nations fight major wars. The world's preeminent military power simply will have a Fed, for the same reason that it has lots of nuclear weapons.
6. More generally, both Fed and Treasury are usually, in relative terms, voices of economic reason within government, even if they're not everything you wish them to be. It is arguably counterproductive to lower their status. Currently, the relevant alternative is a totally politicized Fed, not no Fed at all; see #5.
Addendum: Bryan Caplan offers relevant comment.
Vero on Tyler on the capital gains tax
George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen disagrees with my assessment of the impact of the capital gains tax cut in 1997 on economic growth. He writes:
Why think the Capital gains tax cut gets the credit? With loss offsets in the tax code, isn’t the real rate on capital gains pretty low in any case? And the last decade had a relatively low (nominal, published) capital gains rate but not fantastic growth results. Also, keep in mind that the biggest effects of a cut (or hike) in capital gains rates are on old capital, not new capital. New capital (and other factors) drives growth. But the incidence of capital gains taxes on new capital is largely, through incidence, bounced onto consumers and labor.
I think he may be right. Darn. And then there is this:
Arguments that the maximum CGT tax rate affects economic growth are even more tenuous: Capital gains rates display no contemporaneous correlation with real GDP growth during the last 50 years. Although the effect of capital gains on economic growth may occur with a lag, Burman (1999) tests lags of up to five years and finds no statistically significant effect. Moreover, any effect is likely small as capital gains realizations have averaged about 3 percent of GDP since 1960 and have never been more than 7.5 percent.
What do you guys think? I’d be interested in any argument you may have against or in favor of this paragraph.
Vero’s post is here and do read the comments. I could have put my first point more precisely. I’d like to see an estimate of the real rather than nominal published rate of tax on capital gains. This would take into account loss offsets, carry-over, borrowing against the gains and deducting the interest payments, the option of holding until death, and a number of other factors. I mentioned only loss offsets, which do have a cap and thus one must distinguish between the average and the marginal capital gains rate. A lot of the measured and paid “capital gains tax” is actually slid in from what would otherwise be counted as ordinary income.
In any case, I regard this as one of the great myths of some schools of economics, namely the power of the capital gains tax rate. One can be agnostic on the matter (for one thing the timing of the tax cuts is endogenous), but the data do not show the rate to have a big influence on subsequent economic growth.
Who again is supposed to cut the rate of growth of Medicare spending?
A federal advisory committee said Wednesday that there was adequate evidence that the drug Provenge prolongs the lives of men with advanced prostate cancer, an endorsement that makes it more likely that Medicare will pay for the $93,000 treatment.
The Medicare Coverage Advisory Committee voted that it had “intermediate confidence” in the strength of the data that the drug, developed by Dendreon, improves survival.
The median result in trials is four extra months of life, and the link is here. If you think that four months of life are worth $93,000 of public money, that is a defensible position. But how many times can you apply that argument? I saw this treatment as a good candidate for allocation by market mechanisms, but I suppose that's not how it will be.
Who wants to cut government spending?
Via Kevin Drum, here is the report:
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) was asked to be an appropriator and said thanks, but no thanks. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a tea party favorite, turned down a shot at Appropriations, which controls all discretionary spending. So did conservatives like Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), an ambitious newcomer who will lead the influential Republican Study Committee.
….”Anybody who’s a Republican right now, come June, is going to be accused of hating seniors, hating education, hating children, hating clean air and probably hating the military and farmers, too,” said Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), a fiscal conservative who is lobbying to become chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. “So much of the work is going to be appropriations related. There’s going to be a lot of tough votes. So some people may want to shy away from the committee. I understand it.”
Kingston said he’s approached Bachmann, King and Westmoreland about the committee, and they all told him they weren’t interested.
In equilibrium, is this a sign that spending cuts are likely or unlikely?
Our health insurance future?
Here is an abstract from Sebastian Bauhoff:
This paper evaluates whether health plans in Germany's Social Health Insurance select on an easily observable predictor of risk: geography. To identify plan behavior separately from concurrent demand-side adverse selection, I implement a double-blind audit study in which plans are contacted by fictitious applicants from different locations. I find that plans are less likely to respond and follow-up with applicants from higher-cost regions, such as West Germany. The results suggest that supply-side selection may emerge even in heavily regulated insurance markets.
Here are relevant comments from Aaron Carroll:
Such insurance [on the exchanges] is going to have to come with restrictions. There might be network restrictions (such as seeing only certain providers). There might be gateways people don’t like. And there might be other rules in place that people don’t anticipate.
My conversations lead me to believe that many people are expecting that the plans offered in the exchanges will be Medicare-like in many ways. I feel like many people think they will have choice of doctor, choice of hospital, and the ability to dictate care. I’m not seeing how insurance companies will be able to offer such products at prices people can afford. As I talk to more and more people in the insurance industry, my thoughts seem confirmed.
Assorted links
Fear not hyperinflation
Labour department figures showed on Wednesday that the “core” consumer price index, measuring prices for US goods and services excluding food and energy, rose just 0.6 per cent year on year in October. That was weaker than economists had expected and marked the smallest such increase since records began in 1957.
The full story is here.
Has the Fed Been a Failure?
2013 will mark the 100th anniversary of the Fed. What have we got for our money? Surprisingly little. Inflation is clearly higher in the post-Fed era as is price variability. Deflation is lower, although there is nothing to fear from secular deflation. Barsky, Miron, Mankiw and Weil did find that the Fed dramatically reduced seasonal interest rate variability. I have always found this result puzzling–money is easy to store and seasons are predictable so why aren't interest rates smoothed without a very elastic money supply? In anycase, it's not obvious that smoother rates are better, although there could be small gains.
The big question, of course, is the variability of output. It used to be thought that output variability had decreased post-WW II but, as I pointed out in an earlier post, Romer's work (see also Miron) has shown that when measured on a consistent basis there is no substantial decline in volatility comparing pre-WW 1 to post-WW II. (Note that is generously giving the Fed a pass on the Great Depression!)
Selgin, Lastrapes and White have an excellent review of the empirical literature on inflation, output and other variables and conclude:
The Federal Reserve System has not lived up to its original promise. Early in its career, it presided over both the most severe inflation and the most severe (demand-induced) deflations in post-Civil War U.S. history. Since then, it has tended to err on the side of inflation, allowing the purchasing power of the U.S.dollar to deteriorate considerably. That deterioration has not been compensated for, to any substantial degree, by enhanced stability of real output. Although some early studies suggested otherwise, recent work suggests that there has been no substantial overall improvement in the volatility of real output since the end of World War II compared to before World War I. A genuine improvement did occur during the sub-period known as the "Great Moderation." But that improvement, besides having been temporary, appears to have been due mainly to factors other than improved monetary policy. Finally, the Fed cannot be credited with having reduced the frequency of banking panics or with having wielded its last-resort lending powers responsibly.
The Fed has surely been among the better of the central banks which would make it interesting to run a similiar analysis in other countries.
The Schelling-Stapledon model of the Octopus
Octopuses have large nervous systems, centered around relatively large brains. But more than half of their 500 million neurons are found in the arms themselves, Godfrey-Smith said. This raises the question of whether the arms have something like minds of their own. Though the question is controversial, there is some observational evidence indicating that it could be so, he said. When an octopus is in an unfamiliar tank with food in the middle, some arms seem to crowd into the corner seeking safety while others seem to pull the animal toward the food, Godfrey-Smith explained, as if the creature is literally of two minds about the situation.
The full story is here and for the pointer I thank Michelle Dawson.
One problem with charter cities
In Haiti there are riots against the UN, for fear that the aid mission brought cholera to the country:
…clashes between rioters and troops left two dead, dozens injured, foreigners in hiding and an awful question hanging in the tear-gassed air: did the UN mission, known as Minustah, bring cholera to Haiti?
The boys and men hurling rocks and bottles and shooting at foreign soldiers in the northern towns of Cap-Haitien and Hinche had no doubt. Nor did the residents of Port-au-Prince, who greeted UN convoys with sullen stares and insults.
The circumstantial evidence, which is not considered to be definitive, is this:
There had been no cholera here in living memory. The strain appears to be from south Asia. Soldiers from Nepal, which has cholera, moved into a base beside the Artibonite river in early October. The base has sanitation problems. A week later the river was contaminated and people in the area started vomiting and getting diarrhoea.
Plans A, B, and C for the stimulus
Brad DeLong comments. I offer one point: had the smart Obama advisors understood how much the economy would deteriorate, and told Obama as much, would Obama have let Congress write so much of the stimulus bill? I doubt it. That was a big mistake.
Furthermore the forecasts were wrong (in part) because they were not taking negative real shocks into account. The Keynesians are loathe to admit that, though they are keen to stress that the forecasts were wrong, which they were.
I am indebted to John Nye for a useful conversation on this topic.
The career of a paper mill writer (MIE)
From one of those people who writes other peoples' term papers for a living:
I do a lot of work for seminary students. I like seminary students. They seem so blissfully unaware of the inherent contradiction in paying somebody to help them cheat in courses that are largely about walking in the light of God and providing an ethical model for others to follow. I have been commissioned to write many a passionate condemnation of America's moral decay as exemplified by abortion, gay marriage, or the teaching of evolution. All in all, we may presume that clerical authorities see these as a greater threat than the plagiarism committed by the future frocked.
The article is interesting throughout. The fellow can write a 75-page paper in two days, has never visited a library for his work, and earns far more — $66k last year — than most ostensibly professional writers.
For the pointer I thank David B.
Insurance markets in everything
This is why a growing number of companies are buying so-called "disgrace insurance" to cover themselves in case a brand ambassador turns into a persona non grata.
The full story is here and for the pointer I thank Jeremy Davis.
Assorted links
1. The missing equation (cartoon).
2. Very bad science fiction and fantasy covers.
3. What will happen, and here is the book to come.
4. On the Fed's new monetary policy, and the surrounding political debates, it's worth rereading…me.