A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics and Synchronization of Cows
I've wondered about this plenty, though I was hoping for a simpler model:
We formulate a mathematical model for daily activities of a cow (eating, lying down, and standing) in terms of a piecewise affine dynamical system. We analyze the properties of this bovine dynamical system representing the single animal and develop an exact integrative form as a discrete-time mapping. We then couple multiple cow "oscillators" together to study synchrony and cooperation in cattle herds. We comment on the relevant biology and discuss extensions of our model. With this abstract approach, we not only investigate equations with interesting dynamics but also develop interesting biological predictions. In particular, our model illustrates that it is possible for cows to synchronize \emph{less} when the coupling is increased.
For the pointer I thank Michael F. Martin. Here is a claim that cows tend to align north-south. Here is further discussion.
Very good sentences
“Finance ministers in the eurozone might argue that they acted to save the euro, but in reality they acted to save national bond markets – and the euro is the fall guy,” says Steve Barrow at Standard Bank.
There is more of interest here.
Assorted links
1. Why did the ratings agencies mess up so badly?
2. Will Google save the news?, with cameos by Hal Varian.
3. Revealing 1984 interview with Paul and Linda McCartney.
4. Book with a price premium for a Kindle edition.
5. Markets in everything: "the splitter-uppers."
6. Washington Post profile of me and Create Your Own Economy.
The challenge
David Leonhardt spells it out clearly:
As a rough estimate, the government will need to find spending cuts and tax increases equal to 7 to 10 percent of G.D.P. The longer we wait, the bigger the cuts will need to be (because of the accumulating interest costs).
Seven percent of G.D.P. is about $1 trillion today. In concrete terms, Medicare’s entire budget is about $450 billion. The combined budgets of the Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation and Veterans Affairs Departments are less than $600 billion.
This is why fixing the budget through spending cuts alone, as Congressional Republicans say they favor, would be so hard.
Here is related commentary.
Istanbul bleg
Ash cloud permitting, I'll be there for five days in late May, on my way to Berlin. I have all the usual guidebooks, beyond that what should I do and where should I eat?
Your assistance is much appreciated.
Thoughts on the British election
1. It's amazing how quickly they form a new government. We could learn something from this.
2. Spending cuts will be necessary. (I am curious: what is the U.S. "progressive" take on this question. Is it admitted that spending cuts are necessary?)
3. Tax increases will be necessary. (Do U.S. commentators on the right admit this?)
4. Britain should avoid proportional representation. Classic parliamentary systems are good at making big changes in a hurry, when the major party knows which changes are needed, and that is Britain's current position. It's no accident that Thatcher and Roger Douglas — both of whom operated under extreme Westminster systems – were two of the major reformers in the late 20th century. PR gives too much power to minority parties in the ex post electoral bargain and it works best when there is extreme consensus at the social level, combined with the need to bring certain co-optable minorities into that consensus. Is that the way to think about UK politics today? I don't see it. Does any objective observer jump for joy when a "first past the post" election yields a hung Parliament and requires a coalition, as it does now? No, so why institutionalize this need with PR?
5. Do paragraphs like this make you feel better?: "William Hague, the new foreign secretary, said the coalition would be built on the personal chemistry of Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg, and said that Mr Clegg would not get a veto on government decisions. He told the BBC: “Their ability to resolve this situation bodes very well for all our ability to work together in government.”" They shouldn't.
Bob Frank and David Friedman on redistributive taxation and positional goods
Remember Bob Frank's argument that wage compression in private firms implies some (possibly libertarian) case for progressive taxation? Here is Frank's original column. Here is David Friedman's critique. Here is Frank's reply. (Angus, by the way, offers another critique.) So many issues are at stake, here is one of them:
He [Friedman] goes on to suggest that my argument implies that “the rich ought to be in favor of grinding down the poor…” These remarks betray a curiously dark conception of human nature. Being concerned about relative position surely does not imply taking pleasure in the knowledge that others are poor. If it did, middle-income people would spend long hours observing people in poor neighborhoods, thereby to boost their own self-esteem. That they don’t choose to spend their time this way doesn’t mean they don’t care about relative position.
What do people spend their time doing? To the extent I care about relative position, what do I do? I take actions to raise my preoccupation with areas I am good at, which is my version of spending long hours observing people in poor neighborhoods, yet without having to feel I am deliberately slumming, which would lower my self-esteem.
In this sense I think Frank should accept Friedman's attempted reductio. That said, I don't accept Friedman's claim that Frank's theory predicts that "the rich ought to be in favor of grinding down the poor." Subtle self-deception about one's own merits is, at least in today's America, a more effective recipe for generating utility. So I believe in the ubiquity of status-seeking, though I see the process as more positive-sum than Frank does. I can think my area of expertise is really important and you can think the same, without it being zero-sum.
That all said, what exactly is the problem with redistributive taxation? Why can't we, for Benthamite reasons, have two rates of twenty and thirty percent instead of one rate of twenty-five percent? Status-seeking or not?
I read this paragraph as best summarizing Frank's point of view:
High social rank, as noted, has substantial instrumental value, and low social rank entails substantial concrete costs, irrespective of whether people care about rank per se. Forcing a productive person to buy more social rank than he wants is objectionable, but the alternative is to give all of society’s most productive members a valuable asset free of charge. That asset would command a high price in the libertarian’s ideal world in which purely voluntary societies could form and dissolve at will. And since its value is a direct consequence of the substantial costs associated with low social rank, a society without redistributive taxation should strike libertarians as even more objectionable.
Here is David Friedman's final response.
Addendum: David Henderson comments.
Modern Principles: Italian Edition
This is the cover to the Italian edition of Modern Principles of Economics which will appear early in the new year. Vedere la mano invisibile. Capire il vostro mondo!
By the way, if you are in Italy this summer Tyler will be speaking at the Festival Economia 2010 in Trento, June 3-6. Vernon Smith, Diego Gambetta, Robert Putnam, and Alberto Alesina are also among the speakers and with concerts and movies it truly is a festival of economics! Bravo!
Of course, you can find out more about the english editions of Modern Principles of Economics here (micro, macro and combined).
Nevada fact of the day
Read the graph and weep. There's negative equity in about 70 percent of Nevada homes. All the states are ranked and Oklahoma seems to have the smallest problem in this regard.
Hat tip goes to Matt Yglesias.
Markets in Everything: Itching for Revenge
True sentences
Re-reading is much underrated. I've read The Spy Who Came in from the Cold once every five years since I was 15. I only started to understand it the third time.
That's from Malcolm Gladwell.
Are you an asker or a guesser?
Austin Frakt forwards me the following intriguing article. Here is one excerpt:
This terminology comes from a brilliant web posting by Andrea Donderi that's achieved minor cult status online. We are raised, the theory runs, in one of two cultures. In Ask culture, people grow up believing they can ask for anything – a favour, a pay rise– fully realising the answer may be no. In Guess culture, by contrast, you avoid "putting a request into words unless you're pretty sure the answer will be yes… A key skill is putting out delicate feelers. If you do this with enough subtlety, you won't have to make the request directly; you'll get an offer. Even then, the offer may be genuine or pro forma; it takes yet more skill and delicacy to discern whether you should accept."
Neither's "wrong", but when an Asker meets a Guesser, unpleasantness results. An Asker won't think it's rude to request two weeks in your spare room, but a Guess culture person will hear it as presumptuous and resent the agony involved in saying no. Your boss, asking for a project to be finished early, may be an overdemanding boor – or just an Asker, who's assuming you might decline. If you're a Guesser, you'll hear it as an expectation. This is a spectrum, not a dichotomy, and it explains cross-cultural awkwardnesses, too: Brits and Americans get discombobulated doing business in Japan, because it's a Guess culture, yet experience Russians as rude, because they're diehard Askers.
As for myself, I am an asker when it comes to information, but a guesser when it comes to making demands.
Where is economics headed?
Andrew Oswald has a new and interesting paper on what kinds of articles now get published. The piece starts off as follows:
When I was a PhD student, in Oxford in the late 1970s, I was taught nothing about the experimental method or how to weigh evidence, and indeed comparatively little about data. Consciously or subconsciously, we were encouraged to think of economics as a branch of (not very applied) mathematics. My first published paper relied on a fixed-point theorem; it contained no numbers. We were not exposed to, for example, any empirical findings from the psychology literature or the intellectual approach of researchers like epidemiologists.
Amazing, is it not? Turn to p.5 to see one of his basic counts, which puts experimental papers in the lead.
My podcast with Jerry Brito
You will find it here, Jerry summarizes it like this:
The conversation broadly centers on how the web allows us to find, distill, and sort information as never before, which has profoundly affected people’s consumption of culture and creation of their own economies. During the podcast Cowen touches on Lost and Battlestar Gallactica, the iPad, books, the future of the publishing industry, old and new media, Facebook, Twitter, ChatRoulette, and his favorite things on the internet.
Jerry's entire podcast series is here. Jerry's more professional blog is here. Jerry on music is here; he has the good sense to like M.I.A.
Avatar in China
Home owners in Hubei China protest the demolition of their homes. I raise my appreciation of Avatar a notch.
Hat tip Helen Yang.