The Swiss convexify the choice set

Could you really go for exactly one McDonald’s Chicken McNugget right about now? Well then, hop over to Switzerland and chow down!

Working with TBWA, local McD’s are tapping into a mathematics-themed meme by offering a single-McNugget selection to celebrate the menu staple’s 40th birthday.

Fans love to indulge in jokey theorems about the breaded bites of bliss. There’s also intense competition over who gets the final McNugget.

This campaign goofs on the whole numerical bit. Plus, per press materials, “Everyone gets the last nugget.”

…Each special Nug sells for 1.20 Swiss francs while supplies last. A regular box of four costs 4.80.

Here is the full story, via Benjamin Schneider.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Indicators of British stagnation.

2. The geopolitics of Godzilla.

3. On the effectiveness of different mental health interventions.

4. New documentary about North Korea.

5. History of the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.

6. How are global poverty stats revised if we consider the value of public goods?  Do consider Amory Gethins on the job market from Paris School of Economics.

7. Milei on social justice.

p.s. Do note the correction on today’s insider trading post, the main result probably is not correct.

Overcoming Baumol

One way to overcome the Baumol effect is to replace labor with capital. AI and robots are making that possible. Here’s a clip of the Carmelite Monks of Wyoming who are building a monastery in the Gothic style using CNC machines:

CNC machines and robots have unlocked the ability to relatively quickly carve the intense details of a Gothic church.  Ornate pieces that used to take months for a skilled carver, now can be accomplished in a matter of days.  Instead of cutting out the beauty, using the excuse that it takes too long, thus doesn’t fit into the budget, modern technology can be used to make true Gothic in all its beauty a reality again today.

Bring back the beauty!

Argentina projection of the day

Milei’s November election win — on a pledge to rapidly overhaul Argentina’s dysfunctional economy — has triggered a burst of market exuberance. The local Merval stock index is up 28 per cent, while prices for Argentina’s closely watched sovereign bonds maturing in 2030 — some of the most liquid — have risen 22 per cent to 37.2 cents on the dollar.

Here is more from Ciara Nugent of the FT.

Trading on terror

Recent scholarship shows that informed traders increasingly disguise trades in economically linked securities such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Linking that work to longstanding literature on financial markets’ reactions to military conflict, we document a significant spike in short selling in the principal Israeli-company ETF days before the October 7 Hamas attack. The short selling that day far exceeded the short selling that occurred during numerous other periods of crisis, including the recession following the financial crisis, the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, we identify increases in short selling before the attack in dozens of Israeli companies traded in Tel Aviv. For one Israeli company alone, 4.43 million new shares sold short over the September 14 to October 5 period yielded profits (or avoided losses) of 3.2 billion NIS on that additional short selling. Although we see no aggregate increase in shorting of Israeli companies on U.S. exchanges, we do identify a sharp and unusual increase, just before the attacks, in trading in risky short-dated options on these companies expiring just after the attacks. We identify similar patterns in the Israeli ETF at times when it was reported that Hamas was planning to execute a similar attack as in October. Our findings suggest that traders informed about the coming attacks profited from these tragic events, and consistent with prior literature we show that trading of this kind occurs in gaps in U.S. and international enforcement of legal prohibitions on informed trading. We contribute to the growing literature on trading related to geopolitical events and offer suggestions for policymakers concerned about profitable trading on the basis of information about coming military conflict.

That is from a new paper by Robert J. Jackson, Jr. and Joshua Mitts.  Via the excellent Jordan Schneider.

Debunked?: Possibly the study is quite wrong.

Blaise Pascal is underrated

Blaise Pascal, the French mathematician, physicist, and philosopher, is often credited with establishing one of the earliest public transport systems in Paris, known as the “carrosses à cinq sols” (five-sou carriages).

Historical accounts note that in 1662, Pascal received royal permission to establish a system of carriages that would operate on fixed routes within Paris. These horse-drawn carriages had designated stops where passengers could board or disembark, much like modern bus services. The fixed price for a trip was five sous, which made it affordable for a wider segment of the population, unlike private carriages which were reserved for the wealthy.

Pascal’s involvement in this venture was primarily as an investor and organizer; he collaborated with the Duke of Roannez and other associates to get the project off the ground. Though the service initially enjoyed royal patronage and was somewhat successful, it eventually declined and was abandoned a few years later, partly due to the socio-political context of the time and the competition from other modes of transport that were less regulated and could operate more flexibly.

While it did not last long, Pascal’s carriage system is often seen as a forerunner to modern public transport services due to its structured, route-based approach to moving people around a major city. It reflects an early understanding of the need for regular, accessible transportation for the urban populace.

That is from GPT-4.

Monday assorted links

1. Will 48 volts end up the standard for cars?

2. Is “Mom dread” a cultural problem?

3. Joshua Gans model on whether social governance can control harms from AGI.  And economists model optimal liability for AI.  Whether or not you agree with these particular arguments, it is amazing how the economists suddenly are cleaning up in this field.

4. “We also present new estimates that show that assortative mating was much stronger than previously estimated for the US.” (pre-1940)

5. “South Korea’s high-rise housing and low birthrates are closely related.”  True or not?

6. A Nicaraguan beauty queen coup?

Don’t Let the FDA Regulate Lab Tests!

I have been warning about the FDA’s power grab over lab developed tests. Lab developed tests have never been FDA regulated except briefly during the pandemic emergency when such regulation led to catastrophic consequences. Catastrophic consequences that had been predicted in advanced by Paul Clement and Lawrence Tribe. Despite this, for reasons I do not understand, the FDA plan is marching forward but many other people are starting to warn of dire consequences. Here, for example, is the executive summary from a letter by ARUP Laboratories, a non-profit enterprise of the University of Utah Department of Pathology:

ARUP urges the FDA to withdraw the proposed rule:

  • The FDA proposal will reduce, an in many cases eliminate, access to safe and essential testing services, particularly for patients with rare diseases.
  • Laboratory-developed tests are not devices as defined by the Medical Device Amendments of 1976, nor are clinical laboratories acting as manufacturers.
  • The FDA does not have the statutory authority to regulate laboratory-developed tests.
  • The FDA does not have the authority to regulate states, or state-owned entities. This is particularly relevant for the proposed rule regarding academic medical centers.
  • The FDA’s regulatory impact analysis is flawed in its design, source information, methods. and conclusions, and it systematically overestimates purported benefits of the proposed rule and dramatically underestimates its cost to society, the healthcare industry, and the ability to provide ongoing essential laboratory services to patients.
  • The proposed rule would significantly limit the ability of clinical laboratories to respond quickly to future pandemic, chemical, and/or radiologic public health threats.
  • The proposed rule would not be easily implementable, and it would create an insurmountable backlog of submissions that would hinder diagnostic innovation.
  • The proposed rule limits the practice of laboratory medicine.
  • The FDA has not evaluated less restrictive, easily administered alternatives, such as CLIA reform. This is particularly relevant for common test modifications used in most hospital and academic medical center settings.”

Here is the American Hospital Association:

…we strongly believe that the FDA should not apply its device regulations to hospital and health system LDTs. These tests are not devices; rather, they are diagnostic tools developed and used in the context of patient care. As such, regulating them using the device regulatory framework would have an unquestionably negative impact on patients’ access to essential testing. It would also disrupt medical innovation in a field demonstrating tremendous benefits to patients and providers.

Here is Mass General Brigham, a non-profit hospital system, affiliated with Harvard, and the largest hospital-based research enterprise in the United States:

…we are concerned with the heavy regulatory burden of this proposal. In implementing any regulatory structure, policymakers must consider if the benefits outweigh the costs. Given that FDA predicts 50 percent of tests would require premarket review, and 5 percent will require premarket approval, we have serious concerns that the costs may outweigh the benefits. Given that many LDTs are hospital-based and will never be commercialized, hospitals will have little incentive or ability to develop future LDTs under this proposed rule as they will have little to no opportunity to offset the costs associated with these new regulatory requirements. We are concerned that the regulatory burden could have significant implications on responsible innovation especially for LDTs targeting rare conditions, or public health emergencies.

Two U.S. public lab directors personally reached out to me to ask me amplify the warning. Consider it amplified!

Today is the last day for public comment. Get your comments in!

What I’ve been reading

1. Isabel Kershner, The Land of Hope and Fear: Israel’s Battle for its Inner Soul.  An interesting look at Israeli society on the eve of the current war.

2. Robert Darnton, The Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789.  Perhaps my expectations were too high with this one.  I don’t see anything wrong with it, and it is beautifully written.  But somehow it didn’t add much to my picture of those events, given I have read many other Darnton books.

3. Hawon Jung, Flowers of Fire: The Inside Story of South Korea’s Feminist Movement and What It Means for Women’s Rights Worldwide.  A good and sobering look at one side of Korean culture.  This is also (I hope) an especially effective book to hand to anti-feminist types, since the examples are not coded to standard left-wing vs. right wing American disputes.

4. Evan Thomas, Road to Surrender: Three Men and the Countdown to the End of World War II.  The real topic of this book is the decision to use the atomic bomb twice against Japan.  Riveting, and provides plenty of detail on the Japanese side, even if some of the interpretative choices are controversial.  The author also makes a good point about ending the war sooner, namely it saved a large number of Southeast Asian lives, arguably about 250,000 a month, due to the tyrannical Japanese occupation.

5. Paul Vallely, Philanthropy: from Aristotle to Zuckerberg.  Too much of this book is interior to my knowledge set, but for many people this is an excellent overview.  743 pp. of text, and it is pretty comprehensive.

6. Henrik Berggren and Lars Trägårdh, The Swedish Theory of Love: Individualism and Social Trust in Modern Sweden.  A fascinating book about how the Swedes pursue a kind of “statist individualism,” namely that they value personal independence very highly, and are happy to use state action to pursue that kind of freedom.  They don’t like being so obligated to help each other, thus enter a large welfare state.

As for a useful, and well-written text, there is Karol J. Borowiecki, Charles M. Gray, and James Heilbrun, The Economics of Art and Culture, now in its third edition.

Sunday assorted links

1. Recalibrating respect.  Fertility issues again.

2. Breakthroughs of 2023, an important thread.

3. Arnold Kling has built a GPT to grade your Op-Eds (requires ChatGPT plus, paid version).  Here is explanation and a chance to offer feedback.

4. Why is this Fiat missing a wheel?

5. Law secretly drafted by ChatGPT makes it onto the books (the polity that is Porto Alegre).  A likely improvement?

6. Way back when, before SCOTUS, William Rehnquist proposed marriage to Sandra Day O’Connor.  She said no.

7. The live touring of Kiss will be replaced by digital avatars.

South Korea projection of the day

…South Korea is distinctive in that it slipped into below-replacement territory in the 1980s but lately has been falling even more — dropping below one child per woman in 2018, to 0.8 after the pandemic, and now, in provisional data for both the second and third quarters of 2023, to just 0.7 births per woman.

It’s worth unpacking what that means. A country that sustained a birthrate at that level would have, for every 200 people in one generation, 70 people in the next one, a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. Run the experiment through a second generational turnover, and your original 200-person population falls below 25. Run it again, and you’re nearing the kind of population crash caused by the fictional superflu in Stephen King’s “The Stand.”

That is from Ross Douthat at the NYT.  We don’t want that lit-up map of North vs. South Korea to flip now, do we?

One Reason Why American Health Care is Expensive

tl/dr; Canadian woman is diagnosed with cancer, told she has  2 years to live at most, that she is not a candidate for surgery but would she like medical help committing suicide? She declines, comes to the United States, spends a lot of money, and is treated within weeks. Her health insurance is refusing to pay.

Global News: Ducluzeau said her family doctor told her that with this type of cancer, they usually do a procedure called HIPEC, which involves delivering high doses of chemotherapy into the abdomen to kill the cancer cells. But when she saw the consulting surgeon at the BC Cancer Agency in January, she said she was told she was not a candidate for surgery.

“Chemotherapy is not very effective with this type of cancer,” Ducluzeau said the surgeon told her. “It only works in about 50 per cent of the cases to slow it down. And you have a life span of what looks like to be two months to two years. And I suggest you talk to your family, get your affairs in order, talk to them about your wishes, which was indicating, you know, whether you want to have medically assisted dying or not.”

…Her brother contacted his mother-in-law who lives in Taiwan and she was able to get some advice from an oncologist there, after only waiting an hour. That oncologist confirmed that HIPEC was the treatment for Ducluzeau’s cancer. She set up a Zoom call with that oncologist later that week but then she found out about Dr. Armando Sardi at the Mercy Medical Center in Baltimore, Maryland.

“I had an appointment to speak with him via Zoom as well within a week and then also in Washington State,” she explained. “So there were two hospitals in Taiwan, one in Washington State and one in Baltimore that were able to take me as a patient.”

Ducluzeau decided to get treatment with Sardi in Baltimore.

…“I had to fly to California to get one of my diagnostic scans done there, a PET scan, because I wasn’t getting in here and I had to pay to have another CT scan done when I got to Baltimore because they couldn’t get it in time before I left,” she said.

Before she left, Ducluzeau said she called BC Cancer to ask how long it might be to see the oncologist was told it could be weeks, months, or longer, they had no idea.

“And I said, ‘Well, will it help if my doctor phones on my behalf?’ And they said, ‘no’. And my doctor submitted my referral again and still no word. No word at all from (BC Cancer) until after I flew to Baltimore, had my surgery and got home.”

With the help of a surgeon in Vancouver, Ducluzeau finally got a telephone appointment with an oncologist at BC Cancer for the middle of March – two-and-a-half months after receiving her diagnosis and the news that she may only have two months to two years to live.

…The BC Cancer Agency is refusing to provide documentation that would allow Ducluzeau to be reimbursed for the cost of out-of-country care, citing she did not proceed with additional investigations, such as a colonoscopy and laparoscopy.

“Universal healthcare really doesn’t exist,” Ducluzeau said. “My experience is it’s ‘do it yourself’ health care and GoFundMe health care.

Best movies of 2023

As usual, they are in the order I saw them (more or less), not ranked ordinally.  And sometimes there are reviews behind the link, sometimes by me:

Knock at the Cabin, theology all over this one.

Return to Seoul (NYT review).

John Wick 4, yup.

Polite Society

Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

You Hurt My Feelings

Incredible But True

Landscape with Invisible Hand

Bottoms, lesbian best friends in high school, not what you think.

The Creator

Joan Baez: I am a Noise, you don’t have to like her music to like the movie.

Holy Spider

Dream Scenario

May December, drenched in Bergman’s Persona.  And that is my pick for the best movie of the year.

The Killer (Netflix)

Napoleon

Godzilla Minus Zero.  I haven’t even seen this one yet, but I am confident in my judgment.

Updates will be made as is appropriate.  Overall, after some big dry spells, it was a pretty amazing year for movies.  Maybe not for Hollywood, but for movies.  Moviemakers are adapting well to the new circumstances and the new economics.  There are many more recommended selections I haven’t had the chance to sample yet, and maybe after I wake up I will put my list of those in the comments section.

What did you all like?

*Napoleon*

You can’t treat it as a normal movie with anything contextualized or explained.  Nope.  Rather think of it as a crazed male fantasy (the director’s?  Certainly not mine) about one particular way of living, presented large and vivid on the screen, with sex scenes too.  The fantasy doesn’t even have Napoleon as an especially smart guy, which of course he was.  The battles scenes for Austerlitz and Waterloo are some of the best ever filmed.  I can’t bring myself to call it “a good movie,” but it was better than expected and I was never tempted to leave.